my portfolio management is not about selling the hoard at all..
i am a hoarder. i still have my stash from 2012.
Some of your responses do NOT read as being consistent with this kind of an approach to bitcoin.
Many of us can appreciate that time in the market is much better than attempting to time the market. Bitcoin has shown itself to be a kind of poster-boy for this concept.
So if you had a fairly consistent DCA strategy since your forum registration date in September 2012, then you would not have even had to have invested very much in order to have very strong returns.
If you have strong returns and a good position, then I have trouble understanding why you would want to be recommending fucking around with trying to time the market when DCA has been very powerful in bitcoin and is likely to continue to be very powerful in bitcoin.
Again, let's take your forum registration date.. If I plug in a modest
DCA of $10 per week, that would put you at about 28 BTC, and of course, you can do variations of aggressiveness in order to show higher levels of performance, so even
$50 per week will put you at 5x that amount at 140 BTC... So I am having trouble understanding why you might want to consider that you would have needed better performance than that?
Sure, the more aggressive approach of investing more does give you higher performance, but I still would consider that DCA'ing is a very powerful strategy that can be supplemented by lumpsum buying and by buying on dips, and no need to be fucking around with selling in order to try to time the market.. but of course, once youhave established a decent sized BTC stash, then of course, you can make decisions based on individual circumstances to play around with some portion of your stash;. hopefully not large amounts.. such as greater than 10% of your stash, but hey, people are going to have tendencies to gamble, but I have always been concerned about preserving capital, so really I do not want to be screwing around with more than about 10% of my stash, even though I understand that adults are sometimes going to come to different trade offs and balancing than me.
my premiss is about the accumilation to add more at the best rates possible to add to the stash
nothing about what i said involves selling.
its simply if your average regular investment is say 5% of regular income. and the price today is $48k knowing that it can go into the $65k range or the $40k range as thats the window of the last couple months.
Fair enough about my having had understood you to be suggesting selling to buy back cheaper, and so we agree that tends to be a risky approach.
At some point, I will flesh out my ideas a bit better, but of course, I already mentioned that I believe DCA is the crux of any BTC accumulating approach.. and if buying on dips is meant to supplement DCA'ing then of course, there can be some pre-set buying on dip orders already set up, and if you do not buy through buy orders, then you can attempt to buy manually on dips too..
Of course if you already have a decent stash of BTC, then you can be a bit more strategic in terms of waiting for dips to buy and pre-decide how much of a dip you want before triggering you to buy. After seeing some further discussion from you, we might NOT have very different views in regards to buying on dips.. perhaps.
then increasing to 7% at $43k if the price dips. 9% if $40k and if your lucky to see the price go down to below $40k increase to 11%, take advantage of the lower prices.
not increase to 9% if the price rises to $65k+, as you have promoted
You still seem to be mis-describing what I had been saying, and I do not disagree with attempting to be strategic about buying on dips.. but I still do believe that the practice of buying on dips is quite a bit more sophisticated than pure DCA, so in that regard, DCA remains a better overall strategy as a staple practice... so that you are not spending too much time trying to figure out if there is a dip, how much dip do you need and a variety of other factors that might cause too much waiting rather than just buying on a regular basis.
Of course, quite a bit of this will depend on the particulars of the person and how much time s/he wants to spend watching the charts or trying to be strategic about his/her buys... If the person is an absolute beginner, then the best way to start is just figuring out how much of a DCA to begin to employ based on assessing personal circumstances, whether that is $10 per week or $100 per week or some other suitable amount, and then perhaps after setting up the DCA, the study into bitcoin and try to figure out if there might be ways that s/he would like to supplement his/her BTC accumulation in order to attempt to reach some target levels more quickly, if there might be some kinds of time preferences or investment amounts that are wanted to be achieved by a certain time period.
..
for me. i dont even value my hoard. i dont get emotional about my hoard. i have no clue what the dollar total of my hoard is as of todays price because i never value my hoard daily. i have no intention to sell it now so why bother even knowing what its worth now.
I would think that it is better to know how many BTC you have and what they are worth and also to have some ideas regarding your cashflow and the value of your various other investments rather than not knowing. Once you know these various particulars, then you likely put yourself into a way better position in terms of figuring how much you want to buy/sell on a regular basis and maybe even figure out how much you need to have in order to reach entry-level fuck you status and perhaps even to be able to sustain a lifestyle that allows you to stay in fuck you status.... I do intend to flesh out several of these kinds of concepts further in this thread and to place the concepts at various points in the 5 OP posts.. and surely it seems to me that if you do not want to make those kinds of assessment regarding your own personal finances and psychology, then from my point of view you seem to be purposefully handicapping yourself in terms of knowing whether whatever you are doing is working, effective or needs to be tweaked in one way or another.
