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Topic: JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance) - page 3. (Read 951 times)

sr. member
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Very nice post/thread, one of the missed stone in this road is that, when and how to cashout some btc to anything,whether it's to live or for an emergency or a travel ,etc.

The same happens with every portfolio of people when they start to think to live from their investments, is not so easy and sustainable without a lot of discipline and a ton of knowledge.



hero member
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Hi JayJuanGee. This topic is a good idea of your investment ideas. I have read it to the end. But I will read it again on different days.
Today is the fourth day that I have returned to this thread to read your thoughts on attracting and maintaining a portfolio and wanted to convey this as a workplan sheet which is very useful if bookmark.
Thank You.
legendary
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I understand that there is quite a bit of data in the charts and some of the ideas regarding the monthly spending limitations of the accounts are somewhat discretionary, but starting out by sticking with standard 4% per year withdrawal rates and even presume a kind of perpetual ability to withdraw BTC under this kind of system with a kind of underlying assumption that BTC prices (especially the 200-week moving average) will continue to go up at least 4% per year on average, so even if there are some down, years the account is not materially getting depleted in terms of its dollar values (or whatever other utility we might be measuring our cost of living).  

It seems like a safe assumption at 4%, which would be the classic rule because at least in the next few cycles it is normal for Bitcoin to continue to give a much higher return than that, although I for one would expect the returns in percentage terms to gradually decrease as the cycles progress.

I am focused on BTC in this example, but of course, there could be various other assets that comprise someone's investment portfolio and maybe even cashflow, so surely I am not against any kinds of Gresham Law types of considerations in which there would likely be spending from other assets prior to spending from BTC, so if the accounts are not spent to the max of their limits, then whatever BTC remains would just continue to sit in the accounts with probably a need to consider whether to maximize withdrawal or to sometimes even hold back on withdrawal or to maximize withdrawal which is also partially already guided by the parameters and assumptions contained in the chart/table.

Well, in my case, and I think I am by far not the only one, Bitcoin is part of my wealth building plan which also has other assets, but I think it is better to focus here on sustainable ways of withdrawing Bitcoin as I am sure that in the forum there is too much heterogeneity in terms of wealth building and having this plan one can get an idea and adapt it to his personal situation.

For example, let's suppose that in a market downturn, apart from Bitcoin we also have money in an S&P 500 index fund or pension plan that we can withdraw. Surely we will be more interested in withdrawing from the S&P 500 because it is normal that when the market rises again the Bitcoin will give us more returns than the S&P. Then in a bullish market we may be more interested in withdrawing from the Bitcoin portfolio to diversify the risk and not have too high a percentage of our net worth concentrated in Bitcoin. I know that there are people in the forum who have 100% in Bitcoin or a very important part of their net worth but in my case I prefer to play safer even at the cost of sacrificing a little profitability.

Here I am only considering the case in which both Bitcoin and the S&P rise and fall in unison, but if this does not happen, and we have a fall in the S&P and the portfolio in Bitcoin rises in price, or conversely, the decision of where to withdraw it's clear.

I too, like Fillippone, am more focused on increasing my stash, or rather my global wealth, but I am interested in the topic as information for the future and because I am interested in financial strategies in general
legendary
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In case you find it easy to share:



I did my best to replicate your sheet's genuinely horrible colour scheme.
I had some ideas to improve the sheet, but I abstained from modifying cells or "workflow" of the sheets.

Please let me know if I missed something.

legendary
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
This thread is food for thought.
It's nice to have it here, but I will try not to interact with it too much.
It's nice to see someone thinking about cashing out in a sensible way, but for the moment, I am too focused on increasing my stash, not to deplete it.
I will read it in the distant future, I hope. I reckon this is a luxury I do hope to maintain.

