I made similar predictions, albeit a lot more conservative. The below graph shows relative profitability from day 0 up to 120 days, for variable daily difficulty % increases. I copied the explanation from my thread here (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asics-and-future-profitability-237277).
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4104/pqor.png
The x-axis represents days, the y-axis represents daily difficulty increase in percentage, from 0.0% up to 2.0%. You can use the graph to visualize the decline from day to day in profitability for a given daily %difficulty increase. Start on a point on the top of the shape, above the green line (y-axis, x=0). Now travel parallel to the red line (increasing x, means increasing days). This will take you downwards into the 'valley'. Your profitability will decline, the speed of which depends on where you started above the green line (which daily %difficulty increase you chose). The only instance where your profitability does not decline is at the very edge of the figure, right above the red line, where y=0 (no difficulty increase). This of course will not happen. If you start from a point with small y (say y=0.1, means 0.1% daily difficulty increase) and travel along x, up to x=120 (120 days later), you will end up with P around 0.89, a relatively mild 11% decline in profit. However, if you do the same but start at the very edge of the graph, at y=2 (2% daily difficulty increase), you will end up in the corner nearest to the point of view, where P is only 0.095, a 90.5% decline in profit.
The OP's estimate is on average 5.8% per per day ((2.5+5+10)/3). I think this is extremely unrealistic considering the past daily growth hardly ever exceeded 2%. Despite this I also think ASICs really won't be as profitable as they might seem. Above all they are not really worth it considering the major unknowns in delivery time/durability and also Bitcoin's future, now that it has caught the attention of the main stream media, and more importantly mistrustful governments and shady unkown parties.
Topic: Insane Prediction for difficulty increases (Read 6498 times)
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point
correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly
Excuse me, but how did you think that we were projecting difficulty? Obviously estimating total hash rate, and total hash rate is estimated taking into account existing hardware and when it will be likely shipped/deployed.
Really don't get your point, you just stated the obvious?? To get difficulty from total hashrate you just need to apply an easy formula.
sorry for that…my point is that my formula seems to be easier for me, i dont need mining calculator, remember the THs/difficulty point... but its only my opinion no flame please im complicated person
The "mining calculator" is useful to a) include your costs (electricity, hardware) and b) factor the network hash rate increase (which equals to profitability decline in terms of constant BTC exchange rate), in order to project the results on a given timeframe.
You obviously do not need any online calculator to know how many BTC will generate X GH/s at X total network hashrate.
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point
correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly
Excuse me, but how did you think that we were projecting difficulty? Obviously estimating total hash rate, and total hash rate is estimated taking into account existing hardware and when it will be likely shipped/deployed.
Really don't get your point, you just stated the obvious?? To get difficulty from total hashrate you just need to apply an easy formula.
sorry for that…my point is that my formula seems to be easier for me, i dont need mining calculator, remember the THs/difficulty point... but its only my opinion no flame please im complicated person
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point
correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly
Excuse me, but how did you think that we were projecting difficulty? Obviously estimating total hash rate, and total hash rate is estimated taking into account existing hardware and when it will be likely shipped/deployed.
Really don't get your point, you just stated the obvious?? To get difficulty from total hashrate you just need to apply an easy formula.
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point
correct, but first you need to predict the H/s anyway, not difficlutly
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
Almost correct. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate. If you can predict global hash rate - then difficulty can be easily calculated from it.The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
1TH/s = 139696,25 difficulty point
Dont bother with difficulty guys.
Its very simple.
3600BTC/day global
so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs
100……..3600
0.001…….x
x=0.001*3600/100
x=0.036BTC/day
So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:
1000…….3600
0.350…….x
x=1.26BTC/day
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
Its very simple.
3600BTC/day global
so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs
100……..3600
0.001…….x
x=0.001*3600/100
x=0.036BTC/day
So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:
1000…….3600
0.350…….x
x=1.26BTC/day
Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.
The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
i originally posted this on the 7th/06
difficulty was about 15,000,000. I said in ten days it would increase by 20%.
15,000,000 x 1.2 = 18,000,000
the next leg would be 27/06/2013, estimated difficulty = 21,600,000
difficulty was about 15,000,000. I said in ten days it would increase by 20%.
