I don’t think that energy prices in the world will increase significantly in the near future.
Now Russia is under enormous pressure from China due to the fact that Russia has lost a huge European market for its energy resources and wants to increase their supplies to China fivefold. Taking advantage of this, China demanded new gas discounts from Russia and no longer wants to build the joint mega-project of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline. But if the pipeline is not built, Russia will have nowhere to send huge volumes of gas.
Russia's budget for next year provides that the average gas price will be $297.3 per thousand cubic meters versus $501.6 for Europe and Turkey previously. The discount for China in 2024 will increase to 46%: gas from Power of Siberia-1 will cost $271.6 per thousand cubic meters, and for Turkey and Europe - $481.7. It is unlikely that such cheap gas and in large quantities will contribute to an increase in its world price.
In fact, gas should not rise in price due to the losses that Russia incurs, selling it to the East very cheaply in a hopeless situation.
Source:
https://m.gazeta.ua/ru/articles/world-life/_putin-v-tupike-kitaj-davit-na-rossiyu/1165829
Topic: Is energy prices about to shoot up? - page 3. (Read 1081 times)
A quick update on some stuff that happened over the past 20 days. Specially about the following part since the chances of it happening has just increased today:
Additionally we have officials in Yemen reporting that Saudi-US coalition has activated their proxies inside their soil (that mostly consists of ISIS terrorist cells) to distract them from their targets in occupied Palestine. This is also a clear break of the cease fire between Yemen and US-Arab coalition which could re-start the war as I explained in the quote above.
Armed forces of Yemen have already shot down a $32 million US aircraft, attacked 2 US Navy destroyers and damaged one at least, seized at least 1 Israeli ships in Red Sea and attacked another in the Indian Ocean.
Now this is the part that made me update this topic. According to the Guardian, US regime is contemplating an attack on Yemeni positions.
My speculation:
The data we have from the statements like the one in the Guardian is pointing to more escalation and Aramco being blown up. However, if we get realistic I don't think this is going to happen. I'd say this is a bluff made only for the media. US regime is trying to keep the illusion of strength alive and say that despite the fact that US military is being attacked over a dozen times a day with heavy casualties, they still can respond!
The reason is simple and in two parts.
The obvious one is that if US enters any war at this scale, they'll lose everything elsewhere (meaning against Russia and against China) very quickly and very easily.
The less obvious one (unless if you are familiar with the true military strength US wants to face) is that if US regime actually attacks Yemen, the Yemenis respond is no longer two light and slow cruise missiles that were shot at USS Carney a month ago that damaged it a little and forced them to bring the destroyer to Djibouti port to be quickly fixed. Instead it will be more heavier supersonic cruise missiles that rip these warships apart. Maybe we could even see the 1.6 ton supersonic cruise missile Abu-Mahdi in action
and this is not something US military can ever face.
The other thing to consider is the possibility of Yemenis attacks expanding to include more legitimate targets in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Both oil rich countries and both legitimate targets because their coalition with US has invaded Yemen and it would only be retaliation according to international laws. Also legitimate targets because they both are helping the terrorist organization commit genocide in Palestine (eg. UAE fighter jets are reported to be participating in bombing Gaza in the past days).
That can translate into much more than just oil price rising, there will be oil shortage.
Saudi and Emirati help which was somewhat speculation and weak proofs, is now a solid fact since their air defense and air force has already shot down multiple projectiles coming from Yemen that were targeting the terrorist positions.That can translate into much more than just oil price rising, there will be oil shortage.
Additionally we have officials in Yemen reporting that Saudi-US coalition has activated their proxies inside their soil (that mostly consists of ISIS terrorist cells) to distract them from their targets in occupied Palestine. This is also a clear break of the cease fire between Yemen and US-Arab coalition which could re-start the war as I explained in the quote above.
Armed forces of Yemen have already shot down a $32 million US aircraft, attacked 2 US Navy destroyers and damaged one at least, seized at least 1 Israeli ships in Red Sea and attacked another in the Indian Ocean.
Now this is the part that made me update this topic. According to the Guardian, US regime is contemplating an attack on Yemeni positions.
There are also reports that the US is willing to launch an attack on Houthi military sites in and around Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, as well as its port operations room, unless the ship seized on Sunday, the Galaxy Leader, is released.