Thanks. That seems to be exactly a correct way of thinking about the matter.  None of us should be getting too distracted by various BTC selling techniques and/or sustainable withdrawal of our BTC unless we have reached a point in which we are able to dedicate a certain amount of our stash to this (whether it is all or a portion); however, if we were to be just sustainably withdrawing BTC for personal reasons (whether needs or wants), then we may well end up feeling like we are spinning our wheels because we are buying with hand and selling with the other, when maybe our overall goal is buying, so then we would wonder why are we even selling in the first place

- unless maybe we were in a situation in which we were to create a separate fund, trust or business that we might be willing to inject a certain amount of BTC into that (entity) and the amount of BTC injected would be meaningful to the cause or whatever we might be wanting to achieve by providing such a sustainable income to such fund, trust or business.

There were a few times, in the context of making this sheet, and then playing around with it in Google spreadsheets that I was considering contacting you to figure out if there might be a better way of presenting the information, but then I was starting to consider that I would NOT even be able to explain it to you very well until I put it into a context of a post, and that is why I ended up using talk.img instead of google spreadsheet - and surely since I am kind of an open source kind of believer, I am not really opposed to sharing the various formulas - even though surely anyone who really studies the image should be able to reverse engineer in order to get to my various formulas... especially since I have already attempted to explain them or to list them in the chart.. .so in the end, I am not sure how much extra value would come from making sure the formulas are in a Google spreadsheet - and when I copy and paste from Excel to Google Spreadsheet the formulas do not paste into Google Spreadsheets.

Another thing was when I was finalizing this chart, I realized that I needed to update my entry-fuck you status chart, and you seemed to have noticed that post because you merited that update.  But one of the things from using the template that you had provided to me, I noticed that depending on how much data that had on the page, there seems to be a limit in how large I can have my charts, because I was actually going to go to 2157, even though the forum page seemed to only allow me to go up to 2078.. otherwise I would get a BBcode error.

In the end, I am not sure how much consulting you would be willing to do in regards to these matters, but we could maybe take it to PM, if there might be something that you might see in terms of presentation.. and surely, I understand that going all the way to 2078 seems a bit much for the entry-level fuck you status chart, because another problem potentially comes if I want to update the 200-week moving average in that chart every 6 months to the extent that the actual 200-week moving average might deviate from my projected 200-week moving average, and if it ONLY deviates a little then probably no BIG deal, I probably don't need to update the chart, but if it deviates a lot (which was around 10% for this time around), then I would probably have to make sure that the whole future is updated based on the correct starting values... and another thing is that I think that I made the numbers overly conservative, .. but let's see how it plays out.. I am a bit embarrassed that I had already updated my 200-week moving average projections more conservatively earlier in the year (to make my slope gradually curve to be less and less rather than being too much of a straight-line), and I still ended up overshooting by 10% for a mere 6-month period.
legendary
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This thread is food for thought.
It's nice to have it here, but I will try not to interact with it too much.
It's nice to see someone thinking about cashing out in a sensible way, but for the moment, I am too focused on increasing my stash, not to deplete it.
I will read it in the distant future, I hope. I reckon this is a luxury I do hope to maintain.
legendary
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Thank you for the meaningful reply, I find that there are very few careful calculations done, thereby most "strategies" and discussions don't have the data to back them up.

The key summary for me is proof of what I've always believed. That an accumulation strategy that lets you reap continuous benefits is still much more beneficial than pure stacking. I always see my holding as something that must not allow "normal" spending as detrimental even psychologiclly (especially when missing out the highs).

There surely are a variety of ways to attempt to divide your BTC stack up that will allow you to potentially aspire to keep building it, but at the same time potentially have some amounts that you are able to spend, especially if your overall stash is in sufficient profits - and surely it is up to you to decide how much you believe would be sufficient profits, whether that is 2x, 5x, 10x, 20x or some other amount that you deem to be the threshold that thereby allows you to start to spend from that portion of your BTC stash.

