Topic: Investing in Mircea Popescu's Options Emporium - page 2. (Read 26162 times)

No, it does not. Of the > 100k contracts traded last month, the MPOE bot was a counterparty for about 75k.

So in the case where I have a CALL that I offer to sell and that gets purchased by another individual trader, does that volume appear in your +/- (bought/sold) numbers?

MPOE bought 7,100 CALL contracts. MPOE sold 12,312 CALL contracts. MPOE bought 23,764 PUT contracts. MPOE sold 32,472 PUT contracts.

Nice spreadsheet thing.

Could you describe what that breakdown is?

Does that refer to how many MPOE had to be the counterparty for versus both sides being private parties?  Or ... ended in the money, or?

Incidentally, monthly results summarized here:

 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdFBCN29xMEtJbEdMOXEyN2pWTllId2c

I did not understand how you manage your option positions from this post... anyway you should look at these pages

http://www.theoptionsguide.com/options-arbitrage.aspx

http://www.probabilityofsuccesstrading.com/?page_id=1235

http://www.probabilityofsuccesstrading.com/?page_id=1230

Andrew Vorobyov: http://polimedia.us/trilema/2012/sa-ne-jucam-de-a-investitiile-n-bitcoini/#comment-78745 here's how the thing works.

lol

How can you lose? Aren't you hedging your positions? Spreads are one kilometer wide...

August 2012 Results :

*******************
Operational results, MPOE
*******************

Overall trade 75`648 contracts, of which -12`312 +7`100 CALL ; -32`472 +23`764 PUT.¹

Revenue : 10`110.90263456 BTC, of which :
     *contract sales : 10`016.30636953 BTC
     *contract exercise : 94.59626503 BTC

Expenditure : 14`651.324164215 BTC, of which :
     *contracts bought : 11`562.32029052 BTC
     *exercise : 2`622.33420727 BTC
     *capital expenses : 466.66966642 BTC (9`333.58 × 4.9999%)

Loss : -4`540.42152965 BTC

*******************
Operational results, MPEx
*******************

Overall trade : 155`832.72262277 BTC, of which :
     *Revenue from sales fee : 309.03038447 BTC (154`515.19223830 BTC total trade volume)
     *Revenue from new accounts : 940 BTC²
     *Revenue from consultancy and other services : 68.50 BTC

Expenditure (CSR) : 10 BTC³

Profit : 1`307.53038447 BTC

*******************
Shareholders table
*******************

Total shares : 1`000`000`000, of which :

1. Mircea Popescu : 980`770`396 shares,
     2. MPOE.ETF : 4`077`552 shares,
     3. Others : 15`152`052 shares.

Total dividend : 1`239.03038447 BTC.

******************
Bondholders table
******************

Total capital : 9`333.58 BTC, of which :
     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.9999%
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.9999%
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.9999%
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC @ 4.9999%
     5. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1918.33834257 BTC @ 4.9999%
     6. 1Efr7txsbxMu2U5oTnFu4tDHVbVPvRAyBT, 1400.00000888 BTC @ 4.9999%
     7. 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 2900.00000888 BTC @ 4.9999%
     8. 1D7YtrxnyK3ug3Rvp9jX66T8kVzWww9Jr8, 1886.34671031 BTC @ 4.9999%

To cover : 4`540.42152965 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.48646087.

MPBOR valid 1 through 28 September : 4.9999%.

Final bondholder list :
     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 48.54505081 BTC
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 48.54505081 BTC
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 48.54505081 BTC
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 485.45046937 BTC
     5. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 985.14178622 BTC @ 4.975%
     6. 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 432.67672807 BTC @ 4.99%
     7. 1Efr7txsbxMu2U5oTnFu4tDHVbVPvRAyBT, 718.95477396 BTC @ 4.9999%
     8. 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 1489.26345546 BTC @ 4.9999%
     9. 1D7YtrxnyK3ug3Rvp9jX66T8kVzWww9Jr8, 968.71283151 BTC @ 4.9999%
     10. Mircea Popescu (creditor of last resort)

*******************
Miscellaneous
*******************

I. MPOE suffered what might very well be insider trading.

A good amount of CALLs were bought in July (over 1k), added to which a good amount bought since (over 2k) as well as a good amount of in the money PUTs were sold short (P180T, P190T, P200T, in total over 5k). The CALLs were executed shortly before the closure announcement of Bitcoin Savings and Trust. The PUTs were rebought on the market soon after the announcement, purchases continuing to the reversal of the position (the bot went from +5k to -5k on its book on those three MPSICs). The total losses resulting from these operations are roughly 4`500 BTC, which pretty much cover the month’s poor results.

