Is Litecoin really really cheap right now? Or is it dying? - page 4.

Peter Lambert

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: smoothie on March 18, 2013, 04:44:31 PM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on March 18, 2013, 04:23:05 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 18, 2013, 04:17:07 PM

WEll the potential for mining difficulty in teh future can drive the price up now. Good example is ASICs that will be coming online in the near future....it is called PRICE ANTICIPATION of an event.

How does knowing the difficulty is going to go up influence the price? There will still be the same number of coins rewarded every ten minutes.

If people knew a gold rush was coming because better technology was on its way...people would be buying up the supply of gold in advance....especially if this new technology being used implied that mining for gold would become that much more difficult.

Get it now? Simple logic.

Edit: Increased demand can translate to increased mining hash power = harder to mine = more power = more equipment = more cost.

But I think things are actually going the other way: ASICs make mining easier (for those who have them). If it takes less effort to get the bitcoins, since the miner is more efficient, then that miner will be willing to sell at a lower price. To use your analogy, if you know a gold rush is coming (and the supply of gold will go up), then why would you buy now? You would offer a lower price in anticipation of the increased supply.

chriswen

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on March 18, 2013, 04:23:05 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 18, 2013, 04:17:07 PM

WEll the potential for mining difficulty in teh future can drive the price up now. Good example is ASICs that will be coming online in the near future....it is called PRICE ANTICIPATION of an event.

How does knowing the difficulty is going to go up influence the price? There will still be the same number of coins rewarded every ten minutes.

No but as the difficulty goes up it'll cost more energy to mine a bitcoin. That will probably influence the price. If a coin is too "cheap" people will be making lots of money from dumping, this causes price to drop. If its hard to make a coin it'll rise. Something like this not exaclty sure.

But the markets are usually leading indicators

Secondly, you have to take into consideration the traders. They are not thinking about the present. When you buy a stock you are not thinking about now but you are thinking about the future. I'm not sure how valid this is but I learnt in finance that the stock market is a leading indicator. It means that it is and indicator of the economy 6 months from now. SO if investors feel that the economy is going to bottom out of a recession the stock market will usually bottom out before that as investors anticipate the bottoming out. This is because people want to make money. They don't wait for the economy to bottom out they buy stocks before this.

El Cabron

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Quote from: smoothie on March 18, 2013, 05:05:08 PM

Quote from: El Cabron on March 18, 2013, 05:03:18 PM

LTC listed on trade hill??

Link please

lost it, in their we are back thread talks about other crypto coins coming soon.

smoothie

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Quote from: El Cabron on March 18, 2013, 05:03:18 PM

LTC listed on trade hill??

Link please

El Cabron

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LTC listed on trade hill??

smoothie

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on March 18, 2013, 04:23:05 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 18, 2013, 04:17:07 PM

WEll the potential for mining difficulty in teh future can drive the price up now. Good example is ASICs that will be coming online in the near future....it is called PRICE ANTICIPATION of an event.

How does knowing the difficulty is going to go up influence the price? There will still be the same number of coins rewarded every ten minutes.

If people knew a gold rush was coming because better technology was on its way...people would be buying up the supply of gold in advance....especially if this new technology being used implied that mining for gold would become that much more difficult.

Get it now? Simple logic.

Edit: Increased demand can translate to increased mining hash power = harder to mine = more power = more equipment = more cost.

Peter Lambert

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: smoothie on March 18, 2013, 04:17:07 PM

WEll the potential for mining difficulty in teh future can drive the price up now. Good example is ASICs that will be coming online in the near future....it is called PRICE ANTICIPATION of an event.

How does knowing the difficulty is going to go up influence the price? There will still be the same number of coins rewarded every ten minutes.

smoothie

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on March 18, 2013, 04:07:33 PM

Quote from: tacotime on March 16, 2013, 03:01:26 PM

Quote from: mr_random on March 16, 2013, 02:57:42 PM

So if I am understanding your calculations correctly, mining Litecoin is twenty times more profitable on average?

No, I gave the cost in power to mine 1 USD in LTC and BTC.

