Is it legal to create statistical software for a game? - page 2.

DubemIfedigbo001

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Quote from: bitbollo on January 24, 2025, 06:43:02 AM

it is hard to reply without clear details. most of all sites (including gambling sites) have some clause that would avoid any kind of advantage for the player.
you must be aware of that these can be also "hidden" inside their terms or just a generic phrase .

generally speaking, if you are tracking some of your data this will be ok. however if you're doing this with scrapers, AI etc etc this can become a little unfair (and probably not allowed) so a check must be done.

I was meaning to ask him how he intends achieving this without having to steal information from the site, of course casinos would never freely welcome you having a full information of the outcomes of the games on their website aside from the one you play. It is already unfair if you have to scrape the site for information and I believe casinos are aware of these possibilities, and surely, they must have taken accurate measures to limit or eliminate Bot activities on their sites. Also, that would be a total waste of your creativity, try being more productive with your time instead of trying to cheat the casino with its data (if that is really your intention).

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

My question is more about software where each play and result is manually stored by you in your software's database, and it reflects the statistics of the next play.

I would have loved to ask questions like other people, that what type of game are you referring to? But from my understanding I think it's football. Which is programed ln an automated system where every football match and results are stored in a database which may be used to analyze any match that involves the particular person or group of people in question. Well I will say such an idea would be awesome but that doesn't guarantees a regular win because things changes sometime the features of the match may change and results to what you least expected.

Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

For me I would say there is nothing wrong with such Discovery as it will even increase the chances of making more money from the gambling sector. If it gives more accuracy. And Again I don't see it as being unfair since it was not like hacking or breaking into a site and hacking them. It would have been unfair if it was cheating. But in this case the botay not even be %100 sure in it's prediction.

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I don't think its wrong because that in no way interfere with the casino, some persons even does it manually without them using an app, i think if you have got that chance of playing from the comfort of your home which gives you the chance to at any time play an apply any technique you want, you aren't attaching any bot to the site, its only but a strategy for you to have chance at wining so it will not be considered as wrong as there's no terms by the casino prohibiting it so you just make it your strategy and make sure to still abide by the casino rules and make the most of it.

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Quote from: AVE5 on January 24, 2025, 05:19:43 AM

After much said that you don't mean the bot technology I still can't understand what software program that could carry on this task.

Any kind of program can do that, you can do it even in excel if you want, it's just a bunch of data based on an action, a sum, and a result, nothing special, statistics like that have been around for ages, even before the internet.

Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

It's nothing like that.
Counting cards is illegal because in certain hands you know that an event is impossible, for example, you know there are no aces or not 4 coming into the deck, with statics you will just manage to get a probability of such a thing happening if things like this would be illegal then they would have to wipe everyone's memory after a roulette game so they can't count how many time sit has landed on red.

Either way, for RNG games stats are useless, for sports betting you already have thousands of resources at a click distance.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

I'm not referring to any kind of bot that interacts directly with the website. We know this is wrong, and generally, casinos have good defenses against it.

My question is more about software where each play and result is manually stored by you in your software's database, and it reflects the statistics of the next play.

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

These kinds of questions are very ambiguous and can clarify many aspects for the player to know their limits.

I think you can create anything that you think can help you win, and I don't see anything wrong with tracking statistics and trying to find patterns that way. If it helps you increase your winnings, then I think it's a good job, but I also think there are a lot of players who study statistics up and down, but it doesn't help them much in predicting future results, because each new game has its own unique conditions that are almost never repeated.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on January 24, 2025, 07:21:04 AM

I guess that will not be a problem as long as you don't breaks their rules. You collect the data for your own research to find the specific statistical pattern that can help you to win. But you can not have a high expectation to beat and win from casino because casino will their defenses as you say. Casino will not let us win easily so we must realize that and just trying to collect the data and analyze deeper.

That's true, if maybe there's any casino that kicks against using such statistical model, they could include it on their ToS but if there's no such rule, it means you can use it, not to ignor the fact that such statistics would not guarantee a steady winning streak. If it does, then the casino will not permit it because they know it can give the player an edge if winning more than usual.

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Quote from: peter0425 on January 24, 2025, 09:38:04 AM

Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

They prohibit the counting of cards in blackjack because it gives the players advantage but it is not exactly cheating. Same thing here except like I said, it’s not like the casinos would know. I don’t think you should feel any guilt.