Of course, to each their own in terms of NOT wanting to assess your finances and/or your psychology (of course, you do not necessarily need to share any of your details withus or in this thread), but I would still think that you are even in a better position to even talk about what you are doing or to criticize the views and/or actions of others if you have a pretty decent grasp upon what you are planning, what you are doing, the effectiveness of what you are doing and if it is affecting you one way or another psychologically or financially.
what i do is just look at the advantages i can take to buy cheap coins when the price is lower than the last ATH and not buy coins when the price looks like its peaking near or above a previous ATH
Nothing wrong with that.
i buy the dips and just not buy the hype.
Sounds a bit superficial in your assessment or even your description of when you might be triggered by what is hype or not hype.. For sure, I believe that BTC buying needs to have pretty strong components that involve personal assessments, and hype (or however others might be feeling) does not play any kind of strong role in my usual assessment, even though sometimes market sentiment can be one factor to take into account too.. depending on circumstances... but my own personal approach is that I tend to think about my situation in advance and then I set up my various buy or sell orders.
When I first started buying BTC, I also had a weekly allowance.. at least for the first year, and then after the first year, I was a little bit less strict upon myself in terms of giving myself an allowance, but I still tended to set some parameters for what I was doing whether it involved setting buy/sell orders, and figuring out spreads between buys/sells, increments on one side or the other and amounts... once those systems were already in place, then I would not tend to change them based on what other people think or where the price might be going, so that for the vast majority of instances the price would be coming to me. If the price goes up then I sell small amounts and if the price goes down I buy... so currently I have buy orders that start at about $44.5k and go down in $1k increments down to about $20.5k, and if the BTC price goes lower than $20.5k, I will need to reassess if I am going to buy more or just HODL.
On the way up, I have sell orders that start at $52.5k and initially they are $1k increments, but then they go to $2,500 increments and then $3,333 increments, and currently they go up to $150k.. if the price goes higher than $150k, I will set some more orders, but I have outlines that show the anticipated value of my BTC and the value of my anticipated dollars that go up more than 100x current price, and surely those are just outlines, because in 2017, it seemed that the price went up so fast that my earlier charts did not project very well up to $20k.. but I was able to extend and this time up to $70k was not too taxing on figuring out matters, and I have the sense that my charts give me pretty decent outlines and sure it has not hurt for me to reassess from old charts to see where I ended up at certain price points in comparison to where I had expected to be. So I find a lot of that analysis helpful to figure out if I might feel better to tweak my plans in one direction or another in order to just feel appropriately balanced depending on if the price goes up and down within a range for a while or if the price ends up going down quickly or up quickly and then I have some sense of where I expect to be financially (which thereby helps my psychology in terms of ending up somewhere far from expectations).
if people are looking to hoard for 1-5-10 years. there is no point in/no reason to value the hoard daily and getting emotional about it. your not gonna touch it. so dont think about it,
leave it at the side untouched and unvalued.
Those are strange ideas, franky1. Of course, I agree with your point about preferring to structure approaches to your BTC that cause you to NOT become too emotional about it, but I doubt that it is very effective to achieve a kind of emotional neutrality based on pure ignorance. On the other hand, I do accept that people have differing approaches to how they deal with matters and how much they plan, strategize and/or think before acting.
the only thing to concentrate on is your regular buy-in amount. and how much value you can gain from the regular buy-in trades by looking at the risk of 'buy low vs buy high'
Seems to me that attempting to be so narrow about your assessment of your overall stash and what you are going to do, then you are more likely to end up in positions of potential panic because you have inadequately prepared yourself financially or psychologically.
As a starting point, sure it is likely good to know your basics in terms of how many BTC you have and how much you paid for them, and sure if you are contemplating buying more BTC, you may well want to consider if the price is going to go up during the time that you are expecting to hold your BTC, and so I cannot disagree that it is important to have at least those kinds of basics, yet I expect to be covering a whole hell of a lot in this thread in terms of possible matters to consider in terms of attempting to plan, strategize and to achieve various BTC related investment goals. Of course, anyone is free to attempt to employ any of the strategies that I discuss in this thread, and I expect that my sharing of ideas helps me to learn and also that I will be learning new strategies from other members.. and surely I will be able to consider whether to incorporate any of those strategies into what I do or plan to do in the future.
