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Topic: Investing in Mircea Popescu's Options Emporium - page 5. (Read 26180 times)

jr. member
Activity: 42
Merit: 1000
Не was here -- months ago.
Search for his account -- sadly i forget exact username Sad
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Quote
Bonds are usually above stocks in the capital structure. These
bonds are not.

This point seems to be addressed here:
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2012/sa-ne-jucam-de-a-investitiile-n-bitcoini/#comment-78897

Quote
{random_cat} oh… but my issue is that the ’stocks’ seem to be
senior to the ‘bonds’. that is all…. nothing against either particular
gamble.

[...]

{mircea_popescu} no. looky : in december we have net receipts
141.516650950 BTC payments 138.559309400 BTC. that leaves 3 ish btc to be
split. the bondholders get it all. if there was more than what the
bondholders got, it’d have been split up to shareholders, as for instance
in november : receipts 262.208804500 BTC, payments 46.154494050 BTC. this
leaves a 216 btc to be split up. bondholders get (with a 2% rate) 18.5 BTC
over their less than 1k capital. the remainder is split up to
shareholders.
{random_cat} ahh.. ahh… i was misreading the capital expenses

{mircea_popescu} yeh. the bond interest goes in there accting wise, but
otherwise, it’s … you know, bondholder’s payout. so really, to possibly
better translate this in financial english : there’s a preferred class A
which has fixed dividend and a nominal value of 1 BTC and there’s a
preferred class B which gets remainders and has no nominal value. called
bonds and stocks respectively for the hell of it.

[...]

{mircea_popescu} you’d say the fact that bond expenses are put in the
expense acct prominently doesn’t carry this point ? i mean, stocks get the
profit divided. profit is receipts-expenses. bond expenses qualify, ergo,
senior.
donator
Activity: 266
Merit: 252
I'm actually a pineapple
Interesting service. Seems fairly legitimate, and the guy has reputation. Not to mention it looks like he knows what he's doing- but why are you posting instead of him? Haven't heard of him and his service until today but he seems to be profitable. Either way it looks like he's pulling a lot of steam, so if the BTC community trusts him I guess that's good enough for me.

I think I'm going to have to keep an eye on this, seems like a very good investment.

He doesn't have a forum account and I thought it'd be good to get some discussion going on the forum. You should try convincing him to get on here!
newbie
Activity: 25
Merit: 0
Interesting service. Seems fairly legitimate, and the guy has reputation. Not to mention it looks like he knows what he's doing- but why are you posting instead of him? Haven't heard of him and his service until today but he seems to be profitable. Either way it looks like he's pulling a lot of steam, so if the BTC community trusts him I guess that's good enough for me.

I think I'm going to have to keep an eye on this, seems like a very good investment.
donator
Activity: 266
Merit: 252
I'm actually a pineapple
That's a pretty crazy structure. I'd love to invest, because there's definitely money in it and a great need for a derivatives market (I loved playing on bitoption when it was around). But the risk reward equation for that structure is all out of whack.

For the stocks, you have no way of knowing beforehand how much of the company you are buying and how much you are paying. It seems more like an annuity. I think it should be offered through a bookbuild structure.

The bonds has limited upside and potentially unlimited downside. Usually the stockholders take a loss in full before the bond holders make any loss. In that case, I would invest. As it is, the most I can make is 2%. The most I can lose is 100%.

I agree with your concerns and have also pointed them out to mircea, but he seems set on these terms Smiley I guess we'll see. Perhaps it would help if we came up with two names for the contracts that aren't stocks and bonds, because these don't necessarily behave like the conventional meanings of the terms.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Umm, this is non-standard options invariant
In order to play with aim to gain some money
One must develop some non-standard profitability calculator.
 It can be tricky task.



Huh
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
That's a pretty crazy structure. I'd love to invest, because there's definitely money in it and a great need for a derivatives market (I loved playing on bitoption when it was around). But the risk reward equation for that structure is all out of whack.

For the stocks, you have no way of knowing beforehand how much of the company you are buying and how much you are paying. It seems more like an annuity. I think it should be offered through a bookbuild structure.

The bonds has limited upside and potentially unlimited downside. Usually the stockholders take a loss in full before the bond holders make any loss. In that case, I would invest. As it is, the most I can make is 2%. The most I can lose is 100%.

Actually it says your risk is zero as far as losses:

"Their owner(s) are not responsible for any net loss resulting from MPOE activity, but are entitled to a fraction of the net profit of each month equal to the fraction of total stocks they hold."

Don't buy any champagne in the winter months.

That's for the stocks. Your liability is limited to your initial investment. The problem with the stocks is even if I can value them, there's no way to be able to know what their value will be before the IPO. You can buy and hope not many other people do and it may be worth it. But if 1000 all put in 1000 BTC each, they will still only own 0.1% of the company. I'll wait until after the IPO and see what they go for on the secondary market.

Bonds are usually above stocks in the capital structure. These bonds are not.
jr. member
Activity: 42
Merit: 1000
Umm, this is non-standard options invariant
In order to play with aim to gain some money
One must develop some non-standard profitability calculator.
 It can be tricky task.

UPD. Yes , i believe  these are not vanilla options. But some sort of something. Wink

full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
That's a pretty crazy structure. I'd love to invest, because there's definitely money in it and a great need for a derivatives market (I loved playing on bitoption when it was around). But the risk reward equation for that structure is all out of whack.

For the stocks, you have no way of knowing beforehand how much of the company you are buying and how much you are paying. It seems more like an annuity. I think it should be offered through a bookbuild structure.

The bonds has limited upside and potentially unlimited downside. Usually the stockholders take a loss in full before the bond holders make any loss. In that case, I would invest. As it is, the most I can make is 2%. The most I can lose is 100%.

Actually it says your risk is zero as far as losses:

"Their owner(s) are not responsible for any net loss resulting from MPOE activity, but are entitled to a fraction of the net profit of each month equal to the fraction of total stocks they hold."

Don't buy any champagne in the winter months.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
That's a pretty crazy structure. I'd love to invest, because there's definitely money in it and a great need for a derivatives market (I loved playing on bitoption when it was around). But the risk reward equation for that structure is all out of whack.

For the stocks, you have no way of knowing beforehand how much of the company you are buying and how much you are paying. It seems more like an annuity. I think it should be offered through a bookbuild structure.

The bonds has limited upside and potentially unlimited downside. Usually the stockholders take a loss in full before the bond holders make any loss. In that case, I would invest. As it is, the most I can make is 2%. The most I can lose is 100%.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Trustworthy guy.
donator
Activity: 266
Merit: 252
I'm actually a pineapple
For anyone interested, mircea_popescu posted some information on stock/bond offerings for his options emporium on his blog (and on IRC) yesterday:

http://polimedia.us/trilema/2012/sa-ne-jucam-de-a-investitiile-n-bitcoini/#comment-78745

The arrangements do seem a little uncommon, so I'd be interested to see what people think of them. I've told him about this post, too, so he'll probably be following as well, although I don't think he has a forum account yet.

If you're wondering about trust, his WOT account is http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=mircea_popescu&sign=ANY&type=RECV? and he has a GPG-signed statement from the WOT identity at http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/mpoe_sign.txt
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