I can recall that you and I have had some back and forths before, but I cannot remember much about your particulars in order to try to come up with an example that might be somewhat fitting for what could be your situation.. and then also to try to make it relatable.. so if we go by your forum registration date, and your admission that you made several mistakes along the way and likely ONLY became more serious about stacking bitcoin in 2019, then we do not necessarily have a lot of time to work with, and one of the bigger advantages of bitcoin (or any investment) is building it over time, but also getting some of the compounding effects, and surely 2013 and 2017 were a bit better in term of their compounding effects as compared with 2021, even though 2021 was nothing really to sneeze at either.

Even someone with 21 BTC right now merely has $609k in realistic "bottom" value if we use the 200-week moving average (of $29k) as the measure, even though BTC spot price is around $785k worth of value ($37,300). 

In recent times, I like to use $2 million as the fuck you status entry level, even though I know that people can get by with a lot less based on their own present and future expected costs of living... and part of the rationale for that is that I was using $1million from 2013 to 2020, but things in the world seemed to have gone so crazy in 2020 that it no longer made sense to potentially incrementally boost up the entry-level fuck you status, and a doubling seemed reasonable, prudent and potentially broadly applicable. Another thing about entry-level fuck you status is that it should be around 20 to 30x of your annual income (or your annual expected expenses) in order to justify entering into a 4% perpetual withdrawal rate.

Let's say that your goal is to get to 21 BTC, but you are not sure how long that will take to get there because maybe you have barely reached 12 BTC even during times that BTC prices were way cheaper relative to current BTC prices, and so if there are quite a few expectations that the BTC prices are going to continue to rise, you want to attempt to be realistic with yourself about how many BTC you need and by when do you need them in order to reach entry-level fuck you status, whether you fit within the default entry-level fuck you status as I describe or if you have your own version of it.  But even my recently revised (and continuing to get more and more conservative in its predictions) chart show that by early 2029, 21 BTC will cross into entry-level fuck you status, and surely the amount of BTC that you need for entry-level fuck you status goes down if you are ready, willing and able to wait longer prior to starting to employ any of your withdrawal system... even 12 BTC would qualify for entry-level fuck you status by mid-to-late 2032.

So if you are really tempted to enter into some kind of a withdrawal system, but you are still in the process of growing your BTC stash, you might feel that you are spinning your wheels becaue you are selling with one portion of your stash and buying with another portion, and perhaps you would have just been better off to just continue to buy, especially if the net goal is to try to increase your BTC stash, and in my hypothetical of you, even if you might not be able to reach 21 BTC by early 2029, you are already at 12 BTC currently, and you can already see from the chart that there are pretty good odds that 12 BTC will be enough for late 2032, and so any additional BTC that you are able to stack between now and then is likely going to bring down the year that you end up entering into entry-level fuck you status. 

Surely there are other ways to frame goals, but I was trying to figure out a way to show how there could be trade-offs in terms of beginning to cash out too early, but if you have some kind of thing that you want to fund and you could create a separate budget for that, maybe using 1/2 of your BTC stash, such as 6 BTC, but that surely could cause you to feel that you are either spinning your wheels and it even if your BTC stash is not building as fast, it may well end up not building as fast, and surely a kind of hidden presumption that seems to be underlying your desires to cash out some BTC when the prices are going up is because not only do you want to be able to benefit from the fruits of your BTC accumulation, but you may also be wanting to use some of those proceeds to buy BTC back at a lower price.. which is understandable because we know that BTC prices do not go up in a straight line and there can be some advantages to incremental cashing out as compared with selling large lump sums of BTC and maybe ending up over-doing the amount sold.

Actually, I am not sure if I am going to change the OP, but I am thinking that I need to come up with another chart that shows the dollar values for each of the months, and so maybe I can just take an estimated average BTC price for that particular month... but that seems to be something that I could probably do in order to attempt to make the monthly withdrawal amounts more relatable to be able to see both the BTC value and the then dollar value..
<>

Even if your  account balance were to be half as much ($1,250 instead of $2,500), it still might be an o.k. withdrawal rate if it is merely supplementing other kinds of income.
Yep, and for me, I need to even add my local currency price to my own data if I ever want to do so. Because USD wise, withdrawals already show a supplementary figure that encourages holding over long term, but because since 2018 when I started seriously DCA, dollar vs my currency is also breaking ATHs.

