Topic: Insane Prediction for difficulty increases - page 4. (Read 6506 times)
Hijacking for a quick noob question; if no additional miners were added to the network, i.e we stayed at the current total hash rate. Would the difficulty still increase?
Its all just speculation at the moment. The difficulty might only be 200,000,000 by September in which case ASIC will still be profitable for quite some time.
This entire thread is terribly depressing 
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q is why we are going down in price. There are not enough people buying into bitcoin which is coupled with a consistent selling brings the price down. This will continue until supply and demand are equal which is roughly 1/10 of the peak price in April.
Hmm wonder if that's a delayed trend line it looks similar to the bitcoin crash
Parabolic bubble it's interesting
That means the next time the trendline goes up time for a Buy
Speculation comment
Regarding the difficulty that may be very possible
Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.
People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.
What's even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.
They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year
People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.
What's even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.
They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year
But by then we will only be able to get peoples hand me downs for reasonable cost. Current ASIC will likely take a long time to not be profitable but the big guys will keep upgrading and selling off. 1BTC/mo off 20TH is still profitable if the price is right.
Your living in fantasy world. All you have to do is take a look at the diff graphs and see the writing on the wall and that's nothing of what is yet to come . People will not want hand me downs if it won't make money.
Your what if scenarios of btc going up to be profitable is like me walking into the casino saying I'm going to win big.
The only winners are people in the know who have insider access to these devices before mainstream get them, and the people taking money for pre orders. The winners are also the ones offloading them before most people realise it won't make money.
The average person won't make money from mining by the end of the year in btc . Note in my posts I said by end of year.
That's just under 6 months , do the Maths, it's not rocket science .
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q is why we are going down in price. There are not enough people buying into bitcoin which is coupled with a consistent selling brings the price down. This will continue until supply and demand are equal which is roughly 1/10 of the peak price in April.
Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.
People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.
What's even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.
They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year
People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.
What's even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.
They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year
But by then we will only be able to get peoples hand me downs for reasonable cost. Current ASIC will likely take a long time to not be profitable but the big guys will keep upgrading and selling off. 1BTC/mo off 20TH is still profitable if the price is right.
I guess what people fail to realize is that mining is not a get rich quick ROI. Obviously the price of BTC is going down versus fiat ever since the crash and will continue to do so for atleast another month or two until it bottoms out around $30. All the people who bought miners will probably look for refunds (BFL) and while the difficulty will continue to increase quickly, it will probably still only be 100m in September, maybe less.
really? you think the price of BTC will continue going down? I have to say when i look at the chart it does look like it is in a downtrend, since it went parabolic and hit 200s but i don't know how effective chart analysis is for BTC/USD price. Are there any companies making litecoin FPGAs? that would be a good thing to get into now.
I guess what people fail to realize is that mining is not a get rich quick ROI. Obviously the price of BTC is going down versus fiat ever since the crash and will continue to do so for atleast another month or two until it bottoms out around $30. All the people who bought miners will probably look for refunds (BFL) and while the difficulty will continue to increase quickly, it will probably still only be 100m in September, maybe less.
Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.
People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.
What's even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.
They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year
People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.
What's even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.
They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year
Not insane at all.. my models have been at 67-75% difficulty increase every 1 month now for a while.
Recently, i've started using 75% in my calculations.
Recently, i've started using 75% in my calculations.
I hypothesize that difficulty increase will DOUBLE every 40 days from now until the market is flooded with ASICs
If we use this as a calculation for the difficulty rate in September we get:
15,000,000 x 1.20 ^ 4 = 31,104,000 (difficulty on 16/07/2013)
31,104,000 x 1.40 ^ 4 = 119,489,126 (difficulty on 26/08/2013)
119,489,126 x 1.80 ^ 4 = 1,254, 349,053 (difficulty on 1/09/2013)
These calculations presume that:
120 days till September
12 lots of 10
every 10 days difficulty increases
every 40 days that increase doubles
I hope i am wrong but at these levels even a 350Ghz miner in September wont really be a profitable ROI, even if the price of BTC was 350 USD
If we use this as a calculation for the difficulty rate in September we get:
15,000,000 x 1.20 ^ 4 = 31,104,000 (difficulty on 16/07/2013)
31,104,000 x 1.40 ^ 4 = 119,489,126 (difficulty on 26/08/2013)
119,489,126 x 1.80 ^ 4 = 1,254, 349,053 (difficulty on 1/09/2013)
These calculations presume that:
120 days till September
12 lots of 10
every 10 days difficulty increases
every 40 days that increase doubles
I hope i am wrong but at these levels even a 350Ghz miner in September wont really be a profitable ROI, even if the price of BTC was 350 USD
Jump to: