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Topic: Investing in Mircea Popescu's Options Emporium - page 4. (Read 26180 times)

hero member
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I realize that it's hard for Mircea to pick a suitable price for the initial offering of shares, too


More than hard, it would be plain impossible. How do you value an entity with no tangible capital that you own? You don't, only the market can and only the market should. Anything else is practically speaking fraud.


Fraud? Really? Where did that come in?

I think there are different mechanisms for better allowing the market to price an entity with no tangible capital. It's not fraud for MP to say I'm selling the stocks for x BTC each. This has the problem that if the market thinks x is too high, it won't buy and if x is lower than its perception of value, it will buy. It's a blunt mechanism, but not fraud. Also, presumably, MP wants to ensure that all 0.1 % of stocks sell in each round. The problem with the current mechanism is that if I, as part of the market, somehow plug some assumptions in a model and come up with a valuation for MPOE—say, I think one share is worth 0.73 BTC. I'm willing to buy 80 shares for 0.73 BTC; if it's more than that, I'm not interested—there is no pricing mechanism to ensure that I buy shares if the price is less than 0.73 BTC and don't if it is more than that.

There's no reason why stocks cannot be priced in the same way as the bond interest is. I put in my bid of 80 at 0.73 BTC each. Mr C.O. Pumpkin is willing to pay only 0.3 BTC but has more to spend and puts in an order for 1500 at 0.3 BTC. This process continues and after closing, MP lists the orders in descending order of offer price and then rules a line under or through the lower offer price that completely sells out the offer.
hero member
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Might it pay to update the original announcement to address brendio's questions/points explicitly for the benefit of future readers?

Doesn't seem anything has changed or would need updating, but maybe a reference by link might be useful. I'll bring it up with Mr. P.

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but it's hard to justify throwing $500 worth of coins at the IPO knowing that someone else might throw $50000 at it


Depends what assumptions you are working on. If you assume everyone else is an idiot then it makes no sense to invest anything at all. If you assume the other people are clever, well informed individuals then investing 500 into something that sees a hundred times that investment from someone else seems a good bet. Being the top dog in the round might be dubious, but being one of the people who put money in seems hardly a bad idea.

Obviously, it's high risk so not a good place to put your house (and I think Mr. Popescu has already indicated he believes this first round to be oversubscribed already) but it has over bonds the advantage that you only risk once. Think of it as little turtles coming out of their eggs: they rush to the sea. Some make it. Those that made it get to lay eggs someday.

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I realize that it's hard for Mircea to pick a suitable price for the initial offering of shares, too


More than hard, it would be plain impossible. How do you value an entity with no tangible capital that you own? You don't, only the market can and only the market should. Anything else is practically speaking fraud.

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An early adopter might have 100k coins lying around (he might be holding them for the long term) and be willing to lend them all out at the last minute for 0.1% interest.

Two points of importance here: first, that you can see what money flows in and when by looking at the exchange bitcoin address (1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR) on any of the blockchain explorers, so you can make educated guesses about what's going on. Second, that if in fact someone is willing to offer 100k BTC for 0.1% then in fact that's what the interest rates are, and you've lost at most 0.1% over your capital. In the end nothing prevents you from also offering your capital for 0.1% which has no practical downside (if the needs fill at say 1.7% then everyone gets 1.7% anyway), except of course in the case everyone ends up doing this. But then again, if everyone ends up doing this that's the fair price and so on.

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Then MPOE has a cheap loan and all is well, but it's fully dependent on the whims of the early adopter, who might decide to lend all those coins to pirateat40 a couple of months later.


The thing here is that MPOE has been operating and will continue to operate for the foreseeable future with or without investment in the form of bonds from third parties. Thus the only incentive it offers for investing is a purely financial one, there's no social relations being built in this sense you seem to be thinking of. It's a financial, not an emotional venture. If people find the benefits sufficiently attractive they invest, if they find them insufficient they divest. If they get upset on the fork for being too long or too short... well really, that's not a problem the fork can address, a shrink is in order.

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MPOE might achieve similar incentives with fewer drawbacks by imposing a penalty fee for withdrawing unused bond money early.

