Is trading just educated guessing? - page 46.

TastyChillySauce00

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Quote from: ekoice on May 21, 2017, 02:02:44 AM

Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

Absolutely,a trader does marketing analysis,financial analysis and does his own research about the coin he is going to invest.He also notices the latest projects and developments which would influence the market and finally decides to take any move on trading.If its just a guess work,then it would not be called trading and it would just resemble gambling.

What if the analyzation and research you just have done gone wrong? Isn't it just an educated guessing after all? there's no obvious result of the research that it's actually just pure speculation.
Predicting the price movements of a crypto coin is like predicting the future, everything is biased and a guess. There's also some project which successfully developed but doesn't affect the price of a token and it means that project itself doesn't really influence the price.

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I have always believed that trading involves both luck and skills. So, its no harm saying it an educated guess. Trader definitely do market and financial analysis and research before trading but ultimately they are guessing a future price through analysis. So it involves both.

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Quote from: ekoice on May 21, 2017, 02:02:44 AM

Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

Absolutely,a trader does marketing analysis,financial analysis and does his own research about the coin he is going to invest.He also notices the latest projects and developments which would influence the market and finally decides to take any move on trading.If its just a guess work,then it would not be called trading and it would just resemble gambling.

Agreed. Traders fill themselves in and study it further so they can identify if they will gain profit from it or not. Also they tend to keep themselves updated with the recent news regarding that coin that will guide and help them whether they will still continue or find another one who is much better. Experienced traders have gained an abundant income and stick with it that is very unlike with gambling like you said because in gambling it really all depends with chances and lucks, you can't really do much about it to be able to influence the outcome because all you can do is increase the chances of winning and lessen the chances of losing.

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

Absolutely,a trader does marketing analysis,financial analysis and does his own research about the coin he is going to invest.He also notices the latest projects and developments which would influence the market and finally decides to take any move on trading.If its just a guess work,then it would not be called trading and it would just resemble gambling.

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Quote from: thend1949 on April 26, 2017, 03:55:20 AM

Yeah i think so its an educated guessing since you are guessing a fortune of a thing or a coin in terms of price,without reliable source of info you need to guess with knowledge ofcourse and estimate if you will profit on it.

sometimes it's really feel like that way ,
trading equals to but actually it's not , there is a lot of things that you can learn to trade,
and well no wonder if a lot of people start making speculation like this .

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Quote from: BCTBF on May 20, 2017, 10:59:51 PM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

I don't know what skills a person has to have to become a successful trader. But knowing the insider info, I think this strategy is very telling, to get profit that we definitely will get. But if you do not have an inside acquaintance, I guess you just have to find out about info the coins you're going to trade.

There is not that much skills you need to be a successful trader because you can be successful trader if you know how to analyze the chart of the cryptocurrencies and also you know how to make a conclusion about the news that you will find in the internet. Trading especially in cryptocurrencies is one of the easiest kind of trading so it is not that hassle to make profits or become successful.

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

I don't know what skills a person has to have to become a successful trader. But knowing the insider info, I think this strategy is very telling, to get profit that we definitely will get. But if you do not have an inside acquaintance, I guess you just have to find out about info the coins you're going to trade.

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Quote from: pinkflower on May 20, 2017, 03:07:51 AM

Was high freqruency trading an effective and a profitable to trade? I thought it was just a buzzword.

For you it will remain mostly a buzzword

HFT is available only to large investment firms and biggest banks which have direct presence at trading floors. That basically means that they can rack their servers next to the servers of the exchange itself (colocation). They use low-risk strategies aimed at earning small but sure profits and doing that at high frequencies (as the name suggests). In essence, they are just milking the market like a fat ass cow

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Quote from: Silberman on May 01, 2017, 05:21:20 PM

Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

As far as I know an educated guess is not a guess done just because, an educated guess uses knowledge and experience in the field in order to try to better predict the outcome, so in my opinion trading successfully is in fact an educated guess.

Yes, only an experienced person can have knowledge in guessing and it is not possible to person who is very new and fresh to trading. Exactly, the prediction will become true only when he as proper and exact guessing on the market.

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Having insider info would be more helpful than just educated guessing. I always think of successful trader and I think they get insider info for sure. Unless until you have it you can go for big trades without any fear.

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Was high freqruency trading an effective and a profitable to trade? I thought it was just a buzzword.

