Topic: Is energy prices about to shoot up? - page 2. (Read 1081 times)

Basically the US are taking this missing oil from reserves. Unfortunately, the reserves are not unlimited (they have already reached the absolute low) so sooner rather than later they will need to resume buying. It's the waiting game, but as well as with the sanctions, they have no chance. It's absolutely useless and is not going to stop Russia. Already now, Ukrainians admit the amount of weapons they are receiving from the West is 3x less Russia is producing and providing to their military. Foreign aid has dropped 90% and reached the lowest since 2022.


Yes, I fully agree. They should forget that "world policeman" crap and start minding their own business, take care of their people etc. I think that post-Biden America is going to do exactly that.



 

Considering some of the biggest exporters of oil is not Palestine or Israel, I am not entirely sure how Russia paying Hamas would end up making USA have expensive gas prices.

It's clear that the gas prices at USA is high for two main reasons, one is the fact that they are not getting it from Russia anymore, so they are forced to wherever they could, and two.. well inflation is real for every nation in the world not just USA, we all pay a lot more for everything, a simple bread is higher too, a bottle of water is higher too, prices of things do not stay the same after hyperinflation, and that's what happened when USA decided to print nearly 4 trillion dollars, and not like they are ruined neither, even after printing that much money USA is still richest nation in the world, so it wasn't really a big deal, sure prices of gas went up, but now everyone can afford that, or at least lets say most people.

I think USA should ignore what's going on there, they are doing fine on their own, let people do whatever to each other, USA can stay strong without Ukraine or Israel anyway, help or no help.

I partly agree. Sometimes it happens that third-party participants can receive unexpected benefits as a result of some kind of conflict. For example, like the United States - after Russia unleashed a terrorist war in Ukraine in 2014/2022, the US military-industrial complex received a lot of government orders to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons to fight Russian terrorists.
If we talk about the massacre that Hamas has tripled in Israel, the picture is somewhat different. One of the “directors” of this was Russia, which has already been proven, although not by direct participation, but by financing, consultations, and intelligence assistance. And the goal of this “project” was to destabilize the Middle East by disrupting oil supplies to the world market, hiding behind Hamas and other proxies. After all, there were expectations that neighbors would get involved in this massacre, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other countries that significantly influence the oil market.

Just because some others like Russia benefit from certain actions in another region (anywhere not just West Asia) that doesn't mean they always have a hand in it. For example in case of Palestine, the 75 years of nonstop genocide led to many conflicts between Palestinians and those who want to kill them all, that includes the current ongoing conflict.
Same with Yemen, 9 years of being bombed and having whatever they have destroyed which caused the biggest humanitarian crisis (even worse than Gaza) has led to the current conflict they have with United States.

War is not really beneficial to the direct participants of a potential conflict - it means casualties, destruction of both the country and the economy. Moreover, the world has not yet fully recovered from Covid and 2022. The only benefit is the behind-the-scenes, which provokes others to become a trigger or give an excuse. The U.S., playing the role of "world policeman", is forced to spend energy and resources on solving problems, and in this potential global conflict as well. And it is logical that they do not want full-fledged hostilities in the region, as it will lead to additional difficulties for their partners in the region.

"fight a proxy war with Russia, counter expansion of China" - you are right here, the "hand of the Kremlin" can be traced in igniting another Middle East fire, I agree. Regarding China, there are doubts.  China is not in a position to worsen relations with the US. And if before the last meeting China pretended to be neutral, although it did not impose bans on the supply of arms and dual-use technologies to its "sponsors", now China's rhetoric has changed, and China is forced to compromise with the U.S., and accordingly, in this conflict, China is very unlikely to be on the side of Hamas.

And I appreciate that.

I prefer to have the topic open and the discussion ongoing (hopefully about the topic) because the situation in Red Sea is changing and the tensions are still very high.
For example over the past 2 days we had another news regarding the USS Carney being attacked for the second time and 2 or 3 more Israeli vessels seized or attacked. Unfortunately the details are being censored by both sides for different reasons and they don't release much for me to post anything reliable about the situation and its possible effects.

For now it seems like US is desperately trying to avoid direct confrontation and instead start a proxy war. For example since US military could not do anything, instead the American organization called the UN World Food Program halted food aid to the war torn Yemen.
- On one hand this proxy war could be beneficial for US regime that wants to redirect its focus on continuation of genocide of Palestinians, fight a proxy war with Russia, counter expansion of China and of course the new war that is starting in South America.
- On the other hand if the regime succeeds in convincing its proxies to fight Yemen, it would be more devastating for energy prices and international trade. Because the proxies US regime is choosing is Saudi Arabia (oil rich) and Egypt (Suez Canal) and a couple of others in the region. These proxies are all illegitimate dictatorships that could fall if they cross certain red lines such as attacking Yemen since people of all these countries (despite the dictators) are standing with Palestine and those supporting Palestinians.

