Is trading just educated guessing? - page 49.

MingLee

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Quote from: Janation on April 23, 2017, 09:13:38 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Trading is also considered as a gambling, meaning even slight, you are relying on your luck. But you can't call that a guess because you are analyzing a data, and it is really ironic when you say educated guess, educated means you analyze data, and a guess is just a wild bullet, so you do not say it is an educated guess, you can say that it is an assumption.

I have never in my life heard of trading as a form of gambling, at least not from people in the business with experience and know how the industry works. From people on the outside I hear a ton of "oh it's just gambling" comments.
There is so little based on luck when it comes to real financial trading that you're making a fool of yourself if you try to just hit it big. Large investors like Warren Buffet and other don't just throw money at a random penny stock and hope that it goes up in value, they play the game and watch to see what will move in a long or short direction, and plan accordingly for it.

digaran

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Using tools is what makes you a successful trader, people not using tools such as trading bots and other useful bots might as well go into the streets and exchange-trade hand to hand.
A good trader always has funds and coins in several exchanges ready with setting bots to automatically generate-trade for him and all he needs is to put more money on each coin or deposit fiat so the bots can function without interruption.
Anyone not adapting with new tools and technologies will fall behind the rest of the world.

Trading requires speed, you need to be fast and act fast but if it's only you doing everything manually then you only get what you are getting unlike the people using bots and as they're earning somewhere else at the same time their bots are earning for them too.

PokerFace3

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Quote from: Janation on April 23, 2017, 09:13:38 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Trading is also considered as a gambling, meaning even slight, you are relying on your luck. But you can't call that a guess because you are analyzing a data, and it is really ironic when you say educated guess, educated means you analyze data, and a guess is just a wild bullet, so you do not say it is an educated guess, you can say that it is an assumption.

You are contradicting yourself. What is the difference between luck and guesswork. Literally both are same, going without reason could be called as luck based or guesswork based. But trading is not working that way.

Moreover I'm not ready to consider trading as gambling even in very small percentage too. People who are approaching trading similar to gambling will be finding only losses at the end of the day. But traders who are depending on their skill will definitely find profits because trading requires your skill not your luck. Your skill will find your lucky moments in trading.

Guesswork may or may not find your luck, that is what happening in gambling.

Theb

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Quote from: geegaw on April 23, 2017, 09:33:46 AM

Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

I agree with you. I am a trader, I can guess prices but I also rely on a lot of information to guess, I never rely on emotions to guess. I always read the charts, analyze the data and observe the market for a long time before making a decision, trading is just educated guessing to be wrong. Trading is based on our experience and skill, we lose if we guess by emotion but if we guess by skill, we will be able to win. Although we are not sure we will be profitable but we certainly limit risks and improve win rate

Well I agree with you Trading relies heavily on its charts rather than educated guessing. And is suited well on the area of cryptocurrencies as until now we really don't have much information if it will go up or down and we only have its charts to base on the trend it has. Also with its given volatility it is safe to say that Trading fits well on Cryptocurrencies.

jovs

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Quote from: wisqo on February 24, 2017, 12:01:26 AM

Educated guessing is a good way of summarizing it. You can never be 100% sure of an outcome (unless as you say you have insider info). However, by following the news and key events likely to impact the price of bitcoin (regulation, past issues that have affected the price) you can then work with a likely outcome. People who trade for a living (whether in bitcoin or fiat) develop a keen sense for picking up signals from the market to make these "educated guesses".

In bitcoin there is always a changes on its price and its transaction. Because change is inevitable so we must take on accepting it and making way to go we the flow. So in bitcoin decision is always vital especially on trader for their tradings. One should monitor the price so they will know if they are going to hold or to buy. So i think educated guessing can be made because its also a matter of taking risk if it going to pump again or dump. We does not have a device on predicting we should just guess with proper education to earn.

Yakamoto

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Far from it and yes it is possible.

For trading, there are multiple signals shown by the market that will either show off a bull-ish outlook for the market or they will show a bear-ish outlook for the stock. You can also exploit timing and recent events, and a whole ton of other things. If you wanna try it, start up a stock trading simulator and just be dedicated to a company and focus down what they do.

geegaw

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 23, 2017, 10:47:26 PM

Nope. I don't think that trading is just educated guessing because if you are a true trader, you will not just guess what will be the price or the move of a particular cryptocurrency coin because you will do a lot of research and a lot of analyzation because that is how you things can be done especially the decisions that you will make in your trading journey great.

I agree with you. I am a trader, I can guess prices but I also rely on a lot of information to guess, I never rely on emotions to guess. I always read the charts, analyze the data and observe the market for a long time before making a decision, trading is just educated guessing to be wrong. Trading is based on our experience and skill, we lose if we guess by emotion but if we guess by skill, we will be able to win. Although we are not sure we will be profitable but we certainly limit risks and improve win rate

xypos

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I never heard about such a funny thing, that someone has ever though that trading is just educated guessing Cheesy

it made me laugh so hard, lol Cheesy

I think we might call it a little bit like that, but it is not guessing but more like making conclusions out of specific price movements. Everyone has the different tactic, so it varies but the core of the whole case it that you observe the candles printed by the asset, and they mix up in a different fashion. And now, it is up to you how are you going to analyze the formation you can see on the screen.