Just by holding BTC I not only avoided my local inflation but overcame it (a double benefit of BTC/USD value!

Brings some extra complications, but yes most local currencies continue to lose against the dollar too.. so you have some extra balancing that you have to consider since you probably need to make sure that you maintain a certain amount of value in your local currency in order to be able to pay expenses and even possible emergencies that might ONLY be payable in your local currency.. but then, surely there can be questions about how many dollars to hold (and then if they are stable coins, how much extra risk might be going on with which stable coin you choose to keep your value), so it does seem practical that at minimum you would be ongoingly making sure that you have whatever new investments that you make into BTC (or even what you cash out) to be measured in terms of the other places that you are holding value, namely in dollars and in your local currency.  I think that you need to be careful about overdoing your BTC allotment in terms of holding short term expenses in BTC, but surely if you are not a complete beginner than at least you have had 4-7 years to have had been building your wealth. .if we go by your 2016 forum registration date and the 2019 year you said that you became more serious about focusing on BTC as your preferred investment.
legendary
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Thank you for the meaningful reply, I find that there are very few careful calculations done, thereby most "strategies" and discussions don't have the data to back them up.

The key summary for me is proof of what I've always believed. That an accumulation strategy that lets you reap continuous benefits is still much more beneficial than pure stacking. I always see my holding as something that must not allow "normal" spending as detrimental even psychologiclly (especially when missing out the highs).

Actually, I am not sure if I am going to change the OP, but I am thinking that I need to come up with another chart that shows the dollar values for each of the months, and so maybe I can just take an estimated average BTC price for that particular month... but that seems to be something that I could probably do in order to attempt to make the monthly withdrawal amounts more relatable to be able to see both the BTC value and the then dollar value..
<>

Even if your  account balance were to be half as much ($1,250 instead of $2,500), it still might be an o.k. withdrawal rate if it is merely supplementing other kinds of income.

Yep, and for me, I need to even add my local currency price to my own data if I ever want to do so. Because USD wise, withdrawals already show a supplementary figure that encourages holding over long term, but because since 2018 when I started seriously DCA, dollar vs my currency is also breaking ATHs.

Just by holding BTC I not only avoided my local inflation but overcame it (a double benefit of BTC/USD value!
legendary
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Thank you for this thread, I'm ashamed that I never bothered to make this kind of calculation. I practice DCA too but I don't have the discipline to do 2 things. First, to make actual dates and calculations. Secondly, not to touch it.


Of course, the ideas underlying this particular chart do not have very much at all to do with DCA and/or the various ways that BTC HODLers may end up accumulating their bitcoin, and even though we could perform these same kinds of budget limits within whatever amount of BTC that we had accumulated and were able to put into the overall account value, it still might not be very practical to start to engage in these kinds of sustainable withdrawals until the size of the account have built up to an amount in which the withdrawals are meaningful.

Actually, I am not sure if I am going to change the OP, but I am thinking that I need to come up with another chart that shows the dollar values for each of the months, and so maybe I can just take an estimated average BTC price for that particular month... but that seems to be something that I could probably do in order to attempt to make the monthly withdrawal amounts more relatable to be able to see both the BTC value and the then dollar value..

Essentially, it takes efforts to continue to hold and to aim for a certain quantity of BTC in order to attempt to consider the withdrawal amounts as meaningful.  

For example in the current chart, we see that as long as the BTC price is above $26,250 (M,3) then the monthly amount that can be spent is nearly $2,500 (M,11) (M,13) and also .06860513 (M,18) (M,20).  

Even if your  account balance were to be half as much ($1,250 instead of $2,500), it still might be an o.k. withdrawal rate if it is merely supplementing other kinds of income.