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Quote from: python_fan89 on May 19, 2017, 04:14:36 PM

In my understanding there are two types of trading, which are NOT-guessing. First - HFT, which is really about technology, artificial intelligence, data science, etc. Second one is long-term investment, which also can be predicted with pretty high probability. Everything else sound like a magic and don't work (imho).

I don't think artificial intelligence has anything to do with HFT trading

HFT trading is basically an implementation of a "hit and run" approach, and the one who can hit harder and run faster gets an advantage. The rent rates on the blocks around major exchanges are skyrocketing because many big time traders are minimizing delays to reach to the exchange, and the HFT algos used should be pretty simple to be fast enough to receive and send orders real-time with minimal delays. Basically, they are just looking for small arbitrage opportunities due to market inefficiencies. So it is unlikely that AI is somehow involved in all this. It would be too slow in comparison with polished algos

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In my understanding there are two types of trading, which are NOT-guessing. First - HFT, which is really about technology, artificial intelligence, data science, etc. Second one is long-term investment, which also can be predicted with pretty high probability. Everything else sound like a magic and don't work (imho).

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

As far as I know an educated guess is not a guess done just because, an educated guess uses knowledge and experience in the field in order to try to better predict the outcome, so in my opinion trading successfully is in fact an educated guess.

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Quote from: ekans45 on April 24, 2017, 10:18:17 PM

Certainly not, it develops your analysis, crtical thinking, and patience. Therese characteristics are being practised in trading which can be enhanced.

Isn't using analysis is not that easy to apply, because you are using your brain/mind how are you gonna do the right timing to buy or sell the coins you hold. And being patience also for many others they failed on this things. But those of your statement was true and I agreed.

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Quote from: Sled on April 26, 2017, 12:53:24 AM

Quote from: mjuliz on April 26, 2017, 12:16:38 AM

No! being a good and professional traders were not doing trade just guessing only, that's not the true meaning of a trader, instead we are doing trade base on the motion value of the coins and market of the coins if it is going to increase or not.

You can read to the title of the threat that says "is trading just educated guessing", you can see that the OP combine the two words which is educated and guessing, it means that trading requires education and guessing which is true because if you just study and you don't have prediction or vision for the next prices then you will not be a good trader. A good trader study and guess at the same time and because of education his predictions have a lot of potential to be true in terms of price movement

I guess (no pun) that educated guess doesn't mean what you think it means

Educated here doesn't refer to education as such, though the word obviously has the same roots. Educated guess is not about that you have to educate yourself in trading so that you could make such a guess. Educated guess means that you base your assumptions about something on your knowledge and experience and not on some random stuff. You can just say reasonable assumption instead

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its not exactly something to explainable here. trading is mostly unpredictable and we are just taking some amount of risk and hoping that price will go the way we want so we can make some profit on that. analysis and researching plays a very vital role here people can predict better if the know the exact history of the market. in addition to this the tactic/strategies used in trading are essential to be educated as because they are not teaching us how to trade more perfectly but also to how to deal with business

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Quote from: craked5 on April 26, 2017, 11:41:40 AM

Quote from: ekans45 on April 24, 2017, 10:18:17 PM

Certainly not, it develops your analysis, crtical thinking, and patience. Therese characteristics are being practised in trading which can be enhanced.

It's also used in any kind of developped guessing ^^

It's closely related to poker IMHO.
Sure there are skills, but in the end it's also just a question of luck xD

Luck really helps, but for one luck it's silly to rely on yourself to analyze everything yourself.

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Quote from: ekans45 on April 24, 2017, 10:18:17 PM

Certainly not, it develops your analysis, crtical thinking, and patience. Therese characteristics are being practised in trading which can be enhanced.

It's also used in any kind of developped guessing ^^

It's closely related to poker IMHO.
Sure there are skills, but in the end it's also just a question of luck xD

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Quote from: virasog on April 25, 2017, 03:40:33 PM

Quote from: rajasumi3 on April 24, 2017, 12:26:49 AM

It is not totally about education,it needs a lot practice and you have to be constantly looking at the price of bitcoins if you want to be successful trader. it needs advice from the people who are successful in trading and practice makes it a perfect.

First we need the education and information of the coins we want to invest and trade, see their past their past trading history, check their volume at coin market cap, and check the markets it is listed at. All these checks and things will be easy for you once you practice them

it can be done for easily with try to see the feedback from the supporters and outside person. As you said if it needs a lot of consideration to take a right decision.

But the important thing is about the project, I mean about the idea and roadmap of the project. The skills of the developer can be being a critical part. The project with expert dev will become a huge project in the future or the right place to invest.

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