Since we were coming upon the end of November and the actual 200-week moving average is ending up to playing out as nearly 10% lower than my projection (just above $29k rather than my $32,127 projection), I figured that I needed to take another look at the way that I was arriving at my 200-week moving average trajectoring out numbers, which largely was that I was using various tweaks on formulas in order to start from around 2010 and then to trajector all the way through the whole table, and given the kind of erratic way that the 200-week moving average seems to have historically moved up, I was having a lot of difficulties to fit both past performance and to come up with future performance projections on a kind of curved line that I expected to slope off with less and less steepness with the passage of time.
It seems to me that no matter what, there is going to be some guessing when it comes to the future, so I therefore decided to discontinue trajectoring the past 200-week moving averages, but instead to plug the actual numbers into the chart to reflect the actual 200-week moving average amounts for the past dates, and thereafter attempt to trajector out based on guesses of how four-year cycles had historically played out. which I concluded seemed to largely be two years of increasing slopes of the 200-week moving average and then another 2 years of decreasing slopes, and surely this pattern is not guaranteed to continue,
but it just started to seem safer to me to try to be more conservative with the numbers while attempting to keep somewhat of a pattern of two years of higher increases in the slope of the 200-week moving average and two years of lower increases of the slope of the 200-week moving average and the numbers likely coming together (the up-year numbers becoming smaller and the down year numbers also getting smaller but just at a slower rate) but always staying positive for all of the projections of the future (even though there may well be periods in the future in which the slope of the 200-week moving average is not going to be positive, whether it is just over one of the 6 month cells or whether the non-positiveness lasts over 4 of the 6 months cells (or even longer) in which 4 cells are meant to reflect a 2-year period of time in the cycle.
In the end, the revised numbers for the 200-week moving averages of my new chart are even more conservative than previously, which largely means that I am projecting outwardly that it will take more BTC to reach fuck you status in light the trajectored out bottom BTC prices, and perhaps even erroring on the side of being overly conservative, so if I am wrong, I would prefer to be wrong on the downside rather than the upside... even though surely there are a variety of negative scenarios that could end up happening to cause the whole model and assumptions underlying the model to end up being way more wrong than expected.
Another thing that I did was to encumber the page a bit more by showing my numbers all the way back to 2010 and then to show all of them all the way to 2078.. . and hopefully, I will just update the table every 6 months, and if the 200-week moving average ends up being very close to the projected 200-week moving average, then I should not need to change the future projections, and at this time, as I already mentioned, I am somewhat expecting my numbers to underperform, but I might end up looking like a fool with such expectations.. especially since erraticness, volatility and battles is not off the table for expected future BTC price dynamics that could cause the numbers to gravitate in either direction of my current expectations.
Below is my old Chart from April 17 & August 6, 2023 that I am replacing,, and the new chart is in post 3. I could not place both charts in the same post because I get an error.
(Date)
Bump: Very nice. Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025. Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less? Maybe something like this? Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25% Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35% Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30% High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75% Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2% SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5% To me, it will be crucial to clear the old ATH before the end of 2024. I am pretty confident it will happen, even more, if the ETF is approved next year: if everything goes as planned already in January, with plenty of time to be fully in effect in H1 gobbling up bitcoins. First: What is H1? Second: In accordance with my above outline, any clearing of the ATH before the end of 2025 would help to make the underlying presumption more sound, and then it is merely a matter of how much happens before the end of 2025, I suppose that the odds (and the expected range of each) would also end up changing for each of the categories if the most bearish one ends up getting met.... especially since BTC prices have to go up about 86% merely in order to fullfull the underlying presumption that an ATH will be reached prior to the end of 2025, and once the whichever of the price ranges gets reached then it is no longer a prediction but instead becomes a certainty for that category, so then each of the categories and ranges might need to be tweaked from time to time based on them having had been met and whether it is perceived that we are "on schedule" or ahead of schedule or whatever, and surely it would be nice to knock some of the categories out from time to time during 2024 and 2025, and the more that the BTC price goes up then maybe even the odds for the upside scenarios would end up changing based on what had ended up already happening. I am not much of a stickler for sticking with old predictions once the facts have changed, but the