This is a significant development in our speculation in this topic. If this actually happens, one of the targets apart from US military positions and warships is going to be the Saudi Aramco. But this time it won't be a controlled attack to "reduce" its production by 50%, it could be a total destruction of the entire Aramco facility. That is a whopping 9 million barrels per day going up in smokes. That's about a third of OPEC total production...My speculation:
The data we have from the statements like the one in the Guardian is pointing to more escalation and Aramco being blown up. However, if we get realistic I don't think this is going to happen. I'd say this is a bluff made only for the media. US regime is trying to keep the illusion of strength alive and say that despite the fact that US military is being attacked over a dozen times a day with heavy casualties, they still can respond!
The reason is simple and in two parts.
The obvious one is that if US enters any war at this scale, they'll lose everything elsewhere (meaning against Russia and against China) very quickly and very easily.
The less obvious one (unless if you are familiar with the true military strength US wants to face) is that if US regime actually attacks Yemen, the Yemenis respond is no longer two light and slow cruise missiles that were shot at USS Carney a month ago that damaged it a little and forced them to bring the destroyer to Djibouti port to be quickly fixed. Instead it will be more heavier supersonic cruise missiles that rip these warships apart. Maybe we could even see the 1.6 ton supersonic cruise missile Abu-Mahdi in action
and this is not something US military can ever face. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
Thanks for the additional info about the rest of the routes. I should add that a problem that is usually neglected about the added time is that it also adds to the costs. A shipment that takes 30 days costs a lot in terms of transport fees, the insurance, etc. Not to mention that some of these routes are risky specially in certain regions close to Africa with the maritime piracy and all that.Quote
Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.
With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."
This is one of the reasons why sanctions on Russia has been mostly a joke and it hurt Europe more than it hurt Russia. They all had to go through third parties to keep their economic relations with Russia. For example if I'm not mistaken it was either Armenia or Georgia that set a record in vehicle imports from Europe right after EU sanctioned Russia! Obviously the European car manufacturers were desperately trying to hang on to the Russian market even at the cost of adding the overhead of these proxies.With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."
It's the same with energy, a lot of it went through proxies like Turkey and things like gas turned into LNG which is more expensive than before. And of course as the article also pointed out the "big shuffle" took place too where the customers and sources of energy changed creating even more overhead.
This is not about one warfare BUT all the wars around the globe including Russian Ukraine rivalry too.
I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.
So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.
Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!
....
I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.
So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.
Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!
....
It's silly to deny that the logistics of supplying petroleum products have changed. But let's look at the problem a little wider to understand what really affects or can affect the price of oil on the market.
1. Before the terrorist country attacked Ukraine, supplies to the EU went through two ports: Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Oil supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan through the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga will amount to an estimated 7.1 million tons in January 2023, which is the highest level since 2019. Such a forecast based on information from traders gives Reuters.
The publication writes that by the end of January, shipments of Russian Urals and Kazakh KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil) from the Russian ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga will increase by almost 50% compared to December 2022. According to Reuters, Russia shipped 4.7 million tons of Urals and KEBCO crude oil from Baltic ports in December. That is, we do not observe a special drop here.
However, the article you cited says that deliveries to the EU have stopped. Question - no dissonance ? I.e. supplies have stopped, but their volume has grown at the level of 2022
To clarify: supplies... remained. The point is that the supply restrictions were for direct contracts with a terrorist country. But... the shadow fleet and "cunning" middlemen found a way out - they buy this oil at a big discount (Russia has to dispose of oil somewhere, as Russia has no modern infrastructure for storage or transfer of oil), then mix it with other grades of oil, and as a result they get "non-Russian oil", which is successfully sent to European refineries. A nuance that all sides do not like to mention
The EU does not like the embargo being circumvented, but the EU likes the fact that they have oil, Russia keeps quiet because it gets at least some money and does not need to freeze the wells from which oil goes to Ust-Luga.Primorsk is a rather large HUB for oil loading, but it was such until the AFU taught the Russian fleet to sail where it is not supposed to. Yes, the volume of shipments through this port has decreased.
2. And what do you get - Russian oil from 2 ports ruins the whole world oil market ? Of course not !
The world market is formed by supply and demand on a global scale. For example, not so long ago the Chinese economy consumed a huge amount of oil, and influenced the formation of the price. Now China and its economy are going through bad hours, and as a consequence "Data from China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, has also raised doubts about demand prospects, Reuters adds.".3. Supply. This is what several countries are now trying to manipulate by cutting oil production. But as we can see, they have been cutting oil production for a long time, but the market is not reacting the way they wanted: "Oil prices fall to 3-month lows...". And then there's a problem that was there in the '70s. Production was cut, the price dropped, and... the supplying countries started to miss out on huge sums of money. So they started dumping more cheap oil to make up for the lost profits. Which we're likely to see in the near future as well.
