Topic: Is energy prices about to shoot up? - page 5. (Read 1081 times)

I think, if there is a shortfall of supply of oil and gas from the middle East, there are other oil producing countries and continents in the world that will meet up there OPEC quarter, and they can successfully supply oil and gas across Europe and the world at large, even when Russia and Ukraine crisis we are the heat, Nations within Europe where  still able to get gas and oil, even though there was a shortfall. so what I'm saying in essence is that, there will be one way or the other to get oil and gas if the crisis currently happening in Israel and Gaza continue to intensify.

Resistance isn't run by Iran, they are friends of Iran each striving for the same goal.

That shouldn't be difficult at all though. Apart from the fact that the holy city of Quds or Beit od-Moqdas was the first qibla of Muslims and is currently occupied by those who regularly desecrate Al-Aqsa Mosque, the majority of population of Saudi Arabia are Sunni Arabs and should be the one supporting Sunni Arabs of Palestine. But in reality the Shia Persians of Iran are the only supporters of Palestine!

That's the problem with dictators that are either installed or backed by the West. They can not make any actual moves against Western interest even if all their population demanded it.

Technically they can't stop the attacks because if they could they would have stopped the attacks on Aramco for instance. But they are trying and have already intercepted some of them like the Yemeni drone that Egypt shot down a couple of days ago.
This caricature by an Arab artist says it all: https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/11/01/tX4IW.jpeg

The cooperation between Israel and some of the Arab regimes is not new. Although if you want solid proof of this particular UAE participation there are none. We only have some reports from different sources. The one that made a lot of noise recently was the report by France24 channel. I couldn't find the full video but here is a mirror showing part of it in a Persian newspaper: https://ettelaat.com/00058P my Arabic isn't that good but it is talking about the "sellah" and "ta'erat al-emarati" which is the Emirati Weapons and Aircrafts.

I hope not because although unit rates have dropped since last winter, they are still extremely high. They are significantly higher than what they were prior to COVID & the Ukraine war. The cynical side of my thought processes say that energy companies are preying on consumers & using those things as an excuse to drive up prices. To conclude, I really hope prices don’t rise again because the cost of living is at unprecedented levels in my country right now.

The Iran's hegemonic strategy is a very complex one that is hard to explain. If I wanted to summarize it I'd say it is cancer treatment; it is to end occupation of Middle East by any foreign force. So Iran is already deeply involved, not just because we are talking about Iran's neighborhood but also because supporting the oppressed is part of Iran's constitution. And since the colonizers aren't going to end their occupation of the most resource filled region of the world peacefully, the "tumor removal" will be hurtful.

So why isn't Iran directly intervening in Gaza?
We have to first realize that the enemy is the biggest and most cunning propagandist in this world with full control over majority of the Western mainstream and social media. We are talking about Israel, an apartheid regime that murders thousands of children every day but fills the media with a fake news about Hamas having killed children using a deepfaked image! So the world needed to see the true face of Israel as a terrorist organization to first shatter that fake illusion they had created over the past decades. That seems to have happened already when we look at the large scale protests across the globe specially in the West like the last one that even reached United States Senate.
If Iran had entered from day one, the Israeli terrorists would have easily turned the public opinion around. For example they could simply blame the bombs they dropped on a Palestinian concentration camp yesterday that weighed a total of 6 tons on Iran saying it was an Iranian missile trying to hit them. But today the world sees this crime and knows it was Israel that murdered all those people in a blinking of an eye.

Another way of looking at it is that at the end of the day this is a Palestinian issue and if others intervened from day one, it would have turned it into THEIR war and Palestinian cause would have been forgotten and possibly erased forever. It needed to be Palestinian freedom fighters rising up against the invaders first before others could start helping (as they have been).

It needs to be added that Iran has always supported the legitimate struggle of Palestinians for freedom officially and loudly. Check out the last speech by the Iranian foreign minister in UN. The recent video of an advanced UUV released by Qassam brigade shows the quality of that support.
So for now Iran's support of Palestine will continue but direct intervention would remain outside Palestine focusing on CENTCOM (ie. Northern Africa and West Asia). For example if you check out Syrian and Iraqi news you can see the increasing number of attacks on US bases there with videos, something that is mostly censored in Western media.

That's true but things are changing real fast. For example last week Yemen was silent, now the battlefield is expanded by a radius of 2000 km overnight. So I'm just speculating here about possibilities based on what develops, after Friday this battle could be entirely different, from genocide of Palestinians halting abruptly all the way to US aircraft carriers sinking to the bottom of Mediterranean sea.

You have raised a good point, I did not gave it a thought before, because concerns were on war not giving any thoughts to energy crisis that might come if war goes on. Just like we have seen energy crisis during the war of Ukraine and Russia.  Well, this resistance group (ran by Iran which they do not agree on) knows as axis of resistances did attacked Israel with ballistic missiles and these missiles fly from the western side of Saudia Arabia  and then Jordan to Israel. And Saudia Arabia is in relation with US and have to chose sides now. Which seems to be a difficult situation for them because Saudia is a Islamic state and they should support Palestine and we know more than 3200 child (only childs) have been killed by Israel and those childs belong to muslim families so it should be hard for Saudia arabia to chose sides.

They did not made any statement yet and don't want to, but I say they should not take sides yet, they can stop those missiles to go into the boundary of Israel by destroying them from there western side but they are also not doing that and that really of concerns. Even if they not want to interrupt in these war of Axis Group Of resistance backing Palestine, Hamas against Israel they are not interrupting because they will be attacked too and I think they don't want it but besides this reason they might be loving this attack on Israeli terrorists like many of us. (Note* I say the war should be stopped).