mere changing of facts still would not change the earlier predictions as being captured at that moment in time. Another thing is that I am kind of just shooting from the seat of my pants, so sometimes people will come up with their own predictions in regards to this, and surely I don't have any problem with that, but instead of what I attempted to do, they might just give one of the scenarios and proclaim something like: "the price of BTC is going to top out between $110k and $170k by no later than the end of 2025".. And yeah sometimes it is even worse than that because they don't give a date and sometimes not even a range, and then they don't really give their odds either, and they don't really give any alternative scenarios which even if that might be their base case, you can see that my base case is probably "Conservative:[/b] $80,001 to $150k - 35%" because at this time, the conservative scenario has the highest odds, even though I might have to change them later.. since I just threw down a kind of quickie estimation to attempt to respond to a post from member jrrsparkles in the other thread.. but I am probably thinking more of the "middle" scenario, but I also hate to be overly optimistic too soon and then end up disappointing myself if such scenario does not even come close to ending up happening.. so I suppose even in my mind it seems really great to merely get to ATHs again prior to the end of 2025, and anything beyond that is really icing on the cake. even though anything beyond ATH is also kind of presumed, too.. Why else would I make such a post that presumes an ATH is reached prior to the end of 2025?.. .. I mean maybe even the real reality of the matter is just that if the 200-week moving average continues to move up between 6% and 12% per year, then aren't longer term bitcoiners doing good? The 200-week moving average is currently moving up a little more than $20 per day, but even if we presume $20 per day, that is $7,300 (365 x $20) in a year and it gives us a 25% price increase for the next year... well the 200-week moving average is currently at $28,643, so yeah our $7,300 would need to be added onto that, so $36k for November 11, 2024. but of course, we likely realize that BTC prices tend to be quite a bit above the 200 week moving average, so the 200-week moving average is a kind of bottom indicator rather than anything that we should be tied down to when it comes to tops. In bitcoin, presuming fair value BTC prices to tend to be 25% to 100% higher than the 200-week moving average does not seem to be unreasonable at all, and so maybe those numbers will go down in the future.. and maybe the BTC price will stick a lot closer to the 200 week moving average, like maybe even within around 25% or so? But for now, I am not going to presume bitcoin to be something that it is not, and we have to consider to include the ideas of exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought). Yes we want more than just 6% to 12% per year... and/or more than 25% to 43% per year. It just seems expected to get more than 48% per year in the coming years..almost like a given.. but can we really expect more? Maybe I am feeling guilty by even presuming a new ATH by the end of 2025, since that is like getting some where in the arena of 43% per year returns in each of the next two years, and can we even presume that? Seems crazy, even though it kind of seem that we can have some level of presumption, but it still seems kind of fantasylandia if you really think about it that we are presuming an ATH prior to the end of 2025. It is like the amount of BTC price appreciation that we are presuming should justify throwing a lot of assets into bitcoin, but some of us already have a lot of assets in bitcoin due to earlier price appreciations of it, so it is not even like we need to throw more assets into bitcoin in order to benefit tremendously from it (and why get greedy), so the motivation about getting in and recognizing base cases that are pretty bullish in their presumptions really should go to the no coiners and the low coiners, but they don't even seem to hold similar basic level presumptions as the longer term bitcoiners presume at least 43% per year in each of the next two years.. and your expectation of ATH by the end of 2024 is like you are presuming an 86%-ish return by the end of 2024...and a strange thing is that does not even sound unrealistic to me. I should be calling you names right now for your expectation of 86% returns in the next 13.5 months in regards to your level of seeing unicorns but I am not going to call you any names.. because pretty much I believe similarly.. not completely. as you seem to be suggesting that it might not happen, but still, I think that you still pretty much agree that the underlying presumption of making an new ATH by the end of 2025 is not even close to unrealistic... so then it is just a matter of how much and whether you might choose to assign different percentages to the chosen ranges, considering that we are presuming that we are going to be getting to an ATH on or before the end of 2025. Bump: Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025. Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less? Maybe something like this? Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25% Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35% Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30% High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75% Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2% SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5% Very nice. To me, it will be crucial to clear the old ATH before the end of 2024. I am pretty confident it will happen, even more, if the ETF is approved next year: if everything goes as planned already in January, with plenty of time to be fully in effect in H1 gobbling up bitcoins.
