Is trading just educated guessing? - page 45.

gabmen

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Quote from: Blackdeath on May 22, 2017, 02:54:59 AM

Quote from: PrintMule on May 21, 2017, 05:01:05 AM

You certainly can not advance with guessing. Education is a must in this regard as it is in every case.If you are educated about economic trends.You can guess a lot of things.But if you are not educated.Your guesses will surely make you profit loss and economic damage.

Economic trends has no relation in crypto currency since it does rely on the volume/quantity of itd investors. Guessing sometimes are profitable yet it's better to read every updates so you can know which coin has a potential to pump.

I agree. reading and studying to make good decision is appliccable to alt trading. you never know if the coins you deal with will make a good run or not and no one ca ever predict accurately though if you prepare and research on it then you have a very good chance of making a good prediction

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Quote from: PrintMule on May 21, 2017, 05:01:05 AM

You certainly can not advance with guessing. Education is a must in this regard as it is in every case.If you are educated about economic trends.You can guess a lot of things.But if you are not educated.Your guesses will surely make you profit loss and economic damage.

Economic trends has no relation in crypto currency since it does rely on the volume/quantity of itd investors. Guessing sometimes are profitable yet it's better to read every updates so you can know which coin has a potential to pump.

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Quote from: Sled on May 22, 2017, 12:49:24 AM

Quote from: RedX on May 22, 2017, 12:12:53 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Well a lot of daytraders or short-term holders do that and to be honest it really works but not most of the time. It also depends where you get that info. Whether it's a reliable source or not.

You don't need insider info because you can get news or information from the different site that always makes article about the coin. It is not that big deal to find reliable source, as long as it is popular then it will make change in the market because we all know that the cryptocurrencies are very vulnerable to the news so it is fast changing every news came out

More power to you then

If it were that simple, we would all be millionaires by now, but in real life only a few chosen ones can become them. All the rest has to feed on dust and crumbs remaining. If some source is reliable and popular at that, it is no longer relevant since its info has already been priced in it provided it does really give reliable, relevant and timely information in the first place (which is unlikely). Why would anyone want to share their pricey bits?

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Quote from: szpalata on May 22, 2017, 01:07:16 AM

Quote from: RedX on May 22, 2017, 12:12:53 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Well a lot of daytraders or short-term holders do that and to be honest it really works but not most of the time. It also depends where you get that info. Whether it's a reliable source or not.

It's just a privileged few that get the insider informations and so it means majority of traders make educated guesses and so they eventually find themselves at the mercy of the markets.

Then would it be safe to conclude that the insiders make money out of even the best traders in the market? All they do is make educated guesses right? But the lack of information makes them open to mistakes which the insiders exploit. What does that make us?

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Quote from: RedX on May 22, 2017, 12:12:53 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Well a lot of daytraders or short-term holders do that and to be honest it really works but not most of the time. It also depends where you get that info. Whether it's a reliable source or not.

It's just a privileged few that get the insider informations and so it means majority of traders make educated guesses and so they eventually find themselves at the mercy of the markets.

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Quote from: Sled on May 22, 2017, 12:49:24 AM

Quote from: RedX on May 22, 2017, 12:12:53 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Well a lot of daytraders or short-term holders do that and to be honest it really works but not most of the time. It also depends where you get that info. Whether it's a reliable source or not.

You don't need insider info because you can get news or information from the different site that always makes article about the coin. It is not that big deal to find reliable source, as long as it is popular then it will make change in the market because we all know that the cryptocurrencies are very vulnerable to the news so it is fast changing every news came out.

Its pretty hard to tell on what would be the real happening in its ecosystem while the real fact is its pretty hard to tell that we can earn by trading it since the news of the said coin is pretty much positive at this point. Anytime price moves since the movement is dependable on traders and holders for the said coin but its very helpfull to us if we have insider info unto it since this is the close information we can get to know what would be the next movement of the coin since devs can do anything for their coin wheter they gonna pump it or dump it.

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Quote from: RedX on May 22, 2017, 12:12:53 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Well a lot of daytraders or short-term holders do that and to be honest it really works but not most of the time. It also depends where you get that info. Whether it's a reliable source or not.

You don't need insider info because you can get news or information from the different site that always makes article about the coin. It is not that big deal to find reliable source, as long as it is popular then it will make change in the market because we all know that the cryptocurrencies are very vulnerable to the news so it is fast changing every news came out.

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Well a lot of daytraders or short-term holders do that and to be honest it really works but not most of the time. It also depends where you get that info. Whether it's a reliable source or not.

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Quote from: Windpower on May 21, 2017, 04:44:31 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Yeah I am pretty sure that it is just educated guessing. There is no way to be sure that the price of Bitcoin is going to go up or down. When you sell or buy, you are taking a risk as the price could continue to go up or down. Everyone that is saying it is not just guessing is pretty dumb. No offence.

But i think it is analysis of the trader. Every trader can guess about the price going up and down, then he buy the coin.
But educated guessing i don't think that every trader have it. Only analysis and get information about the coin which he want to buy, and It is enough for trading.

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Quote from: shine1123 on May 21, 2017, 04:39:32 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Nope, trading is not only about guessing but you also need to find informations about news and gossips. Because new and gossips also affect the trading too. Good news can makes the things that you trading become increase at the price and bad news too.

Well maybe not directly but we make educated guesses and assumptions based on the "gossips" or information we receive whether good or bad and that goes in the long run to affect our trading.