4. Market sabotage and economic terrorism. There is also such a way to influence the oil market. This is the card that someone is trying to play in the Middle East, trying to draw the main oil-producing region into the flames of a major war, which will disrupt the production and supply of oil from the region to the world market.
This is not about one warfare BUT all the wars around the globe including Russian Ukraine rivalry too.
I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.
So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.
Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!
Reference Article.
I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.
So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.
Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!
Quote
LONDON
Oil trade routes are now at least five times longer than they were prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, raising the prospect of increased emissions from longer shipping routes.
While Europe shifted away from Russian suppliers and toward those in West Africa, Latin America, and the US, Russia shifted 90% of its crude exports, which were originally destined for European markets, to those in India and China.
Before the war, the voyage of a Russian oil ship from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk to European ports in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium took five to six days because Europe was Russia's main oil export destination.
However, after European sanctions on Russian crude supplies came into effect in December 2022, Russian oil exports to ports in northwest Europe ground to a halt.
"This means that Europe, which used to be supplied by Russia, needed to find oil elsewhere, and that elsewhere is pretty much a combination of West Africa, Latin America and the US. All of those (destinations) are much longer freight routes than from Russia's Baltic Sea to northwest Europe," Viktor Katona, the lead crude analyst of commodity data and analytics firm Kpler, told Anadolu.
"It was a five- or six-day journey, but today's average voyage from West Africa or Latin America to Europe is about 25 days, which is five times longer than it used to be."
Brazil's crude exports to Europe increased from 236,959 barrels per day in February 2022 to 325,116 barrels per day in March 2023, the highest among Latin American countries. According to Kpler data, Brazilian exports reached a record high of 491,000 barrels per day in February this year, more than doubling the volume in a year.
The average journey from Brazil to Europe takes between 20 and 30 days, depending on the destination in Europe, with Spain and Portugal being the nearest neighbors and Germany and the Netherlands being the farthest away.
Mexican exports to Europe remained relatively at the same levels after the war, while Guyana's exports to the continent reached 270,000 barrels a day from almost zero before the war.
Trinidad and Tobacco have seen a continuous crude flow to Europe in the last eight months.
The Netherlands holds one of the major oil centers in Rotterdam, while Italy, Portugal, Germany and France are the top destination countries for post-war Latin American crude volumes in Europe.
Nigeria and Angola emerge as largest West African crude suppliers to Europe
More crude supplies from West African countries are making the longer voyage of approximately 25 days to Europe, filling the void left by the absence of Russian crude.
"The US, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and all of West Africa are all trying to supply in areas where Russia was forced to vacate," said Jim Mitchell, an oil research manager of supply chain and commodities research at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
While Nigeria became the biggest supplier to Europe among West African countries, Angola increased crude exports the most. Angola's crude shipments to Europe showed a sustained rise since the beginning of the war, reaching over 300,000 barrels per day from an average of 33,000 barrels a day in February last year.
The Netherlands saw the biggest rise in crude flows from West African countries after the war.
Crude flows from the US to Europe increased significantly as the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and Canada increased their crude imports from the US.
The UK's crude imports from the US rose from an average of 289,192 barrels a day in February 2022 to over 400,000 barrels in post-war months, while the Netherlands' imports reached over 510,000 barrels per day in March 2023, almost doubling compared to a year earlier.
The majority of US crude loads from US Gulf ports to Europe take an average of 20 days.
Greatest difference in travel time is from Russia to India
Russia's oil exports are taking longer journeys as India and China have emerged as the country's top export destinations.
Russian exports to these countries begin in the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, travel along the Baltic Sea, circumnavigate the Danish Islands, cross the British Straits, Gibraltar, Malta, Sicily, and the Suez Canal, and then continue through the Red Sea to India, which takes about 30-35 days, with the route to China taking 10 days longer.
However, Katona explained that not all crude grades take the slow 40–45-day delivery route because if ESPO blend crude shipments load from Russia's Far East, the journey to China takes only about five days due to its proximity to Chinese shores.
According to Kpler data, Russia's oil exports to India, including Ural, SBL, and ESPO, increased from zero in February 2022 to the highest level since the war in March 2023, at 1.99 million barrels per day.
"The amount of Russian crude going to India has been increasing for nine consecutive months. It is pretty much a bromance or love story between the two countries," Katona said.
