Topic: JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance) - page 3. (Read 1331 times)

Thanks for that.  I had not realized that the formula that I had used in my row 3 was referring to a different cell so the values in my version came out a bit wrong, and your version (of the values of Row 3) is correct because it refers back to the 200-week moving average (in cell N3).  Thanks for catching that.


Edit: By the way, regarding format, I am not sure if I am going to be making any more changes, yet the potential interface with a web version could well end up influencing and inspiring some more ideas.  I think that there might be some kinds of underlying rebellion to the ideas of basing actions on the 200-week moving average because people get so excited about tops in the BTC spot price, and surely I am trying to figure out some formula attempts that would give guidance and hope to take some of the emotion out of some of these matters, and I am also thinking about placing another kind of price-based withdrawal strategy in this thread.... .. but I am having a bit of a dilemma in terms of not wanting to confuse the ideas too much... since it seems to me that there is already some confusion regarding the creation of withdrawal limits that are based on the direction and distance of the BTC spot price from the 200-week moving average.

Here is the updated version:



Sorry for the delay.
I would wait for the definitive layout to tackle formatting issues.
There are some inconsistencies in the cells in row 3. K3:X3. can you clarify what is wrong?

Of course, since I have made a couple of revisions since OP, I do consider the extent to which I might want to change the OP in order to reflect the latest changes and the latest clarifications. 

So far, in this thread, we have not heard from any forum members who have been trying out the spreadsheet, and even you, fillippone, mentioned that you consider that you may well not be quite far enough in your own personal bitcoin journey to employ such a system.. even though surely, the applications can be wider than some people had previously considered.  In other words, your BTC portfolio may well not even need to be at fuck you status in order to start to employ such sustainable withdrawals that may gravitate more towards the growth end of the spectrum or on the other hand more towards the liquidation end of the spectrum (which could also be stated as less sustainable).

I had also considered that the whole row 18 has the same BTC amount, so it might not serve any additional purpose to have the same number repeated, even though it serves as the base reference amount in which either the whole thing is authorized as monthly withdrawal as in column P, or a fraction of it is authorized as withdrawal as in columns K through O.  Or multiples of months are authorized for discretionary withdrawal as reflected in row 20 columns Q through X.  It is still not clear in my own head regarding how to exercise such discretion to withdraw multiple months because surely there is some attempts at foresight involved, and if higher prices are anticipated, it would surely be advantageous to withdraw multiple months in advance (and probably even a fiduciary responsibility to do so, but there still would be some judgement involved regarding when to employ it in order to attempt to get more benefits from it).

As I mentioned to you in PM, I am working on (looking into) some possibilities to get these ideas integrated into some kind of an interactive website - which may well end up making the input versus the output to become more user-friendly and perhaps even to help to make the ideas more salient - while at the same time, I am not yet at liberties to disclose much more than that - even though it could be a pretty BIG development and helpful to bitcoin HODLers who are interested in these kinds of sustainable withdrawal ideas.

I am sorry JJG, I somehow missed this post and I am lagging on the updates.
I am traveling over the long weekend we have here in Italy, with limited access to all my forum machinery. I will try to improve the spreadsheet according to your indications asap.

At the risk of over-complication, I decided to update the chart/table again to: 1) add the 200-week moving average in there (columns H, I & J).. and since it was getting so cluttered, 2) remove account 2.



Adding in the 200-week moving average, and being able to see it next to the BTC spot price (columns D, E & F) might help to show more clearly what is being attempted here, in terms of the withdrawals authorizations being measured in terms of the bottom (the 200-week moving average), so the value of the account had been fluctuating in price more in terms of Spot price, yet the 200-week moving average continues to move up slowly, and most likely if we are trying to keep the account balance somewhat stable, then our withdrawal rate would potentially come close to flattening out the account's value in terms of the 200-week moving average.  

Of course, most of us likely realize that the cost of living continues to go up so much in terms of the dollar value, but if the withdrawal amount (limit) of our budget might slowly continue to go up, then that should not be a bad problem to have, so probably none of us should mind if even the value of the account continues to go up in terms of the 200-week moving average, even if we might be ongoingly withdrawing from it, and feeling that we are no longer feeling any need for our account to grow in any meaningful way beyond just making sure it covers the increases in the cost of living in terms of dollars.


I am hoping to get closer to more of a finalized version so that there would not be too many more changes to format type issues, and maybe there were just a few too many unexpected format-related changes?  

I am not unreceptive to some changes to the colors, and I did send you a PM, too.

Edited: the above is the latest chart to my opening post 2, and seems to be the foundational ideas for Bitmover's helping me to create an interactive website.

Spreadsheet updated.
Willing to give you editing powers JJG! Not sure how long I can stay on par with you!




Also your colour scheme is giving me headaches! Luckily I am not colour blind-yet.

Lol. What happens with this guy? Is this an account created specifically to troll JJG?