It’s unclear to me what would be the appropiate steps, either to establish the truth on the matter (the suspicion might in fact be unwarranted) or to guard against similar occurences in the future. It seems to me improbable that the preventing of market manipulation can be accomplished by one Mircea Popescu, or even by any one entity in a market made out of pseudonymous or anonymous participants. There’s the possibly reasonable hope that as the market matures such movements become impossible, especially as the various amateurs with pretention of “knowing finance” who are capable of throwing hundreds of thousands of BTCs into pyramid schemes smarten up or go bankrupt.

While painful, the current month is also replete with records, and rather plainly demonstrates the are the limits of exposure for MPOE financing bonds. In July, a month during which BTC went pretty much linearly from ~6.5 to ~9.5 (+46%) MPOE stayed above water, realising net profits of ~870 BTC. In August, during which BTC went from ~9.5 to ~15.5 (+63%) and then back to ~10.5 (-32%) MPOE suffered losses equal to approximately half its trading capital (as computed by the new rules, introduced back in April), thus confirming the evaluations made at the begining of the year with regards to the worst case scenario.

II. MPEx proved its value this month - it is the first time since it was acquired that it generates larger revenue than MPOE. A significant group of newly registered users (especially significant with regards to their activity, this metric nearly doubling the current month) as well as the sales volume increase brought significant sums to investors.

Considering that the main competitor managed a total volume since its launch (in January) of approximately 250`000 BTC (roughly 30k a month) while MPEx has had transactions well in excess of 150`000 BTC this month alone we can conclude that MPEx currently holds a large majority of the BTC denominated financial instruments market.

It’s to be expected we find ourselves at a point of inflection. The low transaction costs, the significant volume, notable security, speed and availability advantages, various other strong points (free transfers, margin etc) are likely to convince pretty much all investors to open accounts in the coming months. As such we expect increasing revenue for the future.

III. F.PURE.SYNTH is withdrawn due to lack of interest shown by investors. All outstanding shares were rebought, the current float being 0.

IV. In April MPEx announced that it was looking for a market-maker for either options or futures based on difficulty. The third party selected to fulfill this role has offered options according to the specifications laid out then, without interruption until today.

Unfortunately, a string of losing transactions in the current month put that third party in the position of not being able to continue offering these options in the future. All holders have received their due BTC, but starting with September O.HASH will no longer be available on MPEx.

We are open to bringing this or a similar product back to the market, with the caveat that the correct valuation thereof has proven in practice to be more difficult than it seemed in theory.

V. To allow for a fairer pricing of risk, starting in September the limit on bonds interest is lifted (it was 2% at launch and then 5% starting in May).

Mircea Popescu will continue to supplement any capital shortfall, at an interest equal to the last bond but not less than the MPBOR for the previous month.

Due to this modification, all investors are given a two day grace period (until 23:59:59 GMT on the 2nd of September), during which they can withdraw or add new sums which will be considered for the current month (September).

---------

1) Contracts traded between third parties without MPOE's participation reached significant volume this month for the first time (10`628 O.BTCUSD.P190T and 17300 O.BTCUSD.P200N). This means the total number of traded contracts on MPEx during August was a record 103`576.

2) About a third of new registrations this month took place after the announcement of the S.DICE IPO.

3) 5 BTC to the Open Transactions project, 5 BTC to Azelphur to encourage quote stream bot development.
[/list]

July 2012 Results :

*******************
Operational results, MPOE
*******************

Overall trade 13`608 contracts, of which 5`455 CALL ; 8`153 PUT.

Revenue : 1`990.45529666 BTC, of which :
     *contract sales : 1`965.34657637 BTC
     *contract exercise : 25.10872029 BTC

Expenditure : 1`120.59435595 BTC, of which :
     *contracts bought : 14.74171324 BTC
     *exercise : 975.32207521 BTC
     *capital expenses : 130.53056750 BTC (2`623.73 × 4.975%)

Profit : 869.86094071 BTC

*******************
Operational results, MPEx
*******************

Overall trade : 19`332.34289238 BTC
Revenue from sales fee : 38.66468578 BTC
Revenue from new accounts : 20 BTC

Profit : 58.66468578 BTC
June Report : 140.14489677 BTC

*******************
Shareholders table
*******************

Total shares : 1`000`000`000, of which :
     1. Mircea Popescu : 981`865`443 shares,
     2. MPOE.ETF : 4`073`981 shares,
     3. Third parties : 14`060`576 shares.