So, Litecoin is twenty times less profitable than mining BTC right now with the inefficient Avalon ASICs. Once BFL ASICs come out, or some other better competitor, we could see the cost to mine 1 USD in BTC decrease another 5-10 fold in the next few months.

Given this, we might guess that
1) BTC price will drop 20-100 fold or difficulty will increase 20-100 fold
or
2) LTC price will increase 20-100 fold (or LTC difficulty will drop 20-100 fold; unlikely)
upon the mass introduction of SHA256 ASICs so long as no LTC scrypt ASICs or super efficient FPGAs come out (I doubt they will, personally).

You have things backwards. Mining difficulty does not drive price, price drives mining difficulty. It does not matter how much power it takes to mine a coin, the coin is worth what it is worth. As shown by the calculations, it currently costs less to mine the same value of bitcoins. So the expected result is more people will drop out of mining litecoin and increase mining bitcoins, driving up the difficulty of bitcoins and down the difficulty of litecoins. However, the numbers you gave were for different hardware; instead, as more ASICs come onto the bitcoin mining, we will see more people moving their GPUs onto litecoin mining, driving up the difficulty and hence the power needed to mine the same value. The net result is that we will see the difficulty of mining LTC increase but there will not be an increase of LTC price.

WEll the potential for mining difficulty in teh future can drive the price up now. Good example is ASICs that will be coming online in the near future....it is called PRICE ANTICIPATION of an event.

Peter Lambert

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: tacotime on March 16, 2013, 03:01:26 PM

Quote from: mr_random on March 16, 2013, 02:57:42 PM

So if I am understanding your calculations correctly, mining Litecoin is twenty times more profitable on average?

No, I gave the cost in power to mine 1 USD in LTC and BTC.

So, Litecoin is twenty times less profitable than mining BTC right now with the inefficient Avalon ASICs. Once BFL ASICs come out, or some other better competitor, we could see the cost to mine 1 USD in BTC decrease another 5-10 fold in the next few months.

Given this, we might guess that
1) BTC price will drop 20-100 fold or difficulty will increase 20-100 fold
or
2) LTC price will increase 20-100 fold (or LTC difficulty will drop 20-100 fold; unlikely)
upon the mass introduction of SHA256 ASICs so long as no LTC scrypt ASICs or super efficient FPGAs come out (I doubt they will, personally).

You have things backwards. Mining difficulty does not drive price, price drives mining difficulty. It does not matter how much power it takes to mine a coin, the coin is worth what it is worth. As shown by the calculations, it currently costs less to mine the same value of bitcoins. So the expected result is more people will drop out of mining litecoin and increase mining bitcoins, driving up the difficulty of bitcoins and down the difficulty of litecoins. However, the numbers you gave were for different hardware; instead, as more ASICs come onto the bitcoin mining, we will see more people moving their GPUs onto litecoin mining, driving up the difficulty and hence the power needed to mine the same value. The net result is that we will see the difficulty of mining LTC increase but there will not be an increase of LTC price.

efx

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Definitely agreed!

"code monkey came up with a clever trick to avoid the nasty 0.1 LTC fee for anything under 0.01 LTC" Grin

excellent! That is a particularly nasty fee, lol.

You're right about NVC...Someone really became pissy about that release. I say coins should be allowed to thrive or die based on their own merits and conditions of release. How effective can those attacks really be?

Anyways, I think Sdice helps to highlight the benefits of faster transactions especially well. Once the fee is reduced, I expect heavy dice users to be rather intrigued.

SRoulette

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Quote from: efx on March 17, 2013, 09:12:29 AM

As for the tx fees, I think if LTC can stay above ~ 20 cents the fee can be reduce and the worries of malicious transaction spam would still be mostly over.

I believe LTC services are still being attacked (ltcpool is acting spotty) so I suspect people are still looking for ways to at least temporarily harm the blockchain.

Sad but true, we feel its a great shame to see any altcoin attacked in a malicious ddos fashion such as ltc in its early days experienced and more recently trc (not to much), ppc (reasonable) and nvc (this coin generates some hate).