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Quote from: deisik on May 21, 2017, 12:04:00 PM

Quote from: makulo123 on May 21, 2017, 05:31:16 AM

As far as I am concerned, where would you be able to get the "insider info"? I don't know of any source that could give me such info... If you mean governments, financial institutes, regulators and such, than, frankly, I think that a lot have far away from them...

Apparently, to get insider's info you should be an insider

I can't tell much about Bitcoin, but I think you must be a close friend of Wu (or what is his name), or of a similar figure (Satoshi among your bosom buddies would do just fine I suspect) but if we are talking about, for example, fiat currencies or stock markets, I guess you should have ties and connections in a central bank and SEC or similar market regulating agencies. In regard to stock of a specific company, the best would be just working there, better close to top management (or just being the top management itself). Then you will have first or close to first hand info, which would otherwise be called insider's info

Well, it would be nice to have someone trustworthy on these posts... But majority have to rely on the third hand info to visualize the market future such as news portals and so on... Major currencies have to be regulated by some institutions to manipulate the market, but Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) is decentralized, so there is no such thing as regulating institution, or is there? I think that Wu just made the concept and created the blockchain (just guess)...

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Quote from: makulo123 on May 21, 2017, 05:31:16 AM

As far as I am concerned, where would you be able to get the "insider info"? I don't know of any source that could give me such info... If you mean governments, financial institutes, regulators and such, than, frankly, I think that a lot have far away from them...

Apparently, to get insider's info you should be an insider

I can't tell much about Bitcoin, but I think you must be a close friend of Wu (or what is his name), or of a similar figure (Satoshi among your bosom buddies would do just fine I suspect) but if we are talking about, for example, fiat currencies or stock markets, I guess you should have ties and connections in a central bank and SEC or similar market regulating agencies. In regard to stock of a specific company, the best would be just working there, better close to top management (or just being the top management itself). Then you will have first or close to first hand info, which would otherwise be called insider's info

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Accurate calculations will not help you to constantly get a stable income, but simple guessing based only on luck is too risky.

makulo123

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As far as I am concerned, where would you be able to get the "insider info"? I don't know of any source that could give me such info... If you mean governments, financial institutes, regulators and such, than, frankly, I think that a lot have far away from them...

PrintMule

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You certainly can not advance with guessing. Education is a must in this regard as it is in every case.If you are educated about economic trends.You can guess a lot of things.But if you are not educated.Your guesses will surely make you profit loss and economic damage.

Windpower

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Yeah I am pretty sure that it is just educated guessing. There is no way to be sure that the price of Bitcoin is going to go up or down. When you sell or buy, you are taking a risk as the price could continue to go up or down. Everyone that is saying it is not just guessing is pretty dumb. No offence.

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Quote from: AK47- on May 21, 2017, 01:57:17 AM

I have always believed that trading involves both luck and skills. So, its no harm saying it an educated guess. Trader definitely do market and financial analysis and research before trading but ultimately they are guessing a future price through analysis. So it involves both.

This is because a guess work after enough preparation is nothing but "predictions". There will be no significant differences between a trader who is following his skill and a trader who is believing his luck. Because in trades we are having only two options : buy or sell. But Skilled trader may buy at early levels and there will be no guarantee for luck based trader to catch early price levels.

I believe the same applies to "educated guess" and "pure guess". We can trade by guess works but there will be no guarantee to make more profits than losses. But educated guess will ensure this.

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 06:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Nope, trading is not only about guessing but you also need to find informations about news and gossips. Because new and gossips also affect the trading too. Good news can makes the things that you trading become increase at the price and bad news too.

pinkflower

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Quote from: deisik on May 20, 2017, 03:17:08 PM

Quote from: pinkflower on May 20, 2017, 02:07:51 AM

Was high freqruency trading an effective and a profitable to trade? I thought it was just a buzzword.

For you it will remain mostly a buzzword

HFT is available only to large investment firms and biggest banks which have direct presence at trading floors. That basically means that they can rack their servers next to the servers of the exchange itself (colocation). They use low-risk strategies aimed at earning small but sure profits and doing that at high frequencies (as the name suggests). In essence, they are just milking the market like a fat ass cow

Yeah what's new. Large financial firms and the top banks have always been making sheep out of everyone. The government itself is under the power of the financial institutions. Thats why all the got was a slip in the wrist when it was found out that most of them and their scamminess caused the housing bubble.

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Quote from: TastyChillySauce00 on May 21, 2017, 03:52:14 AM

Quote from: ekoice on May 21, 2017, 01:02:44 AM

Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 09:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

Absolutely,a trader does marketing analysis,financial analysis and does his own research about the coin he is going to invest.He also notices the latest projects and developments which would influence the market and finally decides to take any move on trading.If its just a guess work,then it would not be called trading and it would just resemble gambling.

What if the analyzation and research you just have done gone wrong? Isn't it just an educated guessing after all? there's no obvious result of the research that it's actually just pure speculation.
Predicting the price movements of a crypto coin is like predicting the future, everything is biased and a guess

That's the point that I'm trying to maintain here myself

That trading still basically remains a form of thoroughly disguised gambling even if you can use some sophisticated strategies allegedly capable of telling you future price moves. But as I have already said it a few times earlier, there are still some people able to earn sure profits (e.g. insiders and arbitrageurs), thereby their presence necessarily invalidates any such strategies (and consequently claims based on them) even if they had some substance behind them in efficient markets

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