I suppose we could take advantage of this depending on the personal moment we find ourselves in. If we are at retirement age it would be more reasonable to have a higher withdrawal rate and just try to maintain the value of the account, while if we are not retired or if we are but we do not have other assets, as we talked about in the previous post, it would be more logical to withdraw less and try to make the account still grow.

I could not resist but to make a few adjustments to my table in order to 1) add descriptions to the spends from they accounts, 2) show the dollar amounts for each month and that way we can see how the dollar value of the account changes, 3) highlight a couple of the values related to how the BTC spot price relates to the 200-week moving average, which showed me that I had mislabelled row three and it should be BTC spot price - even though the highlighted cell is 200-week moving average.

Adding of the dollar value did really highlight that a 4% withdrawal rate is likely quite a bit too low in terms of a sustainable amount, even though it might be an acceptable withdrawal rate if the goal is to allow the account(s) to continue to grow... so if the goal would be to attempt to mostly maintain the value of the account,  most likely the withdrawal rate would need to be quite a bit higher than 4% per year, perhaps double or more.

Yes.  You must be referring to having had read the combination of both of my investment threads since this particular thread will likely become more applicable (and even meaningful), once a person has either come close to reaching a target or goal or sets aside a certain quantity of bitcoin that he wants to use for a kind of passive/sustainable income stream based on the quantity of the coins in the fund and the withdrawal rate that he might set up.. or if he might also want to change some of the variables in regards to the how much is authorized to withdraw based on how far the BTC spot price is from the 200-week moving average.


I frequently assert that DCA surely can apply to anyone who is in the BTC accumulation stage, but it is even particularly better for the very beginner who might still be trying to figure out how aggressive he might be able to be in accordance with his own budget and psychology.  So even if you have hardly any clue about either bitcoin or details of your budget, including how much debt you have and how your cashflow and expenses vary, you still might be able to figure out enough about your financial situation to realize that you probably could buy $100 per week, but since you hardly have any clue abut your own situation (because you have been kind of sloppy and irresponsible or whatever), you can still just decide to invest $10 per week while you spend the next several weeks or even couple of months to get your financial matters in order and at least so you have better ideas about what is going on.  

So I frequently will suggest that people start out right away and figure out some of the details as you go, and then once you have your financial matters in order, then you can maximize your level of aggressiveness on your BTC investing. ... which I am not necessarily suggesting that someone who had been neglecting their finances is going to be able to get out of holes in a quick way, but you could start buying a little bit of bitcoin in the meantime.. and then the stronger financial situation would have mostly either taken care of various kinds of debt or got them under control, built up a cashflow reserve and/or emergency fund that covers 3-6 months or more of living expenses and emergencies that could come up (and yeah you don't exactly know the emergencies in advance so you need to attempt to make reasonable estimates of that.. maybe double your cash reserves or some amount you consider to put you in a good position that you would almost never have to be able to touch any of your investments, whether bitcoin or any other investment that you have at a time that is anything other than your own choosing.. and probably with bitcoin, it may well need to be the last of your investments that you should touch, even though it is more liquid than a lot of other investments, but it is likely amongst the best, but those would be choices that you would have to make if you got in to such a situation and hopefully you would already build up measures so you are not even put into such a position).

Sure, when deciding to start out investing into bitcoin you do need to make a determination that you believe that in the future that it has good odds of going up in price, even though it is not guaranteed to go up but that its investment thesis is sufficiently strong, and so you likely don't need to be very convinced in the very beginning, since one of the more important things is just getting the fuck started rather than sitting around and trying to figure it out, but as you are investing on a DCA basis, getting your financial matters in order and a lot of that, you can also continue to study into bitcoin, and surely some people are more busy than others in terms of their abilities to study bitcoin in terms of their balancing of other obligations that they might have..  and some people are faster learners than others.  So not all of us can go from not knowing hardly anything about bitcoin and then into giving national interviews in a matter of months.. like Michael Saylor - to the extent that he is even a human... so sometimes it could take a year or two to get more strongly convicted and then maybe also going from $10 per week, then to $50 per week, and then $100 per week and then $200 per week, and maybe even first getting your finances cleaned up, such as paying off debts, establishing an emergency fund, maybe projecting out cashflows to be able to better see future cashflow shortfalls, perhaps cutting some expenses and even increasing income...

Then after doing many of these things, it might start to become more clear what the BTC target is, and it might not be completely locked in place because there might be other variables too to figure out if you have any other investments and then to perhaps consider if you are going to invest in anything other than bitcoin and cash, and surely the more your bitcoin might become multiples of years of your annual expenses, then you might start to think about needs to have other investments so that all of your assets are not just in bitcoin and cash... discretionary and personal choices involved with those matters.


