Topic: JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas - page 2. (Read 1956 times)

I wasn't clear whether I should be calling this post a "Bump" or if it is just an "update," since I have just revised my Fuck You Status chart from December 28, 2021 (in opening post 3) - in order to account for the severity of our December 2021 - present price drop and then also to attempt curve future anticipated BTC price appreciations rather than my earlier straight-line BTC price appreciation projections.  

Here is the Old chart:

Start $              StartDate           % gain /time            Time              Coins/FU status   created: December 28, 2021
$110                    12/1/13               37.50%                  182.6              $2,000,000.00
208-week MA         
   Date                  208-MA Price                gain/time                                   Coins/FU status
   6/1/14               $151                                  $41                                            13,223.14049587
   12/1/14               $208                                  $57                                          9,616.82945154
   6/1/15               $286                                  $78                                            6,994.05778294
   12/1/15               $393                                  $107                                          5,086.58747850
   6/1/16               $541                                  $147                                             3,699.33634800
   11/30/16               $743                                  $203                                          2,690.42643491
   6/1/17               $1,022                                  $279                                          1,956.67377084
   11/30/17               $1,405                                  $383                                          1,423.03546970
   6/1/18               $1,932                                  $527                                          1,034.93488706
   12/1/18               $2,657                                  $725                                          752.67991786
   6/1/19               $3,654                                  $996                                          547.40357663
   12/1/19               $5,024                                  $1,370                                          398.11169209
   5/31/20               $6,908                                  $1,884                                          289.53577607
   11/30/20               $9,498                                  $2,590                                          210.57147350
   6/1/21               $13,060                                  $3,562                                          153.14288982
   11/30/21               $17,957                                  $4,897                                          111.37664714
   6/1/22               $24,691                                  $6,734                                          81.00119792
   11/30/22               $33,950                                  $9,259                                          58.90996212
   6/1/23               $46,681                                  $12,731                                          42.84360882
   12/1/23               $64,187                                  $17,506                                          31.15898823
   5/31/24               $88,257                                  $24,070                                          22.66108235
   11/30/24               $121,353                                  $33,096                                          16.48078716
   5/31/25               $166,861                                  $45,508                                          11.98602703
   11/30/25               $229,434                                  $62,573                                          8.71711057
   6/1/26               $315,472                                  $86,038                                          6.33971678
   11/30/26               $433,773                                  $118,302                                          4.61070311
   6/1/27               $596,438                                  $162,665                                          3.35323862
   11/30/27               $820,103                                  $223,664                                          2.43871900
   5/31/28               $1,127,641                                  $307,539                                          1.77361382
   11/30/28               $1,550,507                                  $422,865                                          1.28990096
   5/31/29               $2,131,947                                  $581,440                                          0.93810979
   11/30/29               $2,931,427                                  $799,480                                          0.68226166
   5/31/30               $4,030,712                                  $1,099,285                                          0.49619030
   11/30/30               $5,542,228                                  $1,511,517                                          0.36086567
   6/1/31               $7,620,564                                  $2,078,336                                          0.26244776
   11/30/31               $10,478,276                                  $2,857,712                                          0.19087110
   5/31/32               $14,407,629                                  $3,929,353                                          0.13881535
   11/29/32               $19,810,490                                  $5,402,861                                          0.10095661

Here is the revised chart:
Start $      StartDate         Gain/Time(days)           FU Status Goal              created: April 17, 2023
$46.41       6/1/14              182.6 (6 mos)                      $2,000,000
                  
Date          RL_Price            BTCBottom            %gain/time       %Rate∆        $Amnt∆        Coins/FU Status
6/1/14           $644                $46.41                       73.13%           92.00%         $33.94                 43,098.5887
11/30/14         $381               $80.34                       67.65%           92.50%         $54.35                 24,893.3841
6/1/15            $236                $134.69                    62.57%           92.50%         $84.28                 14,848.6240
12/1/15          $369                $218.98                    57.88%           92.50%         $126.75                 9,133.4460
5/31/16          $535                $345.72                    53.54%           92.50%         $185.10                 5,785.0152
11/30/16        $743                $530.82                    49.79%           93.00%         $264.31                 3,767.7571
5/31/17         $2,234               $795.13                    46.31%           93.00%         $368.20                 2,515.3223
11/30/17        $9,948               $1,163.32                  43.30%           93.50%         $503.68                 1,719.2112
6/1/18           $7,438               $1,667.01                  40.48%           93.50%         $674.85                 1,199.7552
11/30/18        $4,139               $2,341.85                  38.05%           94.00%         $891.16                 854.0245
6/1/19           $8,578               $3,233.01                  35.96%           94.50%         $1,162.61                 618.6181
11/30/19        $7,405               $4,395.62                  33.98%           94.50%         $1,493.76                 454.9980
5/31/20          $9,472               $5,889.38                  32.11%           94.50%         $1,891.30                 339.5943
11/30/20        $19,610               $7,780.68                  30.35%           94.50%         $2,361.24                 257.04692969
5/31/21          $35,497               $10,141.92                  28.68%           94.50%         $2,908.54                 197.20128982
11/30/21        $57,003               $13,050.46                  27.24%           95.00%         $3,555.53                 153.25130310
5/31/22          $29,817               $16,605.99                  25.88%           95.00%         $4,298.00                 120.43848914
11/30/22         $17,164               $20,903.99                  24.59%           95.00%         $5,139.90                 95.67552464
6/1/23                                       $26,043.89                  23.36%           95.00%         $6,083.52                 76.79345499
11/30/23                                       $32,127.40                  22.19%           95.00%         $7,129.32                 62.25215095
5/31/24                                       $39,256.73                  21.08%           95.00%         $8,275.81                 50.94668366
11/29/24                                       $47,532.53                  20.03%           95.00%         $9,519.43                 42.07644604
5/31/25                                       $57,051.96                  19.03%           95.00%         $10,854.60                 35.05576479
11/30/25                                       $67,906.56                  18.07%           95.00%         $12,273.79                 29.45223515
5/31/26                                       $80,180.35                  17.17%           95.00%         $13,767.61                 24.94376652
11/30/26                                       $93,947.96                  16.31%           95.00%         $15,325.04                 21.28838048
5/31/27                                       $109,273.00                  15.50%           95.00%         $16,933.66                 18.30278238
11/30/27                                       $126,206.66                  14.88%           96.00%         $18,775.49                 15.84702441
5/31/28                                       $144,982.15                  14.28%           96.00%         $20,705.93                 13.79480153
11/29/28                                       $165,688.09                  13.71%           96.00%         $22,716.57                 12.07087395
5/31/29                                       $188,404.66                  13.16%           96.00%         $24,797.87                 10.61544874
11/29/29                                       $213,202.53                  12.64%           96.00%         $26,939.30                 9.38075170
5/31/30                                       $240,141.83                  12.13%           96.00%         $29,129.50                 8.32841147
11/30/30                                       $269,271.34                  11.64%           96.00%         $31,356.43                 7.42745231
5/31/31                                       $300,627.76                  11.18%           96.00%         $33,607.54                 6.65274549
11/30/31                                       $334,235.31                  10.73%           96.00%         $35,869.99                 5.98380826
5/30/32                                       $370,105.30                  10.30%           96.00%         $38,130.76                 5.40386751
11/29/32                                       $408,236.06                  9.99%           97.00%         $40,797.47                 4.89912626
5/31/33                                       $449,033.53                  9.69%           97.00%         $43,528.37                 4.45401035
11/29/33                                       $492,561.90                  9.40%           97.00%         $46,315.48                 4.06040335
5/31/34                                       $538,877.38                  9.12%           97.00%         $49,150.40                 3.71141944
11/29/34                                       $588,027.79                  8.85%           97.00%         $52,024.35                 3.40119982
5/31/35                                       $640,052.14                  8.58%           97.00%         $54,928.27                 3.12474544
........
5/31/38                                       $1,013,573                  7.15%           97.00%         $72,455                       1.97321778
...........
11/29/43                                       $1,960,433                  5.27%           98.00%         $103,375                    1.02018295
.................
5/29/56                                       $5,639,679                  3.67%           99.00%         $206,870                      0.35463012