Since the start of the war, Russia's crude exports to China have remained at an average of one million barrels per day, while Sri Lanka and Myanmar have emerged as significant export destinations for Russian crude, rising from marginal imports prior to the war.
Longer shipping routes are likely to raise emissions from shipping, an industry that accounts for 3% of global carbon emissions.
"The world trade has become significantly more polluting than it used to be before, that is an absolute fact. The biggest increase in terms of voyage times into Asia is Russia to India. So this is definitely increasing emissions from shipping compared to five days into Rotterdam. Likewise, US, West African and Latin American exports to Europe also mean more emissions," Katona said.
Shortest Russian supply route now Türkiye
Katona contended that Türkiye is the one country that is reducing overall shipping emissions for Russian crude and oil products, with a typical voyage from Russia’s only crude export terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast to Türkiye lasting three to four days.
"It is the shortest Russian supply route right now," he said, noting that Türkiye has been importing significant quantities of Russian crude and oil products.
Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.
With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."
Middle East still Asia's largest supplier
Middle East exports to Asia, according to Katona, may be the exception in terms of longer voyages, as producer countries appear to be focusing more on supplying Asia, the closest buyer of Middle East crude.
Despite the increase in Russian oil exports to China and India, Middle Eastern countries are still the biggest crude suppliers to the Asian region.
Saudi Arabia's crude exports to Asia stood at an average of 5.5 million barrels a day for the last 18 months, while the UAE's exports remain close to 3 million barrels a day, data shows.
Oil trade routes are now at least five times longer than they were prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, raising the prospect of increased emissions from longer shipping routes.
While Europe shifted away from Russian suppliers and toward those in West Africa, Latin America, and the US, Russia shifted 90% of its crude exports, which were originally destined for European markets, to those in India and China.
Before the war, the voyage of a Russian oil ship from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk to European ports in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium took five to six days because Europe was Russia's main oil export destination.
However, after European sanctions on Russian crude supplies came into effect in December 2022, Russian oil exports to ports in northwest Europe ground to a halt.
"This means that Europe, which used to be supplied by Russia, needed to find oil elsewhere, and that elsewhere is pretty much a combination of West Africa, Latin America and the US. All of those (destinations) are much longer freight routes than from Russia's Baltic Sea to northwest Europe," Viktor Katona, the lead crude analyst of commodity data and analytics firm Kpler, told Anadolu.
"It was a five- or six-day journey, but today's average voyage from West Africa or Latin America to Europe is about 25 days, which is five times longer than it used to be."
Brazil's crude exports to Europe increased from 236,959 barrels per day in February 2022 to 325,116 barrels per day in March 2023, the highest among Latin American countries. According to Kpler data, Brazilian exports reached a record high of 491,000 barrels per day in February this year, more than doubling the volume in a year.
The average journey from Brazil to Europe takes between 20 and 30 days, depending on the destination in Europe, with Spain and Portugal being the nearest neighbors and Germany and the Netherlands being the farthest away.
Mexican exports to Europe remained relatively at the same levels after the war, while Guyana's exports to the continent reached 270,000 barrels a day from almost zero before the war.
Trinidad and Tobacco have seen a continuous crude flow to Europe in the last eight months.
The Netherlands holds one of the major oil centers in Rotterdam, while Italy, Portugal, Germany and France are the top destination countries for post-war Latin American crude volumes in Europe.
Nigeria and Angola emerge as largest West African crude suppliers to Europe
More crude supplies from West African countries are making the longer voyage of approximately 25 days to Europe, filling the void left by the absence of Russian crude.
"The US, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and all of West Africa are all trying to supply in areas where Russia was forced to vacate," said Jim Mitchell, an oil research manager of supply chain and commodities research at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
While Nigeria became the biggest supplier to Europe among West African countries, Angola increased crude exports the most. Angola's crude shipments to Europe showed a sustained rise since the beginning of the war, reaching over 300,000 barrels per day from an average of 33,000 barrels a day in February last year.
The Netherlands saw the biggest rise in crude flows from West African countries after the war.
Crude flows from the US to Europe increased significantly as the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and Canada increased their crude imports from the US.
The UK's crude imports from the US rose from an average of 289,192 barrels a day in February 2022 to over 400,000 barrels in post-war months, while the Netherlands' imports reached over 510,000 barrels per day in March 2023, almost doubling compared to a year earlier.
The majority of US crude loads from US Gulf ports to Europe take an average of 20 days.
Greatest difference in travel time is from Russia to India
Russia's oil exports are taking longer journeys as India and China have emerged as the country's top export destinations.
