Can we say goodbye to Pump and Dump? Has the era of ratio adjusted valuations finally arrived?
I first commented on what I identified as the first major influx of fiat capital flow into crypto over a year ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/massive-program-buy-in-crypto-last-week-15-june-2015-start-of-something-big-1095434 Now a year later, others are starting to get wise too.
http://www.coindesk.com/second-wave-bitcoin-price-growth-may-just-beginning/ (The author’s referring to the 2nd wave *up*, or the 3rd wave in Elliott Wave terminology.)
http://www.coindesk.com/800-growth-q1s-top-performing-cryptocurrencies-posted-big-gains/ http://www.altcointoday.com/billionaire-investor-holds-10-percent-of-life-savings-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum/ https://cointelegraph.com/news/japanese-investors-might-be-fueling-the-next-altcoin-bubble (Take note that P&D legacy influences the author’s title and conclusion – preconceived notions will get you your head handed to you.)
And the articles are becoming more and more proliferate every day.
If you accept the thesis that this “new” money knows basically nothing about the technology itself and only knows that some small part of its portfolio needs to be allocated to this emerging economic reality, and if one of the pillars of modern investing is diversification, then we can conclude that this new money will be spread out over a “basket” of cryptocurrencies. By no means can we even begin to think that non-tech money will target specific cryptocoins. This new money will most likely be targeted at the sector as a whole.
And how will valuation be analyzed and estimated? It will be done just like it’s always been done: by ratio adjustment. If BTC is worth “a” and XYZ coin has a supply 10 times greater, then XYZ will be worth “a” * 0.1. Very simple. Extremely simple. Ultimately BTC will be tied to the USD in the same way, just like all currencies are tied to each other. Of course, there are fluctuations in their relative pricings based on wider economic factors, but just as we never see a 10% overnight change in the EUR/USD, soon we’ll never see huge pumps and dumps again.
I think we’re going to see huge pumps that DON’T dump, and that take prices up to their corresponding valuation levels.
Will we see that in all coins? Take a look at this and answer the question yourself:
http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/If your answer is no, then I agree with you 100%. There are tons of shit coins, tons of abandoned coins, tons of scam coins, etc., etc., that will die in the waste bin of crypto history.
Will the rest all go up at the same time, or more or less “in sync”? My analysis says they won’t. These things begin slowly, gain traction, and then go full steam. It’s not necessarily an overnight phenomenon, that is until you get to the Elliott wave 3, which I believe we are entering, but even then it’s a “process”. The whales get wise and stop dumping once they realize the ride is going to be longer and higher. Their resources are also limited (especially in comparison with the huge amounts of ever growing fiat coming into crypto) and they need to be selective and thus drive the prices of a limited number of “early winners”. Their selectivity in turn is seen by the new fiat coming in who fill their “baskets” with the outperforming names. It’s very circular and perhaps even somewhat self-fulfilling. As the “old timers”, the whales as we better know them, sell to the new fiat at much higher prices, they then “rotate” into lesser known cryptocoins, drive their prices higher, and sell once again to the new fiat that keeps coming in. Rinse and repeat until, at some point, there are no more viable candidates left to “invest” in and all the winners are "fairly" priced. Has this process begun already. Will your coin be included in the winning groups? And which group will it be in? The first to rise? The second? Or will it ever make it at all?
Total market cap is still less than 10 percent of Apple’s market cap. That’s just Apple, and just to name a very famous case that is often cited when making relative comparisons of public companies. Now, put Apple into the relative context of a 13 trillion dollar M2 money stock just in the US (more than 50 trillion developed economies combined money stock), and it’s just a drop in the ocean.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyThis writing is not definitive, nor is it meant to be anything more than food for thought and something to create lively conversation on the subject where more data, opinions and perspectives are added to the mix. I "invested" less than 45 minutes in this, so please forgive the lack of footnotes and exhaustive argumentation. The idea is to start a conversation that I hope you will engage in and enjoy yourself while doing so (and perhaps even make a little more money too!).
For the perhaps 50 or so coins that really are viable, I think we can say goodbye to P&D and hello to real ratio adjusted valuations.
What do you think?