Total dividend : 1`068.67052326 BTC.

******************
Bondholders table
******************

Total capital : 2`623.73 BTC, of which :
     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.975%
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.975%
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.975%
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC @ 4.975%
     5. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1394.83507064 BTC @ 4.975%

To cover : 0 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.

MPBOR valid 27 July - 31 August : 4.975%.

Final bondholder list :

     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC
     5. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1918.33834257 BTC @ 4.975%
     6. 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 432.67672807 BTC @ 4.99%
     7. Mircea Popescu (last recourse), 5%

******************
Miscellaneous
******************
I.

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Your dividend payment for S.MPOE in total sum of 53433526163 to a notional float of 500000000 has been issued on July 28, 2012, 1:01 am. Feel free to publish this receipt to your shareholders.
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 =sj/6
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II. Beginning this month MPEx no longer pays interest on user deposits.

III. Options were upgraded from 1-10 by .5 to 1-20 by a full dollar. The few owners of fractional options now discontinued were upgraded to the most appropriate denomination (for instance, C055T was reissued as C050 and P055T likewise to P060T).

June 2012 Results :

*******************
Operational results, MPOE
*******************

Overall trade 11`109 contracts, of which 3`266 CALL ; 7`843 PUT.

Revenue : 3`036.517555240 BTC, of which :
     *contract sales : 3`035.28351269 BTC
     *contract exercise : 1.23404255 BTC

Expenditure : 1`451.82086411 BTC, of which :
     *contracts bought : 863.81253443 BTC
     *exercise : 409.37082068 BTC
     *capital expenses : 178.63750900 BTC (3`579.91 × 4.99%)

Profit : 1`584.69669113 BTC

*******************
Operational results, MPEx
*******************

Overall trade : 30`072.44838939 BTC
Revenue from sales fee : 60.14489677 BTC
Revenue from new accounts : 80 BTC

Profit : 140.14489677 BTC

*******************
Shareholders table
*******************

Total shares : 1`000`000`000, of which :
     1. Mircea Popescu : 981`651`945 shares,
     2. MPOE.ETF : 4`083`981 shares,
     3. Third parties : 14`264`074 shares.

Total dividend : 1`724.84158790 BTC.

******************
Bondholders table
******************

Total capital : 3`579.91 BTC, of which :
     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.99%
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.99%
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.99%
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC @ 4.99%
     5. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1918.33834257 BTC @ 4.99%
     6. 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 432.67672807 BTC @ 4.99%

To cover : 0 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.

MPBOR valid 29 July - 27 July : 4.99%.

Final bondholder list :

     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC
     5. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1918.33834257 BTC @ 4.975%
     6. 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 432.67672807 BTC @ 4.99%
     7. Mircea Popescu (last recourse), 5%

******************
Miscellaneous
******************
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
 Hash: SHA1

Your dividend payment for S.MPOE in total sum of 158469669113 to a notional float of 500000000 has been issued on June 30, 2012, 1:11 am. Feel free to publish this receipt to your shareholders.
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 =wfYf
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Just wondering why the dividend was paid on a notional float of 500000000, rather than the 1 billion issued shares?

May 2012 Results :

*******************
Operational results, MPOE
*******************

Overall trade 5`976 contracts, of which +3`056 -0 CALL ; +120 - 2`800 PUT.

Revenue : 317.66278560 BTC, of which :
     *contract sales : 317.66278560 BTC

Expenditure : 473.16436150 BTC, of which :
     *contracts bought : 104.66612200 BTC
     *exercise : 227.05882352 BTC
     *capital expenses : 141.43941598 BTC (2`843.00333640i × 4.975%)

Profit : -155.50157590 BTC

Third parties covering shorts : + 0 BTC - 0 BTC (total 0 BTC).

*******************
Operational results, MPEx
*******************

Overall trade : 28`303.64909712 BTC
Revenue from sales fee : 56.60729819 BTC
Revenue from new accounts : 20 BTC

Profit : 76.60729819 BTC

*******************
Shareholders table
*******************

Total shares : 1`000`000`000, of which :
     1. Mircea Popescu : 983`714`137 shares,
     2. Third parties : 16`285`863 shares.

Total dividend : 76.60729819 BTC.

