Topic: JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance) - page 2. (Read 1366 times)

Hello JJG.

i see you are always mentioning the tool in WO thread. I am happy that it is being useful!

I am thinking about future improvements, and I was reading this old post again,

I noticed that in your original sheet, you were thinking much about the past months and the overall balance.


Do you think it would be nice to make a chart of this column C??

It is doable, we just need to enter an input where which would mean when to start using this strategy. I was thinking about showing the past, like you did here.

Fair enough.  I can see how there could be an incentive to sell up to $5k per month but not necessarily to sell more than that - unless there were some kind of an extra reason, yet I am not sure how much that would affect my own calculation, except maybe if you are just wanting to make sure that you can get out $5k every months and to be able to hold that in reserves so that you could have that amount each month building up and in safe keeping in order to buy back at later dates if the BTC price dips and without having extra tax consequences, as long as it is within your own personal portfolio management limitations, then surely, you could end up attempting to play that angle in terms of having fiat build up.. but it still does not necessarily get you out of a potential trap of selling more than what you should have had sold based on your own personal concerns that you had not accumulated enough BTC. 

At earlier dates you told me your own perception that you feel that you don't have enough BTC to start to use this tool, so you already likely realize that I don't recommend selling as a way to accumulate more BTC.. so you have to be willing to accept that you may well never be able to buy back those BTC at lower prices and to have that as your parameter for using the tool, even though the higher up in the categories that the BTC price gets relative to spot price, the more that we likely can recognize that the higher prices are likely not sustainable.. but it still does not mean that once the BTC price does ultimately drop to more reasonable levels that it would end up dropping below your earlier sold price.

By the way: I just looked at the tool and I just realized that on the right hand side, we might need total boxes for BTC and dollars that adds up the monthly sale and the advance authorization for sales.. so in the current situation it would be 1 month current month + 3 months in advance and show the results for 4 months for the total potential authorization, and of course we still know that having the authorization does not mean that we need to exercise it.. even though on the tool it says "optional - yet recommended". . maybe we should say "optional-yet recommended to consider, especially if the BTC spot price is 400% or more above the 200-WMA"... hahahahahaha.. so many qualifications in the recommendation.. and at the same time, saying, "don't come crying to us if this recommendation does not work out for you, since you are still responsible for your own choices, actions and/or failures to choose or act."


Of course, you are correct about the concept of "not-your-keys-not-your-coins," especially in regards to the self-sovereignty and better kinds of assurances of preserving your wealth kinds of angles of bitcoin, but none of my sustainable withdrawal ideas, whether it is the first tool or the raking tool rely upon self-custody in order to work towards trying to carry them out, even though I agree with you that there could be a certain level of either rug pulling or even freezing of accounts/assets or blocking of access to assets/accounts that comes from the use and/or reliance upon 3rd parties to hold our keys and to give you BTC price exposure.

So yes, your BTC price exposure is likely to be more secure if you hold your own keys.... but even that is not a given.. not that I am discouraging the holding of your own keys, since much of the base power and value of bitcoin comes from the fact that normies, and/or institutions and/or rich people, and/or governments are able to hold their own keys without much if any reliance upon 3rd parties.. and there is surely a lot of power in that, which would likely completely eliminate BTC's value proposition if it were not possible for the holding of your own keys.. so yeah.. holding your own keys is pretty damned close to the raison d'etre for bitcoin's having any value beyond various current financial products, assets and/or currencies.

Having said all of that, I am not convinced that I need to post about self-sovereignty in this thread, even though I don't disagree with the point(s) that you are making and maybe such wallet security ideas might fit better in my investment ideas thread (which is broader in scope than this sustainable withdrawal/portfolio maintenance thread).  I am not even that great about the self-sovereignty idea, even though my signature refers to my concerns about "self-custody [being] a right."

I am actually thinking that there are so many times that I am referring to my entry-level fuck you status chart, and that causes me to consider that maybe that entry-level fuck you status chart fits better into this thread rather than my other thread - so yeah, these kinds of ideas overlap, and how they are prioritized and/or organized is not always clear.