I have already learned a lot from many members in this forum, and of course, I have not always agreed with the approaches of some members too. So surely there can be benefits to having back and forth discussions regarding these matters, and at the same time, I appreciate that some forum members likely do just fine with their BTC portfolio management by employing very simple and straight-forward approaches.
its literally explaining the risk level in the term
buy low(low risk) vs buy high(high risk)
and that should be as simple as buy less at high and buy more at low
nothing at all to do with selling
Yes.. having some of the basics under your belt is likely a good thing. Also, if you spend 9 years buying bitcoin, but you never sell, then we have already seen that bitcoin has had a lot of tendencies to go up in price and to break new all time highs, so it becomes pretty damned difficult to screw anything up, in terms of being in profits if you have spent the last 9 years buying bitcoin. Of course, there have been a lot of up and down periods in the past 9 years too, so if you were able to buy at the bottom of some of the waves you may well have gotten more bitcoin than if you bought at the top of various waves.. but in any event, if you never sold, then no matter what you should be in profits, and so whether or not you beat a kind of pure DCA strategy might be another story.
The DCAbtc.com links that I provided earlier show that a 9 year buying of BTC starting in September 2012, then you should at least have in the ballpark of close to 3,000x price appreciation. So there ends up being some question regarding how much you put into BTC in order to figure out how many options that you end up having from being able to take advantage of that passage of time with your investment. On the other hand, if you had lump sum invested at any point in 2012, you would likely have even better returns than 3,000x.. so there can be some differences in personal BTC portfolio performance depending on how you went about it.. and even the pretty BIG ASS screw ups, may still be sitting in a decent place if they ONLY bought and never sold.
So perhaps some of the devil is in the details franky1.. ? even though I am not really asking you to give up any OPsec, but if you want to be helpful to others, you may well need to get into some details, even if none of us can go back in time and fix the situation and we can ONLY invest and take action based on what we have in front of ourselves right now and attempt to plan, consider and strategize the best plans to accumulate or to manage our BTC portfolios (if we have any) that we can and hopefully learn how to tweak what we have, as needed too.
This strategy fits my overall personal finance strategy.
I believe that I can somewhat presume that if you had an initial goal of not really shaving off any profits until you were at least 10x in profits, then surely anything above $25k meets your goal if you had maintained a cost per BTC of around $2.5k.. .. and for sure, those kinds of calculations seem reasonably fair, and I expect to be discussing some of that more in this thread and also presenting some of those kinds of ideas in OP, too.
My main point here is not 1000% or whatever. 1000% is not enough for me, I started tô sold on about 45k, which is nearly 2000%, but I am not really selling too much of my stash. I will be selling for as long as possible using the tax free range, but I am not really dumping my stash.
Fair enough. I was not really trying to trap you into any specifics except to just recognize that anything above $25k would rise to the level of at least 10x.. so surely not a bad place to be. ..so it is kind of icing on the cake to get even higher returns.
As I had already mentioned, in recent times I have been just using an average cost of $1k per BTC for myself in order to make some of my calculations easy, and to still be able to make various points about why should any of us care very much if we might end up shaving off some of our stash at 30x, 50x or 70x.. There is a certain amount of confidence that comes from both having a lot of profits no matter the price that some BTC is shaved off, and even perhaps not really feeling any kind of pressure to shave off large amounts and still be satisfied.
I don't have a number for really aggressive sell offs, maybe in 100k, 150k? I really don't know.
I had been considering that kind of a dilemma too and if there might be some kinds of logical price points to consider the increased shaving off of some extra BTC on the way up (if the price does end up going up)...