******************
Bondholders table
******************

Total capital : 2`843.00333640 BTC, of which :
     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 100.00000888 BTC @ 4.975%
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 100.00000888 BTC @ 4.975%
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 100.00000888 BTC @ 4.975%
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 1000.00000888 BTC @ 4.975%
     5. 17KZZq1Q8dD3no2×9Ww2XqVVq6aw1JB69Q, 50.00000888 BTC @ 4.975%
     6. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1`493.00329200 BTC @ 4.975%

To cover : 155.50157590 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.05469623

MPBOR valid 25 May - 29 June : 4.975%.

Final bondholder list :

     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC
     5. 17KZZq1Q8dD3no2×9Ww2XqVVq6aw1JB69Q, 47.26519669 BTC (below minimum, returned to investor)
     6. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1918.33834257 BTC @ 4.975%
     7. Mircea Popescu (last recourse), 5%

******************
Miscellaneous
******************

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
 Hash: SHA1

Your dividend payment for S.MPOE in total sum of 7660729819 to a notional float of 500000000 has been issued on May 26, 2012, 12:30 am. Feel free to publish this receipt to your shareholders.
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Ok, this is pretty huge.

The April results were published (English version here).

The highlights:
* 1500 BTC gross, 1100 BTC net profit this month.
* New limit for bonds, at 5% now. Possibly the best returns for the level of risk.
* MPEx - MPOE merger, delivering a windfall to current shareholders.

Various and sundry other points.

As you know, March IPO (1mn shares offered) closed 90.850079910 BTC total investment.

April IPO (4mn shares offered) runs until April the 6th (~48 hours left). Currently 97.35175995 BTC subscribed, thus trading at ~73.3% discount so far.

Read all about MPOE and the IPOs and get yours!

March 2012 Results :

*******************
Operational results
*******************

Overall 3`587 contracts, of which +1`893 -100 CALL ; +394 -1`200 PUT.

Received : 2`504.45113888 BTC.

Expended : 1`891.81938897 BTC, of which :
     *owed to customers, 1`770.97441517 BTC
     *capital expenses : 50.84497380 BTC (1`893 BTC + 662.02380952 BTC) × 1.99%
     *advertising expenses : 70 BTC

Third parties covering shorts : +501.84210500 BTC (total 501.84210500 BTC).

Profit : 110.78964491 BTC

*******************
Shareholders table
*******************

Total shares : 1`000`000`000, of which :
     1. 12fmA1LuYpXqGzguWmDV7efRAHwrUcxxy8, 1`100
     2. 1LH8pRGWtgVWAw13Tqc8H3iys4mmKYygB3, 330`214
     3. 142Y7SccDv471NirBJoWpsDo9yLQgd92r5, 22`014
     4. 1CMeG8KzxzYRjRQS7BzfsMbW2b2FPf4RHw, 55`035
     5. 1MqrNNoRrtyJiv5HnBNEG2hb3itae7Pdt8, 165`107
     6. 1BvaoNBkNFkaHLUavJFAXRRrnxjqfdJYW6, 88`057
     7. 1GUpLZyMMBR7hig5zxnzfLabMXGay7JmXp, 55`035
     8. 17W4tjwJwPSJBDAA2uav2xuoj8cAocitxV, 110`071
     9. 1JdSigiyLRXiBingciXegfGWAjdzLW1AAH, 173`362
     10. Mircea Popescu, 999`000`005

Total dividends : 110.78964491 BTC (per 1 mn share block : 0.11078964 BTC).

******************
Bondholders table
******************

Total retained capital : 2`555.02380952 BTC, of which
     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 100.00000888 BTC @ 1.99%
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 100.00000888 BTC @ 1.99%
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 100.00000888 BTC @ 1.99%
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 1000.00000888 BTC @ 1.99%
     5. 17KZZq1Q8dD3no2×9Ww2XqVVq6aw1JB69Q, 50.00000888 BTC @ 1.99%
     6. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1205.02376512 BTC @ 1.99%

To cover : 0 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.0

Final bondholder list :

     1. 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 100.00000888 BTC
     2. 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 100.00000888 BTC
     3. 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 100.00000888 BTC
     4. 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 1000.00000888 BTC
     5. 17KZZq1Q8dD3no2×9Ww2XqVVq6aw1JB69Q, 50.00000888 BTC
     6. 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 2000.00000888 BTC @ 1.99%
     7. Mircea Popescu (creditor of last resort), 2%

**************
Miscellaneous
**************

 4`000`000 shares offered through public subscription through the 6th of April (more info).

I announced this a little while ago, I've made a fund on GLBSE for those who wish to invest in MPOE. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/glbse-mpoe-etf-september-financial-report-available-67535

I may look into this for funding some future software development at least partially.

That too, but what he says too.