I do anticipate that there are some fairly unique angles in the way that I am framing these sustainable withdrawal ideas in regards to bitcoin, yet I will still question the level of the supposed fame and/or importance of these ideas "in the world," since so far (to date) I have not received any requests from either mainstream media and/or bitcoin-related media (such as podcasters) to discuss these ideas, including no DMs nor inquiring posts in any forum threads that are currently related to either ideas of sustainable withdrawal or my related investment ideas topic.

It is almost like you are suggesting that if I were to be writing my BTC-related sustainable investment ideas book, I need a chapter on security and wallet maintenance in order to make my book complete, and if I have not spent enough time developing such topic of wallet maintenance, then I need to spend some additional time engaged and developing my ideas in that direction.. but I am still not convinced about whether I need to elaborate more on that topic in this thread, even though I would not necessarily mind linking to threads that discuss the idea.. if that might potentially be a reasonable and/or practical compromise.

You can also see that Opening Post 5 of my investment ideas thread also has a similar problem of NOT being developed, so far.

I think while determining what is yet to be discussed here, wallet security maintenance should also be included because one could maintain or hodl bitcoin for as long as need or advise and lose them within few mistakes.

So in portfolio maintenance security should be considered.

I searched on the Google search engine about Bitcoin investment maintenance and this thread of yours JayJuanGee was among the suggested result, what I'm saying in essence is JayJuanGee you're probably not just educating people in the forum but world at large indirectly through this thread and if they only know about the investment and sustainable withdrawal method it's still lacking security (wallet maintenance) as it's paramount for health Bitcoin journey.

Thanks for sharing your personal recommendation. I will try to hold my hand a bit more.

However,  there is a particular situation here in Brazil.

If I sell up to 5k usd of bitcoin each month,  it is tax free.

If I sell 6k usd , I will have to pay 15% taxes of my gains of everything .

So, if the price next month reaches 60k (15% more) and I make a big sell, I will have only 52k for each btc as I will have to pay 15% in taxes.

I will try to hold until 29 February,  as the price can be higher, but this is risky as the price can also go down.

Surely, I have been dancing around this topic, and considering how to potentially address the idea - especially since I think that there could be some disadvantages to liberally employing the advance selling authorizations, and probably your use of such tool would give you advantages of having that hedge, but at the same time it is going to lock you out of being able to sell any more BTC until 1) the 3 months in advance had run and the price dropped below 66% above the 200WMA or 2) if the BTC price stayed within the 66% to 100% range and each month you just continued to add another month so that you continued to stay in 3 months in advance debt, or 3) if the BTC price crosses higher into the next higher threshold (which is the 100% to 200% range - which would allow you to sell up to 5 months in advance - or 2 more months in advance if you had already sold 3 months in advance).

Another thing, about selling within the range, there could still be some questions (or discretion) regarding at what price point to sell - especially since the tool is showing ONLY that the BTC price has barely gotten into the 66% to 100% above the 200WMA range...   right now as I type, it is ONLY at 67.4%.. and yeah surely discretion, but alto potential problems in which if you were to NOT sell in advance, and then the price dips, then you might run regrets at the level that you choose to pull that sell trigger.

Of course,  the buying back could be structured to be triggered at various percentages, so maybe you would want the price to drop a whole level, or maybe you are not so inclined to getting high profits so you merely structure buy backs in 5% price drop increments, and either way you have potential risk that the price does not drop enough to meet your buy backs, but if you are starting to use the tool with the presumption that you have enough BTC, then you should be able to structure any anticipated buy back in a way that contributes towards your remaining somewhat emotionally neutral in terms of whether you buy back or not.