I do expect that the withdrawal rate (of 4%)(L,23) is way more than sustainable, and probably we could have a higher withdrawal rate - however, maintaining the lower withdrawal rate right now likely allows for more growth of the value and a kind of deferred gratification - even though it is not guaranteed to continue to go up greater than 4% per year.. even though historically we have not really every had yearly rates that have been less than 20%.  You can see those actual rates that the 200-week moving average had gone up in the 4th column of my fuck-you status chart (each of the percentages therein represents 6 months).

So over the past years especially from 2019, I only know the growth in coins, because I add DCA to my personal wallet and see it grow.


I have come to conclude that the power of bitcoin's compounding surely comes from experiencing several doublings of the value of the BTC in the account, and so sometimes we get caught upon periods in which we might wonder about the rate of growth, but it could take a couple of full cycles to really experience bitcoin's compounding effects, and since bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting weaker, it seems better to just allow it to continue to compound, and to exercise some self-restraints in the withdrawal rates - which also would include withdrawing (in accordance with Gresham's law practices) from other sources (money of less value) prior to withdrawing from bitcoin.
 
BUT I take out sometimes to fund small habits + expenses, to try to return it to origiinal levels asap.


I have historically done quite a bit of spend and replace in order to keep the BTC at the original levels and maybe even to take the opportunity of the spend and replace to replace with more BTC than I had spent.. which surely is important during the BTC portfolio building years.. but then in my above chart and the topic of this thread would be that you already have reached your goals, so no need to spend and replace from this one as long as you have reached your goals and you are spending within the limits..even though I could also see that someone might be spending monthly from his/her 21 bitcoin, and then all of a sudden if the BTC price dropped by 30% to 50% there might be some desires to buy more BTC and to put it into a fund like this in order to increase the balance (I probably should include a column for adding value to the accounts, too).  
 
I think therefore there is an idea of "sustainable withdrawal" like this to ensure you keep enjoying the benefits while still maintaining a portfolio.


It should be able to go on forever without losing value if the average of the rate of growth is higher than the withdrawal rate... even if there might be some years in which BTC might not perform as well, yet so far the 200-week moving average has not gone down, even though it is not out of the question that the 200-week moving average might not continue to go up.. but we can cross that bridge if we get there.
 
The thing is the time to watch the 200-week trend line, I guess with automated indicator easier but I know I would fail at this "discipline".

Yep.. if you want to try to be accurate, then every month or whenever you might be considering how much you are able to spend within your monthly budget limit, the 200-week moving average should be plugged into K,3.   I think that anyone can learn to exercise discipline in these regards, even though surely so many folks want to live off of the principle and the interest rather than just the interest, and so if you can limit your budget to living off of the interest only, then that would be a good thing - even though I can see why you might be tempted to go "over -budget" and then you end up depleting your principle and no longer following a sustainable system, even if it might still end up working out for you.
legendary
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Thank you for this thread, I'm ashamed that I never bothered to make this kind of calculation. I practice DCA too but I don't have the discipline to do 2 things. First, to make actual dates and calculations. Secondly, not to touch it.

So over the past years especially from 2019, I only know the growth in coins, because I add DCA to my personal wallet and see it grow.

BUT I take out sometimes to fund small habits + expenses, to try to return it to origiinal levels asap. I think therefore there is an idea of "sustainable withdrawal" like this to ensure you keep enjoying the benefits while still maintaining a portfolio.

The thing is the time to watch the 200-week trend line, I guess with automated indicator easier but I know I would fail at this "discipline".
legendary
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Any thoughts or feedback would be appreciated, or even some real life examples of trying to figure out these kinds of balances.  I am focused on BTC in this example, but of course, there could be various other assets that comprise someone's investment portfolio and maybe even cashflow, so surely I am not against any kinds of Gresham Law types of considerations in which there would likely be spending from other assets prior to spending from BTC, so if the accounts are not spent to the max of their limits, then whatever BTC remains would just continue to sit in the accounts with probably a need to consider whether to maximize withdrawal or to sometimes even hold back on withdrawal or to maximize withdrawal which is also partially already guided by the parameters and assumptions contained in the chart/table.
Indeed I've been following up with some of your threads that talked about having something like this coming up and i must commend you well for taking your time in making the precise breakdown on making withdrawals and how we can also have an sustainable investment, you've also talked alot about bitcoin holding, DCA and many other relevant aspects relatively having similarities with this.

