Many might be expecting for it to happen, but with the halving expected to happen in April of 2024, I expect that we will start to experience major price increase at least 5 months or even more after the event, so I only expect that price increase will happen at around the 2nd half of the year. With what you said regarding economic condition, remember the pandemic in 2020? Are our economic condition good at that time? 2020 and 2021 are considered the worst years for many because of lockdowns, the virus being spread etc. but look at what the market did at that time. So I don't buy the "economic condition isn't promising" thing because the market increased in 2020 and 2021 even though we are at the considered the worst time.
Correct, I'm not expecting Bitcoin's price to rise right when the halving occurs. It'll take months, however, I believe that as we're heading towards April, the price is probable to gradually increase and surpass $40,000 pre-halving and perhaps reach up to $50,000 a month or two afterwards. The point is that we're less than a year away from where we're expecting a major increase in price, which is the last quarter of 2024. And yes, I'll have to agree with you, 2020 and 2021 were quite stagnant years for the economy, due to Covid-19, quarantines, travel restrictions and a whole disruption in the supply chain, the effects of which are still seen today. So indeed, there's a decent chance of Bitcoin ignoring the current economic recession.
It's good that you're not too greedy and set moderate goals for yourself to avoid regrets, but I find that a target of 100k$ or 120k$ is not too high for bitcoin in the upcoming bull season. I have even higher expectations than everyone's predictions, I believe bitcoin is completely capable of reaching $150k-180k.
Many people say that investing in bitcoin is not a place to get rich quickly, but we should not deny that it is easier to make double or triple profits with bitcoin than with any other asset. That's why we invest in bitcoin instead of other options, so I still consider bitcoin a get-rich-quick investment more than other assets.
I don't want to fall short of my expectations; I'd prefer to be modest and satisfied with what I have, although I'm quite positive that in the upcoming two years, it's very probable to see a new ATH that would triple my investment. However, as I've mentioned already, it's best to be modest and have more down-to-earth expectations.
I understand your down-to-earth predictions. Like me, you're also probably annoyed with those seemingly unrealistic targets. Sometimes, they seem nothing but wishful thinking.
But we can actually go back to what happened in the most recent past and see if these 3x or 4x returns within a year, which you observed as way too common in the forum, are probable.
The ATH was $69,044.77 and it was reached on the 10th of November 2021. On the 10th of November 2020, the price was just around $15,000. With this data alone, we can see that the price actually more than quadrupled in just a year's time. As a matter of fact, if we step back a little further to October of 2020, the price was just $10,000. Several months before that, the price was even much lower. It was just $5,000 in March of the same year.
Although we're already high at $27,000 right now, I'm still not discounting the possibility that it would at least x3 or x4 a year from now. That to me is still probable. That could still be a down-to-earth or realistic prediction.
Judging by what we've already seen Bitcoin succeed at, a new ATH isn't an unrealistic expectation. Surely, it won't happen now, but I wouldn't doubt that it's likely to happen in the next two or three upcoming years, which would result in 3x or even 4x profits. It's an insane amount of money, if you consider it.
The halving never caused the price to rise instantly, it happened only after 6+ months, and it is possible that there won't be a significant bull run until Q4 2024. However, I do not see it as unrealistic (or impossible) that we have a pre-halving effect that could perhaps cause a 25% to 50% price increase before April 2024. Anyone who invests today and gets the opportunity to earn 100% after 1 year should be happy if that happens, but if they don't want to risk it, keep the money in the bank or under the mattress.
That's correct, but still, Q4 of 2024 is approximately a year from now and may even result in a new ATH or at least somewhere close to $50,000 or $60,000, which is still great judging by the shortness of time it would be required from now. Those who are able to invest now won't regret it.
Halving is something that is definitely happening, but don't forget the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US that can happen in the next few months, and most experts think that it will resonate very positively. In combination with the halving, it could very easily increase the price by at least x2 or more compared to the last ATH - which means that we could be talking about a price of $150k for 1 BTC sometime in late 2024 or 2025.
I haven't heard of it, to be honest. I've been quite busy with life the past few weeks, so I've lost touch with the news regarding cryptocurrencies. That would honestly be great, and I'd love to purchase some Bitcoin now, but at the same time, I'd rather not. It's a complicated matter, and I wish I could somehow speed up my accumulation process.