I am glad that you want to potentially play around with the advance withdrawal portion of the tool and attempt to put that part into practice, and personally, I was considering not really employing the months in advance sales until the BTC price were to start to get into the 400% to 600% above the 200-WMA range, and so maybe that would be waiting too long, but I am already employing some variation of my raking tool (which is already a pretty solid tool/practice), so I am not feeling any kind inclination to want to employ the advance withdrawal options of the sustainable withdrawal tool... Maybe I am a bit more comfortable with the raking tool as a more solid foundation that is more incremental in its withdrawal authorization, versus the sustainable withdrawal tool that authorizes quite a few extra months at a time... so maybe it is more complicated to try to attempt to apply both and that may be why my own personal threshold for advance withdrawal is higher up there (even though it is nice to be able to look at the tool and to see that I have the option for advance withdrawal, if I were to choose to want to exercise it).  

Just a personal recommendation, bitmover.. even though the ranges that I selected are somewhat arbitrary rather than graduated (do we need to change the tool to be more graduated), maybe it would be better to wait unti the BTC price is somewhere in the middle of the range before employing the advance withdrawal option?  perhaps? perhaps?  So the middle of the range would be somewhere around 83%.. so maybe if you were to consider pulling the trigger somewhere between 80% and 86%.. that gives you 3% on each side?  Or another possibility could be to stagger your advance withdrawals.. 1 month advance towards the bottom of the range, the second month advance at the middle of the range and the third month in advance towards the top of the range...   I tend to prefer to be a bit of an incrementalist in my approach rather than taking BIG chunks at a time, so these kind of practices can vary from person to person, too.

By the way, my writing of this response to you reminds me that we have not yet put a disclaimer on the page of the tool in order to say that the use of the tool is within the complete responsibility and discretion of the person using such tool and does not in any way constitute financial advice and to employ the tool at your own risk... including to not come crying to any of us if you use the tool or you do not use the tool and then end up losing money as a result of your choices and/or misplaced reliances... and maybe we could also proclaim that both buying bitcoin or refusing to buy bitcoin could result in the loss of money.... so each person is responsible to think for himself/herself when it comes to whether to invest into bitcoin or not, how to invest and what kinds (and levels) of allocations and/or maintenance of such bitcoin investment, if any.

JayJuanGee,  price is already 68% above 200WMA.
I was thinking about creating a reinvest reserve.

Considering the actual tool allows us to sell 3 months in advance, it would be interesting to think about buying back those 3 months if we see some corrections ahead (which are very likely to happen)

The point is: when to reinvest?

Considering the 200WMA,  we  could expect the price is about 0-30% 200WMA to reinvest? This could work

If your are referring to some kind of video content on the page, then I think that we have these kinds of suggestions in the back of our minds, though neither of us personally are wanting to do this kind of thing.

Even logically it would seem most appropriate for someone like me (the creator) to explain the content in a video (or a cartoon), but I have not been presenting myself in the actual live video form on the forum, and not even my avatar has been animated, so far.  OpSec, you know.

So then there can be questions whether we could come up with something animated (such as a cartoon in the event that we cannot figure out some other animated content..) as we improve upon the page and even add more pages, so maybe once we have the first few basic pages in place (adding one or more tools), then we might be able to consider possible ways to add some additional animation or visuals to the content.

I am not even opposed to guys making specific suggestions or even proposing some kind of an animation (or visuals) that we could add or even pay for it if someone were to want to negotiate a reasonable price to do it and if they were to present the materials in a way that seems to be more helpful than not.

I was referring to the fact that the user could have her inputs saved on the chart upon returning to the webpage. But @bitmover did a very good job storing the data in the browser cache, which is a great privacy-related feature.
So, no need to register.

I really like the idea of sustainable withdrawals! Great job indeed, to JayJuanGee for the idea and Bitmover for the website!

Although I greatly appreciate JayJuanGee's love for details, I think that for the website, a simplified explanation or, better yet, an animated demonstration might benefit those who already struggle with the English language or with basic comprehension skills.

The deeper details can be added to a documentation page (or just keep it linked it to JJG's idea thread on Bitcointalk).