I frequently suggest that even if normies attempt to be somewhat aggressive and they invest 10% of their income into investments (in this case bitcoin), it is going to take 10 years just to get to 1 years worth of salary to be invested, and so sometimes there may be needs to be more aggressive than 10% in order to make faster progress, but then there is also the variable regarding how well your investment is performing in comparison to the cost of living increases, so if your investment is merely moving at parity, then you still are going to ONLY be at around 1 years income after 10 years, so any time that you are able to cut down some of those timelines without devolving into gambling (or overly risky strategies) then that would be a good thing, and so some of that will become more apparent as you go, too... Your investment, your own practices in regards to how interactive you are with it and how it is performing will surely help to inform you more about which of the charts are more relevant to you, and surely you will continue to run across variations of these kinds of ideas and maybe find some kinds of information to be more persuasive (or compatible with your personality) than others.

---

Since this is a self-moderated thread.  Don't consider my willingness to entertain your mostly child-ish stupidity and purposeful shit-stirring exaggeration to be either an invitation for dumb and mostly non-substantive comments or a waiver of my unilateral right and ability to delete posts with or without reason.  I am usually pretty tolerant in this regard, so I would rather see a pattern rather than just going based on one post.. even though you do already have a post history in the WO thread, but that thread has more tolerance for off-topicness and nuisances.

In other words you are pushing it, which you likely already realized that, and so surely a post like this would most likely not get deleted from the WO thread, so you are more than free to post things like this in that thread and press your luck that you won't even cross over the line in those there parts in terms of your unsubstantiated nonsense.


Makes no sense.  I am talking about various ways to approach bitcoin investing.. but yeah, I have some decently strong ideas about bitcoin that mostly lean towards everyone should get off zero first by accumulating BTC, and also start out by investing 1% to 25% of his/her investment portfolio into bitcoin. .and sure I have other ideas too which are in my two investment ideas threads (including this one).


If you consider bitcoin mostly as a investment then accumulation is best accomplished in the beginning by consistent forms of buying which would mostly be 1) DCA, 2) lump sum buying and 3) buying on dips.  Surely selling could come into play both as a tactic of playing the price waves, but also a means of maintaining a portfolio, which may well presume a sort of over investment, but frequently we have to be careful with selling if we are in early accumulation phases because of difficulties to determining the top and also putting us in a bad mental framework if our goals are accumulating and we sell as a tactic to accumulate more.

Selling 60% to 90% at peak presumes knowing when the peak is going to be which overall is a specialty rather than a must and it may well not even be a good idea for more experienced and well to do traders. even surely sometimes some of them get lucky... but when it comes to investing it seems better to not be putting too much weight on luck and taking chances.. maybe until such time that you really might spend several years learning about bitcoin and trading and surely there could be some newbies to bitcoin who already have such skills, but not really generally applicable ideas rather than a niche group..and I am not really going to be as helpful to some of those folks who actually might fit in some of those niche groups..  

Even though I have several charts with probabilities and projections, I don't claim to be very smart... especially when it comes to figuring out short term BTC price directions.. but even with that we can frequently assign probabilities to directions of some of the indicators in order to figure out personal strategies in order to attempt to help ourselves to be both directionally correct and attempting to prepare (financially and psychologically) for BTC price moves in either direction (even extreme moves).


I have a pretty long post history in this forum, and it likely can be verified that almost none of my posts have been deleted over the years, and very few of my posts are edited beyond the first hour or so.. I would speculate that probably less than 1.5% of my posts are edited more than an hour after they were posted.. that is if such there is any way to verify that kind of a thing.  So anyhow, what I am suggesting is that my post history speaks for itself, including that I have likely developed in my substantive ways over the last nearly 10 years too (9 years and 9 months).

P.s.  Another thing in regards to your off-topicness Antisthenes, to the extent that you are even trying to grapple with bitcoin -related matters rather than fantasy, you are potentially mentioning ways to sell on the way up and then either to get in cash and/or implicitly to possibly buy back at a lower price, and so even though the substance of this thread's topic does have selling within it, there is a presumption of already having had reached a target accumulation level, but at the same time there are allowances to sell greater amounts of the monthly sell budget - and even several months in advance (up to 60 months in advance) in accordance with this chart, so there could be some possibilities that the administrator of the budget may well decide to use some of those advance sales to buy back bitcoin, especially if the BTC price were to either get close to the 200-week moving average or to go below the 200-week moving average, so I suppose in those circumstances then those bought back bitcoin would just be folded back into overall account value and then to be able to increase future monthly allocation amounts based on the account increasing in value, and then just presumably with the passage of time, it seems quite likely that the 200-week moving average just continues to go up rather than ever going into the negative (even though it would not be impossible for the 200-WMA to go into the negative, it is just not part of the more likely future scenarios).

Any sane person reading this thread, better come quickly to these conclusions:

1) JjGLBtQ++ is a fagot AI, run mainly by his two daddies, with the sole purpose of controlling the Bitcoin narrative.