Anything that makes casino unprofitable using a strategy that will guarantee loss is considered as “cheating” due to unfair playing against them.

It’s not cheating in players PoV because it’s just a loop hole on the game but casino doesn’t players to win without any risk so they counted it as forbidden and in fact created different ways to fight counting that makes it impossible to do now.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

You said it does not operate directly on the casino so I don’t think there is any way for the casino to detect the software hence it will not be considered as cheating.

They prohibit the counting of cards in blackjack because it gives the players advantage but it is not exactly cheating. Same thing here except like I said, it’s not like the casinos would know. I don’t think you should feel any guilt.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

My question is more about software where each play and result is manually stored by you in your software's database, and it reflects the statistics of the next play.

If its manually stored and there is no interaction with the platform only to store statistics, then its perfectly legal. Sports bettors are ponds of storing results for pattern and to give them results in their favor in future bets.

Quote

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

These kinds of questions are very ambiguous and can clarify many aspects for the player to know their limits

There is no term in the casino that says you cannot analyze games for profit. As long as you legally win and they see nothing wrong in your action, they will honor your winning, although there are casinos that restrict such players. but every bettors at least should have something that will give them a chance to win and not just rely on luck.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

I'm not referring to any kind of bot that interacts directly with the website. We know this is wrong, and generally, casinos have good defenses against it.

My question is more about software where each play and result is manually stored by you in your software's database, and it reflects the statistics of the next play.

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

These kinds of questions are very ambiguous and can clarify many aspects for the player to know their limits.

If you`re talking about casino games - it doesn`t matter, they are random. If we are talking about card games with card counting - it may be not ethical, but i don`t see a problem here. I don`t agree that casino prohibit it.
If we are talking about betting - it is the main part of betting, it is impossible to prohibit it. Without research you can make just blind bets, it is funny but i don`t sure that you can win some money such a way.
As the result - i see no any problem with using such software.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

Casino games use RNG to determine the result of the game which means even if you collect millions of data from your bets you can’t still come to a working strategy to predict the future bets since every bet is random and independent to each other.

So it’s ethical and not unfair to create statistical software to record your game. However, it’s useless and will just give you false you hope that you can predict the outcome just because you spot a same pattern.

In reality there’s no way to predict the next outcome.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 24, 2025, 08:26:12 AM

I'm talking about a hypothetical case where a user has such advantages, not about a specific software or game. But in case such software exists, it cannot be interpreted as malicious software because, as I proposed the case, the software does not interact with the website, it would only take statistical advantages. Similar cases have happened before, such as Black-Scholes and their popular Midas formula or Jim Simons in the stock market, which are examples of how statistical advantages can be legitimate and revolutionary.

Well, from my poker experience I can tell you that these programs exist but for poker, being the most famous Holdem Manager or Poker Tracker. They are legal in the rooms but there are many others programs that are not.

When asking if it is legal or not what you say (software to track casino games I assume), I think we are in unknown territory because if the house thinks it is suspicious it could prohibit it in their ToS but if it can help to catch cheating in the casino software it should be legal. Being so varied the legislation around the world is more complicated the matter.

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Quote from: AVE5 on January 24, 2025, 05:19:43 AM

After much said that you don't mean the bot technology I still can't understand what software program that could carry on this task.
What specific statist gambling patterns are you instigating? Your historical datas or disciplinary gambling skills such as manipulating the casinos site to forsee your winnings?
Sorry I don't either think if the casinos would even get looses of their sites domain to admit any software program to have access to their domain.
That simply means it would be considered unfair and unacceptable.
Perhaps for cautious ness, this proposal would seem suspiciously malicious.

I'm talking about a hypothetical case where a user has such advantages, not about a specific software or game. But in case such software exists, it cannot be interpreted as malicious software because, as I proposed the case, the software does not interact with the website, it would only take statistical advantages. Similar cases have happened before, such as Black-Scholes and their popular Midas formula or Jim Simons in the stock market, which are examples of how statistical advantages can be legitimate and revolutionary.

Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

It is better to read beforehand so as not to misinterpret.