It's something interesting to make an investment and it's another thing to have that tenacity to wait patiently without making withdrawal of our investment due to some other reasons beyond the ordinary, if we are making an investment, then we should know that it's something that we should do out of the passion for holding it over a long period of time, because we cannot release and make withdrawals when it is not yet time to do so but there are other needs that are extremely pushing us for making withdrawals, we should plan well right before we start.

I had been thinking about these kinds of budgeting ideas and even the ideas of having a kind of guided passive income from a stack of BTC for the last year and a half or so, and I had some posts with other forum members around the May 2022 and June 2022 major BTC price drops, in which I was talking about the possibility of funding a developer with a couple of bitcoin funds and maybe even using 21 BTC as the amount with each of the funds.  One possibility could be that one of the funds would be to fund a developer (or perhaps more than one developer as the fund's value might grow from BTC's probable future appreciation) and the second fund might be to pay for the administration costs.

Of course, there are a variety of reasons that someone might create a fund, and might even do so in order to fund their own expenses... to establish budgeting limits regarding how much to be able to cash out on a monthly basis.

You have a great plan for your Bitcoin investment and thanks for sharing a sheet of your investment too.

I can contribute two websites for Dollar Cost Averaging that is certainly good for investment especially investment in Bitcoin.
https://dcabtc.com/
https://costavg.com/ . I introduced it in Dollar Cost Averaging with costavg.com include exchange fee.

DCA is usable for taking profit and it is guided in (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan.

The chart is not about establishing an investment position, and it is also not about my particular investment, since they are hypothetical accounts, but instead about ways to consider spending within budget limits that refer to the balance of the account, the BTC price position in reverence to the 200-week moving average and the rate of withdrawal (in this case I use 4% per year).   

In regards to the accumulation of BTC and other related ideas, I have more extensive investment ideas in my other related thread that I mentioned at the beginning of the post.

I had been considering adding these ideas of Sustainable withdrawal and/or BTC portfolio maintenance to my BTC Investment ideas thread, but the various Opening posts in that thread were starting to get overly cluttered and potentially confusing.

Regarding your links, I frequently have cite dcabtc.com and also the SSS thread... but I had not previously seen the costavg.com website or your thread about it, so in the coming days, I will take a look at your thread that you referenced.
full member
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You have a great plan for your Bitcoin investment and thanks for sharing a sheet of your investment too.

I can contribute two websites for Dollar Cost Averaging that is certainly good for investment especially investment in Bitcoin.
https://dcabtc.com/
https://costavg.com/ . I introduced it in Dollar Cost Averaging with costavg.com include exchange fee.

DCA is usable for taking profit and it is guided in (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan.
sr. member
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Any thoughts or feedback would be appreciated, or even some real life examples of trying to figure out these kinds of balances.  I am focused on BTC in this example, but of course, there could be various other assets that comprise someone's investment portfolio and maybe even cashflow, so surely I am not against any kinds of Gresham Law types of considerations in which there would likely be spending from other assets prior to spending from BTC, so if the accounts are not spent to the max of their limits, then whatever BTC remains would just continue to sit in the accounts with probably a need to consider whether to maximize withdrawal or to sometimes even hold back on withdrawal or to maximize withdrawal which is also partially already guided by the parameters and assumptions contained in the chart/table.

Indeed I've been following up with some of your threads that talked about having something like this coming up and i must commend you well for taking your time in making the precise breakdown on making withdrawals and how we can also have an sustainable investment, you've also talked alot about bitcoin holding, DCA and many other relevant aspects relatively having similarities with this.