2) Selling - at the peak - 60%-90% of the Bitcoin accumulated in every four year cycle is a must.

3) Humans cannot actually rationalise with AI’s, it is not their “thing” - only much worse with JjGLBtQ++ Bitcoin focused AI.

Very useful information, perfectly outlined and well explained investment plan. I have always been wanting to execute a DCA strategy but i have no idea or target on how to implement it yet probably because I don’t have the necessary orientation about it yet. I just came across this post earlier today, and i was so interested in it that I spent the whole day reading through it from the beginning (BTC investment ideas thread). I find it very useful as it will help guide me through my investment decisions of accumulating BTC.

I believe the DCA method is the best fit for me out of the three accumulation strategies because I am one of the majority of normies who don't make a lot of money but are still interested in investing in bitcoin. Due to the lack of capital, the lump sum accumulation approach is too much for me, and I am not skilled at timing the market, therefore I cannot use the buy the dip strategy.

Thanks to this useful post, I now completely understand how to construct a bitcoin investing plan and also learnt some more things useful along the line although I will still need to revisit it in order to get some clarifications. We appreciate you sharing with us this information.

That is nice.. especially when I click on it and I can see the formulas.  

I generally like the idea of having it much easier for anyone who logs into this thread to be able to just take the spreadsheet and the formulas contained therein, and to just plug in their own numbers.. but yeah.. there might need to be better clarity in regards to which are the cells that are input cells (to plug in your own data - or to update such as (k,3) with the 200-week moving average) and which cells are reference cells.

Regarding missing anything:  
1) I suppose it might be o.k. to round out the dollar values to not show decimals.  My version had shown two decimals.

2) I had used the florescent green in rows 19 and 40 in order to highlight one month's budget, and sure even I am a bit confused about how to present one month's budget with clarity because what I conceive to happen once the BTC spot price becomes 33% or higher above the 200-week moving average, then there develops authorization to spend more than one month at a time, and since those would be discretionary determinations, I ONLY put the monthly amounts of rows 19 and 40 into florescent green.

In regards to ideas to improve the sheet -
1) I think that it is better to start with what is there, first.. which you seem to have accomplished pretty well.. and I still am having so many problems with GoogleSpreadsheet formulas colors and other kinds of formatting... and for example, if I have a spreadsheet that I am working on in Excel, then if I copy and paste into Chrome, then all of the colors and formatting seem to show up  - but they do not show up in Safari... Neither copies the formulas... at least from my ways of attempting to do it so far.

2) One change that I have recently been pondering over is to add the dollar spot value for each month so then it would both show how much dollar value was transacted in each account for each month but then it would also end up showing what the account value is for that month too.. So it might not necessarily end up showing the spot price on that day of the month but maybe the average price that the withdrawals were made for the month

3) Surely we could talk about any ways to improve the chart.. especially if it helps to present the information better without necessarily taking away from any of the substance.. and surely there are some of the matters that are a bit discretionary (and perhaps even a bit random). .regarding how much to authorize to withdraw based on how far above or how far below the BTC spot price is from the 200-week moving average.

4) Regarding colors.  I am not exactly attached to the colors that I use, but sometimes, I purposefully use colors so that I can easily distinguish this spreadsheet from some other spreadsheet that I use.. so there might be some ways to change the colors to make them more pleasing.. but of course there are needs for readability, too.

I am probably going to send you a PM.


Based on BTC's historical returns, we could have easily gotten away with 15% and still would have had been fine. You can see from my entry-level fuck you status chart that this last year and a half have been the worst 6-month increases in the 200-week moving average of ONLY a little more than 10% for each of the 6-month increments.  So even in my newest version of the entry-level fuck you status, I tried to make the numbers slope downwardly, while attempting to account for the continuation of some aspects of the 4-year cycle merging together, and surely I might have ended up going to conservative with those estimates, but it seems better to error more on the conservative side.. but without overdoing that either.. some folks go so conservative that they completely eliminate that bitcoin is still in such a buddingly new asset class at seemingly very early stages of its adoption curve.


Yes.  I think that you are hitting upon the same kinds of Gresham's law type considerations that I was trying to describe, even though you also seem to be trying to play the market too.. .which surely there may or may not be necessities to overly complicate matters.

Because let's say that you have three or four main things.. and I am going to suggest some values for the ones that you consider to be the main things.  I am also going to add the consideration of other items that you might have  .. and even to suggest that you have already exceeded fuck-you status (let's say by 25%.. so fuck you status is $2 million and you have reached $2.5 million.. .. and of course you can adjust these numbers to what you consider to be your own entry-level fuck you status).. which may or may not end up being the case (of having to meet entry-level fuck you status) once someone starts withdrawing.. but I am going to conclude that most of your cashflow from work has dried up.. and you don't really want to pursue cashflow from work.