Educating guessing would be more like blindly pointing a direction of trade, and then pseudo-substantiation why have you chosen this exact direction, entry price and sl/tp.

Janation

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Trading is also considered as a gambling, meaning even slight, you are relying on your luck. But you can't call that a guess because you are analyzing a data, and it is really ironic when you say educated guess, educated means you analyze data, and a guess is just a wild bullet, so you do not say it is an educated guess, you can say that it is an assumption.

Xester

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on April 23, 2017, 08:46:23 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

i think trading is not just educated guessing because we need to learn some analysis and we need to learn about each of tools like EMA, SMA, and else. we don't have to learn all the tools but we need to at least know 1 or 2 tools to make analysis. with this, we can predict where the trend will move and we can place our buy or sell in the right price or at least we can place in near of the right price.

That is right, many have thought and misunderstand trading for just a lucky guessing game where in fact it is more complicated than that. Trading involves understanding on economics and movement of the market. Aside from that it is also important to take note of the important tips coming from the expert traders and also the actual experience in trading. And as just what you said tools are also necessary to be successful in trading.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

i think trading is not just educated guessing because we need to learn some analysis and we need to learn about each of tools like EMA, SMA, and else. we don't have to learn all the tools but we need to at least know 1 or 2 tools to make analysis. with this, we can predict where the trend will move and we can place our buy or sell in the right price or at least we can place in near of the right price.

Distinctin

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Quote from: Nevis on April 23, 2017, 07:43:03 AM

Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

No not at all.Like any other investments trading is still a gamble where you can lose all your money if you have done a wrong thing.Still no insurance of earning even if you have an insider info still negative possibilites may happen

Well, at least you have a bigger chance in trading than in gambling. There are more people who are successful in trading and
that fact will prove it is possible to earn money in trading, all has risk but choose the lesser risk which is trading.

Nevis

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

No not at all.Like any other investments trading is still a gamble where you can lose all your money if you have done a wrong thing.Still no insurance of earning even if you have an insider info still negative possibilites may happen

jak3

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trading does contains risk and yet every trader in there starting phases has defiantly faced some losses maybe his whole principle, but all it matters is to build the experience. after getiing some experience on trading you are gonna make some small profits and slowly you can make around 10-20% monthly with trading or maybe even more. Traders face new challenges everyday because the price changes everyday and no programming or calculation can predict the future price. At least till now but programmers are working on a new AI which can predict some part of the future market

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Quote from: machinek20 on March 01, 2017, 09:34:26 AM

I think trading is more than educated guessing, there are no specific formula in trading, all is based on your experience and your skill in reading situation, so you can only learn the basic from the book, to really become a trader you need to do the trade not only by book, educated gueesing can help you in trading but you need to combine it with knowledge and experience to make it successful

guess and predictions are the same thing. However, predictions rely more on an analysis they did, whereas a guess sometimes doing no analysis or can be said to have predicted that without a previously existing data. So although guesses and predictions have in common, but the result will always be different. Then for us to be able to have a pretty good chance in trading you need to know about the science of analysis and then you do a prediction according to the data that you have a collection of analysis

shamzblueworld

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

I think its more of analyzing than guessing. You have to read and understand the flows, charts and motion and the news/hype and the technology around and also the views of people around, although it cannot be 100% but usually it the great traders make calls after all the analysis and data processes, and most often than not, they earn profits with their calls.
So its a guess only for people who are not actually gone to the depth of trading are just doing so for the sake of it, but professional traders, they don't guess.

romero121

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Basic education to analyze all the market moves is a must. Other than this I don't think that trading is just an educated prediction. Price prediction is a required one and the closer prediction we make better will be our earning. So the observation of price variation and the capital is the requirement to profit through trading.

darthmaul

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Wow having an insider info would bring you fortune in the world of trading. However, for people lie us it is not reachable of if you have any then you are in luck. For me your thread title suits a lot, educated guessing. Yes that is what I do and survive in the bitcoin trades. I really look for the time where bitcoin is lower on the chart, buy some bits at that time and let the time do everything rest to ripe my bitcoins for fruitful profits.

pinkpanther03

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Quote from: dannon on February 23, 2017, 07:12:58 PM

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

In my opinion, my answer is No! being a good and professional traders were not doing trade just guessing only, that's not the true meaning of a trader, instead we are doing trade base on the motion value of the coins and market of the coins if it is going to increase or not. The more it swings aggressively its the more we had a chance to gain bitcoin while doing trade in the market platform.

machinek20

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I think trading is more than educated guessing, there are no specific formula in trading, all is based on your experience and your skill in reading situation, so you can only learn the basic from the book, to really become a trader you need to do the trade not only by book, educated gueesing can help you in trading but you need to combine it with knowledge and experience to make it successful

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