There's no practical way to fairly price that fee.

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Anyway, I'm interested to see how this develops. I would definitely like to get involved, but right now there are too many unknowns for me.

I think that's the situation for most people. Luckily MPOE isn't going anywhere, and so all these unknowns can work themselves out in time I imagine.

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P.S: are there any plans to allow customers to write options, possibly with daily settlement or a similar arrangement? or is the site intended only as a market for Mircea's own options?

There have been plans for this since the beginning, from what I understand. The problem is that it's quite unclear yet how would one go about allowing anonymous underwriting. It sounds like a contradiction in terms, doesn't it? What do you write in that underspot?

Basically it comes down to a clash between anonymity and completeness and so far the former seems to be winning out. This may change, but it's not at all clear how exactly, or when.

Short story: We'd love to, we don't know how.
donator
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I'm actually a pineapple
Thank you brendio and MPOE-PR for clarifying the terms of the contracts. Might it pay to update the original announcement to address brendio's questions/points explicitly for the benefit of future readers?

I only have two outstanding questions, really:

For equity investors, the IPO is effectively impossible to price and any investment in it is by nature almost pure, uninformed speculation. I'm not saying that's necessarily a bad thing, but it's hard to justify throwing $500 worth of coins at the IPO knowing that someone else might throw $50000 at it (unlikely, but in principle could happen), ensuring that I only get a minute percentage of the company. As an investor in the IPO, all I really know is that I won't be getting more than 0.1% and won't ever get exactly 0%. I can try to model my expectation of other investors' behavior in the IPO (the $50000 is unlikely given the terms and the fact that others will have the same concerns as I do) to determine what might get me a reasonable chunk of shares for my money, and then evaluate whether I consider the shares I expect to get to be worth the money I throw at them, but that's a lot of unknowns Smiley I realize that it's hard for Mircea to pick a suitable price for the initial offering of shares, too, and that's why he did things this way, but I'd urge for him to try to make an educated (realistic) guess rather than force us to undergo a complex modeling task to evaluate the IPO.

On the bond front, I'm mostly concerned about the "penalty" of frozen funds if you demand a high interest rate. Mircea justifies this by saying that it creates an incentive for bond-holders to offer "reasonable" interest rates up front, because otherwise their funds are frozen for a month, but again it boils down to predicting other people's behavior. An early adopter might have 100k coins lying around (he might be holding them for the long term) and be willing to lend them all out at the last minute for 0.1% interest. Any of the rest of us offering even a 0.5% monthly rate (which is very low compared to most credit issued in the bitcoin community) would have our funds frozen for a month, and then at the end of the month we'd probably withdraw them and not deal with MPOE bonds again. Then MPOE has a cheap loan and all is well, but it's fully dependent on the whims of the early adopter, who might decide to lend all those coins to pirateat40 a couple of months later.

Again, I see why Mircea used this approach, to incentivize use to offer him reasonable rates, but I think the penalty for mis-priced interest is too high. MPOE might achieve similar incentives with fewer drawbacks by imposing a penalty fee for withdrawing unused bond money early.

Anyway, I'm interested to see how this develops. I would definitely like to get involved, but right now there are too many unknowns for me.

P.S: are there any plans to allow customers to write options, possibly with daily settlement or a similar arrangement? or is the site intended only as a market for Mircea's own options?
hero member
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Gotcha.

The problem with capital in the bitcoin world is that...well... Let me explain by example. New mining company starts. Some cash is poured in. Some dividends are paid, 3, 5, 10% of the cash. Then the company disappears, two, six, twelve months down the road. While 3, 5, 10% returns are great for a year or less, 9x% losses on capital aren't so great.

It makes sense then to retain as little capital as possible. With mining it's not really possible. With financials apparently it is.
hero member
Activity: 518
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I think you may have misunderstood what I was meaning by retained earnings. It's an accounting term for a form of equity of an entity. I was not suggesting MPOE should retain equity. My threads have been to reconcile my previous comment:

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Usually the stockholders take a loss in full before the bond holders make any loss.

with the structure of MPOE. If there is no equity in the entity, then there is nothing for the stock holders to lose, and so those next in line, in this case the bond holders, take a haircut should losses occur.
hero member
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Yeah, ok. The terminology will take a little to catch up with bitcoin transactions in general, I'm sure.
So basically the conclusion is, you have a valid point but it's not really as much related to MPOE itself, moreover it's something that investors (bondholders) will have to address either together or individually.
hero member
Activity: 518
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Stocks having no nominal value have correspondingly no claim on the capital of MPOE (not that MPOE actually has any capital to begin with).