We have adapted our games to compensate for the higher than norm tx fees and recently code monkey came up with a clever trick to avoid the nasty 0.1 LTC fee for anything under 0.01 LTC. So really it less our gain and morethe players benefit if they were lowered.

The recent price increase has also helped against this by making tx spam attacks more costly and to litecoins credit is nice that it happened organically.

Our own litecoin service was attacked several times in its early days, we wore the cost and learnt our lessons.

Perhaps litecoin could become the "stable" altcoin with sparse releases forked from time proven bitcoin versions.
0.6.3 is arguably a good solid version to start with and stay with, until of course we finally hit that tx/second limit.
If this becomes the case I can see a bright future ahead for this altcoin.

efx

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That's true, these updates are not something that should be disregarded completely.

As for the tx fees, I think if LTC can stay above ~ 20 cents the fee can be reduce and the worries of malicious transaction spam would still be mostly over.

I believe LTC services are still being attacked (ltcpool is acting spotty) so I suspect people are still looking for ways to at least temporarily harm the blockchain.

SRoulette

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Quote from: efx on March 17, 2013, 08:37:53 AM

Indeed.

"When discussing the excessive txfees yes. not on this particular topic."

Sounds like development is active.

this was discussed nothing further has been actioned, yet.....
Currently the git repo has tumbleweeds rolling though it Grin

Quote from: efx on March 17, 2013, 08:37:53 AM

I don't see a real problem with waiting to roll minor updates together when none of them are critical.
Bitcoin needed and needs 'fixing', let's not forget.

Litecoin inherits the same problems as bitcoin due to being based on bitcoin, these issues do need fixing in litecoin but are not an issue yet.
Thanks to the increased block generation speed we do have 4x the headroom of btc so a hard maximum of 28 transactions per second for ltc.

Quote from: efx on March 17, 2013, 08:37:53 AM

"Except that litecoin will need active development if it hopes to scale,"

Indeed, We will have to bide out time patiently and see I am just a bit more impatient than others Grin

Regardless of the outcome litecoin has been and is a fun altcoin for us to support.

efx

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Indeed.

"When discussing the excessive txfees yes. not on this particular topic."

Sounds like development is active. I don't see a real problem with waiting to roll minor updates together when none of them are critical.
Bitcoin needed and needs 'fixing', let's not forget.

"Except that litecoin will need active development if it hopes to scale,"

...

El Cabron

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4x = significantly more

we do not need to "fix" ltc right now.

SRoulette

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Quote from: efx on March 16, 2013, 04:48:54 PM

Quote from: SRoulette on March 16, 2013, 02:28:08 AM

Quote from: El Cabron on March 15, 2013, 10:45:11 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 15, 2013, 10:35:11 PM

Quote from: SRoulette on March 15, 2013, 10:21:11 PM

I for one would like to see litecoin resume active development.
It is quite impressive it has survived this long on its own, a testament to its lasting power I think, but with newer features and more optimization being put into bitcoin litecoin is starting to look a little dated.

Less is more. Cheesy

I like ltc cuz they dont "fix" it and get bugs...

Except that litecoin will need active development if it hopes to scale, see bitcoin+satoshidice+blocksize limit fiasco.
It could also use the updated db that is in the 0.8 client for speeding up the blockchain download and pruning the db.

Otoh litecoin is a rather simple modification of bitcoin (and not the first of its type) so while I complain about the absence of updates should drastic any need arise I imagine it would be fairly straight forward to sync litecoin to the 0.8x branch.

Umm...Didn't Coblee already reply to you directly in another thread not too long ago?

When discussing the excessive txfees yes. not on this particular topic.

Quote from: efx on March 16, 2013, 04:48:54 PM

Development does not happen over night, and it's a damn good thing LTC hung back.

Also in litecoins case development does not happen in a year.

Quote from: efx on March 16, 2013, 04:48:54 PM

"It could also use the updated db that is in the 0.8 client for speeding up the blockchain download and pruning the db."
There's no urgent need. It will come.

I believe I said as much just with different phrasing.