This is how complex the situation is right now and we still don't know which way the Red Sea region is going to go.

I try to follow your recommendations and have already improved, as I think, the quality of answers

Well, at least it is already about the region, OPEC+, and about those whose oil goes by the specified route. 
It is the conflict in this region that affects regional suppliers, who are now trying to reduce their production levels in addition to the risks from the conflict. no matter how you look at it, some OPEC+ countries may be either dragged into this conflict or have direct negative consequences by being "on the border" where hostilities are taking place.


PS At the same time, it would be expected to see comments and other participants who write ABSOLUTELY not on the topic of the topic, not on the topic even close to the topic, or it somehow looks biased .

You say that and yet you are still off-topic
That's because you are still reading the title (not the topic content) and responding to the title. This is not about energy prices, this topic is about the effects of the conflict in Red Sea on energy prices! Since the topic is already derailed I won't bother with deleting anymore...

BTW the big supply cut by OPEC is going to start in first quarter of next year which means it won't affect the price until then.

 

1. "derailing all threads" ? Write honestly - he constantly plunges your face into shit, in front of everyone, with any of your pathetic attempts at manipulation and attempt at wishful thinking!

2. “Tariffs are still going up.” Look how petty and stupid you are now trying to convey the idea “energy prices will rise”, trying to sell everyone the idea - “the consumer will still pay more.”

Let me explain - the price of GAS is not rising as you would like (yes now there is a slight seasonal price increase), but falling. The price for the transportation service is raised by the service provider. But he is not alone, there are others who do not raise. In your opinion, if there is 100% inflation in the country, gas before inflation cost $100, after inflation $100, but in local currency the consumer pays 2 times more for gas - does this indicate an increase in energy prices!? ))))

3. You don’t quote articles, you copy-paste the headlines without even reading the article and without trying (or being unable) to understand the meaning and essence! I provide energy price charts from public platforms that anyone can check. Don't know how to use the Internet? Ok, here are the links!

https://ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_price
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

4. About laughter - I laugh at your stupidity. But even here you are trying to disgustingly manipulate, replacing laughter at your wretchedness, the tragedy that was caused in Ukraine in 2014 by RUSSIA, a terrorist country.

But let’s return to the topic of fuel prices, according to the quite reasonable request of the respected author of the topic !

OPEC+ once again tried to somehow solve the issue of cutting production, with an absolutely clear goal - to reduce supplies by increasing the price. Read about the market reaction:
“Oil is falling amid doubts that OPEC+ will further reduce production.
HOUSTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday on concerns about falling demand and ongoing uncertainty about the depth and duration of OPEC+ supply cuts.
Brent crude futures fell 85 cents, or 1.08%, to $78.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed down $1.03, or 1.39%, to $73.04.
Monday's drop adds to a 2% decline last week following supply cuts announced Thursday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+.
I’m providing a link, since you’re not very good at searching the Internet
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-climbs-mideast-tension-back-focus-2023-12-04/

But the problem is that the OPEC+ reduction in production volume does not guarantee an increase in prices, although there is guaranteed to be a decrease in the income of OPEC+ participants

Yeah, says the person who is derailing all threads he participates in and posts his useless crap about "how bad Russia is doing" no matter what the subject is. You always refuse to acknowledge evidence. You never mention sources. A typical troll.

What difference does it make if all tariffs are going up? You will end up paying more. 30 or 40% more but you will pay more than last year.

At least I'm citing some articles, unlike you! When was last time you provided a source for your information? Mostly made-up "facts" with no sources and zero credibility. 

Well that's really cool. You're having good time, laughing while your compatriots are dying in Donbas? Great success! BTW, when are you planning to join them, huh?

If the author of the topic writes about rockets, then my answer will be correct too

Why do you tell such fairy tales? Here are the real facts:

During the 1991 Gulf War, the Iraqis fired modified R-17s at the territories of Israel (43 launches, 40 successful), Saudi Arabia (48 launches, 44 successful), Qatar (1 launch) and Bahrain (1 launch).
A total of 93 missiles were launched, 5 missiles went off trajectory during launch initiation and 2 during flight.

Scud missile fire caused great destruction in Israel and Saudi Arabia. In Israel, 11727 square meters of various buildings were destroyed. In Saudi Arabia, the destruction reached 17865 square meters.