It's something interesting to make an investment and it's another thing to have that tenacity to wait patiently without making withdrawal of our investment due to some other reasons beyond the ordinary, if we are making an investment, then we should know that it's something that we should do out of the passion for holding it over a long period of time, because we cannot release and make withdrawals when it is not yet time to do so but there are other needs that are extremely pushing us for making withdrawals, we should plan well right before we start.
legendary
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Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined
legendary
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
legendary
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Opening Post 2:  Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account

Ideas of sustainable withdrawal that attempts to measure monthly budget limits based BTC spot price relative to the 200-week moving average

There has been a while that I have been talking about a chart/table that I had been working on that attempts to guide monthly budgets within the parameters of the 200-week moving average.  Here's an example with two hypothetical accounts.. Account 1 and Account 2.**



**An amended and improved version of the above chart eliminates the second Account, and shows the ongoing BTC Spot Price and the 200-week moving Average in order to show how they compare with one another.

From the above chart, you should be able to see that if there are two hypothetical accounts, and each of the accounts started out with 21 BTC in September 2022, and they have been experiencing withdrawals on a monthly basis.  The amount withdrawn each month should be less than the limits of their monthly withdrawal limits based on the various formulas therein that also peg to the 200-week moving average and also the limits are based on then balance in the account.

We can see that the actual 200-week moving average gets put into the spreadsheet in order to show the limits for the upcoming month.  In this case, I have projected the 200-week moving average to be $29,041 (K,3) within the first day or so of December 2023.  You can see the actual here.

 The spreadsheet autofills the various threshold BTC spot prices in row 3 in accordance with what percentage the BTC spot price is above or below the then 200-week moving average, as reflected in row 2.  

For example, to show the lowest Spot price on the chart (H,3 = $18,850), as long as the BTC price is above $18,850 but less than $20,300 (I, 3) (that is more than 30% below the 200-week moving average, but less than 35% below the 200-week moving average), then there is an authorization to ONLY spend 40% (H, 1 = 0.4) of the 200-week moving average monthly rate which based on the 4% per year, 1% per quarter or 0.33% per month which is also autofill calculated into the sheet (based on the 4% amount in L,3). So the monthly budget limit for that person would be 0.02744205 BTC (H, 20) (or $517.28 in H, 13).

In my model, the BTC spot price has to be 25% (M, 2) higher than the 200-week moving average (which is estimated to be more than $36,250 (M,3) at the beginning of December) before account 1 would be authorized to withdraw the full (M,1) 0.33% per month allocation (as the percentage that is authorized is depicted in row 1), so that would be authorized to spend up to 0.06860513 BTC (M,18 and M,20) for the month and right at around $2,486.94 (M,11 and M,13).

Another clarification that I should make is if the BTC price were to exceed the highest BTC spot price on the furthest left of Row 3 which would be $435, or higher (U,3), at the beginning of December, which is 1,400% higher ((U,2) than then 200-week moving average of $29,041 (K,3), then amount of authorization of BTC to withdraw is still the same (0.06860513 BTC for the month); however there is an authorization to withdraw and to cash out of BTC up to 60 months of the monthly limits in advance..which shows as 4.11630772 BTC (U,20)  (U,13 = $1,790,593.86).  

Of course once the BTC price gets 0.33% or higher above the 200, week moving average, then gradually the number of months that can be withdrawn in advance increases at various thresholds as reflected in the increases in the percentages above the 200-week moving average in row 3 starting from column N and going through column U.  And the number of months authorized to withdraw in advance are reflected in Row 1 and show greater than 1 month in advance starting from Column N at 2 months and Column U at 60 months.

My tentative thoughts is that it would be a preferred practice to cash out several months of the monthly authorization in advance under such conditions of BTC prices many multiples and/or multitudes above the 200-week moving average in order to expect that some of the higher multitudes of being that high above the 200-week moving average are not really sustainable... and we have seen that non-sustainability high spot BTC prices historically, even though we cannot really know in advance how far UP, how fast the BTC spot price might go up and/or how long it will last at various higher price thresholds.  