Russian exports to these countries begin in the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, travel along the Baltic Sea, circumnavigate the Danish Islands, cross the British Straits, Gibraltar, Malta, Sicily, and the Suez Canal, and then continue through the Red Sea to India, which takes about 30-35 days, with the route to China taking 10 days longer.
However, Katona explained that not all crude grades take the slow 40–45-day delivery route because if ESPO blend crude shipments load from Russia's Far East, the journey to China takes only about five days due to its proximity to Chinese shores.
According to Kpler data, Russia's oil exports to India, including Ural, SBL, and ESPO, increased from zero in February 2022 to the highest level since the war in March 2023, at 1.99 million barrels per day.
"The amount of Russian crude going to India has been increasing for nine consecutive months. It is pretty much a bromance or love story between the two countries," Katona said.
Since the start of the war, Russia's crude exports to China have remained at an average of one million barrels per day, while Sri Lanka and Myanmar have emerged as significant export destinations for Russian crude, rising from marginal imports prior to the war.
Longer shipping routes are likely to raise emissions from shipping, an industry that accounts for 3% of global carbon emissions.
"The world trade has become significantly more polluting than it used to be before, that is an absolute fact. The biggest increase in terms of voyage times into Asia is Russia to India. So this is definitely increasing emissions from shipping compared to five days into Rotterdam. Likewise, US, West African and Latin American exports to Europe also mean more emissions," Katona said.
Shortest Russian supply route now Türkiye
Katona contended that Türkiye is the one country that is reducing overall shipping emissions for Russian crude and oil products, with a typical voyage from Russia’s only crude export terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast to Türkiye lasting three to four days.
"It is the shortest Russian supply route right now," he said, noting that Türkiye has been importing significant quantities of Russian crude and oil products.
Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.
With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."
Middle East still Asia's largest supplier
Middle East exports to Asia, according to Katona, may be the exception in terms of longer voyages, as producer countries appear to be focusing more on supplying Asia, the closest buyer of Middle East crude.
Despite the increase in Russian oil exports to China and India, Middle Eastern countries are still the biggest crude suppliers to the Asian region.
Saudi Arabia's crude exports to Asia stood at an average of 5.5 million barrels a day for the last 18 months, while the UAE's exports remain close to 3 million barrels a day, data shows.
Reference Article.
By the way, are we going to freeze in Germany this winter?
You gotta ask the propaganda centers in Germany that started the "freeze" FUD.By the way how is energy giant Uniper doing?
What's interesting is that oil price has not shown any significant reaction to the events of past couple of days.
Possibly because the routes have not yet been threatened by the presence of terrorists and their supporters. But we still need to wait and see what the next move is, this is only speculation for now.
Let me know what you predict.
What's interesting is that oil prices have fallen down, slightly, but have fallen down.Possibly because the routes have not yet been threatened by the presence of terrorists and their supporters. But we still need to wait and see what the next move is, this is only speculation for now.
Let me know what you predict.
November 1st, the time when you created this thread, Brent Crude Oil price was $84.63
November 10 - Brent Crude Oil worth $81.70.
Crude Oil WTI, November 1st - $80.44
Cure Oil WTI, November 10 - $77.35
By the way, are we going to freeze in Germany this winter?
So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.
The only solution is to end the occupation, not just occupation of Palestine but other places too like Syria, Iraq, etc. That is the only way to reach peace and global energy price stability.In any case, speaking of prices if you look at the yearly charts there has been a huge volatility over the past two years. For example this year we had the price start climbing from $72 in June up to $94 in September.
There are a ton of strategic reserves being released to bring it down. For example US is currently sitting at its lowest levels of reserves because of all the oil they've been desperately releasing to keep the price down.
This has been somewhat successful too since after hitting $94 the price started coming down and is currently sitting at $82 (these are Brent Crude prices).
If I wanted to update the situation on the title question I'd say the chance of a price shoot up has gone down (which is a good news as I pointed out previously) but things haven't gone back to normal yet and chance is not zero specially since Yemen recently shot down the $32 million US aircraft and another one had a "mishap" close to Lebanon (shot down?).
Additionally I also don't see this volatility ending any time soon, we may continue seeing swings down to $70 and back up to $100 and that is also terrible for the economy.
I wonder why the ICC is silent? The world is waiting for the arrest warrant for the international war criminal Netanyahu (crimes confirmed by the UN)...