I have a little bit of a problem to extrapolate exactly, but I think that any of us who might stay in bitcoin for a while, then we may well end up getting to a position in which the growth of our bitcoin ends up exceeding the value of our other investments, so then questions likely develop about whether we let the bitcoin portion ride (let the winners ride) or do we reallocate the winners into the losers.. those are personal choices, and I don't have any problem putting some value into the various losers because it is good to have value in areas other than just bitcoin, especially during drawdown periods... and there can be other purposes too in regards to having options of places to spend from.  So if I presume by the time that you get to your bitcoin withdrawal stage, then you have more value in bitcoin than you do any other asset, and maybe even all of the others combined.

Here's a potentially realistic scenario that is either at or near entry-level fuck you status (of course, the numbers can be changed in accordance with what you consider to be your entry-level fuck you status)

1) some index funds  - $550k

2) pension - $550k - this pays out at a fixed rate and generally you have few options regarding the amount of pay (except maybe when you first start to withdraw they might give you the option between monthly payments and lump sum, but I am not even sure if they are able to do that) - unless you were also referring to a 401k

3)  401k -   you said zero... some people have these and some don't ..  these have options to rebalance within the fund and options regarding withdrawal rates.

4) property - .. not very liquid and not easy to count unless you just have some possible equity... or if you might be renting out part of it.

5) commodities - $25k

6) bonds - $50k

7) cash and cash equivalents - $25k

8 ) various personal property, cars, other vehicles, tools, equipment, computers/phones, electronics, furniture, appliances, collectors items, jewelry, clothes - not very liquid .. even though you could cash out of some of it.. for supplemental cash .. maybe even a few months of living

9) Bitcoin -  $1.3 million

Total:  $2.5 Million.

Just from the $2.5 million, then we can presume a passive withdrawal rate from all of these at 4% per year which would be $100k per year or  $25k per quarter or $8,333 per month.

I am not sure what advantage you are going to get from trying to fuck around with any of them in terms of trying to play the waves of the market, except if you have a set withdrawal rate for each one of them, and then based on what is happening at the time, then you might choose to spend mostly from one rather than spending from the other or not to withdraw from one (or to withdraw more or less from one or another),  and then hopefully whatever you do choose to withdraw ends up covering your expenses during the months that you are in that state of preference (prioritizing).

Like I mentioned, my chart only is about the bitcoin portion of your withdrawing, and my chart already attempts to make adjustments in regards to where the BTC spot price is in reference to the 200-week moving average in order to show you your limitations for each of the months.  I think you would be potentially getting distracted if you are attempting to deviate too much from the motives of the chart and try to figure out other macro-factors that may or may not end up affecting BTC prices... even though if the BTC price gets several multiples higher than the 200-week moving average, then you would likely need to consider cashing out months in advance like is suggested to be authorized in the chart, rather than just merely cashing out one month at a time, and so if you miss out cashing extra during those peaks and you only cash out one month at a time, then you might end up short-falling yourself in the future regarding some extra cash that you could have had gotten on hand (without even hurting your portfolio) for later down the road when the BTC price might end up going to way lower levels of withdrawal authorizations. and then once the BTC spot price falls back down then you are back to ONLY being able to cash out one month at a time.. at least in terms of the guidelines of the chart, and since it is your money, you are not even restricted by the guidelines of the chart.. you can completely abandon the chart.. and then likely be stuck in even a worse state, especially since the limitations of the chart is meant to empower you rather than to really restrict you.   Of course, if you were to be a trustee of a fund and you are mandated to be following these kinds of guidelines, then that would be another story.. but as an individual, you can do whatever you like.


I doubt that 100% in works for very many people, and from my perspective it puts you in a worse position in terms of potentially drawing red flags.. and sure it might work for guys who have figured out how to earn in bitcoin and spend in bitcoin.. but many folks, and especially if we are referring to normies, we are going to have feet in both worlds, even if we might have 70% to 90% of our wealth in bitcoin, we also might have various kinds of fiat related funds, expenses and ways of transacting.

I suppose even someone who has everything in bitcoin, they still could use some kind of a chart like mine in terms of figuring out if the amount of their BTC is being spent in a sustainable way.. and surely if they have an income in bitcoin and they are spending less than they earn, then the extra would presumably be going into some kind of a fund (or cold storage), and if the income ever dries up, then there would still some guidelines to spend in a sustainable way instead of depleting the principle..

Even with my chart, there may be some attempts to follow the guidelines in perpetuity.. but then if we suddenly die then do we have a plan for whatever is left in the fund at that time?  Do we have an administrator who can take over the fund?  Or if we have notice of our impeding death, do we either want to spend the money more rapidly or to donate the money or to just die with the BTC in our wallets in order to give back to the then remaining BTC HODLers.