I speculate that as the BTC price is going up and if it reaches higher multiples above the 200-week moving average, we might still get anxious about selling additional BTC (beyond the monthly sales authorization), and so we might still end up selling a number of months of our BTC authorization in advance at lower BTC price  thresholds.  It seems to me that even if the BTC price were to go 200% above the 200 week moving average as reflected in Column Q, we might end up selling 12 months of our monthly authorization in advance, so it might seem that we could be precluded from selling any BTC for the next 11 months; however, if a few months later, the BTC price were to reach the thresholds in Column S, then it may be quite reasonable to sell an additional 24 months to reach the authorization of being able to sell 36 months in advance (S,1), so we can make those kinds of calculations in order to stay within our limits but not necessarily being overly penalized for selling early even though we would have been able to sell more for higher but we are still able to do it within some reasonable limitations that are still quite generous in terms of the amounts that we are able to sell in advance, and the same is true for getting into the higher BTC spot prices of Column T or Column U.  

If the BTC price reaches higher thresholds, there would be new authorization to sell additional months in advance based on the higher BTC spot price movement, and at the same time, we can continue to plug into our formula based on how much we had already sold and based on the 200-week moving average continuing to move up while the BTC spot price is moving up and the higher the BTC spot price is out of line with the 200-week moving average (and for longer that the BTC spot price stays high) then it will cause the 200-week moving average to get drug up faster and faster than it had been previously (and can be measured daily or whatever is ball-parkedly reasonable numbers to use in K,3).. .It can be measured here, too.

I understand that there is quite a bit of data in the charts and some of the ideas regarding the monthly spending limitations of the accounts are somewhat discretionary, but starting out by sticking with standard 4% per year withdrawal rates and even presume a kind of perpetual ability to withdraw BTC under this kind of system with a kind of underlying assumption that BTC prices (especially the 200-week moving average) will continue to go up at least 4% per year on average, so even if there are some down, years the account is not materially getting depleted in terms of its dollar values (or whatever other utility we might be measuring our cost of living).  I also realize that account 1 and account 2 are not very materially different from each other in terms of the current balance of the accounts, so maybe i could have had come up with some differences in which one of the accounts might have hade been maxing out the monthly budget limit and the other one was spending minimal levels.. Maybe a future version I will change them around a bit?

Any thoughts or feedback would be appreciated, or even some real life examples of trying to figure out these kinds of balances.  I am focused on BTC in this example, but of course, there could be various other assets that comprise someone's investment portfolio and maybe even cashflow, so surely I am not against any kinds of Gresham Law types of considerations in which there would likely be spending from other assets prior to spending from BTC, so if the accounts are not spent to the max of their limits, then whatever BTC remains would just continue to sit in the accounts with probably a need to consider whether to maximize withdrawal or to sometimes even hold back on withdrawal or to maximize withdrawal which is also partially already guided by the parameters and assumptions contained in the chart/table.

Last Edited: December 17, 2023   - and now a website to help to figure out these calculations and also a new thread by Bitmover.
legendary
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
This thread serves as an extension to the maintenance and liquidation portion of my BTC Investment ideas thread since some of the various Opening posts in that thread were starting to get overly cluttered and potentially confusing.

1)   This post:  Introduction (Opening Post 1):  
2)   Opening Post 2: Creating monthly withdrawal limits - based on the then BTC Spot price's direction and distance from the 200-week moving average, and of course a withdrawal rate and quantity of coins in the account
3)   Opening Post 3: Establishing price-based sell thresholds  - including potential buy back options (yes seeming to border on trading - but really could be considered as ways to insure the BTC holdings from inevitable volatility
4)   Opening Post 4:  Reserved - still to be determined

I am hoping that some of these ideas will be helpful to others, besides me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.  

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

Even though I made this as a self-moderated thread, I am open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks herein, but at my discretion I may delete posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.  

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes.

Last Edited: December 17, 2023
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