Because the world is "rigged" in favor of US regime and its proxies. Organizations such as UN only carry the name "international" but in reality they are American organizations. For example ever since Obama it has been general knowledge that UN is ordered to only fulfill US interests.Besides, the crimes against humanity committed by US and its proxies are not new. There are dozens of UN resolutions against Israel and they never gave a shit about any of them. There are 0 sanctions against this terrorist organization and any resolution reaching the UN security council is vetoed by US!
P.S. Future of Netanyahu is going to be very funny IMO. I don't think he will ever see an international court, there is a good chance he will be executed by the Israelis themselves. These past days Tel-Aviv is seeing mass protests again, even more so after the news about 50+ Israeli prisoners having been killed because of Israel bombing of Gaza.
That is, do you consider the strikes of the Israeli Defense Forces against the international terrorist organization Hamas... terrorism?
Of course the Israeli terrorists have to call their civilian victims terrorists. ISIS use to call the civilians they killed terrorists too. But in the real world according to the international law, people of the invaded country can use force to repel the invaders. Exactly like what people of Ukraine are doing these days. Ukrainian people are using force against the invading Russians, just like Palestinians are using force against the invading Zionists.
That is unless you are calling Ukrainian people terrorists too?!
Careful there, for God's sake! You can make the poor troll's brain explode trying to find the way out of this situation.
No no - I'm not surprised by your statements! I would be surprised if you said otherwise
I'm not surprised that a Zionist is supporting the Zionist apartheid regime either The bottom line is that the UAE did not take the side of Hamas and its puppet masters, and will not play to reduce oil production.
UAE as a member of OPEC has already reduced production. Like others, at this point none of them plan to reduce production and this has nothing to do with the genocide that is happening in Palestine.It is now profitable for the UAE to sell expensive oil for a completely stable and liquid dollar, but not for rupees, yuan, or, worse, rubles.
LOLhttps://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-first-china-uae-gas-deal-in-yuan-a-new-blow-to-dollar-dominance
Qatar has signed an almost 30-year contract for gas supplies to the EU. Qatar also chose normal, stable buyers,
LOLhttps://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/china-signs-major-lng-deal-qatar-beijings-gulf-push-continues
Yeah, great facts with valid sources which prove this pathetic bozo DrBeer is claiming just the opposite of truth.
In several countries that import energy from countries/regions directly affected by war, it is possible that energy prices will increase due to delays in shipping cargo from sea routes. This delay in energy delivery will probably create a domino effect which will increase prices for many products and transportation that use energy.
Maybe the short-term solution for countries affected by this will be to release their oil and gas reserves to reduce prices, but this is not a long-term solution. Moreover, if the war drags on, there will be high inflation which will put many countries' economies at risk.
So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.
Maybe the short-term solution for countries affected by this will be to release their oil and gas reserves to reduce prices, but this is not a long-term solution. Moreover, if the war drags on, there will be high inflation which will put many countries' economies at risk.
So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.
The big bang expected for oil prices this year is turning into a whimper.
Just a few weeks ago, Brent crude was on the verge of finally justifying industry forecasts of a return to the $100 a barrel level as record demand for the fuel and Saudi Arabia's supply cuts depleted global oil inventories. An outbreak of conflict in the Middle East shortly afterward increased the risk of a price spike.
But the benchmark fell to a three-month low below $80 a barrel on Wednesday. Supply concerns are giving way to doubts about falling refinery profits in China and Europe, weak physical cargo trade and an uncertain U.S. economic outlook.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/oil-s-big-bang-turning-to-whimper-as-economic-outlook-darkens
Just a few weeks ago, Brent crude was on the verge of finally justifying industry forecasts of a return to the $100 a barrel level as record demand for the fuel and Saudi Arabia's supply cuts depleted global oil inventories. An outbreak of conflict in the Middle East shortly afterward increased the risk of a price spike.
But the benchmark fell to a three-month low below $80 a barrel on Wednesday. Supply concerns are giving way to doubts about falling refinery profits in China and Europe, weak physical cargo trade and an uncertain U.S. economic outlook.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/oil-s-big-bang-turning-to-whimper-as-economic-outlook-darkens
Then there's the reality that the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a crucial chokepoint in both trade and energy, right? Because it will have an impact on our global economy.
That's right. It is also interesting to know that China's first overseas military base is in Djibouti which is the other side of Bab al-Mandab from Yemen. That is another indication of the importance of this chokepoint for the international trade.It is also interesting to know that this is one of the reasons why China started the One Road One Belt initiative to eliminate the need for all these "sea routes".
According to my knowledge, Yemen is currently in an uncertain condition due to a civil war. The Houthis may seize control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. And when this happens, there may be a jump in the price of electricity and other items.