Here's my earlier description of the Fuck you status chart -created: December 28, 2021.

Because historically bitcoin has been so volatile and volatility seems to be one of bitcoin's ongoing guarantees into the future, I find it very problematic to attempt to use bitcoin's spot price to determine BTC portfolio value, and therefore, I have considered that the use of the 208-week moving average is going to be much more helpful in terms of valuing a BTC portfolio and lessening the likelihood of prematurely entering into fuck you status.  Of course, the 208-week moving average is a very conservative and quite a lagging indicator and usually is only met in extended bear markets or short term liquidation events.  The 104-week moving average or the 52-week moving average would be less conservative indicators, but more likely to be met more frequently.  As I type the update to this post on December 28, 2021, the 208-week moving average is approaching $19k, the 104-week moving average is approaching $30k and the 52-week moving average is around spot price ($48k).  

Historically, the 208-week moving average has gone up around 75% per year, and so if we project that out, we can see that the amount of BTC that we need to reach an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million to be getting small er and smaller.  Even though currently, it would require about 105 BTC to arrive at entry-level fuck you status, the below chart shows that by mid 2022 we may well only need 81 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status and in mid-2024 we may well need less than 22 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status.. and for sure if we project out the chart to mid-2029, we likely will ONLY need less than 1 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status by then.

[chart - edited out]

Of course, there are no guarantees, and since the 208-week moving average is a lagging indicator, we can monitor our progress towards reaching entry-level fuck you status and hopefully not conclude that we are in such entry-level fuck you status before we have accounted for BTC's likely ongoing volatility.

My current description of this latest prognosticated fuck-you status chart is contained in Opening post 3.

The beginning of getting involved in bitcoin does not need to include a lot of calculations since in the beginning, most people should have a bit of a ballpark idea about their cashflow versus their expenses in order to determine on a ballpark basis if they believe that they can afford to invest $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount per week into bitcoin.

Many of the calculations and looking into more details of your specific individual circumstances that include more specifically your finances and your psychology can be a kind of ongoing study that would then help any person to make more specifically individually tailored BTC accumulation strategies, targets and perhaps subsequent plans about BTC portfolio maintenance and liquidation - that likely would come later down the road, especially if someone might end up being in bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer or perhaps start to build their lives around making sure that they maintain a bitcoin balance.

So a point that frequently I like to make when it comes to bitcoin newbies is to "get the fuck started sooner rather than later," and work out the details as you go and while you are already starting to accumulate BTC, even if it might be $100 per week more maybe lower amounts such as $10 per week.. and then once you learn more about bitcoin and about your finances and psychology, it will likely inspire you to become more aggressive about your bitcoin accumulation..

No guarantees of anything of course, and each person is responsible for figuring out his/her BTC investment approach, including that most adults already engage in these kinds of investment behaviors/decisions in terms of making choices regarding how to spend their time, money and energies.. It is merely a matter of honing how (and if) bitcoin fits into what people already do....

Are you in^** or not?  or are you going to overly complicate the matter about the amount of your "in"-ness?  That's part of the reason I would suggest get the fuck started first, work out the details as you go, and you are the one responsible for your own investment choices, including if you choose to abstain from bitcoin... sucks to be you.  hahahahaha  

**Another thing that every bitcoin newbie has to figure out is that bitcoin is different from shitcoins, and I am not suggesting anyone gets involved in shitcoins.. but of course, people can do what they like, including failing and refusing to understand and appreciate that I am talking about bitcoin (not shitcoins) and there is a difference between bitcoin and shitcoins that might not be known at the time that any bitcoin newbie gets started in bitcoin, so part of personal responsibility is to attempt to learn the difference. and not to fuck up by getting distracted into something like shitcoin that someone like me, is not saying to get involved in distracting nonsense like that... Also, risk management is something that can be learned and honed along the way, but the fact that there is a need to concern ourselves with risk management, that does not mean that we should not get started as soon as we are able.. and to figure out and hone the details of the various ways to employ risk management along the way.

I am considering adding ideas from another post that I made today to the BTC accumulation portion of this thread.  

An attempt at a fair historical overview largely seems to establish that with the passage of time, especially if we look in 4-year increments, it seems to have been becoming more and more difficult to accumulate similar amounts of BTC, even with similar or inflation-adjusted (cost-of-living adjusted) larger amounts of capital.  

Edited: 

This post ties into these accumulation goal ideas in regards to how BTC accumulation goals might change over time, too.

Great investment tool we have here, i have read through some of the model @JayJuanGee outline here with indept knowledge and explanations and this thread serve as an educational tool in theoretical and analytical form that will aid anyone success in Bitcoin. Most newbies are feed with wrong information and this have lead many into making wrong investment decision.
 Knowledge is important and Bitcoin journey does not follow pattern so whenever one starts it need to be on the right note and having knowledge that can sustain you stability , and helping you make the right decision and taking calculated risk. I just dropped by to let @JayJuanGee know am one of his student on this thread.

If you have already tailored your BTC investment approach and figured out both your BTC accumulation targets and how you are going to get there, then surely you have advanced quite a bit towards making sure that you are in a comfortable place with how you are balancing your BTC allocations as compared with anything else that you might be investing into.

I am not trying to impose any one approach onto anybody, but to suggest various kinds of ways to think about investmenting into bitcoin - including where any of us might be at in such journey and where we might want to be.  