Quote from: Darker45 on January 24, 2025, 03:47:50 AM

You can compute the data you've gathered from the result of every roll of a dice, for example, or a toss of a coin. Based on that, certain patterns might be detected by a software, therefore it can make a guess as to the probable result of the next roll. Will the prediction be accurate, though? Although it might turn out correct, the answer is no. After all, each roll of a dice is completely independent from all other rolls. This is true to other random-based casino games as well.

this is not as you say, the probabilities change according to the results obtained. For example, a game based on random numbers between 1 and 100, guessing whether they are less than or greater than 50, if numbers less than 50 have been repeated twice, the probability that the next game is greater than 50 is approximately 75% and not 50% as one might believe.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

I will like to consider this as normal record keeping just that the data that’s being stored is your game history and if this is put into consideration then I don’t see how it’s unethical as it doesn’t violate or exploit anything on the site just your data.

I don’t know if it’s similar but I have seen several bots take stat from gambling site and then compile them which was later used to form some kind of patterns for players to follow; if the casinos were against such things I’m sure they won’t have made those details public in the first place.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

I'm not referring to any kind of bot that interacts directly with the website. We know this is wrong, and generally, casinos have good defenses against it.

My question is more about software where each play and result is manually stored by you in your software's database, and it reflects the statistics of the next play.

Aside from being an illegal thing how would you even manage to make it work on the casino you are gambling?, no casinos will even allow anything involving an external connection to the site, so it most be connected before it can even work and without that nothing, however even if is a software you cannot connect to the site before working casinos are still impenetrable but if they find out were such connections is coming from definitely that would be the last day the person will use there casinos because they have broken their rules, however casinos are not trading were people uses software, so since statistics is what you want, perhaps you could just do it manually by capturing every moment of your wagering with your smart device because with that the casino will have nothing against you but that's too difficult to do because is work on it own and it may not even worth the stress.

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Quote

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

Because it could be compared to counting cards in blackjack, which is not illegal but is prohibited by casinos. Using statistical software could be seen similarly because it would be a way to maximize probabilities within the limits of the game.

Ethical? Unfair? Do you think that the casinos, which have rigged gambling games are ethical and fair? Why should we think about morals and ethics here? Is the creation of such software legal? I think that the answer is yes. The developers of such software aren't breaking any law or patent, by writing such software code. I don't know how a casino could possibly find out, that somebody is using such software to gather statistical data about certain casino games. Maybe if the software developers launch a website and offer this as a service, the casino owners could find out that their games are being used for gathering statistical data, but this isn't illegal, so they can't ban such website.

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I guess that will not be a problem as long as you don't breaks their rules. You collect the data for your own research to find the specific statistical pattern that can help you to win. But you can not have a high expectation to beat and win from casino because casino will their defenses as you say. Casino will not let us win easily so we must realize that and just trying to collect the data and analyze deeper.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

Suppose the more data you input, the more likely it is to find a specific statistical pattern.

-How ethical would this be?

-Would it be considered unfair?

I like this concept. A statistical software right now cannot be without the application of machine learning. If you as a player wants to know more about the statistics and probable outcome of your next game, based on your past gaming patterns, a sophisticated and thorough answer will be gotten though the use of a machine learning model for the statistical outcome. And it doesn't apply to games of luck but skill. If you can set it up yourself and put collected the date from key variables then you can apply ML to it. For the casinos, I don't think they have any option like this yet.

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What I know about this kind of software is that it is a tool to help you analyze patterns; some AI can do that, and how will they know that you created one? If you are betting fair and based it on your analysis, they don't accuse you of going to the future and coming back to bet if you are betting consistently.
All I know is they will limit you if you are consistently winning the house, but accusing you of cheating without proof will boomerang on the casino's reputation.

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Quote from: mcdouglasx on January 23, 2025, 11:25:25 PM

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I wouldn't say that it's wrong or unfair, I mean if just gathering enough data was more than enough to figure out how to win in their games, then it wasn't much in the first place. You don't even need a software to do it, even just manually listing it and looking for patterns would've been enough to determine it.

And even the argument of blackjack can easily be countered since they've already fixed that by using multiple decks. No matter what as long as it isn't in the ToS, I reckon you're fine. And technically even if it was, I hardly doubt they'd be able to sniff you out for doing so. Not that many would do it in the first place tbf.

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