The idea to retain capital would work in the direction of capital formation within MPOE, which in the traditional approach to companies is the way things go, but MPOE is established as a capital-free venture. It makes little sense to breach this absolute just in order to establish a sort of bond insurance pool, as this isn't the core mission or even close to it.

This.

This is what I have been saying, perhaps a little facetiously by couching it in terms of "bankruptcy" and "insolvency", terms which are not entirely accurate when MPOE does have agreements in place to meet any debt obligations that may arise.
hero member
Activity: 756
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Stocks having no nominal value have correspondingly no claim on the capital of MPOE (not that MPOE actually has any capital to begin with).

The idea to retain capital would work in the direction of capital formation within MPOE, which in the traditional approach to companies is the way things go, but MPOE is established as a capital-free venture. It makes little sense to breach this absolute just in order to establish a sort of bond insurance pool, as this isn't the core mission or even close to it.
hero member
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I was talking more in accounting terms about MPOE's balance sheet. The NTA at the end of each month is always zero. What stock holders are buying is a right to future earning, but not backed by any hard assets apart from "goodwill".

Bond holders can do what they like, I agree. I am merely trying to understand the logic and functioning of the stocks and bonds with respect to the usual meaning and functioning of the terms. MPOE retaining no equity allows it to function as described and still leave bonds senior to stocks in respect of claims over capital of the company.
hero member
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Brendio,

There's nothing to keep bondholders from retaining any portion of their own earnings for the purpose of insuring their capital. They can do this either individually or even as part of a larger cooperative where they all pool a certain % of earnings and then distribute it to cover losses if and when they occur. There is really very little reason for MPOE to implement this forcibly however.

Bondholders in this context are a lot more like a bank dealing in spreads and default swaps than like a corner shop owner buying a 30 year Tbill. Not that there's anything wrong with either, but they're not the same.
hero member
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the emporium can effectively go bankrupt in any given month

MPOE can not go bankrupt. Literally.


I think perhaps a more accurate way to put it, now that I am understanding it better: Each month, MPOE is very close to trading while insolvent, in that it has no capital reserves and no equity* to cover net losing positions, but it has very understanding bond holders to bail it out each month if things go pear-shaped.

* Assets=liabilities; no retained earnings; current losses borne by bond holders; profits distributed in full to stock holders.
donator
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I'm actually a pineapple
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He makes up for the site's ugliness by hiring really hot PR women, right?

Beauty comes from behind.

Are you saying Santorum is beautiful?
hero member
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Quote
He makes up for the site's ugliness by hiring really hot PR women, right?

Beauty comes from behind.
hero member
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Quote
I thought it looked terrible (it did, and still does), I didn't know anything about the founder and just assumed it was a scam.

There is significant risk involved in dealing with options even for the seasoned and well experienced trader. MPOE talks to the sophisticated investor with a solid understanding of what options are, how they work and what they are intended and useful for, not to the casual user inclined to "gamble" with complex financial instruments. The web interface reflects (at least in the owner's view) this general principle.

That said, it would be trivial for any interested third party to construct a prettier interface on top of the exposed functionality, and even charge users a fee for his services. It is, after all, what brokers do in everyday life. Mr. Popescu is a firm believer in community effort - the ugliness may well be deliberate.

As to your last point: there do seem to be a significant number of scammers floating about, so I can easily understand the "assume everyone's a scammer" attitude, I imagine it works well in a majority of cases. However Mircea Popescu is both well known and well respected in the bitcoin community and beyond, so this'd be one case of the minority.

The page is not terribly well known, moved a few hundred BTC last month over ~7k contracts total. It is growing steadily however, and from what I understand that was and remains the plan.
hero member
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Quote
the emporium can effectively go bankrupt in any given month

MPOE can not go bankrupt. Literally.