Overall, KSA not doing anything and that's good because they also lost many lives of worker in drone attacks from Yemen.

This is something new I was not aware of this, I did not found any source to this news can you please verify it because the news I found was of 2018 and that news was also fake.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailysabah.com/mideast/2018/08/11/uae-participated-in-bombing-of-gaza-with-israeli-army-journalist/amp
Well, that's because Yemen's or whoever's this group is AKA axis of resistance which attacked Israel, took part in this Hamas-Israel war on 31 October which was yesterday and the the effect will take sometime to be noted.

The longevity of the tension in the Gaza Strip region may be reflected in the prices in the Western region but for the sake of comparison this event with Russia and Ukraine affected most of the economies, here the one side Gaza and its supporters are relatively weak and Israel has the upper hand so this can be bring to an end in one or other way whereas in Russia and Ukraine both were supported by other big nations so such kind of approach wasn't possible which dragged the war for longer period of times.

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Oil resources are non-renewable even if nothing happens it is gonna dries out at some point and that is why governments are focusing on creating energy with other renewable sources but it's a long-term transition that may take a decade or two until there won't be any situation hopefully.

I'm not an expert in geopolitics, but my thinking is that a real war in that area can only happen if Iran intervenes. Although so far we have heard a lot of harsh words from Iran, for now it seems that everything will remain only on threats, and all the other incidents that you have already mentioned are only isolated incidents that cannot significantly disrupt traffic through the Suez Canal, and even less through gas pipelines or oil pipelines.

Since Russia attacked Ukraine, some things have changed significantly in the EU, which means that many alternative sources of oil and gas supply have been found, primarily from the US and Africa (Algeria, Nigeria) and increased production from Norway. The latest data indicate that EU gas storage facilities are about 99% full, and temperatures are still around 20 degrees Celsius (daily), and long-term forecasts point to a relatively warm winter.

In addition, progress is also being made in terms of using energy from renewable sources.

Maybe we should accept this as the impeding consequences to the global world economy system deteriorating and the inflation that is fast covering the surface of the earth, if there's inflation then almost every aspect of the economy remain being affected and definitely there will be a price change in energy likewise it's consumption will be affected, we all know how there's high dependency on the energy consumption rate and it daily demand, people cannot leave without the use of energy each day of their lives, we have to remember that the higher the dependency the higher the demand and also the price under economic law of consumption, demand and supply.

Your concern is genuine, and so are your linkings and predictions by land and proxies as they are the rightest view of everyone now. This is one of the reasons why the focus on the Middle East is high this time, and more escalation in the region will surely shoot the price of energy higher. Crude oil moved higher in the wake of the news of the Isrseal-Hamas issues and moved almost 1000 pips within a few days before dropping back. The reason is justified as we all know the importance of the Middle East in the energy market. But the effect was still temporary and of course also a warning for the world if the Israel-Hamas war escalates.

The Middle East has over 43% of the world's oil reserve, so I don't know the trick the world would play if such a region is at war to the extent that oil pumping stops partially or totally. OPEC and others won't be able to manipulate this time as many of the members state can't have the capacity to quantify for the expected shortfall.

This is part of my Energy Crisis 2.0 topic but since this is a significant change, I placed it in a new topic which I may lock after Friday since we will enter a new phase with possibly significant changes after Friday.

A quick explanation of this map for a visualization of where everything is located.
Yemen is 1700 km away from the occupied Palestine and has dominance over the strait of Bab al-Mandab (where Gulf of Aden and Red Sea meet) and by extension can affect the Red Sea and the Suez Canal (green circle).
The significance of the sea region is shown with the yellow and black arrows. The yellow arrows mostly show the direction of the energy and resources heading to the West and the black arrows show the route for majority of Western exports (West meaning mainly Europe).


Over the past week Yemen officially entered the ongoing war in West Asia.
The first step was sending at least two light slow cruise missiles towards USS Carney, the US Navy destroyer in Red Sea as a warning that in case of intervention they will be sunk with heavier and faster anti-ship cruise missiles.
The second step was a small ballistic missile attack on Israeli terrorist bases in the southmost part of occupied Palestine, the Eilat port shown by the red circle.

What does this have to do with energy and consequently economy?
Well, this effectively expanded the war to the Red Sea and will affect the routes I drew on the map above.
Specially since US Navy is already present in the region and the terrorist ships entered Red Sea today and considering that they are all legitimate targets we could see the international trade disrupted in the coming days if those warships are attacked.
That means for example all the LNG shipments to Europe from Qatar would stop. Same with oil tankers and all other kind of shipments.

The other thing to consider is the possibility of Yemenis attacks expanding to include more legitimate targets in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Both oil rich countries and both legitimate targets because their coalition with US has invaded Yemen and it would only be retaliation according to international laws. Also legitimate targets because they both are helping the terrorist organization commit genocide in Palestine (eg. UAE fighter jets are reported to be participating in bombing Gaza in the past days).
That can translate into much more than just oil price rising, there will be oil shortage.

What's interesting is that oil price has not shown any significant reaction to the events of past couple of days.
Possibly because the routes have not yet been threatened by the presence of terrorists and their supporters. But we still need to wait and see what the next move is, this is only speculation for now.

Let me know what you predict.