I will tell you secrets - in Ukraine, "ancient" Petriot complexes, very qualitatively and effectively shoot down not Scud, but quite well, according to Russian statements, of course, "having no analogues", missiles Kalibr, Kinzhal, modified C300 (ground-to-ground). This is despite the fact that they are "hypersonic, can't be shot down by anything, and in general are not available for shooting down". This is understandable, according to Russia's fantasies

But back to energy carriers, I'll be 100% on topic
For the "take-off" of energy prices, it is necessary to fulfill one of 2 conditions :
1. growth of demand for energy carriers
2. a sharp reduction in supply on the market

Therefore, expectations are possible only in the presence of one (or two) of these factors. As of today, the market has:
1. Decline in demand (subsidence of the Chinese economy)
2. Not significant decrease in production (compensated by the decline in demand)

News feeds confirm the decline in oil prices: Oil prices continue to fall despite OPEC+ restrictions. It is noted that the cost of February futures for Brent crude oil on the London exchange ICE Futures is 78.26 dollars per barrel, which is 0.62 dollars (0.79%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, December 1, the price of contracts fell by $1.98 (2.5%) to $78.88 per barrel.

Also, WTI crude futures for January on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.51 (0.69%), to $ 73.56 per barrel.

Both Brent and WTI lost about 2% in price last week.

According to Craig Erlam, chief analyst at OANDA, traders either do not believe that OPEC+ countries will stick to the agreed terms or do not consider the production cuts sufficient.

It is added that other experts also see signals of a split within the alliance, which could affect its ability to achieve its target, let alone further production cuts.

I think it's mainly strong because Europe is not stupid enough to just trust some madmen like Russia for all their needs, they will of course buy from them if offered cheaply and when Russia stays calm, but when they go mad, they know what they could do and how to fix it, hell they were ready in an INSTANT to put out their wood stock to heat up the whole continent if they had to, and that shows how much they were ready for a case like this, they probably assumed Russia would go mad one day and they got some other method ready just in case.

So yeah, you are right that energy will not get too worse, plus I remember there were some nuclear factories too right? In France I think, was it? Not sure if those stay exist, but that should be more than enough.

The main reason is war so whenever war continues between two countries then both countries stop the process of export or import and also other countries faces troubles because sometime these countries act as a way through which energy is transfer among countries. So all countries are facing difficulties and the percentage of energy resources become limited therefore less the energy sources more will be its price.

War can destroy the happiness of individuals and also it is the reason behind bad economy of a country as a consequence of which inflation increases day by day. Those countries where war take place takes years to recover back to original position because war destroy everything from materials to individual's life.

Well "Mr. 100% truth", let's continue

Read your posts in other threads, about the unacceptable rise in gas prices and other nonsense, where you even cited some photos from the fence .
Let's start from the beginning. This topic, opened by respected pooya87, concerns the issue of hydrocarbons ... And then you suddenly "jump" from the topic, where as always you shit yourself, and instead of gas you cite information not about the EU, but about one country, where POSSIBLY, in the FUTURE year, will raise ... the cost of electricity

Did you write that, or ?

And you, in the above article, just read the headline, but did not read the article itself, as always
And the article says that if you don't like the tariffs of this provider... choose another one

"One way customers can prepare for higher costs is to scrutinize their paperwork from energy suppliers and see if there is an offer on the market that better suits their needs. We first recommend finding out what price will apply to the customer after the price ceiling ends , i.e. from 1.1. 2024 ."

That should have been the end of it, but I will add: you cited a great article about the EU, except that you forgot to mention that the article talks about, and clearly states that this was happening.... early 2023 Accidentally forgot to note ? It's now the end of 2023, and you can find charts of EU prices at the current time. I have cited from several times for a reason, where indeed from spring 2022 to the first half of 2023, prices were high, for reasons known to all, and then.... the graphs go down.

Bottom line: all your pathetic and primitive attempts to manipulate the data are easily verifiable, and cause nothing but laughter

You're very good at lying! I never said that someone is going to freeze, certainly not. We're just going to pay a lot more that's it. Alive and poor. War tax. No EU citizen has ever given his/her permission to help Ukraine. EU (de-facto US sockpuppet) governments did that.  


https://www.kurzy.cz/zpravy/749707-eru-planuje-zvysit-regulovane-ceny-za-distribuci-energie-az-o-70--jak-se-na-zmenu-pripravit/


https://bnn-news.com/gaso-plans-to-increase-natural-gas-distribution-service-tariffs-in-latvia-next-year-251838


Unlike you, I always provide valid sources.


