Is trading just educated guessing? - page 22.

PokerFace3

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Quote from: Pixyoxx on October 22, 2017, 10:12:40 PM

Guessing may give profit to you once or twice but in the long run it is not gonna help. What will help is your knowledge about the field you are investing/trading in and thorough research about it.

You are right but if we really want to look at it, OP is right and that was the reason he included educated in the guess. The fact remains that we can analyze market, we can view through charts and we can make some decisions from it but everything still balls down to prediction and the last time i checked, every prediction is still a guess.

The only difference is that you are backing you guesses up with some facts which pretty still does not mean chances of not being right may still be there except it is just going to be lesser making wrong decisions.

bristlefront

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In trading, there are still parameters needed to consider. Maybe for others it was just an educated guessing about its price. But others who are veteran in trading have wider knowledge about it and they apply the parameters measured/collected/rumored in trading business. They also analyze the trend of price before doing an action.

supandi wiharja

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I don't think so, because i myself feel that trading requires a lot of analysis and knowledge, not just guesses.
As a trader we have to have a lot of insight and knowledge, because i believe only traders who want to keep learning will succeed in this business. Let's keep learning, not complacent because the market is dynamic, always changing at any time.

batang_bitcoin

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Quote from: Swopon on October 26, 2017, 09:24:18 AM

Yeah i think that so.If you don't have educated guessing then you will not be a successful trader .If you are good at trading then you will be success.so trading is just a well educated guessing

It's not only educated guess but you also need to know the trend of the market. Trading is sort of analysis while you are trying to have some educated guess on the terms and plans of the alt coins that you are going to invest. But most of the traders are just guessing that one day those alt coins that they have bought will be increasing in the future and hopes it will be flying up to the moon.

Swopon

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Yeah i think that so.If you don't have educated guessing then you will not be a successful trader .If you are good at trading then you will be success.so trading is just a well educated guessing

cinchin

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Quote from: MiF on October 25, 2017, 05:24:15 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

No, trading its not like the lottery that will only rely on guessing with luck. In trading you should learn it and study it then if you have learned enough you will now master the ways on how to manage it successfully for your future earnings. Inside information is a big help but not necessary as long as you have mastered your own ways of trading because not all information are reliable to use in which some of them are failure in results.

- Yeah, nothing is certain in trading, everything can happen in trading, what we do is rely on information and data to make guesses, and guess belongs to the future, we can not know the future, so can not be sure
- Even we can have insider information, we can not be sure we will be profitable because the information is a lot, but exactly as you say there is some unreliable information. In addition, this is the market, the price depends on the demand for buying and selling, information can be very good but sometimes it does not help the price increase because many whales will drive the price down

tengek37

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it is possible for the layman of bitcoin or the trading world to mention it is just a guess or gambling game, but actually trading is a sure science that has a formula and a definite result, in determining the action of selling or buying an accurate analysis and prediction of the behavior of the market and price correction at some time backwards that makes the pattern of repetition of market behavior and price movements.

Asmonist

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Quote from: Tyrantt on February 23, 2017, 09:05:06 PM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Not at all. Trading with bitcoin requires you to follow the price flow, current events that might change the price and also a little luck.

When I had my first trading experience I decided to choose it through an advice. I have really no idea yet what to buy for trading. I don't wanna buy anything also with no referal or advice from the experts. I'm still learning to do it. So probably its educated guessing sometimes but its more on luck also. Though it was properly research but still no assurance to get a higher return. Until now I'm still holding it and waiting for my bid price to sell for profit.

haroldtee

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Quote from: Mr. Thang on October 25, 2017, 05:34:47 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Trading and educated guessing have both different meanings and different nature. When someone trades something, it may be through payment of services, payment for a thing, or exchange of items. Educated guessing can be compared to speculating, since you do not have any information about the success/failure of the situation and the only thing that you consider are the factors affecting it. Both have different meanings and nature and are completely different from each other.