At some point, any of us may well start to consider that we have advanced beyond BTC accumulation and that we are more in a kind of maintenance stage and perhaps later down the road we might consider ourselves to have moved more into a liquidation stage.  

No two people are likely going to reach the exact same kinds of balances in terms of their various personal circumstances, and even if any of us might feel that we have our own portfolios figured out in terms of how our finances and psychology is affected, there may be events that happen in our lives or even movements of the BTC price (or our other assets/Macro factors) that cause us to question whether we might need to tweak our approach.. so in that regard, I doubt that these kinds of questions are completely resolved with anyone, and there may well be some points in our lives that we do not need to make very many changes for several years, but we likely would still need to look at our investment on a yearly basis or even a couple of times a year......

The BTC space has tended to be dynamic too, so we may well need to look at how we are storing our BTC, too - and if the BTC price has changed a lot, then our security concerns  may change too.. or if we are investing in BTC for 5-10 years or even longer, the first few years, we might not mind having some or all of our BTC held with third parties, but if our BTC holdings go up in value, we may well need to reconsider how we are holding our BTC holdings.. which also might include considerations of tracking which portions of our holdings might be spendable in what kinds of ways..

To me, it seems that not too many of us are going to be in a static place regarding how we are approaching our BTC investment, even if we might spend a decent amount of time in one of the stages or one aspect of one of the stages, and it can likely be good to share information with others in order to be able to assess whether we might already be in a good place or if we might consider making some changes based on changes in our own circumstances or maybe even changes in some of the risks that might be in the BTC space - including how others might be talking about changes in the space.

There might be guys who invested in bitcoin many years ago, 6, 8, 10 or more, but I would be concerned with trying to make sure that my memory will work very well if I have some coins that have been sitting for many years, and I have not interacted with the coins or even made sure that I still have access to them.

It is nice to hear that guys have worked out comfortable places with their BTC status, and some guys might get to a comfortable place in their BTC within months of getting started, and others might take 5 years or more of just ongoing investing into BTC before they start to feel that they are building themselves into a more comfortable BTC accumulation status.  Feel free to share more of your particulars to the extent any of them might be helpful here... and of course, you can choose how to frame your matters or even frame some matters into hypotheticals in order to not to necessarily disclose some of the OPSec and/or personal financial details that you would prefer to keep private.

It is definitely helpful for the newbies for sure and even veterans could learn something from it. I do not need it because I do just one simple thing, which is buy bitcoin when you have some money to spend, and then hold it as long as you possibly could. This is literally all I do and that is why it looks like I do not need any help at all.

I mean I needed help back in the day, my investment style was all around the place and it wasn't that good and this kind of topic would have been amazing for me. But nowadays it is not really needed as much and all I do is end up with a situation where I buy and hold and do nothing else which is quite frankly an easy way to get rich.

Nice to hear that you are reading some parts and getting some value out of it.. even if some parts might be putting you to sleep.. hahahaha

I understand that I will likely need to update some of my discussion areas in this thread to the extent that some of my ways of going over matters may have pertained to contemporary BTC price movements and attempts at assigning probabilities to BTC price direction (both in terms of quantity and time).

If you have any questions or comments regarding any of the areas that I have gone over (or anything else that you might consider to be related and/or relevant), then don't hesitate to post them.

this is what i love about @JayJuanGee all suggestions or all responses to comments written all have good points and also make sense, and i always check the comments every time i open this forum and i always stop by to check them which i think is a must.
and all that I do for lessons and learning by me even though sometimes I get a little bored reading it because it is too long but I still do it.

Edited June 26, 2022:  Added response to two tadamichi posts


Some of them are easier to grasp than others, and sometimes there can be some advantages in taking a microscope to anyone of them - even though it might not be necessary just to get started.  It's not good to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Hypothetically, let's say that this hypothetical person named Oliver just heard about bitcoin, and he concludes that it appears to be a pretty good investment just to get started and to maybe study the matter over the next couple of years and then decide if he wants to stay in bitcoin or not.  Oliver has a bit of an idea about himself, and he scribbles on a napkin and figures out that he already has an investment portfolio of about $50k, and he has about $8k in cash that he could invest in anything that he wants, and he has about $1k to $2k per month of extra cashflow coming in (extra means after his expenses.. and it is $1k to $2k because he knows that it varies, but he has not really sat down and plotted it out).  

Oliver is not really sure if he wants to make any lump sum investment into bitcoin yet, so he decides to invest $20 per week, and then reassess after a few months and maybe if he has time, he can dedicate some time to figuring out how he feels about bitcoin as compared to some of his other investments and also to project out some of his cash flows and look at his other investments, what he tends to spend his money on, and just how he feels about some of the details related to the various other investments that he has - because he has not really thought about some of those kinds of details very much.. even though he generally pays attention to live within his means so that he does not spend more than he makes.
 
Let's say Oliver is about 28 years old and has done various kinds of work and has some education, but has not really thought about his finances in any kind of detailed way (such as within the above areas), so in each area, he can delve into further detail and even study each of the areas while he is continue to buy $20 per week worth of bitcoin.  The more he studies and figures out each of the areas, the more he can potentially be deliberate about how he is investing and comparing different kinds of investments that he might have already made...he can think about what ishis timeline and why?  What would he like to attempt to accomplish at various points in his life (sure including financial angles).   His thinking about the matters in detail might not help him to learn as well as if he puts some various practices into effect that might cause some back and forth learning more about some of the skills that he has, details about himself and then making adjustments based on what he learns about himself (and also learning about the subject matter and various ways that planning and projecting forward could lead to different results).  Frequently we can learn more by putting our ideas into practice than merely thinking about them without taking any concrete actions.


I think that the experiences help to make the learning sink in better and even make people more curious about learning when they are actively interacting..


Sometimes you don't really know what you don't know until after you learn it, but that does not necessarily mean you need to try to learn everything.  There could be some focus, such as:  I am going to learn about this area now.. and then spend quite a bit of time learning about that area even though some areas may overlap, and then sometimes you might decide to get involved in a certain kind of work or hobby in order to develop a kind of skill... It could be reading, writing, math or even public speaking, but there may be a lack of interest to just sit down and read books on the topic of math.. but then if you prepare some charts or go through your finances to project your cashflow then you may spend quite a bit of time employing math while you are engaged in those other projects that are of interest to you.  Sure sometimes you can just get Excel to do the math for you, and there's no problem with that, but sometimes if you arrange the data in differing kinds of ways, you can try to figure out what would be the correct formula that you need to put in order to get the results that you would like to have displayed, and that's more interesting than just pure math (even though it may well include math in order to really figure out what you want to display in terms of your own information in your life).