15,000,000 x 1.2 = 18,000,000
the next leg would be 27/06/2013, estimated difficulty = 21,600,000
OP 's predication for today was off well off.....
sorry there was a typo. that should not have been a prediction for today but for next month. Actually it is spot on. I said that difficulty would increase every ten days and that percentage increase would double every 40 days hence the difficulty x 1.2 to the power of 4 in the calculations. than means i am factoring in 10 day increases in difficulty. At the moment we are in the 20% every ten days. by 16/07 will will enter the 40% increase phase. Then 40 days from then we will enter the 80% increase.
This entire thread is terribly depressing 
No kidding.I don't care about dollars. At all.
The more devices that mine bitcoins there are in the world, the better, regardless of how profitable they are in usd.
Also...
Kenya.
/unpopular opinion
Agree, anything parabolic is not sustainable, BTC price or Mining hashing power.
If you are right, then Asicminer is going to go bust unless they can kill off the competition somehow.
If you are right, then Asicminer is going to go bust unless they can kill off the competition somehow.
Correct - the problem with larger process and power hungry hardware is it's longevity. This is why BFL is still winning the race even though they've just started shipping.
Nothing in this thread is new information. We've always expected a spike in hash rate and difficulty upon asic release... followed by a low btc price because of miners cashing out to recoup investments.
The only real question is: after how many cycles will it end?
If you got a BFL single in the next 2 week - it would pay for itself in the first week. Even with new prices - and assuming BFL had stock on hand to ship - how many weeks before the difficulty gets so high that you don't think it's reasonable to buy more hardware. This is what we're dealing with.
But then - the weak hands are already buying inferior tech in a mad race to see who bankrupts themselves first. In some period of time (as the btc price crashes low and velocity slows way down) how many of them will turn of their miners - how many will sell them. (hint: you're seeing people trying to unload avalon hardware for insane markups already). How many will simply run the miners in the red... paying electricity out of pocket to accumulate bitcoin?
The only valid moves at this point are to buy as much 'most power friendly' asic gear as you can afford and mine with it until you've recouped all costs. That or just stop. The sooner the idiots figure this out the more stable the global hash-rate will become.
Comparing BFL orders to KNC is like comparing VW to Ferrari. BFL orders are pretty cheap, not everyone can order a 7000dollar unit, let alone 2 or more.
Also: Source? Where do you see that they will have that many orders? Not every order made translates to an order paid.
Just checked, my order number(apart from my preorder) was 1800ish. That was within the 890 paid orders. Now it's 2250ish. That's not 1800paid orders. They will get more orders once they deliver the first units, that is true, but I doubt they will order 100000 chips more without payment. So the next units will probably be more efficient and maybe even more powerful, but I don't think that they will be able to deliver them within weeks without chips.
AND even if they can, see post above. 400mil difficulty, still ROI in 220days. We are far from that. very far.
AND nobody cares for a quick ROI. If my unit can make me an ROI in 60 days, fine. If it takes 10 months, still fine.
I will make money off it as long as it is profitable, and that it will be a pretty long time after ROI.
AND if you check the Hashrate from the CPU to GPU switch, you will notice that it only rose about 30-45 times (depending on where you mark the swicth), and that was with way more affordable hardware. Most people bought their gpus one after the other.
Also: Source? Where do you see that they will have that many orders? Not every order made translates to an order paid.
Just checked, my order number(apart from my preorder) was 1800ish. That was within the 890 paid orders. Now it's 2250ish. That's not 1800paid orders. They will get more orders once they deliver the first units, that is true, but I doubt they will order 100000 chips more without payment. So the next units will probably be more efficient and maybe even more powerful, but I don't think that they will be able to deliver them within weeks without chips.
AND even if they can, see post above. 400mil difficulty, still ROI in 220days. We are far from that. very far.
AND nobody cares for a quick ROI. If my unit can make me an ROI in 60 days, fine. If it takes 10 months, still fine.
I will make money off it as long as it is profitable, and that it will be a pretty long time after ROI.
AND if you check the Hashrate from the CPU to GPU switch, you will notice that it only rose about 30-45 times (depending on where you mark the swicth), and that was with way more affordable hardware. Most people bought their gpus one after the other.
OP 's predication for today was off well off.....
Well, he said 1.3 billion difficulty by September, that's crazy and its unlikely.
Bitcoin was not designed to be easy for miners, it was designed to facilitate commercial transaction. Miners tend to forget this as they get wrapped up in their own little world. So do traders, as currency exchanges were never part of the Bitcoin design. Bitcoin is designed to be a pain for miners not a money tree.