Bump:
Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025. Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less? Maybe something like this? Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25% Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35% Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30% High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75% Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2% SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5% [edited out] Indeed every form of businesses requires knowledgeable detailed ideas if not at experiences. Be curious to learn about a thought of business and your passionate towards making profits on a field you know nothing about. Things ain't jus the easy it is seen. If one is seems prosperous at a point does not mean it must favour you too. There are verities there is a likelihood about investments which are termed to proffer complete helter skelter striving to keep your investment on a survival but only BTC could render you a reliance with a minimum knowledge which you don't need a muscle to push on before getting to the hill of greatness. You only have to keep your mind of deck keep staring and steering at your coin(s) while you watch it grows like you are watering a plant of you steering your cooking put waiting to get cooked in no time because Bitcoin investment is a magical investment system.Yes of course ignorantly venturing into a business unknowledged about is as gambling with your investment. Are you actually considering my thread in terms of your own business, or maybe if you have some ideas regarding your own individual circumstances, we can try to apply some of my ideas to your situation if you would like to share some of that in this thread and sure, there are no needs to reveal private information - and even if you want to talk about the circumstances of a friend, or a hypothetical person, then maybe we would have something more concrete to discuss in terms of how we might consider involving bitcoin into the mix - even if you might be considering the situation of a business - which does have the potential to bring about some of its own business specific complexities.. but in the end we still are likely boiling down to the ability to invest into bitcoin likely comes after accounting for expenses and income and would mostly come from extra income in order to stay within the realm of investing rather than gambling as you seem to have alluded to that kind of problem that anyone could have with his/her bitcoin investment approach. Although, in investment such as bitcoin, it requires for individuals to first of all have a pre planned approach before they start the journey just like in any form of business, so for that, EluguHcman may have to properly digest the topic and make a personal analysis of the various approaches that are employed by ops to make a good outcome in the long term. Of course, positive results are not guaranteed for any way of investing, even with something like bitcoin that seems to be amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside that is currently available, if not the best. At the same time, there are going to be needs to make sure that you do not overinvest in such ways that you do not have enough money to cover your cashflows, and the cashflows of businesses tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of individuals and also the cashflows of married with familities will tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of single individuals. Even though cashflows might be more complicated, that does not necessarily mean that abilities to invest into bitcoin would be more complicated because sometimes complicated cashflows might create more discretionary income, so then more options regarding how to allocate funds (just like governments might have more options than businesses, but they still likely have to manage their finances well, otherwise they might end up screwing up their own finances because they did not adequately account for their expenses when they chose to invest into bitcoin). [edited out] Indeed every form of businesses requires knowledgeable detailed ideas if not at experiences. Be curious to learn about a thought of business and your passionate towards making profits on a field you know nothing about. Things ain't jus the easy it is seen. If one is seems prosperous at a point does not mean it must favour you too. There are verities there is a likelihood about investments which are termed to proffer complete helter skelter striving to keep your investment on a survival but only BTC could render you a reliance with a minimum knowledge which you don't need a muscle to push on before getting to the hill of greatness. You only have to keep your mind of deck keep staring and steering at your coin(s) while you watch it grows like you are watering a plant of you steering your cooking put waiting to get cooked in no time because Bitcoin investment is a magical investment system.Yes of course ignorantly venturing into a business unknowledged about is as gambling with your investment. You are speaking quite generally and vaguely EluguHcman, and even though ideas of this thread could be used for businesses or even governments, I was not attempting to add those kinds of additional complexities into various investment ideas for the consideration of individuals and/or their thinking about the inclusion of bitcoin in their own investment portfolios. Are you actually considering my thread in terms of your own business, or maybe if you have some ideas regarding your own individual circumstances, we can try to apply some of my ideas to your situation if you would like to share some of that in this thread and sure, there are no needs to reveal private information - and even if you want to talk about the circumstances of a friend, or a hypothetical person, then maybe we would have something more concrete to discuss in terms of how we might consider involving bitcoin into the mix - even if you might be considering the situation of a business - which does have the potential to bring about some of its own business specific complexities.. but in the end we still are likely boiling down to the ability to invest into bitcoin likely comes after accounting for expenses and income and would mostly come from extra income in order to stay within the realm of investing rather than gambling as you seem to have alluded to that kind of problem that anyone could have with his/her bitcoin investment approach. Although, in investment such as bitcoin, it requires for individuals to first of all have a pre planned approach before they start the journey just like in any form of business, so for that, EluguHcman may have to properly digest the topic and make a personal analysis of the various approaches that are employed by ops to make a good outcome in the long term. [edited out] Indeed every form of businesses requires knowledgeable detailed ideas if not at experiences. Be curious to learn about a thought of business and your passionate