If you set up various systems and you try to follow them, the extreme BTC price moves (or even not extreme) can sometimes help to show you what is your risk tolerance and also your abilities to not get emotional in regards to your responses to whatever might be happening.  Sometimes if you project various possible outcomes, you can attempt to measure if you are more attached to one outcome versus another outcome, and even consider h0w you might feel under certain scenarios and even adjust your own expectations in more realistic ways, as I tried to do in the chart outlining my expectations about price movements and the timeline for getting there.  It may not matter so much about whether you are more correct than not, but just to be able to recognize and appreciate that when you really attempt to grapple with how likely you believe one outcome or another to be, almost never are you going to arrive at 100% for a future result, and even if you look at the past, you might realize that you might not even be able to proclaim with 100% certainty with what caused x to happen, even though you can see that x did happen, so sometimes how certain we can be in regards to where we are at, how we got here and/or where we are going will partly have to do with how we frame the questions and present the information that we are striving to describe (whether we are ONLY trying to figure out that information or projections for ourselves or we might be trying to describe for others).

Your example of BTC price movement is a good one because there have been several occasions that I set my plans for the BTC price to go up or down, and then I planned what I would do at each increment that the BTC price went up, but when the BTC price went up faster than I expected, I largely ended up doing something close to the opposite of what I had already told myself to do, so in order for me to better learn about myself (and my emotions) from that experience, I had to go through with something like that and to actually have a system in place that I was attempting to follow in order to recognize and appreciate how I ended up reacting and to attempt to figure out whether I needed to fix my system or whether I needed to fix myself (and sometimes there is a little bit of fixing and tweaking of both going on in which tweaks can be made to both in order to cause more comfort.. but still might not result in total lack of emotions when something similar ends up happening again in the future, but there might have developed better ways to deal with similar situations and to be better prepared oneself psychologically and financially for those kinds of situations (and even extreme situations that could happen).


For sure, i know what you say is true.  We might lock in our plans about what to do for 5-10 years or more into the future, but sometimes short term happenings cause us to have to tweak what it is that we are doing and how we are going to get there.  Sometimes our goals change, but sometimes we might see that what we are doing is not getting us closer to our goals.. and I am not even saying that there are needs to be whimsical about it. because some of the longer term investments like bitcoin could have 3-5 going years of negative, but that might not mean that strategies would necessarily change in terms of buying $20 week or whatever the amount might be, but something positive or negative could happen in the interim that causes needs to adjust, and let's say that a certain job opportunity came up, and in the short term, it would cause a need to lower the $20 per week down to $10 per week, but down the road the amount would be be able to be raised to $100 per week.  There can be a variety of creative brainstorming about how to accomplish ongoing investment goals, but in the end, there could be a balancing of the trade offs that cause a tweak, and then might even cause another tweak because of some other further developments, including even getting a loan for a business or a real estate opportunity.. and maybe or maybe not  BTC funds are affected.  Those are choices within your discretion, and not everyone will balance out their preferences in the same way, and some BTC HODLers/Accumulators might have better results and some may have worse results based on the way they chose to allocate and to tweak their plans along the way.

Edited June 26, 2022:  Added the below part (response to two tadamichi posts)


For sure, there is a kind of balance that each of us do because when we don't know anything, then sometimes we cannot be sure about what we do not know, so for sure when we are younger, and even when we get into our teenage years, we are likely given more and more autonomy to make more and more important decisions for ourselves, and surely the stronger the skills and character that you have developed as a kid, then the more likely that you are going to be better at exercising good judgement in your teenage years - and for sure, there are likely to be transgressions too - and if we are looking at learning critical thinking skills, there are likely a lot of cultural differences both in terms of whether we learn critical thinking skills and maybe even if there might be healthy or not so healthy limits in regards to which areas in which we might be allowed to question. 

Sometimes also we might know what the words "critical thinking" means, but we may well have differing understandings about what that means in terms of trying to calculate who is telling the truth about what and is such "truths" based on facts and sound logic to reach reasonable conclusions and sometimes conclusions are absolute in terms of something like math and other times the conclusions might have some more leeway in terms of what values and beliefs make them true or kind of true or more likely to be true if applied for this group of people or in this situation.

There might be some ages that we are not even really capable of abstract thinking, and we can get better at various kinds of problem solving skills and surely some folks are better at these matters than others, and whether it is nature versus nurture, I am not completely sure even though I am pretty sure that we should be able to get better at developing our critical thinking skills and even recognizing that there are some areas in which we do not really know and we are relying on the expertise of others.  So, in that regard, sometimes we might give a lot of credence to some "experts" but as soon as we realize that they have loose connections with reality or sometimes they are lying or just getting facts or logic wrong, then we may well decide to give them less credibility or maybe give them credibility in some areas, but realize that they are not knowledgeable enough or they are lacking logic to be able to provide good information in regards to certain other topics. 

When we are a beginner at certain topics, we may well be able to learn from almost anyone as long as they are not providing us with bad information or teaching us bad habits, but as we get more advanced in that subject matter, we may well need more advanced teachers, and sometimes we may well not even be ready or able to learn the more advanced areas of some topics until we really build our basics first - and surely individuals have differing rates in which they are able to advance and some of that does have to do with their ability to focus or their interests, too.

Learning about the financial angles of bitcoin can be the same way.  Sure there may well be some needs to learn about some fundamental aspects of bitcoin just to kind of get some ideas about what it is and perhaps how it might be different than (and similar to) other technologies and relatedly how it might differ and be similar to some shitcoins, but then there is also the personal financial management angle, and surely none of us has to have all of our financial knowledge figured out before getting started or even to figure out the various ways to manage risk and to manage our psychology, so we can learn some of those skills and even learn by getting burnt, but if we are smart enough, we might be able to figure out the difference between which ares we are learning and maybe to employ less capital/value while we are learning and to perhaps be able to increase the amounts of value that we put at risk as we learn about ourselves and our finances. We also might learn how to develop certain kinds of ways of looking at financial information in different ways and being able to look at absolute amounts and/or look at percentages, and to figure out where we might attempt to learn more by looking at the same data in different kinds of ways and some of those different ways of looking at the information might be helpful for us to figure out ourselves and our intended strategies, and sometimes, we might figure out that we spun the information in a way that really was not helpful in our being able to understand the information better or to understand our own psychology or financial circumstances better.



I don't claim to understand all the different ways that leverage or margin trading or other various more sophisticated financial tools might be employed to hedge BTC bets in either direction, and the general approach that I attempt to preach to folks is to attempt to learn and employ more basic techniques first, and the fact that bitcoin appears to be one of the greatest asymmetric bets that we have ever seen in terms of fundamentals that is widely available to anyone in the world (sure some have easier access than others in terms of having the internet and having some basic knowledge of how bitcoin works), it does not seem to be necessary to employ risky practices in order to potentially become rich as fuck just by taking a somewhat modestly aggressive approach to bitcoin and just letting time work for you.  Of course, there are no guarantees either, but if you invest 4-10 years or longer, or even have an investment timeline of 20-30 years, you are likely going to be much better off to have been getting some kind of early stake in bitcoin and building on it.