This may sound silly on the first read, but once you take into consideration how the capital requirements are calculated it becomes apparent that in order for 100% capital loss the price of BTC needs to go both to infinity and to zero simultaneously.

Otherwise let's see an imaginary example:

MPOE has on the book 1000 Calls @5.0, 1000 Puts @5.0. Allowing that the price minimum for the month was 5.0, the capital requirements for this book are then 2000 BTC. If the price moves to 50$/BTC in this month (+1000%, significantly more than what sunk LIB.X, for instance), then the total owed on the book is 45 / 50 * 1000 = 900 BTC, which comes to a 45% loss if these options contracts were given away for free. If the option contracts were sold on average for half a BTC each then MPOE actually turns a 100 BTC profit at the end of this month, of which 40 BTC goes to the bondholders and 60 BTC to the stock holders.

The entire system is deliberately designed for stability. Not claimed stability but actual, baked in, universally verifiable, mathematically provable stability. The aim is to provide a pillar on which other BTC financials can rest and be built up, and in fact by trading with MPOE you help stabilize the BTC.
rjk
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1ngldh
I looked at this site when they first started, I thought it looked terrible (it did, and still does), I didn't know anything about the founder and just assumed it was a scam.

Is it really that popular?
It works. But as you say, it certainly lacks polish, and is slightly manual (must send emails, etc).
hero member
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GLBSE Support [email protected]
I looked at this site when they first started, I thought it looked terrible (it did, and still does), I didn't know anything about the founder and just assumed it was a scam.

Is it really that popular?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I have another question, but I'm on otc at the moment, so I'll ask MP directly.

