Is trading just educated guessing? - page 42.

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Quote from: mornabo on June 15, 2017, 09:52:19 AM

Quote from: Duzter on June 13, 2017, 09:36:29 AM

Trading is perfectly an educational guessing, because without knowledge earning from trading is really impossible. So the better learning about the digital currency market and all about the functioning of the entire system helps with the profitability than loses.

I think if you're just relying on guessing then all you'll get is a defeat. Trading is not just about guessing but you need more skills. You can not rely on luck alone to trade. Because of course it will give you a loss

Its is wrong to say guessing don't work in trading. Afterall it is the basis of skill development in case of trading. There are no books or theses teaching anyone how to trade. Its all depends upon your past experiences and gain/losses. Due to higly dynamic nature of trading ecosystem, luck has most crucial role to play except you have some insider on your side.

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Quote from: Duzter on June 13, 2017, 09:36:29 AM

Trading is perfectly an educational guessing, because without knowledge earning from trading is really impossible. So the better learning about the digital currency market and all about the functioning of the entire system helps with the profitability than loses.

I think if you're just relying on guessing then all you'll get is a defeat. Trading is not just about guessing but you need more skills. You can not rely on luck alone to trade. Because of course it will give you a loss

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

This depends on the market you are trading in. Theoretically, in an efficient enough market, trading is 0% luck - buying an undervalued asset would give you a 100% guarantee of profiting. However, the market is not that efficient in real life, and crypto markets are particularly inefficient.

I would argue that trading bitcoin or other crypto is just mostly just guessing, and in some rare cases, slightly educated guessing.

Trading stocks, however, can be fairly reliable and offers just as much or more potential upside than crypto. I've found that every single time I've seen a stock that is under or overvalued based on their fundamental data, they eventually move up or down to their intrinsic value. Sometimes it takes longer than other times, but it always happens. This means that if you buy a stock that you have determined is undervalued based on its fundamental data, you have a very high chance of making money if you are willing to hold it through volatility.

Basically the bottom line is that trading crypto is mostly guessing, or educated guessing at best, and trading stocks is more like risk management, and provides significantly better opportunities to profit.

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Quote from: revans on June 13, 2017, 09:45:01 PM

Trading is not about educated guessing it requires skills, knowledge and analyzation. Need for analyzation when is the right time to sell your holding coins. If you dont have these loses will experience.

The point is, those which you mentioned(skills, knowledge, and analyzation) is what make it called educated guessing, without those, it'll be merely called a pure speculation. There's no absolute or certain answer to what will happening in the future as no one could predict ever since everything is uncertain that makes even the most reasonable coming outcome will still have the possibilities of wrong.
It's ain't fortune teller nor prophecy neither, just a mere guess created based on the statistic and reason behind it.

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Quote from: zekeshawn on June 15, 2017, 03:47:55 AM

Professional Trader are not just guessing so I think trading is not just educated guessing. What they do is study and analyze Technical and Fundamental Analysis. It is easy to guess but to study every move of the market is not an easy thing to do.

Technically what u said makes sense but i guess that also counts as educated guess. Because you will put an amount to the future happenings. There is also a saying that "It is not gambling if you know you are winning". I guess to what you just stated because fundamentals are assessed. But even with the greatest there is always event that would change everything in just one snap. Studying the past and future moves could be a key to an absolute gain.

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Professional Trader are not just guessing so I think trading is not just educated guessing. What they do is study and analyze Technical and Fundamental Analysis. It is easy to guess but to study every move of the market is not an easy thing to do.

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Quote from: stevano on June 14, 2017, 02:16:52 AM

Not too, but it gives lessons on how to play trading And when you trade you need to speculate not guess, because when you guess, you will not learn anything.

In a way you can consider trading to be like that. You can't predict the outcome accurately so it is a form of guessing when thebright time is to enter and exit a trade. An educated snd calculated guess is far from a random guess. You trybto study factors that can affect the result in order to at least come up wih a decent prediction, and that's how trading is

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Not too, but it gives lessons on how to play trading And when you trade you need to speculate not guess, because when you guess, you will not learn anything.