No matter when you employ leverage, you are likely adding some front-side risk, but the leverage that you employ might still be prudent - especially if you do something more simple such as getting a loan for 2 years or 4 years, and you still can be advantaged by getting the loan as long as you have ways to pay the loan if the BTC price moves against the direction that you had expected.  Maybe an example might help?

Let's say for example when BTC prices were bouncing between $33k and $48k for most of the first 4 months of this year, you concluded that anywhere in that price range would likely be a good price point to buy BTC, so you were very bullish about bitcoin, but you did not necessarily feel good about your cashflow to be able to DCA into BTC, so instead of DCA'ing into bitcoin, you concluded that it would be a good time to front load into bitcoin instead of relying upon your cashflow to DCA for the next 2 years.

In late March and early April you investigated into the matter and you found out that you could get a loan for $10k that would have a 6% per year interests rate, and the total would be due at the end of 2 years, so if you calculate the whole matter out, and you decided to get the loan and to do a lump sum BTC investment at $40k which would get you 0.25 BTC in early April 2022.  You realize that the loan is costing you about $600 for the two years (making payments, the interest is added on on a monthly basis so it lowers through the period), so you figured that the odds were going to be pretty good that the BTC prices were going to be higher than $42.4k which would be your break even costs for the loan and the cost of the loan.  So surely, you have to make payments of about $441 per month in order to service the loan, but you still decide to take the chances and buy the BTC at $40k.

Well we see in the short-term BTC prices have gone down, so as long as you have enough money to service the loan, you have not engaged in an unreasonable bet (even if you ended up being wrong about whether you might have been able to buy cheaper at a later date). You are engaging in different kinds of leverage if you have to put up collateral including if you don't have enough collateral to cover if the BTC prices go below certain price points.  So there are ways to structure leverage in more reasonable and less risky ways, but there still is likely going to be some risk that you end up NOT being correct, and you would have been better off just DCA buying into the matter or waiting to buy on dips and a lot of ways in which various other combination of strategies might have played out better, but there are also scenarios in which the BTC price could have gone up and you ended up getting the BTC at the lowest price that they would ever be again and you made a calculation to front load your anticipated cashflow (and to pay loan servicing fees) to potentially profit from the BTC prices going up.

Of course, some folks are able to negotiate better loan terms than others in terms of cost of the loan and how it is paid, and maybe instead of paying both interest and principle, they might ONLY have to pay interest which makes the loan way less costly to service, but requires a lump sum payment at the end of the loan period.  There are trade offs and surely I am not against using leverage so long as it is reasonable and for sure individuals are going to measure reasonableness, risks and even cost vs benefits in differing ways in which some ways of calculating and looking at the matter are more likely to pay off than others - and sometimes it may well be not whether you ended up being correct or not, but just whether you employed a reasonable strategy that had good chances for a payoff without putting much if any of your actual principle at risk (actually some people do not mind putting their principle at risk, and I personally do not tend to work my financial strategies in that kind of a way, whether we are referring to bitcoin or other kinds of assets/investments that I have).


For sure, some strategies (or available options) are more risky than others, and sometimes if you want to get some better ideas about how to make the trade offs, you might try to employ some of those kinds of tools.  Of course, I recommend getting your basics down first, and then building an investment portfolio, but if you have built an investment portfolio that has reached a decent size, then you might take a small amount and practice with some of those different kinds of financial instruments, and surely some of them have minimums, and maybe you will go through some assessments and decide that some of them are too complicated for you, or the amount of a loan is 12% per year or 20% per year, and you cannot justify getting a loan at those amounts.  Oh, and some of the loans might have a lower rate, but they require you to pay the "service fee" that is based on the total interest up front rather than on a monthly basis, and if you are paying all of the interest up front, you are being deceived into paying a higher rate than if it were calculated each month at 1/12 of the annual rate.. and sure compounding can be daily or quarterly, so there are various ways of calculating interest rates and how they apply including sometimes the lender has rights to change the rates, so as long as you understand the terms, you can at least calculate if the cost of the loan that you are receiving is worth it.. and surely some folks can negotiate better loan terms, too.


Well let's go by your forum registration date and for calculation purposes attempt to make this matter easier, and hypothesize that you started buying BTC prior to registering on the forum, and hypothesize that you have been buying BTC for 1 year.

There are a lot of ways that you could have approached the matter, and I am not even really proclaiming that there is any exact correct way, except perhaps that each of us should attempt to figure out the various BTC accumulation methods that are available and to figure out which one we believe works best for us and our personal situation.

In terms of accumulation, you could have employed DCA, buying on dips and lump sum.  You could have also fucked around with trading too... which as I said, I do not recommend until you build up your stash first, but sometimes people come into bitcoin and already have a decent sized investment portfolio and they might even have trading experience so they might even default into a trading approach.

Of course, if someone invested BIG a year ago (even in the mid $30ks), they might get really nervous when the BTC price drops around 50% from their average cost per BTC, and if you came into BTC a year ago, but you really were not sure about it, so either you kind of waited around or you took a real whimpy approach, you may well get excited to see the BTC prices drop because you were not sure about whether to buy at those higher prices, but when they drop you might decide to employ a more aggressive BTC buying plan. Some other people might have had reservations about BTC, but then when the BTC price drops, they recognize it as a scary situation, and it causes them to stop buying.

I am not going to attempt to suggest that anyone should have any kind of mindset, and they are free to assess the situation in accordance with their own researching into the matter, and even if they want to believe mainstream media or listen to banking and government officials who tell you that everything is going to be fine and everything is going to go back to how it used to be, then that is their choice regarding whether to get into bitcoin and how much to buy.

At the same time, I have no problem suggesting to no coiners or low coiners to get the fuck off of zero, and as a starting point they should consider an investment into bitcoin in the range of 1% to 25% of their investment portfolio, and if they are whimpy and skeptical, then sure o.k whatever, invest towards the 1% area, and if they are more bullish about bitcoin, then gravitate towards the higher end of the range, but in the end, where they choose to target is their own choice, and don't blame me if it does not work out because how much you invest and whether you invest is up to you, but I still suggest to get to at least 1%, even if very skeptical, but ultimately it is their responsibility whether they even do it.  Another thing is that after looking into the BTC matter for a while, individual tailoring could cause some folks to be even more aggressive than my 25% recommendation, and I don't have any problem if people become even more aggressive if they believe that their circumstances warrant it, but surely we can imagine people who have a shorter time horizon (such as less than 4 years) and they need to be more liquid and who may well need to be way more conservative in terms of their investing in risky investments - but there still might be an aggressive amount that still might make sense in their circumstances. 