Then there's the reality that the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a crucial chokepoint in both trade and energy, right? Because it will have an impact on our global economy.
Then there's the reality that the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a crucial chokepoint in both trade and energy, right? Because it will have an impact on our global economy.
I think the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are the spark for a full scale war in the region, with Iran following them when it happens and that will destabilize the whole middle east. Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, so Israel will call in help from the US and that will escalate into a much bigger conflict.
What you are trying to explain, this is still a matter of pros and cons. This is a complex and decades-long conflict that involves various elements, including territorial, historical, religious and political issues. The involvement of Lebanese militants, Hezbollah and other Arab countries is a form of solidarity as Arabs with Palestine, which has long been colonized by the Zionist Israel. Israel is an occupying country that is trying to annex the entire territory of Palestine, so that some Palestinians are forced to become refugees and live in various countries and refugee camps, while some other people are reduced in the largest prison in the world, the open prison in the Gaza Strip and all their access is closed and their lives are deprived by Israeli Zionists. And I think it is the western countries that turn a blind eye to this incident, including the United States, which is said to be a country that upholds human rights. But why did the US turn a blind eye to the victims of the war that took place in Palestine and to the deprivation of the right to live freely as a Palestinian people.
Quote from: Kakmakr link
The market will react because of the fear of a worst-case scenario, where a conflict in Israel magnifies throughout the region and affects global oil trade. A ripple in the pond ..always cause waves throughout the global markets and it just increase as the conflict escalate.
Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
Trade routes will certainly be hampered and cause energy prices to soar, so that the global economy and trade will be hampered and slowed down.
so Israel will call in help from the US and that will escalate into a much bigger conflict.
Ever since the first week it has been US that is fighting Palestinians with their aircraft, ships and soldiers on the ground. In fact over the past 2 weeks the Palestinian freedom fighters have caught at least a dozen US marines as poisoners of war.Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz
It's not just the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-backed Houthis control vast swathes of Yeman, and they can block the oil transport through Red Sea, if they want.
It is not in Iran's doctrine to shut down any trade routes, nor is it in its allies doctrine. However, the actions of United States regime will have consequences one of which is these chokepoints being shut down.That means if US regime decides to declare war on Iran they would put Iran in a position to have no choice but to respond to the aggression. In such a response, US navy is one of the legitimate targets and when an aircraft carrier group sinks in shallow waters of Persian Gulf, Suez Canal, Strait of Bab al-Mandab, Strait of Gibraltar or Panama Canal it makes maritime travel in those regions impossible.
We saw a small version of how it looks in the 80's when maritime transfer got shut down for a little while after US decided to declare war on Iran and Iran had no choice but to respond. On 14 April 1988 when Iran sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts in response to US aggression against Iranian soil, it took US military days to try and salvage the frigate and it finally took a 29000-ton heavy lift ship, a "monster" called Mighty Servant and $1.3 million to carry it to the repair port (~$90 million in total for repairs to make her seaworthy again).
That was just a small hole in the frigate's hull back when Iran had nothing and was fighting with repurposed fishing boats and shoulder launched RPGs that did nothing to a destroyer. In 2023 such response would be with heavy and large number of cruise and ballistic missiles, loitering munitions, fastest torpedoes on earth and stealth submarines which would leave nothing to be salvaged
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Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
It's not just the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-backed Houthis control vast swathes of Yeman, and they can block the oil transport through Red Sea, if they want. That would mean that the entire crude oil production in GCC region is taken offline. As of now, the net production of crude for each GCC nation is as follows (barrels/day):
Saudi Arabia - 9,060,000
Iraq - 4,340,000
United Arab Emirates - 3,250,000
Kuwait - 2,590,000
Qatar - 1,320,000
Oman - 1,100,000
Bahrain - 180,000
As you can see, these nations amount for close to 25% of the global supply of crude.
I think the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are the spark for a full scale war in the region, with Iran following them when it happens and that will destabilize the whole middle east. Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, so Israel will call in help from the US and that will escalate into a much bigger conflict.
The market will react because of the fear of a worst-case scenario, where a conflict in Israel magnifies throughout the region and affects global oil trade. A ripple in the pond ..always cause waves throughout the global markets and it just increase as the conflict escalate.
Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
The market will react because of the fear of a worst-case scenario, where a conflict in Israel magnifies throughout the region and affects global oil trade. A ripple in the pond ..always cause waves throughout the global markets and it just increase as the conflict escalate.