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Session Start (#bitcoin-otc:mircea_popescu): Tue Feb 28 22:18:06 2012 1000
[22:19] Brendio: I have a question about your MPOE stock/bond offering
[22:19] mircea_popescu: shoot
[22:19] Brendio: With the bonds, I don't get how you know each month how much capital you'll need
[22:19] Brendio: before
[22:19] Brendio: hand
[22:20] mircea_popescu: you don't do it beforehand
[22:20] mircea_popescu: you do it after the month close.
[22:20] Brendio: So how will that work if investors are investing month by month?
[22:20] Brendio: or send mid month?
[22:20] mircea_popescu: i am the creditor of last resort
[22:20] mircea_popescu: so i always cover anything that's needed.
[22:21] mircea_popescu: and you can only finance full months, no matter when you send you start financing the next month
[22:21] Brendio: And if you get more suppky than demand, the too-high bidders get nix?
[22:21] mircea_popescu: when you want out you get your money at months end
[22:21] Brendio: Does it automatically reinvest?
[22:22] mircea_popescu: yes.
[22:22] mircea_popescu: on both scores.
[22:23] Brendio: if someone invests on march 15, does that count for march, or only start in april?
[22:24] mircea_popescu: starts in april, technically march 31st
[22:24] mircea_popescu: cause april starts on march 31st due to the last-friday-ends-month rule
[22:24] Brendio: and interest would be paid/credited when? end of april approx.?
[22:25] mircea_popescu: between last tick of last friday of a month and monday next.
[22:25] mircea_popescu: usually within a few hours of close.
[22:26] Brendio: and if I bid 1.99% for april, and you can fill the demand at 1.5%, I get no interest for the month, even though you've held my coins?
[22:26] mircea_popescu: yes.
[22:26] mircea_popescu: price formation goes both ways, you want to bid as little as worth it and as much as sensible.
[22:27] Brendio: hmmm. Okay. My understanding was correct. It is a very odd structure. Hard to price!
[22:27] mircea_popescu: i agree it's odd
[22:27] mircea_popescu: let me just say that i didn't do it like this for the sake of making it odd tho.
[22:28] mircea_popescu: one thing going in your favour is that the exchange uses exactly one bitcoin address, and all transactions are coded
[22:28] mircea_popescu: so you can look at the money flowing in or out, and decide.
[22:28] mircea_popescu: stock buys end in 999 bonds in 888 etc.
[22:28] mircea_popescu: so you at least get a feel for the overall volume if nothing else.
[22:29] Brendio: You structures it that way it to control your risk?
[22:29] mircea_popescu: to control everyone's risk pretty much.
[22:29] Brendio: I hadn't realised that. I thought only you would know by the emails
[22:29] mircea_popescu: basically even if the statements are made are convoluted
[22:29] mircea_popescu: at least they are absolute.
[22:30] mircea_popescu: no, you can look at 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR everything is in there.
[22:30] mircea_popescu: buys/sells/exercises of options too, for auditing purposes.
[22:30] Brendio: saves you needing to predetermine how much capital to hold
[22:31] mircea_popescu: for one, yes.
[22:31] Brendio: So, no stock holders yet ...
[22:31] mircea_popescu: there's like 4-5 buyers so far yes.
[22:31] mircea_popescu: between you and me i think the current offering is a little oversubscribed maybe.
[22:32] Brendio: whoops, got stocks and bonds mixed
[22:32] mircea_popescu: no bonds yet no.
[22:32] Brendio: no bonds yet
[22:32] mircea_popescu: but makes little sense to send bonds so early in the month.
[22:32] mircea_popescu: besides i think most of the ppl with capital are trying to figure out how to price me.
[22:32] Brendio: is there a time limit for the stocks?
[22:32] mircea_popescu: only been out a few days yet.
[22:32] mircea_popescu: nope.
[22:32] mircea_popescu: or what do you mean by time limit ?
[22:33] Brendio: To buy stocks
[22:33] mircea_popescu: there's no time limit in the sense that stocks claim to dividend is perpetual, they do not expire. however, subscriptions do expire, the current one on the 1st of march
[22:33] Brendio: just reread - Friday, the 1st of March 2012, 23:59:59 GMT,
[22:34] mircea_popescu: i intend to offer a block for 1 week each beggining of a month.
[22:34] mircea_popescu: so prolly will be another offer starting 31st of march till 7th april.
[22:34] Brendio: okay good to know. Will there be any public record of prices for which stocks are transferred, or is it all otc?
[22:34] mircea_popescu: all this will be announced with the regular (monthly) results, which also come out after close of month.
[22:35] mircea_popescu: I will do a closing of the public subscription listing the total ammt received total ammt per share and share blocks
[22:35] mircea_popescu: allocated.
[22:36] Brendio: I mean for secondary transfers, like stock market prices, as opposed to an ipo price.
[22:36] mircea_popescu: there's no way for me to ascertain price
[22:36] mircea_popescu: maybe people give it away, or trade them for blowjobs. i don't know.
[22:37] Brendio: yeah, that's what i thought. I might look out for any trading here Smiley
[22:37] mircea_popescu: some people were talking about taking it to glbse or other such places, in which case...
[22:37] mircea_popescu: im pretty sure in the end there will be price formation somehow.
[22:38] Brendio: Okay, cool, I think you've answered most of my questions. I think about it some more, but might stick to pirate's program and glbse for now ...
[22:39] mircea_popescu: one important point :
[22:39] mircea_popescu: if you bit 1.99% and i fill at 1.5 you get no interest
[22:39] mircea_popescu: BUT if the mpoe goes bad in the red, you get no loss attributed either.
[22:39] mircea_popescu: and also, do you mind if i publish this on the blog so other people can benefit by the discussion ?
[22:39] Brendio: yeah, I figured that.
[22:40] Brendio: Yeah okay. I can put it on bitcoin talk too.
[22:40] mircea_popescu: cool.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
The explanation above shows how the bonds are senior in terms of income, but not in terms of capital.

Maybe I don't understand the month by month accounting system. With the "stocks" having zero nominal value and holding no reserves, the emporium can effectively go bankrupt in any given month and then be recapitalised by the bond holders the next month, but the stock-holders still receive future income.

I have another question, but I'm on otc at the moment, so I'll ask MP directly.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Oh, I forgot to say:

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To whomever it may concern : MPOE-PR is the authorised agent for handling any MPOE communications on bitcointalk.org. Alternatively you can reach me directly on #bitcoin-otc.

May your pools run deep and miners cool,
Mircea Popescu
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Update:

Code:
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