For sure, leverage is a more advanced technique and better to employ basics first and get comfortable with basics before getting into more advanced techniques.


hahahaha

I am glad that you did not take the strength of my response personally.  Ever since I have been into bitcoin, I have been reading and responding to gold shills, and for sure, I am not completely against gold, but surely gold has issues.

A very powerful aspect of bitcoin, is that any of us can take immediate possession, because we might not be sure about if our bitcoin might get taken away from us or blocked from our ability to withdraw it if we hold it with a third-party.  Of course, some people are still going to hold their bitcoin with third parties, and even contract away their rights to take possession of their bitcoin, but I also believe with the passage of time, there is going to be some raised consciousness about some of the power that exists when having control over your own bitcoin keys, and we have seen examples where 3rd parties can become abusive - including the example of even BIG ass players, such as Russia, having their funds locked.. same would be true if their value was held in gold outside of their jurisdiction..

Not that any of us has $100 million to move around, but good luck moving $100 million in gold, but with bitcoin click click.. its done been moved and did not have to ask anyone or employ any guards or worry about an ice probe getting stuck up your butt to see if the gold happens to be there... can even deny having the bitcoin and it is more difficult to deny having that whole warehouse and what happens to be in it?  whoops.. shit they found it. 

Was not easy to keep prying eyes from noticing the existence of a whole warehouse... and I am not going to presume that anyone needs to know how many bitcoin that I might happen to have, even if it is ONLY 0.0063 BTC, or 0.063 BTC, or 0.63 BTC or it might happen to be 6.3 BTC, or maybe 630 BTC or perhaps 6,300 BTC or some other amount. or even none. l am not going to presume anyone needs to know except me, and maybe some other peeps that I choose to tell.. and do I have a warehouse that needs to be maintained for that? nope.  Does the quantity need to be held by someone? nope.. Are there are a variety of ways that it could be held and some ways are more flexible than others?  yep... hopefully some of the ways that BTC can be held will get easier and more user-friendly.. but there are already quite a few easy and user-friendly ways... and various trade-offs too.


I am glad that you feel that you are in a good place on a personal level.  For sure, there is a lot of power in having a decently long timeline for your BTC investment, and surely not everyone has the luxury of having a long timeline, so each of us should attempt to appreciate that the BTC investment circumstances of other peeps is not the same as our own and some folks may have gotten themselves into their own pickle or even sometimes they might not even be to blame for where they are at because they might have had employed reasonable and prudent risk management and still gotten into a pickle, somehow... , and of course, you should be attempting to set up your own BTC investment circumstances in such a way that you are not getting stressed out about them, even if matters (such as BTC price performance) might be going contrary to your preferences and expectations.


Yes.. that makes a lot of sense.. and I agree.  The money system is so fucking unfair, and sometimes it can really piss some of us off when we consider how normal people are getting screwed and for sure some people are getting screwed worse than others out of no fault of their own.. and yeah bitcoin could provide some recourse - and in that sense, some people might not even be able to invest into bitcoin $10 per week because they are so screwed in their normal circumstances, they have no access to credit or banking.,. but it still may well allow them to be better off if they are able to scramble up some amount of money and be able to put into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer. even if only $10 per month... and of course, some people have more difficult access to being able to even feel that they could create a 4-10 year investment or longer and not have to break into it, which is probably not a good idea, but some people have very shitty circumstances even when they may well be trying to do everything in reasonable and practical ways.. but yeah, the incentive to gamble and take risks might naturally flow from having shitty odds when otherwise trying to fit into normal ways of earning and saving money.



Ok.. I had not realized that you were making that point.  Yes.  I agree that the rest of the bitcoin HODLers benefit from lost coins/lost keys.


I think only the HODLers benefit, and it can take a while to know that the lower supply is causing the value of everyone else's coins to go up.. it's a bit subtle but only provides value to HODLers in proportion to their BTC holdings, but would make coins more expensive to NO coiners.. and maybe in difficult to measure ways  because if I were to have 2.1 BTC, then I lost the keys, even though it seems like a lot of coins to me, it would only cause the BTC supply level to go down by 0.0001%, and of course, if access to 2,100 BTC had been lost, then the total supply level would go down by 1,000x more, which would be 0.01%... but I still doubt that it is any great thing to advocate that people lose their BTC, even though we realize that over time, it is likely that quite a large number of BTC will likely end up getting lost forever.. so probably there are more than 4.2 million coins already lost which is 20% of the total coins that would ever come into existence... and we likely realize that the longer that bitcoin exists, the more importance that people will place on trying to preserve their coins or to pass them down, but I have heard of quite a few folks who do not really have good/solid successor plans for their BTC..


Fair enough.


And, I believe that is why we can proclaim that we have a certain level of confidence that we are in the early stages of the largest wealth transfer in history, and a very large number of people either do not realize it, or they believe that bitcoiners are living in a fantasyland in regard to those kinds of claims.  Whether true or not, it would likely not be a bad thing for nocoiners to get some kind of stake in bitcoin, just in case the bitcoiners might be right.. and actually a lot of the no coiners remain resistant to getting onboard to bitcoin because they falsely believe that they are only feeding into a ponzi scheme and that they are not going to personally benefit from buying bitcoin.. so blah blah blah. they are overly priced and they end up being dumb fucks because they fail/refuse to act and fail to get the fuck off of zero.. and sorry to denigrate no coiners and low coiners because they are likely being completely reasonable based on their own lack of knowledge and fears of the unknown and suspicions of folks trying to scam them. yet even if they are completely reasonable. .they are only screwing themselves by not getting started (get off zero) sooner rather than later.


Thanks.. yes. it is good to have some back and forth, and sometimes I still wonder how helpful it is for me to repeat some of the ideas.. .and I suppose that was part of the reason that I created this thread.. but at the same time, I was striving to put the main ideas into the first 5 posts of the thread - even though sometimes I have to go back and flesh out some of the ideas in a better way, too.. and some of the ideas related to price do tend to have lacking of evergreen-ness.

Edited June 26, 2022:  Added response to two tadamichi posts

That’s a good idea actually.

True, this shouldn’t be underestimated.

Amen.

I just got a little off topic, sorry for this, yeah im still in accumulation dcaing and buying dips. I was able to double my holdings during this crash. No cash flow issues whatsoever at the moment, and i plan ahead to invest. There’s no possible scenario in which i would need to get my holdings out, because i account for this beforehand.

It was off topic, i meant when the money is this inflationary, it kinda makes it necessary for people to invest or gamble, because otherwise they already lost, if they do nothing. So Bitcoin could actually help here in the long term, because it removes this necessity for the average person.

