Sometimes it is the journey and not the goal. Most often than not, we find more value in what we learn from the journey of reaching the goal compared to the outcome it leads us to. The lessons we learn, the struggles, and the people we meet that is basically connection, allows us to grow and be smarter for our future self and the paths we are soon to take.
The ideas around the journey and the goal are good ones, because ultimately there are going to be a lot of points in life in which we set goals and then we change the goals and sometimes we completely fail in our working towards filling the goals, and we likely even learn along the way, that we likely need to have a bunch of intermediary goals that we need to accomplish before reaching the larger goals, and some of the goals are going to be much easier to achieve, and sometimes we will need to abandon certain paths or even tweak some of the goals along the way.
Failure is inevitable, and sometimes we might be able to frame the failure as success because of what we learned from the failure.. but then again if we are spinning too much, sometimes people will consider us as a phony and we do sometimes need to take responsibility and even talk about some of our failures in order to show parts of our character and to show what kinds of trade offs we sometimes are willing to make.
Because sometime, even you have the best analysis, indicator, or signal, you still onna be wrong. That is a normal part of the game. It doesn't mean you are going to fail, nor if you are going to lose all yur investment. It just mean you lose. Because the market is very unpredictable. The outcome is uncertain so you have to bet and decide which side of the market are you in and when will you participate as much as timing is one of the important factor.
You're right. There should be something that we never expect to happen. Although we already made a good analysis with a proper way, it doesn't guarantee to run smoothly. That's why we need a second plan. So, if the main plan seems not effective anymore, we can change to the alternative plan (second plan).
If we try to predict a kind of trajectory regarding the future, we need to prepare for a variety of possibilities, and that will truly tend to be more than just two directions that something could go. So then we have to question ourselves about how much our preparations are allowing us to be prepared for a variety of directions.. and at what points are we going to take some kind of actions or otherwise just to continue to ride through our previous commitment.
Edit: I had been thinking about this point over the last 12 hours or so, and it seems that some kind of an example might be helpful.
Let's say that a person makes a plan that s/he is going to walk across Europe and Asia to start out in London and going to end in Tokyo.. and that tentatively, s/he believes that it is going to take 4-6 years to accomplish.. So s/he has certain ideas regarding modes of transportation, has some budgetary ideas and has even plotted out stops along the way and has given some timelines staying in each place, so the overall goal is defined generally with some specifics, but it is also likely that there are going to be tweaks of the plans along the way that would change some of the stops, some of the timeline, some of the budgeting and perhaps even change some of the modes of transportation.
Maybe this is not the greatest of analogies, because if we go back to the idea of having a lifetime investing goal that might have objectives to build wealth and/or to become richer with the passage of time so that at some point in life there is no longer any need to work and that the wealth that was built will support the later lifestyle, and the person can live off of the fruits of his/her earlier labor, then there would be hopes and expectations that wealth is building along the way, even if there might be periods of set-backs and even mistakes that are so great that trajectories are changed (and sometimes the mistakes or the change of trajectories might not be realize until several years after the earlier incidents had occurred to realize that the path (and maybe even the expected destination might need to end up getting changed) had been changed by the earlier events).
In crypto, the market will be always unpredictable. Current news/issues can change the trend in a short, green market can turn to be red just in a single day. It is the reason why crypto business is categorized as a high risk.
Regarding the outcome, as long as you understand enough the characteristic of crypto market, you know when to exit and get profits. Crypto has a bearish and bullish season, just choose the right time for entry and exit. It is not very difficult if someone wants to invest a long time, at least for 3-4 years. But it becomes hard if someone wants to get the outcome as soon as possible.
I find your gobbledy-gook talk about crypto to be somewhat meaningless. Now if we are talking about bitcoin, then likely we should not be fucking around too much with trading, but we can figure out various BTC accumulation strategies to just continue to build our bitcoin holdings.
When you are talking about getting in and out and taking profits, then sure you could be taking profits in dollars or you could be taking profits in bitcoin... and anyhow it would likely be a bit better to clarify what you are talking about when you refer to general ideas about crypto because that does not make very much sense outside of distinguishing bitcoin from shitcoins, and perhaps clarifying that your strategy for bitcoin should be different from getting in and out of various shitcoins.. including that maybe you might even be attempting to analyze whether or not your shitcoin is going to go up or down relative to what bitcoin is doing.. but then hey, when members speak in vagueness in regards to throwing around the term crypto, it tends to cause me a considerable amount of confusion regarding that vague way of expressing themselves, even if they might have some decent strategies of getting in and out of various shitcoins.. but then how are you measuring progress.. in dollars (that seems lame) or in bitcoin (that is better, but why didn't you specify that as part of what you are doing? rather than using vagueness in your description?).
Plans for how to mitigate risk and manage problems can be a good thing. But too much planning is not necessary for everyone to manage things. The reason why people don't follow difficult things is because they don't want to come out of their comfort zones.
I am struggling to understand when a plan is said to be too much because the last time I checked, planning is actually the absence of irrational decision and action. I think what you might be mistaken for planning might actually be fear. I know a lot of people who are too afraid of making mistakes, hence, they end up developing fear at any slightest opportunity. I have worked with few of them and they always fail their medical test due to high blood pressure.
I am a bit bothered when I see people placing too much emphasis on planning, and surely there needs to be some planning for any action that is taken, but some of the best ways of learning is to start to act and then to learn from the action and to tweak the plans based on what is learned from the actions. I understand that many times the foundational plans need to be in place prior to action, but there are a lot of places where action helps to solidify the plan.
I am yet to see what can beat planning because every great success depends on it. Even the popular DCA that I have recently starting using in buying Bitcoin is a clear case of planning. Planning can never be too much....
DCA into bitcoin is one of those places where you can start to act almost right away.. because it does not take a lot to get started.
On the other hand getting into a romantic relation, starting a business or buying a house. those might need greater levels of planning, but one of the greatest things about DCA'ing into bitcoin is that you can get started right away with ONLY $1 per day and then figure out the details as you go.... Of course, if you want to lump sum invest into bitcoin, and to take out debt and employ sophisticated financial tools (practices), then you likely need more planning.