I think that my chart already attempts to give guidance on that in terms of where the BTC spot price is in regards to the 200-week moving average, and whether the S&P and various other macro-factors are overinflated or underinflated, then surely that could affect your decision on the margins, but I think that part of the reason that I have been thinking about these kind of ideas for so long and have been trying to work on a chart in regards to how to think about the BTC price is in order to not have to try to factor in so many unknowables.... but just have a plan that is more based on what is known - which is how far away from the 200-week moving average is the BTC spot price, and does that authorize me to spend more or not, and if so how much.  

At some point we might consider is the 200-week moving average a good indicator (it is based on the average weekly price over 4 years), or should be be using the 300-week moving average (which would be the 6-year weekly average) in order to attempt to be more long term in the way that we manage our spending within our bitcoin holdings.


Well my entry-level fuck you status chart should help to give you some ideas regarding how many BTC that you feel that you need by what year, and if you ONLY have 8 BTC, but you want to get to the default entry-level fuck you status of 10 BTC within 10 years, then maybe you still need to be buying or earning around $300 to $400 per week in bitcoin in order to increase your stash by more 2 BTC in 10 years... and according to my entry-level fuck you status chart, 10 BTC would be enough to be at entry-level fuck you status by early 2034... and of course, until your stash of coins crosses over into entry level fuck you status, you are not necessarily going to know that the 200-week moving average will continue to go up as projected.. so if you end up overly preparing and you end up getting 10 BTC by 2026 and then 12 BTC by 2030  and then 13 BTC by 2032.. and then maybe somewhere along the preparations the lines will cross in which you might start to feel that you have either accumulated enough BTC or maybe even that you accumulated more than enough.. or on the other hand, if your accumulation does not end up going as well, then 8 BTC might still end up being enough to enter into entry-level fuck you status by 2035.  We kind of have to be prepared to do our best and hope that our preparations continue to pay off, and even if you have ONLY been in BTC as long as your forum registration date, then you have not quite been in a full cycle, and maybe you do need another full cycle of BTC accumulation before you start to get more tangibly closer to a position in which you might end up changing away from an accumulation status.


Of course, this chart is meant to be something that supplements my other investment ideas in regards to getting your whole portfolio up to a size in which you can reference the whole thing and then start some kind of a sustainable withdrawal (to the extent that you might feel that you are out of the investing and accumulating stage), or of course, you could just divide part of your BTC investment portfolio into a spendable amount if you would rather allow your other portion to continue to grow.. or just stay in cold storage.

I cannot recall if you ever said where you are at in your bitcoin accumulation journey and if you feel that you are getting close to being done with accumulation? and moving into maintenance and perhaps some variation of liquidation. .which this could help with those kinds of ideas/practices.


I frequently come across posts from members who seem to not really know how to attempt to elegantly spend from their bitcoin profits, and so it seems that many times, there are difficulties in understand how to reach a goal of accumulating a certain number of bitcoins and then to not just cash out everything all at once and then end up depleting the principle.. which surely can seem tempting if there is no alternative plan regarding how to proceed in such a way that is meant to still allow cashing out in a forever kind of way and to try to maintain the value of the principle.. and perhaps if the principle keeps growing, then the withdrawal rate might also be able to be increased..  

As I mentioned in my response to Poker Player, I believe that so far in bitcoin's history even a 15% withdrawal rate could have had been maintained, as long as the withdrawal rate is based on the 200-week moving average value of the holdings.. but a lot of times people also use the spot price, so they would be all over the place in terms of whether they might be overly depleting the principle.. so then one of the problems in the last 1.5 years, is that each of those 6 months the 200-week moving average only grew by 10% for each of the 6 week periods, yet since the 200-week moving average had tended to grown much faster than that, even 15% would still likely average out as sustainable.. so I might at some point be willing to move my 4% up to a higher level.. maybe even 8% or higher, but I am nervous to do that for now...even though maybe it is also problematic if the principle keeps growing way faster than it is being spent, then at some point there will be some justification to move it up to a higher rate.. and some folks already have enough information that they would be more than willing to raise it to something like 12% and then adjust it to a lower rate at a later date, if needed... so there still is quite a bit of flexibility in terms of what is sustainable and perpetual.. especially in such a buddingly new asset class like bitcoin..

Very nice post/thread, one of the missed stone in this road is that, when and how to cashout some btc to anything,whether it's to live or for an emergency or a travel ,etc.

The same happens with every portfolio of people when they start to think to live from their investments, is not so easy and sustainable without a lot of discipline and a ton of knowledge.

Hi JayJuanGee. This topic is a good idea of your investment ideas. I have read it to the end. But I will read it again on different days.
Today is the fourth day that I have returned to this thread to read your thoughts on attracting and maintaining a portfolio and wanted to convey this as a workplan sheet which is very useful if bookmark.
Thank You.