Iran asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
That is, do you consider the strikes of the Israeli Defense Forces against the international terrorist organization Hamas... terrorism?
Of course the Israeli terrorists have to call their civilian victims terrorists. ISIS use to call the civilians they killed terrorists too. But in the real world according to the international law, people of the invaded country can use force to repel the invaders. Exactly like what people of Ukraine are doing these days. Ukrainian people are using force against the invading Russians, just like Palestinians are using force against the invading Zionists.
That is unless you are calling Ukrainian people terrorists too?!
Besides, Israeli terrorists are not fighting the armed forces of Palestine. They are murdering women and children. So far they have killed over 10000 innocent civilians, 4104 of which were children.
Not to mention that the Israeli terrorist targets are specifically civilian targets including hospitals and any medical centers, schools, concentration camps, press buildings and reporters, international aid groups such as UNRWA (UN agencies), even water tanks!
Even the ammunition the Israeli terrorists use are categorized as war crimes such as the phosphorous bombs they regularly drop on civilian concentrations that "boils" them to death..
No no - I'm not surprised by your statements! I would be surprised if you said otherwise
I'm not surprised that a Zionist is supporting the Zionist apartheid regime either The bottom line is that the UAE did not take the side of Hamas and its puppet masters, and will not play to reduce oil production.
UAE as a member of OPEC has already reduced production. Like others, at this point none of them plan to reduce production and this has nothing to do with the genocide that is happening in Palestine.It is now profitable for the UAE to sell expensive oil for a completely stable and liquid dollar, but not for rupees, yuan, or, worse, rubles.
LOLhttps://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-first-china-uae-gas-deal-in-yuan-a-new-blow-to-dollar-dominance
Qatar has signed an almost 30-year contract for gas supplies to the EU. Qatar also chose normal, stable buyers,
LOLhttps://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/china-signs-major-lng-deal-qatar-beijings-gulf-push-continues
The UAE showed its civilized face and chose to side with Israel.
One of the good things in every conflict is that the weasels show their true faces. Although it was not a surprise to know all dictatorships like UAE stand with the terrorist organization but making it clear as day is good news. Of course this all makes the next step easier, which would be the consequences of supporting terrorism, sending fuel for the bombers of Gaza and arms to be used in ethnic cleansing of Palestine.will be able to become an element of stabilization of the oil market.
Sending fighter jets, bombs and fuel for tanks and aircraft used in bombing civilians is not going to have any effect on the global oil market whatsoever. If anything it could decrease the global supply (as part of the supply is now going to "fuel" war) and could destabilize the market even more.That is, do you consider the strikes of the Israeli Defense Forces against the international terrorist organization Hamas... terrorism?
No no - I'm not surprised by your statements! I would be surprised if you said otherwise But this is beyond the scope of the topic.The bottom line is that the UAE did not take the side of Hamas and its puppet masters, and will not play to reduce oil production. It is now profitable for the UAE to sell expensive oil for a completely stable and liquid dollar, but not for rupees, yuan, or, worse, rubles. In this situation, the West will look for adequate suppliers, understanding where Hamas/Russia and others are going. And in general, there are fewer “those who like to destroy” in the Middle East - Qatar has signed an almost 30-year contract for gas supplies to the EU. Qatar also chose normal, stable buyers, and the EU chose an adequate, honest, predictable supplier. Therefore, it is most likely not worth expecting a long-term increase in oil/gas prices, because significant suppliers of the region are not interested in the development of the conflict and will not support it, choosing stability, business and mutually beneficial partnerships
Algeria taking Palestine side will cause tension in that area as well which they will also barricade their fleet close the Gibraltar strait. since they are taking this war as religious war, Algeria is a Muslim dominated country and pretty sure they will be with Iran.
once they declare war, none will ever go through that route and those inside the Mediterranean sea are trapped. for now we might be seeing the gradual rise of energy prices and we can only be sure whether the gas prices will sky rocket or not when the war breaks already.
Just two corrections:once they declare war, none will ever go through that route and those inside the Mediterranean sea are trapped. for now we might be seeing the gradual rise of energy prices and we can only be sure whether the gas prices will sky rocket or not when the war breaks already.
Algeria hasn't declared war yet, they just passed the law that opens the way for them to declare war if they feel needed.
Secondly what's happening in Palestine is crimes against humanity. It is not a religious war and it is not just against Muslims. For example the Israeli terrorists destroyed a church in Gaza that was over a thousand years old while slaughtering the Christians there. That's not to mention the Jews that Israel has slaughtered so far.
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