In this state, on this forum and pretty much on the trading thread, we both know the kind of trading the OP is referring to and in case you do not, it is not the normal trading of going to the market, receiving payment for services or paying for something, this is pure trading on exchange where everything pretty much fluctutates. I am happy you said educated guessing can be pretty much compared to speculating, so if you know what crypto trading kinda look like, or even though, forex trading, then you will know that the OP is kind of right.
We have no idea of the future and we are just relying on our analytical skills to make the right decisions which still does not guarantee the table may turn in our favour or not as so many factors can change anything at anytime.

MinMan

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Quote from: manismanja on October 25, 2017, 05:07:42 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

trading is not just education, trading must be implemented, if you do not apply trading education then you will not get profit because it has understood trading.

Trading is indeed a very vast field. It is just not like that if you managed to learn educated guessing, then you’ll become a trader. Trading is really a difficult thing and it takes years and years to become an expert in the field of trading. Trading includes so many other things as well like that of learning new things, chart analysis and most important having patience in yourself.

burnchan

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Quote from: Tyrantt on February 23, 2017, 09:05:06 PM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Not at all. Trading with bitcoin requires you to follow the price flow, current events that might change the price and also a little luck.

Agree in that mate. Trading is not purely guessing without valid basis. Guessing is not the ideal strategy in trading because you will end up losing your investment. Trading is a matter of collecting the daily status of the bitcoin. Afterwhich, these data will be your basis or indicator if it is the right time to trade. Thus, trading is a matter if predicting based on the result of your analysis.

Mr. Thang

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Trading and educated guessing have both different meanings and different nature. When someone trades something, it may be through payment of services, payment for a thing, or exchange of items. Educated guessing can be compared to speculating, since you do not have any information about the success/failure of the situation and the only thing that you consider are the factors affecting it. Both have different meanings and nature and are completely different from each other.

MiF

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

No, trading its not like the lottery that will only rely on guessing with luck. In trading you should learn it and study it then if you have learned enough you will now master the ways on how to manage it successfully for your future earnings. Inside information is a big help but not necessary as long as you have mastered your own ways of trading because not all information are reliable to use in which some of them are failure in results.

manismanja

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

trading is not just education, trading must be implemented, if you do not apply trading education then you will not get profit because it has understood trading.

arlinxoha

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I do not seem to be educated for trading. Some good things have to stay in people. Many educated people use Bitcoin. Invest in bitcoin. But not everyone can benefit from trading. Because the skills, courage, confidence, and experience needed to trade. There are not many good people in this quality.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: Pixyoxx on October 22, 2017, 10:12:40 PM

Guessing may give profit to you once or twice but in the long run it is not gonna help. What will help is your knowledge about the field you are investing/trading in and thorough research about it.

Yes, but even if you have deep knowledge on the field, there are too many factors involved that can affect price and you can’t control them all. You only take those you think are the most relevant ones and make your prediction. It is not rare to see a change of trend when unexpected news come up. So, I think in this sense trading has a guessing component.

McOdin

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Guessing is the lack of information to create a liable answer.

Trading cryptocurrencies is more than that. Skills in analytics and pattern-recognition is needed. It means you've understood the flow of the charts and created a possible outcome in your mind.

Ejanend

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Quote from: gabmen on October 22, 2017, 12:02:27 AM

Quote from: douglock on October 21, 2017, 05:19:39 AM

yes it is. Base on many signs and charts, you can predict how the price of coins will go and how they will fluctuate Wink

The more you learn, the more correct prediction you can make. Moreover, you also learn many things from trading such as being patient/

Though an exact prediction would almost be impossible, you're right. You're guessing based on facts that will affect the movement. Smart people are not afraid to make guesses as long as there's research to back it up

Yes a lot of the people are making the different prediction and they are making the guesses but it does not mean this will affect the value and the price of the bitcoin, the value and the price of the bitcoin is increasing and soon we will see, a lot of the people will have their own guess about the bitcoin, I am using the bitcoin as the side income and I am sure in the future bitcoin will be very famous currency.

Kr8os

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To some degree, yes, but I feel like the same can be said about investments in general. It's an ongoing event and unless whatever you're investing in has pulled out of the market or gone bankrupt, trading will continue to be educational guesses based on research and history.

chip211

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Of course I would be more profitable if there was internal information. When you know something in advance, you can buy or sell it to increase the profits you can achieve.

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