Sure, I already have a practice of shaving off BTC on the way up, and I also already have a practice of sometimes shaving some extra off on the way up, yet since I have a tendency to act in incrementalist ways, then if I end up creating a plan to shave off extra then I would end up engaging in such extra shavings within a range... So for me, if there were a plan to shave off normally up to $92k, and then perhaps I had a plan to shave off 2% to 4% on the way up to $200k, but then if I start to consider that $200k might be the top, then I might decide to alter my plan to shave off 4% to 8%... But there could be some dilemmas in terms of deciding whether to be more aggressive or not.. or maybe make an attempt to be more systematic about it in terms of maybe treating the range from here to $62k in one kind of way and then the range from $62k to $92k in another kind of way, and then from $92k to $112k in even another kind of a way, and then maybe treating the range from $112k to $200k in another kind of way. Currently, I have ONLY placed sell orders up to $150k, and so there are already some contained assumptions in those sell orders, but those sell orders are not locked in stone - but if I were to tweak those sell orders in one way or another, I am ONLY going to tweak incrementally, because I do not tend to play BIG... and generally speaking I can already see who some of those changes end up playing out on a spreadsheet, so I can spend some time considering whether I feel content to those numbers, even if the BTC price goes shooting up more or in the event that the numbers are not reached in this cycle and there ends up being some kind of a long drawn out correction period at some point prior to the sell orders executing.
Most of my portfolio consist of bonds and ETF, which I believe are more solid. I will never have less than 10% of my bitxoin in my portfolio just because I am too involved in it, and I am really bullish about it.
Yes.. hopefully, we can discuss some of these ideas further, and for sure, I had already mentioned that if you have achieved a kind of overallocation in BTC due to its appreciation rather than putting value into it, then quite a few options can develop from having overallocation due to profits.. .. and so we know that some traditional financial advisors or consultants are restricted in the various ways that they can manage portfolios, and they sometimes want to propagate ideas about how to manage portfolios based on restrictions that they have to follow, and in several senses, individuals have way more flexibility than those traditional financial consultants/advisors, and there may well be instances in which it is way more to our advantage to not reallocate into losers and to let our winners ride.. .. so we may well understand that we are not having to reallocate merely for the sake of reallocating but instead considering the extent to which our situation might justify some (if any) reallocations or just continuing to allow the winners to ride, and in this case I am mostly talking about bitcoin, but for sure there could be some other investments such as bitcoin related investments that cause several aspects of a guy's portfolio to have lot of bitcoin allocated into it, and s/he is faced with potentially conflicting information regarding whether it might or might not be justifiable to reallocate away from having too much value that is tied to bitcoin .. or too much value that is tied to the dollar or some other asset category that may or may not be good for your finances or for your psychology.
I am no professional, but I do my own decisions s without any consultors.
I am pretty much the same.
I buy mostly IWDA (developed countires) and EIMI (emergents) etfs , and now I am searching about EMXC (emergents excluded China, because I don't think that country is going anywhere)
I don't have those kinds of investments. I have various kinds of index funds and then some kinds of property.. .. and some cashflowing arrangements.
On bonds, I focus in Brazil because I live here. Anyone can just buy Brazilian treasure bonds for 15% apy (inflation plus 5%) which is more than enough for me.
My portfolio is basically that, and I am slowly relocating my btc gains to those few assets.
Sometimes I do also consider whether there might be some other kinds of investments that I can make, but even when I came to bitcoin in 2013, I had quite a bit of traditional investments in the various index funds and I had even tried some more aggressive index funds in 2013, 2014 and maybe even part of 2015 before deciding to just leave my various traditional investments alone and to focus more on the BTC values.. so in that regard, I got a little worried that my money would be better allocated to bitcoin.. so my various traditional funds did constitute around 86.5% of all of my investments and my bitcoin were like 13.5%, and the traditional funds did end up growing about 70% over those 8 years, but the bitcoin grew about 40x to 150x (depending on how calculated).. even though my profits were probably less than 20x.. but the way that I managed my funds ended up causing the traditional funds to constitute about 10% and the BTC to constitute about 90%... and that is the current relative location.. even though sure there is some cash value in there too... that is more likely considered as part of the my moneys that go in and out of my BTC holdings.
So, yeah each of us make decisions, and surely I had considered that I could completely live off of my various traditional funds that only constitute 10% of the total value, but with some of the liquidity, supply chain and virus matters and various other weird government responses, I sometimes wonder if I could actually live off that 10% in those various traditional funds.. maybe there are some aspects that my expected standard of living is to expect that my BTC is going to continue to retain value that is likely going to continue to be much more than my traditional investments.. and whether I feel that I need to make any other investments or not would merely just for various kinds of incidental steps perhaps. I do have some other intentions for my BTC.. in terms of possibly creating a trust or a business.. that generates cashflows.. but that is another topic that I may well be getting into a topic of another thread that I intend to make in the future.
[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]