Yes, but think about government subsidies work now, they basically pick a small group that they will be giving money to. It never reaches everyone and most of the time doesn’t reach the people who really need it, but still makes everyones money worth slightly less, if they used the printer for this. Doesn’t lost coins kinda work like a subsidy that is distributed perfectly equal? Everyone actually benefits from this, on a societal level this could mean a lot, because these are challenges that weren’t solved yet. But note this is off topic and just relevant for a Bitcoin standard far into the future. And it doesn’t negate the points you made, they’re correct.

Yeah, the advantage here is the longer they wait out, the less coins will be left for them, removing more of their influence in the new system. The other advantage is that the old system disadvantaged so many people, that it plays into Bitcoins hand, there’s no need for them to stay loyal to the people that exploited them and for a system that leaves them with nothing.

Bringing justice will always take work, Bitcoin doesn’t remove that burden from us, but this is the first time the money problem can actually be fixed, this is huge.

We can make a cut here, because this is off topic now, thanks for the help tho Jay, your advice is rock solid.

Yes, everyone is different in regards to how much they are able to put into something like BTC on a regular basis in order to grow and BTC price changes can affect both the on the spot valuations regarding how much BTC is worth versus other allocations, which can affect target levels in which accumulators/HODLers will choose whether to reallocate or just let their BTC continue to ride without reallocating it.

For example, if you already have a decently sized investment portfolio in various other assets at the time that you come into BTC, then you may well feel less compelled to either reallocate it, so even if investment fund managers and traditional financial consultants/advisors might have obligations to either reallocate/rebalance or to advice clients to reallocate/rebalance, individuals have no such mandates (or guidelines) and they can choose in regards to their own variables whether they believe that it would be prudent to reallocate/rebalance and upon which conditions they would reallocate/rebalance if they were to choose to do so (including if there might be tax consequences for such rebalancing).

Yes, some folks might be able to dedicate $100 or more per/week towards BTC accumulation/buying, and others might be in positions in which they are only able to invest $10 or less per week, so it could take a decent amount of time to reach various BTC accumulation goals/target levels or even to trigger reallocation concerns.  

Changes in personal circumstances including cashflow or even other personal matters could change how aggressive any BTC accumulator/holder might feel that they can be, and changes in BTC spot price affecting valuation of BTC previously accumulated or costs per unit of present/future BTC could affect how aggressive any BTC HODLer/accumulator feels that s/he can be, and sometimes the first feelings/impressions might not be the correct ones, such as fear when the BTC price goes down might inspire less buying rather than either continuing to buy the same amount or even stepping up some of the buys (if that might seem prudent or possible), and the opposite feelings might happen when the BTC price goes up there might develop feelings to buy more because of feelings of wealth effect.. and that might not be the best approach.. including that there might be times that it is prudent to shave off a bit of profits (maybe not too much) when the BTC price goes up in extreme amounts in short periods of time.

It seems to me that the longer that any of us are employing the tactics of BTC accumulation under whatever system that we have established for ourselves, the more clear it may well become for us to figure out ways to tailor our own strategies and approach to account for our gained experiences and to attempt to be measured (rather than emotional) in the ways that we go forward whether we choose to continue BTC accumulation on our same path or if we might believe it a good way forward to tweak our approach in any kind of significant way.  

There is no one right answer.. even if we might plot out on paper (or on an Excel spreadsheet) that we could do x, y or z and we can project out how those various courses of action (or different paths) might play out for the various possible directions of the BTC price.  If we have an Excel spreadsheet we can duplicate the tabs and then change a few variables within or even set up the Excel spreadsheet in a way that we change one reference box, such as projected percentage of price change, changes in new allocation/buy amounts over time or even changes in the timeline - though I usually like to preestablish the timeline, but sometimes there could be reasons to attempt to assess based on weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly or multiple years, and sometimes more details can be helpful and other times more details might get in the way - depending on what you might be trying to assess.

In essence, there seem to be ways to attempt to plot out our own possible course of action that contributes to our having some steady plans in which we already know at which points we might change our plan.. or if we plan to ONLY reassess at various points.. so there may be ways that we lock ourselves into a plan but also have various points that we might have pre-authorized ourselves to reassess, and none of our locking in prohibits us from totally changing the plan at any time that we would like or reassessing at a point other than we had determined previously, yet frequently if we establish a plan and then we consider a variety of circumstances and justifications for our plan, we may well realize that some new information might have caused us to reconsider, but that the changes in circumstances are not sufficiently strong enough to motivate us to change the plan in any kind of meaningful way.. or maybe the changed circumstances only justify small changes in our approach rather than major changes.  


I personally consider that BTC serves as a hedge against to the dollar in a similar way that gold had done historically, so I believe that gold is not necessary, and I mentioned that kind of example of gold in order to attempt to show a kind of extreme preparation that someone might want to consider for an edge preparation in order to attempt to make the point that if your extreme case for using gold is not very likely to play out then you should not be allocating very much of your value into it.... sure maybe it is not zero for some folks even though gold may well be a zero allocation for others (such as yours truly) who considers that to a vast extent bitcoin serves the same purpose, but even serves such purpose better than gold (by about 1,000x - even though not currently reflected in the current BTC/au price).

I will concede that there might be places in the world in which it is easy to get in and out of gold, but why not just use dollars for that?  If you are already in the practice of using gold then maybe you find it to be sufficiently liquid.. and not without other of its own various problems including its pretty long historical manipulation and then some variations in how to divide it or verify it and how many shop s take it (again there might be regional differences).. My gut reaction is to just say "fuck gold", but I can see why some folks might be somewhat comfortable hedging with it, if they are used to it and if they believe some of their liquidation avenues are not going to dry up at the points when they might be needed.

In regards to bitcoins volatility or potentially being forced to sell at the bottom, there are ways to attempt to prepare for that just with a BTC/USD pair.. but of course you should attempt to customize in ways that make you comfortable, too.. also depending on what stage you are in regarding accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.
 

If you have a cashflow that comes in dollars, then you choose how much BTC to buy on a regular basis, and hopefully you have projected out your expenses, so you have your cashflow in order, so you never have to sell BTC that is at a time that is other than your own choosing.  If your timeline has also been projected out to be 4-10 and years or more, then why do you give any shits if the BTC price has dipped, except that such dips allows you to accumulate more.. because hopefully you are not overinvesting and relying upon BTC for your regular liquidity.. if you are no longer in accumulation stage and you reached either maintenance stage or liquidation stage, then surely your calculations would be different. but hopefully if you are in liquidation stage you are planning ahead too and you are in sufficient profits by then that you are not getting caught in short-term pickles regarding your cashflow concerns.