True, in fact it seems to me people is overly optimistic when discussing difficulty and ROI for September, they might be blinded by the amazing returns had by Avalon batch 1 customers and ASIC miner shareholders,but the harsh truth is that we are returning very fast to the point in which ROI is hard to achieve and saving every penny on electricity/storage is crucial.
Just check the difficulty chart on bitcoin.sipa.be
OP 's predication for today was off well off.....
Bitcoin was not designed to be easy for miners, it was designed to facilitate commercial transaction. Miners tend to forget this as they get wrapped up in their own little world. So do traders, as currency exchanges were never part of the Bitcoin design. Bitcoin is designed to be a pain for miners not a money tree.
Bullshit. They have 890 orders paid, which we know of. Every order after that will be shipped in a first come first serve manner. Of course there are people with multiple orders. Zephyr has ordered 27 of them. So what? Not every order has multiple Jupiters in it, and not every oder is a Jupiter.
Again with the math: (why can't you people do that yourself?...) Let's say every order contains 2 Jupiter units (which it certainly does not.) and there are 1000 paid orders right now. 350x2x1000/1000=700th.
Atm there are 150th=19,3mil diff. Lets say until shipment there will be 400th.
400th+700th=1100th equals approx 141,5mil diff. That's ROI alone in around 60 days, depending on your power costs and with the btc for a 100 dollars.
So PLEASE tell me again how ROI is impossible.
Again with the math: (why can't you people do that yourself?...) Let's say every order contains 2 Jupiter units (which it certainly does not.) and there are 1000 paid orders right now. 350x2x1000/1000=700th.
Atm there are 150th=19,3mil diff. Lets say until shipment there will be 400th.
400th+700th=1100th equals approx 141,5mil diff. That's ROI alone in around 60 days, depending on your power costs and with the btc for a 100 dollars.
So PLEASE tell me again how ROI is impossible.
They will have 1,890 orders very soon and they claim to be able to ship sequentially hundreds units per day. And you can bet there are many multiple units orders (and with multiple i mean +10) that have not been advertised on the forum. Looking at BFL you will see how quickly orders can pile up but also how easily promises are broken.
The point is KnC plan seems to be to deploy much more than 700TH in September. Seems to be, because everything is pretty messy and unclear. What you can be sure about is that the time of easy and quick ROI is gone for good - quote me on that. This is going to get hyper competitive.
Bullshit. They have 890 orders paid, which we know of. Every order after that will be shipped in a first come first serve manner. Of course there are people with multiple orders. Zephyr has ordered 27 of them. So what? Not every order has multiple Jupiters in it, and not every oder is a Jupiter.
Again with the math: (why can't you people do that yourself?...) Let's say every order contains 2 Jupiter units (which it certainly does not.) and there are 1000 paid orders right now. 350x2x1000/1000=700th.
Atm there are 150th=19,3mil diff. Lets say until shipment there will be 400th.
400th+700th=1100th equals approx 141,5mil diff. That's ROI alone in around 60 days, depending on your power costs and with the btc for a 100 dollars.
So PLEASE tell me again how ROI is impossible.
And, before I have to read any more idle speculation:
One of these babies will still mine 156,6 Bitcoins in a year if the difficulty reaches 400million. That's 3108th or 8451 Jupiter units for you.
Again with the math: (why can't you people do that yourself?...) Let's say every order contains 2 Jupiter units (which it certainly does not.) and there are 1000 paid orders right now. 350x2x1000/1000=700th.
Atm there are 150th=19,3mil diff. Lets say until shipment there will be 400th.
400th+700th=1100th equals approx 141,5mil diff. That's ROI alone in around 60 days, depending on your power costs and with the btc for a 100 dollars.
So PLEASE tell me again how ROI is impossible.
And, before I have to read any more idle speculation:
One of these babies will still mine 156,6 Bitcoins in a year if the difficulty reaches 400million. That's 3108th or 8451 Jupiter units for you.
I really do not understand why some of you are considering for your calculations only 500 Jupiters (+350 GHs by KnCminer).
Wake up guys, KnC may be lying or overpromising, but they have said they will just ship hundreds of units sequentially, and that everybody ordering now will receive his units in September. The "batch 1" myth (a myth KnC itself spread) was debunked by Sam, who said on the record that they will just manufacture as many units as possible and deliver them at a rate of hundreds per day. In fact, I know for sure that they have some orders for +20 Jupiters and KnC committed to deliver all of them in September, regardless of the position in the preorder queue, etc.