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For the experienced traders, it is more than educated guessing since they have entry and exit strategies in place and they are not influenced by their emotions. What they look at are indicators and charts that show them signals and how they should react accordingly. But trades doesn’t always turn out to be a success because of the many factors that affect the behavior of the price. For one to make money, he has to experience losing and learn from those mistakes, revise strategy, rinse and repeat.

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True trading certainly not only educates guesses and careful analysis,it also does not always depend on luck,but many factors have a share to profit from trading business.

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Quote from: revans on June 13, 2017, 09:45:01 PM

Trading is not about educated guessing it requires skills, knowledge and analyzation. Need for analyzation when is the right time to sell your holding coins. If you dont have these loses will experience.

You forget about luck without luck most likely you will lose again and again (for example when you would like to sell your coins and after you sold that coins, the price keep up and it's even higher with your last sell). But, professional traders won't regret when this thing happened.

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Quote from: ipungadhi on June 13, 2017, 09:00:12 PM

Quote from: Duzter on June 13, 2017, 09:36:29 AM

Trading is perfectly an educational guessing, because without knowledge earning from trading is really impossible. So the better learning about the digital currency market and all about the functioning of the entire system helps with the profitability than loses.

Guessing is the last thing after you do the analysis and calculation in determining the right time to buy and sell. After that you guess and maybe a bit of luck will affect you will be fortunate or not. So pray a lot lol

Of course lol There are people really guessing when they trade. They lack research and just buying when the market is up, which means not really a good time since experienced traders are disposing already during that time. For me, its not really guessing but its due to careful analysis of the data on hand. They say that history repeat itself, same with trading. There are patterns that repeats that can be a signal to buy or to sell.

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Trading is not about educated guessing it requires skills, knowledge and analyzation. Need for analyzation when is the right time to sell your holding coins. If you dont have these loses will experience.

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Trading is a job and also a business of experience , The profit in the trading is regardless of the factor that what you have experience in you life and what you did in the past . One only logic and your experience will work that how much time you spent in this
Field and how much you can judge a particular coin with its security and power of having speed with transaction .
If a person can make sure that how much a altcoin is powerful then I am 100% sure that he can do trading easily and always get profit .
This is a usual thing for everyone to get success in the trading after a long run , so all over this is experience that making a trade successful .

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Quote from: radamiel on June 13, 2017, 09:17:38 PM

It takes deep knowledge to be able to trade and make money from trading, not just educated guessing. All things must have knowledge, trading and gambling need knowledge, we see the charts, trends and information to determine we buy or sell coin in trading

But when you think of it, everything is an educated guess and specially trading, unleast from my point of view. Because it's not absolutely certain and it does require a little bit of luck and guessing, just like gambling. So yes, it kind of is.

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It takes deep knowledge to be able to trade and make money from trading, not just educated guessing. All things must have knowledge, trading and gambling need knowledge, we see the charts, trends and information to determine we buy or sell coin in trading

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Trading is not teaching us to become a fortune teller or a psychic one. Due to we as a traders we just take action as the monitor react which I mean the motion of the coin value. We focus ourselves to the price value of the coin so that we know if we are going to sell or buy the coins we had for us to obtain profit in the exchange platform.

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Quote from: Duzter on June 13, 2017, 09:36:29 AM

Trading is perfectly an educational guessing, because without knowledge earning from trading is really impossible. So the better learning about the digital currency market and all about the functioning of the entire system helps with the profitability than loses.

Guessing is the last thing after you do the analysis and calculation in determining the right time to buy and sell. After that you guess and maybe a bit of luck will affect you will be fortunate or not. So pray a lot lol

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Quote from: phaddie on June 13, 2017, 07:42:21 PM

Having the right skill set, reading charts/orderbooks, following the right news, understanding sentiment and many other things if done correctly can give you an edge but that is all it is. No guarantees without insider info.

You have an edge on that though it doesnt mean that there will be no risk at all because sometimes you cant detect the coin, now a days it is really unpredictable now. Dont forget to search about that coin and gather some information of it and keep following the devs of that coin so that you will know what his/her plan about it

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I think no. Because trading needs a strategy for you to be able to gain profit. You must also know important details about the objects or something you want to trade. You must be a wise man in trading industry because if you won't be wise the capability of gaining money will be impossible. You must have the guts to investigate and know every information not just by simply guessing. Trading is like a game that you need a liitle bit of luck to earn.

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