towards making profits on a field you know nothing about. Things ain't jus the easy it is seen. If one is seems prosperous at a point does not mean it must favour you too. There are verities there is a likelihood about investments which are termed to proffer complete helter skelter striving to keep your investment on a survival but only BTC could render you a reliance with a minimum knowledge which you don't need a muscle to push on before getting to the hill of greatness. You only have to keep your mind of deck keep staring and steering at your coin(s) while you watch it grows like you are watering a plant of you steering your cooking put waiting to get cooked in no time because Bitcoin investment is a magical investment system.Yes of course ignorantly venturing into a business unknowledged about is as gambling with your investment. You are speaking quite generally and vaguely EluguHcman, and even though ideas of this thread could be used for businesses or even governments, I was not attempting to add those kinds of additional complexities into various investment ideas for the consideration of individuals and/or their thinking about the inclusion of bitcoin in their own investment portfolios. Are you actually considering my thread in terms of your own business, or maybe if you have some ideas regarding your own individual circumstances, we can try to apply some of my ideas to your situation if you would like to share some of that in this thread and sure, there are no needs to reveal private information - and even if you want to talk about the circumstances of a friend, or a hypothetical person, then maybe we would have something more concrete to discuss in terms of how we might consider involving bitcoin into the mix - even if you might be considering the situation of a business - which does have the potential to bring about some of its own business specific complexities.. but in the end we still are likely boiling down to the ability to invest into bitcoin likely comes after accounting for expenses and income and would mostly come from extra income in order to stay within the realm of investing rather than gambling as you seem to have alluded to that kind of problem that anyone could have with his/her bitcoin investment approach. Reserved 2 Indeed every form of businesses requires knowledgeable detailed ideas if not at experiences. Be curious to learn about a thought of business and your passionate towards making profits on a field you know nothing about. Things ain't jus the easy it is seen. If one is seems prosperous at a point does not mean it must favour you too. There are verities there is a likelihood about investments which are termed to proffer complete helter skelter striving to keep your investment on a survival but only BTC could render you a reliance with a minimum knowledge which you don't need a muscle to push on before getting to the hill of greatness. You only have to keep your mind of deck keep staring and steering at your coin(s) while you watch it grows like you are watering a plant of you steering your cooking put waiting to get cooked in no time because Bitcoin investment is a magical investment system.Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin) First things first, no? Before any of us invest into anything, we should strive to figure out our own situation and individual circumstances to the best of our abilities. Of course, we do not necessarily want the perfect to become the enemy of the good, but at the same time, if we cannot figure out various aspects of our own personal circumstances, then any investment that we make, whether it is into bitcoin or into some other investment, we may well devolve into gambling rather than investing. These principle individual factors have financial, skills and psychological components and include: 1) cashflow, 2) other investments, 3) view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, 4) timeline, 5) risk tolerance, 6) time, skills and abilities to plan, strategize and learn along the way including but not limited to tweaking from time to time, reallocating from time to time, using financial instruments and/or leverage and/or margin trading.. and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet. I will say straight up that it can take a pretty long time to figure out all of these factors, and even if you do not know the exact answers for each or any of the categories, that lack of perfect knowledge should not stop you from getting started into investing in bitcoin including that you can continue to learn and to improve upon each of the areas (and all of the areas) to better get to know yourself and your particulars with practice and continued attempts at application and tweaking along the way. In the near future, I will be fleshing out the above six categories a bit more and adding them here.. but just my providing the above 6 categories should already be helpful for anyone investing into bitcoin and the main aspect still remains that bitcoin investors should be spending some time figuring out some of the application of each of these ideas for themselves. ONLY after we go through some preliminary steps of understanding our own situation in respect to the above categories, then we should be able to set our BTC investment target allocation, and of course, our target could change over time, so if we are an already established investor with several investments and a decently long history of investing that has allowed us to accumulate investment assets.. perhaps over 10 years or more, then we might well decide to get off of zero and have a BTC investment target anywhere between 1% and 10% of our total investment portfolio. The 1% to 10% range is a starting out area, and of course the more that we learn about bitcoin might cause us to gravitate to some level outside of the range. I would suspect that the more that anyone studies bitcoin should cause him/her to go higher in terms of allocation and perhaps above the 10% level. Furthermore, the more bullish we are about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the more bearish (or timid) that we might be about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate more towards the lower end of the range. If we happen to be a less established investor and we have no other assets, we may well allocate all of our investment into BTC until we reach a certain level that would thereby allow us to diversify after we had already reached a certain level of investment whether that is $10k or $100k or some other amount would be our determination regarding if we might need to start to diversify into other investments besides having everything into bitcoin. Last Edited: December 14, 2021 Yes of course ignorantly venturing into a business unknowledged about is as gambling with your investment.
Since I was attempting to avoid some clutter and I frequently refer to data in this table, here's a more complete version of the table that would be extension of the one in Opening Post 3:
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