It seems like a safe assumption at 4%, which would be the classic rule because at least in the next few cycles it is normal for Bitcoin to continue to give a much higher return than that, although I for one would expect the returns in percentage terms to gradually decrease as the cycles progress.


Well, in my case, and I think I am by far not the only one, Bitcoin is part of my wealth building plan which also has other assets, but I think it is better to focus here on sustainable ways of withdrawing Bitcoin as I am sure that in the forum there is too much heterogeneity in terms of wealth building and having this plan one can get an idea and adapt it to his personal situation.

For example, let's suppose that in a market downturn, apart from Bitcoin we also have money in an S&P 500 index fund or pension plan that we can withdraw. Surely we will be more interested in withdrawing from the S&P 500 because it is normal that when the market rises again the Bitcoin will give us more returns than the S&P. Then in a bullish market we may be more interested in withdrawing from the Bitcoin portfolio to diversify the risk and not have too high a percentage of our net worth concentrated in Bitcoin. I know that there are people in the forum who have 100% in Bitcoin or a very important part of their net worth but in my case I prefer to play safer even at the cost of sacrificing a little profitability.

Here I am only considering the case in which both Bitcoin and the S&P rise and fall in unison, but if this does not happen, and we have a fall in the S&P and the portfolio in Bitcoin rises in price, or conversely, the decision of where to withdraw it's clear.

I too, like Fillippone, am more focused on increasing my stash, or rather my global wealth, but I am interested in the topic as information for the future and because I am interested in financial strategies in general

In case you find it easy to share:



I did my best to replicate your sheet's genuinely horrible colour scheme.
I had some ideas to improve the sheet, but I abstained from modifying cells or "workflow" of the sheets.

Please let me know if I missed something.

Thanks. That seems to be exactly a correct way of thinking about the matter.  None of us should be getting too distracted by various BTC selling techniques and/or sustainable withdrawal of our BTC unless we have reached a point in which we are able to dedicate a certain amount of our stash to this (whether it is all or a portion); however, if we were to be just sustainably withdrawing BTC for personal reasons (whether needs or wants), then we may well end up feeling like we are spinning our wheels because we are buying with hand and selling with the other, when maybe our overall goal is buying, so then we would wonder why are we even selling in the first place

- unless maybe we were in a situation in which we were to create a separate fund, trust or business that we might be willing to inject a certain amount of BTC into that (entity) and the amount of BTC injected would be meaningful to the cause or whatever we might be wanting to achieve by providing such a sustainable income to such fund, trust or business.

There were a few times, in the context of making this sheet, and then playing around with it in Google spreadsheets that I was considering contacting you to figure out if there might be a better way of presenting the information, but then I was starting to consider that I would NOT even be able to explain it to you very well until I put it into a context of a post, and that is why I ended up using talk.img instead of google spreadsheet - and surely since I am kind of an open source kind of believer, I am not really opposed to sharing the various formulas - even though surely anyone who really studies the image should be able to reverse engineer in order to get to my various formulas... especially since I have already attempted to explain them or to list them in the chart.. .so in the end, I am not sure how much extra value would come from making sure the formulas are in a Google spreadsheet - and when I copy and paste from Excel to Google Spreadsheet the formulas do not paste into Google Spreadsheets.

Another thing was when I was finalizing this chart, I realized that I needed to update my entry-fuck you status chart, and you seemed to have noticed that post because you merited that update.  But one of the things from using the template that you had provided to me, I noticed that depending on how much data that had on the page, there seems to be a limit in how large I can have my charts, because I was actually going to go to 2157, even though the forum page seemed to only allow me to go up to 2078.. otherwise I would get a BBcode error.

In the end, I am not sure how much consulting you would be willing to do in regards to these matters, but we could maybe take it to PM, if there might be something that you might see in terms of presentation.. and surely, I understand that going all the way to 2078 seems a bit much for the entry-level fuck you status chart, because another problem potentially comes if I want to update the 200-week moving average in that chart every 6 months to the extent that the actual 200-week moving average might deviate from my projected 200-week moving average, and if it ONLY deviates a little then probably no BIG deal, I probably don't need to update the chart, but if it deviates a lot (which was around 10% for this time around), then I would probably have to make sure that the whole future is updated based on the correct starting values... and another thing is that I think that I made the numbers overly conservative, .. but let's see how it plays out.. I am a bit embarrassed that I had already updated my 200-week moving average projections more conservatively earlier in the year (to make my slope gradually curve to be less and less rather than being too much of a straight-line), and I still ended up overshooting by 10% for a mere 6-month period.

This thread is food for thought.
It's nice to have it here, but I will try not to interact with it too much.
It's nice to see someone thinking about cashing out in a sensible way, but for the moment, I am too focused on increasing my stash, not to deplete it.
I will read it in the distant future, I hope. I reckon this is a luxury I do hope to maintain.

