Topic: Insane Prediction for difficulty increases - page 2. (Read 6498 times)

I really do not understand why some of you are considering for your calculations only 500 Jupiters (+350 GHs by KnCminer).

Wake up guys, KnC may be lying or overpromising, but they have said they will just ship hundreds of units sequentially, and that everybody ordering now will receive his units in September. The "batch 1" myth (a myth KnC itself spread) was debunked by Sam, who said on the record that they will just manufacture as many units as possible and deliver them at a rate of hundreds per day.  In fact, I know for sure that they have some orders for +20 Jupiters and KnC committed to deliver all of them in September, regardless of the position in the preorder queue, etc.

They have currently more than 1,000 paid order, that figure is increasing, and you can bet that many of those orders are for multiple units, some of them for dozens of units. If KnC does what they say (shipping sequentially thousands of units in September), they will be pretty much killing any ROI possibility for all their customers.

Price may be more dependent on money flow rather than mining efficiency for the time being.

I am trying the wrap my head around how this would affect the market place. So much money is being rammed down the mining pipeline it just screams screw-job. I mean if the price tanks there will be an absolute ton of people with 20k computers that can make $40 a day. I laugh but that's pretty brutal. However assuming they paid in BTC they can just  buy the cost of the rig back in btc and go from there. The whole relationship between miner and price discovery mechanism is hard to figure out for this tired old brain but I keep thinking of a snake eating its own tail.

GPU and even CPU mining may be on the rise rather than on the decline.
Your assumption is that others also have to pay for power, environment, hardware, and etc in the same way that you do.
There exists a tremendous amount of unused computing power sitting idle in data centers with already sunk costs, and owned by corporations.
The amount of already paid for but unused computing power dwarfs the amount of ASICs.  
Corporate IT admins could be turning on mining.

This discussion is so pointless... There will be no insane difficulty jump to 1.000.000.000 or whatever....
The amount of TH for that would be insanely high; around 9600TH.
If you look at a decent graph you will see that the difficulty rise per day was at most 2,5% since july 12. If you take that as the worst case, which it pretty much is, you will have approx. 791.000.000 at 31/12/2013.
If you take the median, which is around 1,4-1,5%, you will have a difficulty of around 193.000.000 at the same date. I don't think 2,5 percent ís in any way realistic, so here you go.

Those who have large GPU farms that have already been paid off and who receive free electricity will still be mining.

The constant increase in difficulty from December onwards will make it harder for ASIC miners to turn a significant profit.

It may not yet but I'm already getting 30% of what I was just a few weeks ago.  In another 2-3 months someone running even 10 cards will be barely making anything (like .02-0.04BTC a day).  I think its a safe assumption. There is a MASSIVE amount of Avalon chips coming online.

How are you able to determine that GPU use is dropping from these statistics?

BFL and KNCminer accept USD

I'm just talking about currently no ASIC companies accept $ you have to buy them with BTC.  If your smart your lining up access to ASIC if possible.  GPU is already dropping really really quickly.

There are some assumptions built into this analysis that may not hold up.

1) The assumption that the mining is done by ASIC
2) The assumption that there is not free power and free computers (or spare power / spare computers) doing mining.

It is entirely possible that some corporation that has a lot of computers connected and under utilized in facilities with already sunk costs for power, HVAC, real estate, connectivity may have just decided that they want to make use of their spare devices for a very small marginal cost start using them to mine bitcoin.

If this were true, this could have the effect of reducing the BTC/$ rather than raising it.  This is because the mining could be done at such a low marginal cost that the cost per mined coin goes down rather than up.  Further a corp might not need to show a quarterly profit and see that as more important than any long term hold opportunity and have the incentive to sell all mined coins as they are generated.
The secondary effect of this is that ASIC purchases would slow, because they are not as profitable as they once were.

That this may become a more common trend until the ASIC prices and demand falls to a more manageable level.
It would not be a bad thing for Bitcoin, and may even help to entrench it into the existing business environments if this practice continues.

If (for example) someone at IBM, ATT, or Google thought it might be a good idea to make use of their extra systems siting in data centers and rolled out mining installations  to their computing centers globally, you could see a difficulty increase such as this in advance of new ASIC shipments.
Or consider that data center consolidation is an ongoing project, there could be a data center disconnection planned that is delayed for some reason, and enterprising engineers make use of that extra time to get some mining done.
There are many possibilities that exist outside the narrow assumptions that we make thinking that everyone is doing things just in the same way and under the same conditions as we may be doing them.

Think outside the box.
Cognitare Extra Buxum

For now most ASIC companies only accept BTC.  Now its nearly required to have ASIC to continue mining.  For this alone I feel the price is about to skyrocket in BTC/$ ratio.  A lot of peoples mining dropped so much they are going to be forced to buy (demand driving up) if they want ASIC.

This might be interesting for those who want to understand logic behind raise of difficulty:


Network hash power during year (values are taken as average in 5 days). Chart of difficulty per day would look exactly the same. 1TH/s = 139.698,39 difficulty points


Rough estimation of hashing power distribution between miners


Known hashing power of miners starting from 01/01/2013

followed...

BFL have around 400TH/s on their order books. Probably more as this list is inaccurate.  http://bfl.ptz.ro/ so your 2.5TH.s per day averaged increase by Sep should easily be achieved and more.

If we have a 15% growth until September i.e difficulty = ~54M or hashrate = ~392Th...we will need to add ~2.5Th per day to the network starting today. ...hopefully we will not see that. However....thats like ~7 Knc Jupiters per day, i.e ~525 junipers. From yesterday to today only on the Slush pool there was an increment of 4Th

This amount of jupiters are very plausible since they already have more than 800 orders (where 1 order is for example 27 Jupiters)...interesting times!!


excel made by brishtiteveja @ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjEbQ5LBKsAEdDYtajZTMi1Ua0ZkUXR0X0NKSnVaSXc#gid=0

It is exponential, but not on that period.
Moore's law is an exponential factor.
The current difficulty growth also may be transitory and due to other factors than ASICs.
Consider that there are large companies with many tens or even hundreds of thousands of computers that mostly sit idle.
If one or two of those devoted even unused CPU power, it could have such an effect.
Or animation studio render farms between movies with a room full of video rendering hardware + a bored admin and no worries about electricity.  Lots of other possibilities....
This also raises the notion that mining can grow even when it is not profitable under "normal" circumstances.

Totally agree. Everyone should understand that difficulty is directly proportional to total mining power. Every 1TH/s in mining network equals to 139.698,39 difficulty points, to be exact. For example - if network mining power will increase two times - then difficulty will increase two times too. New difficulty is based on average network hashing power during last two weeks. That's all you need to know about it

If difficulty increase would be exponential - that would require all ASIC miner developers to increase their miner production speed every two weeks by the same percent.
Basically, as soon as new mining device is developed and starts to mine - difficulty will grow too. If a lot of these devices are produced - then difficulty will grow rapidly until all devices are connected to network. Then difficulty growth speed will return to previous.

Current rapid increase is caused by some new mining device developer in arena. He has already added mining devices with total power ~40TH/s to network. (first 30 TH/s were added two weeks ago, and that was cause for big difficulty increase last time. And still continues to add devices to network even now). Anyway, next time difficulty will be around 19M (+21%) on 17th of June.

I can't mine anything at all now with my gaming computer.   I guess unless I have ASICs, or I will just keep what I have and wait for another coin.

Thanks for that! 
It seems difficult to reach that amount hashrate in place in ~75 days. It will imply 118Thash added daily starting today ....

PS: can you share how did you reach that value?