They have currently more than 1,000 paid order, that figure is increasing, and you can bet that many of those orders are for multiple units, some of them for dozens of units. If KnC does what they say (shipping sequentially thousands of units in September), they will be pretty much killing any ROI possibility for all their customers.
Wake up guys, KnC may be lying or overpromising, but they have said they will just ship hundreds of units sequentially, and that everybody ordering now will receive his units in September. The "batch 1" myth (a myth KnC itself spread) was debunked by Sam, who said on the record that they will just manufacture as many units as possible and deliver them at a rate of hundreds per day. In fact, I know for sure that they have some orders for +20 Jupiters and KnC committed to deliver all of them in September, regardless of the position in the preorder queue, etc.
They have currently more than 1,000 paid order, that figure is increasing, and you can bet that many of those orders are for multiple units, some of them for dozens of units. If KnC does what they say (shipping sequentially thousands of units in September), they will be pretty much killing any ROI possibility for all their customers.
Link to Sam's on-the-record statement please?
All I found was:
Quote
The pre order number is the queue placement
After the 7 days are up we will match all the paid orders with the original preorders.
So yes the queue is already sorted.
The order numbers people have now are nothing to do with shipping queue placement
Which was just a quote of a quote, and out of context, but still seems different than your statement above.After the 7 days are up we will match all the paid orders with the original preorders.
So yes the queue is already sorted.
The order numbers people have now are nothing to do with shipping queue placement
It suggests they expect to follow the pre-order queue for shipping, and do not mention any expectation to throttle production capacity artificially.
It's buried in one of those hundred pages threads about KnC. He pretty much said that the fact they were producing in batches is a myth, they will produce as many units as orders they have, they will obviously respect the queue, but nevertheless they plan to manufacture and ship hundreds of units per day, which means that a) an order placed now is shipped in September, b) being in the first 500 will give you a couple of days advantage, that's all.
The 500 thing made sense as they needed that amount of preorders to make the project happen, but in no way means they will produce in batches.
All the above are promises and wishful thinking, but based on what KnC claims if we decide to count with them for our calculations we shouldn't expect hundreds of units but thousands of them. Which seems kinda worrying for their own customers.
I really do not understand why some of you are considering for your calculations only 500 Jupiters (+350 GHs by KnCminer).
Wake up guys, KnC may be lying or overpromising, but they have said they will just ship hundreds of units sequentially, and that everybody ordering now will receive his units in September. The "batch 1" myth (a myth KnC itself spread) was debunked by Sam, who said on the record that they will just manufacture as many units as possible and deliver them at a rate of hundreds per day. In fact, I know for sure that they have some orders for +20 Jupiters and KnC committed to deliver all of them in September, regardless of the position in the preorder queue, etc.
They have currently more than 1,000 paid order, that figure is increasing, and you can bet that many of those orders are for multiple units, some of them for dozens of units. If KnC does what they say (shipping sequentially thousands of units in September), they will be pretty much killing any ROI possibility for all their customers.
Wake up guys, KnC may be lying or overpromising, but they have said they will just ship hundreds of units sequentially, and that everybody ordering now will receive his units in September. The "batch 1" myth (a myth KnC itself spread) was debunked by Sam, who said on the record that they will just manufacture as many units as possible and deliver them at a rate of hundreds per day. In fact, I know for sure that they have some orders for +20 Jupiters and KnC committed to deliver all of them in September, regardless of the position in the preorder queue, etc.
They have currently more than 1,000 paid order, that figure is increasing, and you can bet that many of those orders are for multiple units, some of them for dozens of units. If KnC does what they say (shipping sequentially thousands of units in September), they will be pretty much killing any ROI possibility for all their customers.
Link to Sam's on-the-record statement please?
All I found was:
Quote
The pre order number is the queue placement
After the 7 days are up we will match all the paid orders with the original preorders.
So yes the queue is already sorted.
The order numbers people have now are nothing to do with shipping queue placement
Which was just a quote of a quote, and out of context, but still seems different than your statement above.After the 7 days are up we will match all the paid orders with the original preorders.
So yes the queue is already sorted.
The order numbers people have now are nothing to do with shipping queue placement
It suggests they expect to follow the pre-order queue for shipping, and do not mention any expectation to throttle production capacity artificially.
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