Really?



Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20231026-1

Yes, just ~1000% growth, no big deal! Great success! Gimme money, gimme tanks, gimme gimme gimme, but you realize these things are not free and you'll have to pay back? Not Mr. Zelensky, no, it's YOU will have to pay.

Do you even know what this topic is about?

Let me help you one more time. This topic is about the conflict in West Asia and possibility of it entering specifically the Red Sea which could affect the energy trade routes
It has nothing to do with Russia, current oil/gas prices in Europe, German budget, etc.

As I've already explained in previous posts (which I know you haven't bothered reading any) the chances of this possibility has gone down as time passed. At this point we don't have any reason to speculate a spike because of the events analyzed in this topic because the Armed Forces of Yemen are only seizing any ships that belongs to the terrorist organization Israel. And nobody has the capability to do anything about it hence there won't be any expansion of the conflict.

In Russian folklore, there's a saying - "who cares about what, but the louse about the bath" So you - everyone will freeze, there will be no help for Ukraine, blah blah blah Such squeals have been heard since 2022, when the "great and invincible army of russia", made a terrorist large-scale attack on Ukraine, hoping that no one will help it. Now the Kremlin Fuhrer is whining from his bunker - stop helping Ukraine ! 

But let's put aside the morbid complexes of pro-Russian agitators and get back to the topic

Let's start with general educational questions. The price of gas transportation is not a synonym for "gas price". It is a service provided by private companies to deliver gas. And in the EU it can't just be raised. That is why the author of the post did not provide links to real facts
Secondly, transportation of gas by private companies has no impact on financial and technical assistance to the country affected by Russian terrorism. For example Germany (they probably don't know yet that gas transportation will become more expensive  ) in the next year's budget will include additional (in relation to 2023) 4 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine. Unexpected, isn't it ?

And about energy prices.  Very briefly - oil is not growing, and there are no objective reasons. Gas is stable and is at the level until 2022. Oil is also showing a good chart.

Yes, definitely so. Recently, several gas distribution companies in EU announced that gas distribution prices and/or gas prices are going up 30-35% starting from next year. Which means more pain for common EU folks. Which in turn means less support for Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia have already turned their backs on Ukraine. Governments are taking billions in loans to sponsor Ukraine war. They ran out of money and are now cowardly trying to push all expenses on their people. 

There is no defense that can prevent a ballistic, cruise or drone strike conducted by an advanced military like Yemen (read Iranian technologies) from successfully reaching their targets. Proof of it is in the US-Arab coalition invasion of Yemen where after Iranian support began the Yemenis defenders could easily hit heavily defended Saudi, Emirati and even US bases in a 2000 radius and no amount of defense could stop it.

Of course that doesn't mean the air defenses can not should any of it down specially when they use smaller, slower and cheaper projectiles with small quantities instead of the heavier, faster and more expensive ones. For example in all their attacks against Eilat some of the projectiles were shot down and some went through hitting their targets.

That's not a good comparison for many reasons.
For starters those were old and weak SCUD missiles with short range that were modified to barely go far enough to reach the occupied lands but today were are talking about advanced long range ballistic and cruise missiles that are designed to hit targets with pinpoint accuracy with a 2000+ range. Some even reach hypersonic speed, something that is impossible to defend against.

More importantly Saddam didn't even want to hit Israel. In fact many of the Iraqi officials after Saddam's demise stated that Saddam had talked with Israel about this attack and planned it together!
Not to mention that these missiles didn't have a warhead to even cause any actual damage. In other words this was a big fakeout. In fact if you check out the reported casualties, the handful died of suffocation after they wore gas masks wrong out of panic!!! which had nothing to do with missiles Saddam launched most of which landed in the desert.

His plan wasn't to cause chaos, his plan was to change the Arab population opinion when US was attacking Iraq with the help of Arabs. He was trying to pretend that he is still the "leader of Arab world" and of course he wanted to pretend that he supports the Palestinian cause.

The main reason I would suspect for energy prices rising is that USA has expended its reserves for quite a long time and cannot continue to do so forever.  If that supply is no longer there and there is any constriction elsewhere with demand continuing to rise post covid it would be enough to bring prices up.  The middle east effect as mentioned has not yet appeared in the sharp way its done so previously and I would not guess on that expansion of the troubles as its unfortunately not a new scenario despite the many deaths.  The missile launch from Yemen is surprising but not the threat it could be if defenses were not already prepared for such a thing, I can remember Saddam launching scud missiles at Israel many years ago in a desperate attempt to cause chaos.