There surely are a variety of ways to attempt to divide your BTC stack up that will allow you to potentially aspire to keep building it, but at the same time potentially have some amounts that you are able to spend, especially if your overall stash is in sufficient profits - and surely it is up to you to decide how much you believe would be sufficient profits, whether that is 2x, 5x, 10x, 20x or some other amount that you deem to be the threshold that thereby allows you to start to spend from that portion of your BTC stash.

I can recall that you and I have had some back and forths before, but I cannot remember much about your particulars in order to try to come up with an example that might be somewhat fitting for what could be your situation.. and then also to try to make it relatable.. so if we go by your forum registration date, and your admission that you made several mistakes along the way and likely ONLY became more serious about stacking bitcoin in 2019, then we do not necessarily have a lot of time to work with, and one of the bigger advantages of bitcoin (or any investment) is building it over time, but also getting some of the compounding effects, and surely 2013 and 2017 were a bit better in term of their compounding effects as compared with 2021, even though 2021 was nothing really to sneeze at either.

Even someone with 21 BTC right now merely has $609k in realistic "bottom" value if we use the 200-week moving average (of $29k) as the measure, even though BTC spot price is around $785k worth of value ($37,300). 

In recent times, I like to use $2 million as the fuck you status entry level, even though I know that people can get by with a lot less based on their own present and future expected costs of living... and part of the rationale for that is that I was using $1million from 2013 to 2020, but things in the world seemed to have gone so crazy in 2020 that it no longer made sense to potentially incrementally boost up the entry-level fuck you status, and a doubling seemed reasonable, prudent and potentially broadly applicable. Another thing about entry-level fuck you status is that it should be around 20 to 30x of your annual income (or your annual expected expenses) in order to justify entering into a 4% perpetual withdrawal rate.

Let's say that your goal is to get to 21 BTC, but you are not sure how long that will take to get there because maybe you have barely reached 12 BTC even during times that BTC prices were way cheaper relative to current BTC prices, and so if there are quite a few expectations that the BTC prices are going to continue to rise, you want to attempt to be realistic with yourself about how many BTC you need and by when do you need them in order to reach entry-level fuck you status, whether you fit within the default entry-level fuck you status as I describe or if you have your own version of it.  But even my recently revised (and continuing to get more and more conservative in its predictions) chart show that by early 2029, 21 BTC will cross into entry-level fuck you status, and surely the amount of BTC that you need for entry-level fuck you status goes down if you are ready, willing and able to wait longer prior to starting to employ any of your withdrawal system... even 12 BTC would qualify for entry-level fuck you status by mid-to-late 2032.

So if you are really tempted to enter into some kind of a withdrawal system, but you are still in the process of growing your BTC stash, you might feel that you are spinning your wheels becaue you are selling with one portion of your stash and buying with another portion, and perhaps you would have just been better off to just continue to buy, especially if the net goal is to try to increase your BTC stash, and in my hypothetical of you, even if you might not be able to reach 21 BTC by early 2029, you are already at 12 BTC currently, and you can already see from the chart that there are pretty good odds that 12 BTC will be enough for late 2032, and so any additional BTC that you are able to stack between now and then is likely going to bring down the year that you end up entering into entry-level fuck you status. 

Surely there are other ways to frame goals, but I was trying to figure out a way to show how there could be trade-offs in terms of beginning to cash out too early, but if you have some kind of thing that you want to fund and you could create a separate budget for that, maybe using 1/2 of your BTC stash, such as 6 BTC, but that surely could cause you to feel that you are either spinning your wheels and it even if your BTC stash is not building as fast, it may well end up not building as fast, and surely a kind of hidden presumption that seems to be underlying your desires to cash out some BTC when the prices are going up is because not only do you want to be able to benefit from the fruits of your BTC accumulation, but you may also be wanting to use some of those proceeds to buy BTC back at a lower price.. which is understandable because we know that BTC prices do not go up in a straight line and there can be some advantages to incremental cashing out as compared with selling large lump sums of BTC and maybe ending up over-doing the amount sold.


Brings some extra complications, but yes most local currencies continue to lose against the dollar too.. so you have some extra balancing that you have to consider since you probably need to make sure that you maintain a certain amount of value in your local currency in order to be able to pay expenses and even possible emergencies that might ONLY be payable in your local currency.. but then, surely there can be questions about how many dollars to hold (and then if they are stable coins, how much extra risk might be going on with which stable coin you choose to keep your value), so it does seem practical that at minimum you would be ongoingly making sure that you have whatever new investments that you make into BTC (or even what you cash out) to be measured in terms of the other places that you are holding value, namely in dollars and in your local currency.  I think that you need to be careful about overdoing your BTC allotment in terms of holding short term expenses in BTC, but surely if you are not a complete beginner than at least you have had 4-7 years to have had been building your wealth. .if we go by your 2016 forum registration date and the 2019 year you said that you became more serious about focusing on BTC as your preferred investment.