Personally,  I will try to avoid any registration  (unless we decide to monetize some functionalities.)

There are ways to save data locally in your browser, using localStorage
https://developer.mozilla.org/pt-BR/docs/Web/API/Window/localStorage

I use it another tools such as the balance Checker . You can make a search and you will see the addreses again when you return (saved locally in your computer)
https://bitcoindata.science/bitcoin-balance-check.html

Thanks for the spelling lesson.. yet I am not sure if i understand the reference for coming back multiple times and a potential triggering of registration?  Is that referring to the creation of a website, and attempts at monetization?  because there are a lot of bitcoin related sites that allow playing around and manipulating of data, but no need to register.  Or are you referring to google spreadsheets?  

Of course we likely realize that there is a kind of spirit of open-source in bitcoin, and sometimes even open-source could end up being monetized, even though at the same time, there can be areas of discontent because more sophisticated (or better marketers) could end up taking open-sourced ideas (and code) and then just creating their own version (and maybe close sourcing that), which may or may not end up being better than the original variation.

I just edited the labels as per your suggestion!
And
Voilà!!!!!

Now the spreadsheets updates automatically when you enter the numbers in the green cells.

I can’t wait to see the final website.
Even if I have a concern: if you want to play with those hypothesis, you might want to come back multiple times. Coming back multiple times call for some sort of registration: but is this privacy friendly?

Yes.  That does look better in terms of highlighting that the green fields are the ones in which data would be entered, and then Viola!!!!! The spreadsheet will do the remainder of the calculations based on what is put into the green input fields.. although the labels are not input fields.. #justsaying..  hahahahaha

And, yeah, it is probably better to choose some kind of a similar format across various spreadsheets, whether it is color or some other way of distinguishing input fields from non-input fields.


Yes.  Thanks a lot bitmover.  Like you suggested, I think that we are getting very close to a version that would be ready for public release and open for public commentary.  Furthermore, the website (rather than spreadsheet) design would likely be more user-friendly, yet I am thinking that we still might have some uphill battles in regards to getting folks used to thinking about spot price in relation to 200-week moving average - because people get so focused upon spot price, and maybe even become confused about what to do in regards to managing their bitcoin holdings and when to do it, and hopefully tools like this can be helpful in terms of providing some guidelines to bitcoin holders in regards to more conservative, moderate and/or aggressive ways in which they might choose to spend their coins.


For sure, anyone who considers using either this strategy or even the strategy that is described in Opening post 3, may well need to consider whether he has assessed his bitcoin to be in a kind of "overaccumulation" or even a sufficiently adequately accumulated status, so in that regard, I consider either the strategy from Opening Post 2 or the one from Opening post 3 to help to serve as ways to provide insurance for something close to inevitable bitcoin volatility that has been in its history, and there is no reason to conclude that such inevitable volatility is not going to continue into the future, and surely we do not always know which direction the BTC price is going to go or how intense such price performance is going to be in one direction or the other.. but one of the things that does seem most guaranteed about bitcoin and its price performance is that it is quite strongly likely to continue to be ongoingly volatile.

By the way, from my discussions with bitmover, it does seem that he is planning to start a new thread in regards to the website related to Opening Post 2, and I will likely continue to keep this thread active and provide a link to such thread, if that is the direction that the discussion goes.  We are also in discussions regarding the creation of another website for Opening post 3, and over the years, I had seen some of bitmover's earlier work products in the creation of websites about bitcoin (and form-related) subject matters, and of course bitmover has a thread in which he talks about his bitcoin unit conversion website.. which is a pretty handy tool for quick conversion of BTC (or choose other bitcoin units) to dollars but to other currencies (and a bonus that it does not include shitcoins - unless you want to consider fiat as a shitcoin?.. hahahahhaha).

I have been working with JJG in a tool to implement this idea in a website. We will release the first version soon, and it will be nice to see fillippone and others who are discussing this giving their suggestion about this new tool.