Quote from: efx on March 16, 2013, 04:48:54 PM

Also, correct if I'm wrong...LTC can already handle significantly more transactions in a given period of time than bitcoin can, even with the .8 update.

OK Im happy to correct you, litecoin due to its increased blockspeed can handle 4x as many tx's as bitcoin.

smoothie

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Quote from: efx on March 16, 2013, 04:48:54 PM

Quote from: SRoulette on March 16, 2013, 02:28:08 AM

Quote from: El Cabron on March 15, 2013, 10:45:11 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 15, 2013, 10:35:11 PM

Quote from: SRoulette on March 15, 2013, 10:21:11 PM

I for one would like to see litecoin resume active development.
It is quite impressive it has survived this long on its own, a testament to its lasting power I think, but with newer features and more optimization being put into bitcoin litecoin is starting to look a little dated.

Less is more. Cheesy

I like ltc cuz they dont "fix" it and get bugs...

Except that litecoin will need active development if it hopes to scale, see bitcoin+satoshidice+blocksize limit fiasco.
It could also use the updated db that is in the 0.8 client for speeding up the blockchain download and pruning the db.

Otoh litecoin is a rather simple modification of bitcoin (and not the first of its type) so while I complain about the absence of updates should drastic any need arise I imagine it would be fairly straight forward to sync litecoin to the 0.8x branch.

Umm...Didn't Coblee already reply to you directly in another thread not too long ago? Development does not happen over night, and it's a damn good thing LTC hung back. "It could also use the updated db that is in the 0.8 client for speeding up the blockchain download and pruning the db."
There's no urgent need. It will come.

Also, correct if I'm wrong...LTC can already handle significantly more transactions in a given period of time than bitcoin can, even with the .8 update.

+1

tacotime

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Quote from: Scratch on March 16, 2013, 04:52:39 PM

This makes a lot of sense. Hike in LTC difficulty too(to a lesser extent but still probably significant enough) I would have thought?

Yeah, this too eventually.

Scratch

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Quote from: tacotime on March 16, 2013, 03:09:58 PM

Sorry, made some edits for clarity.

Mass introduction of ASICs will be within 1-3 months, 3 months maximum. There is simply too much money to be made there right now, people are becoming keen to the fact that bitcoin mining consumers will throw millions of dollars at them if they can provide ASICs for them.

My guess is that we'll see all three likely scenarios play out concurrently;
1) Drop in BTC price.
2) Hike in BTC difficulty.
3) Hike in LTC price.

This makes a lot of sense. Hike in LTC difficulty too(to a lesser extent but still probably significant enough) I would have thought?

efx

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Quote from: SRoulette on March 16, 2013, 02:28:08 AM

Quote from: El Cabron on March 15, 2013, 10:45:11 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 15, 2013, 10:35:11 PM

Quote from: SRoulette on March 15, 2013, 10:21:11 PM

I for one would like to see litecoin resume active development.
It is quite impressive it has survived this long on its own, a testament to its lasting power I think, but with newer features and more optimization being put into bitcoin litecoin is starting to look a little dated.

Less is more. Cheesy

I like ltc cuz they dont "fix" it and get bugs...

Except that litecoin will need active development if it hopes to scale, see bitcoin+satoshidice+blocksize limit fiasco.
It could also use the updated db that is in the 0.8 client for speeding up the blockchain download and pruning the db.

Otoh litecoin is a rather simple modification of bitcoin (and not the first of its type) so while I complain about the absence of updates should drastic any need arise I imagine it would be fairly straight forward to sync litecoin to the 0.8x branch.

Umm...Didn't Coblee already reply to you directly in another thread not too long ago? Development does not happen over night, and it's a damn good thing LTC hung back. "It could also use the updated db that is in the 0.8 client for speeding up the blockchain download and pruning the db."
There's no urgent need. It will come.

Also, correct if I'm wrong...LTC can already handle significantly more transactions in a given period of time than bitcoin can, even with the .8 update.

Topic: Is Litecoin really really cheap right now? Or is it dying? - page 4. (Read 25754 times)