---

This is a very interesting strategy. I plan to implement this strategy in my personal BTC withdrawals from next month, as we are moving to confortable rates above the 200WMA now (about 47% already)

What about this?



All the cells that need to be edited are highlighted in Green. 
Every other format is directly computed from those green cells cells.
Settling a unique format for the cells to be edited can be a nice idea, even more if this is coherent across the various spreadsheets.

Thanks.  Yes, it looks the same, and some members might not be able to create their own tables with those kinds of formulas on their own, so it can be quite powerful to be able to have a table like that and to be able to plug in your own numbers and then to see how it comes out differently for changes in the variables and/or changes in the assumptions of probabilities, and I am not sure if it might be helpful to better highlight which numbers are changeable and which numbers have formulas.  Of course, if you click on the cell you can see whether it contains a formula or a raw number, and if it has a raw number then it is changeable, and if it has a formula then it is referring to other cells in order to calculate its results.

Another thing is that any member can take the table from the link and copy it to their own, and rename it, and none of the information would be traceable as to how it is being used - absent regular issues of possible compromised google accounts or back doors into google.. but anyhow, there would at least be enough privacy from other forum members seeing what they put in those fields, unless they choose to share such information, which I don't have any problem with that, but probably it is still better to present the information in terms of hypothetical people rather than claiming the numbers to be your own numbers... just for OPSec reasons.

Now we are talking!



Here, you have the Google Sheet equivalent of your pictures, where you can let your reader play with data.
I think there are many mumblings to be done here, but we are now on the same page.

O.k.. Yes.. Now, I can see the formulas in there, and for some reason, I did not look at your formulas in my earlier response. .and so I should have been able to figure out the difference between what we were doing by looking at your formulas as compared with mine.  Whoops.  My bad.


Ok.   Now I see where we are different because you are using the whole rake amount and assigning the success probability to it, which ends up completely ignoring the specific locations of the each of the projected reinvestments (which in this table I am taking from the reinvestment reserves - and you got the reinvestment reserves and also each of the reinvestment amounts the same as mine in row 88  .. Anyhow, my cell X89 formula looks like this for the earlier version:

=SUM(X88-AA88)+((AH88+AL88+AP88)*AI$82)  or (10-2)+((0.59259259+.074074074+1.05820106)*0.4167)

After I saw that your numbers were different from mine, I thought (without properly analyzing your formulas) that you did something like this second formula with yours.
 
=SUM(X88-AA88)+((AH88*AI$79)+(AL88*AI$80)+(AP88*AI$81))

.. but, yeah my revised formula did not resolve the discrepancy.. so I should have spent more time studying your cell formulas to catch the specifics...  whoops..

So, yeah, I think that the second formula is more accurate than the first one since it uses the projected success rate for each of the periods of 70%, 40% and 15% rather than using the success rate average of 46.67%.


Even though I was kind of guessing when i put 70%, 40% and 15%, I think that we should use the second formula rather than the average of 41.67% because I do believe that using the percentage for each of the buy back intervals/increments allows for getting at making more accurate / realistic estimates...and yeah, who knows if anyone is going to use these formulas.. but I do see that I some folks are going to become less confused if they look at the formulas to make sure they understand what the spreadsheet is doing..

Actually, if you look at the formulas in my Google Sheets, you see that I take the average as well.

It looks to me the first difference between our sheets is in cell X89, in your spreadsheet.
My value computation is pretty simple:
BTC_{previous period}-Rake BTC _{previous period}+Rake BTC _{previous period}*Reinvestment success avg

OR

10-2+2*0,4167

I might have misunderstood some of your explanations if I cannot reconcile the first step in your spreadsheet.




I don't know what is accurate; these just work Hypotheses, once we agree o. those, we can start figuring out the rest. 

I updated the spreadsheet, but still I am somewhat confused by not being able to exactly replicate the number you get in your own sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zxMAwt2yHg9Nr7VMgo0zJe6igc8ZdYRpxfCWEr_Ds6w/edit?usp=sharing