Fuck gold.  I do not really get distracted into gold discussions.. even if in your region it might be liquid.. it does not seem to be very liquid in a lot of places and has other issues.. so I consider it as mostly a distraction to overall bigger issue (rather than edge case) points that I am wanting to discuss here.


I don't consider gold to be helpful for most people in most situations.. . so yeah try moving around $100k value in gold, storing it, verifying it, securing it from govts or private actors and other issues.  Fuck gold.


How come I am starting to feel that I am getting distracted into off-topic considerations?  

If you are having some considerations regarding how liquid you are - then you you should be able to manage those kinds of considerations and figure out how much you want to allocate to bitcoin - which may well change over time.. so if you are building your BTC portfolio and you are also building a business or several businesses, then those kinds of competing considerations are going to create demands on your cashflow and maybe you are ONLY able to invest smaller amounts into bitcoin because you have some other goals and projects that are taking away from your cashflow abilities to buy bitcoin.. so I am not even suggesting to be fucking around considering using BTC as a kind of float for yuour business whil you are still in the BTC accumulation stages; however  sure once you  reach maintenance or liquidation stages, then you whld  have already figured out ways to use btc as a float for businesses in those stages.  

In other words, I am not suggesting getting in and out of bitcoin while in BTC accumulating stages.. and surely many folks are stuck in BTC accumulation stages for a long time before they even get to maintenance or liquidation stages/ concerns... or at least that is the approach that I believe that I am suggesting through the various angles and topics of this thread..  It seems to me that if you get through achieving your BTC accumulation target levels, then it may well become more clear regarding how to start to employing maintenance and liquidation strategies, but I doubt it is good for me to assume that you (tadamichi) have even reached accumulation goals in btc yet, right?


If I understand what you are saying, then surely there is a lot of variance in companies  and there is a lot of centralized points of failure, and I am not really very clear about how you get to the "force to invest" angle, unless you are talking about governmental bailouts of companies and banks when they fuck up.


We might be considering these kinds of potential benefits of bitcoin to society differently too.  I consider bitcoin to benefit society as a whole because it brings fair accounting and disincentivizes debasing the money through printing, so those kinds of benefits are distributed to everyone.. but bitcoins themselves are not distributed to everyone except that anyone can buy bitcoin and even in small fragments, and at the same time, the earlier actors are going to be able to buy more bitcoin at a lower price than the those who come to bitcoin later. though everyone will still benefit from the fair system. even though there is some advantages towards becoming aware of the bitcoin phenomena earlier and taking actions to start to accumulate it earlier.. because satoshis are quite likely to continue to get more and more expensive with the pasage of time..

bitcoin is designed to pump forever, but likely the volatility (including the exponential growth upwards hockey stick portion of the s-curve) is going to continue to go down in percentages the more and more of the worlds population gets into bitcoin and as more and more of the world's monetary value continues to flow into bitcoin.


Sure. I agree with all of this.  There are some segments of society who disproportionately advantage from the various current unfairnesses that are built into the overall debt and money printing system, and even though the whole society is going to advantage from having more money, those who are receiving disproportionate benefits will perceive themselves to be losing from the new fair system and are likely to fight the new system more.. even though probably if push comes to shove, they do not really have any solid argument against the new system except that they had been getting disproportionate advocates to the old system..  They can still advantage from the new system, if they reallocate into bitcoin, but they will probably fight for a decent amount of time before reallocating into bitcoin... but everyone is likely going to be forced to reallocate into bitcoin sooner or later, even i f it could take 50-200 years to play out.


Well it does surely seem that bitcoin provides for more potential sustainability in the future and it is already here in the present and spreading some of its ongoing benefits and love (in a neutral way) to the world already and has been doing so for more than 13 years, even though its circle of adoptions and potential adoption was quite small in the first few years.

So yeah bitcoin seems to provide quite strong potential for peaceful transition to incentivize fewer monetary-related injustices.  I doubt that bitcoin is going to resolve all injustices, and maybe not even resolve all monetary-related injustices, but surely it seems to be a step in the right direction that happens to be quite ingenuous at the same time.  In other words, it seems quite amazing that the ongoing potential for increasing and advancing sound and fair money exists and also allows for potential for ongoing peaceful further transition into such system of increased adoption and increased usage too (it has already happened, continues to happen and likely will continue to happen, too... if you  know the Ron Paul meme "it's happening".. hahahahaha.. it is already happening.. hahahaha);.. So for sure it seems that bitcoin makes better incentives in the world around money matters.

There’s nothing i disagree with here, you rounded everything up nicely.

I think this one of the best lessons to be teached, and should be counted under having the right principles. To many people wanna outsource their decisions to others, but then loose the ability to make good decisions themselves, when it matters.

K let’s put it like this, if someone uses leverages they also have to follow the principles traders have, contrary to hodlers who can ignore some things, for example cutting losses, don’t add infinite collateral. Then it’s also about how much leverage was used, a few % of the portfolio, isn’t that risky, if you cut losses. Accepting losses is one of the mindsets that needs to be deployed here. I’m not a fan of leverage at all for most people, especially if the whole plan consisted of just one direction, like you said. The 200 wma was a nice indicator, but if the strategy failed they gotta cut, and never make all of your portfolio dependent on leverage.

This can be a lesson for everything in life, we can’t just put everything into boxes, we also gotta check how things are actually done.


The last part cracked me up ahahhahah, but you hit the nail on the head here. To me strong principles implied having the right principles, a mix of bad principles and stubbornness couldn’t be worse. And maybe there needs to be the right balance too, like everything in life. Enjoy it and have your shit together, is probably the strongest combination.

Initially I used this post as a Bump: because I want to avoid having my responses getting merged by the admins - because each of my responsive posts are very long..

I concede that this post no longer fits the proper/technical definition of "Bump" because I don't want to delete it, move it, edit it, or merge it.. and I hope (request @admins) that the consecutive post can stay (this time) without being merged, moved, edited or deleted..

As a self-critical expression:  "Fuck, I have to figure out some kind of way to slap my lil selfie and to stop responding with a novel in each of my responsive posts."  I'm trying to be like the horse Boxer in Animal Farm.  "I will try harder."


It is quite likely that there are a lot of overlapping ways that terms can be used, and likely when I am trying to proclaim a preference to aim for investing and to minimize or exclude gambling practices, I am attempting to suggest various ways to attempt to approach bitcoin investing in ways that are meant to have a longer time frame (such as 4-10 years or longer) and also to not be taking undue chances to make short-term bets or otherwise engage in practices that and putting capital/principle at risk.

I am not really intending to talk about edge cases in which some of the concepts of investing and gambling might overlap, because ultimately anyone can end up in an edge case kinds of a situation, and surely guys have discretion to make adjustments that might violate the preferred practices - yet at the same time, if there is an attempt to talk about general practices, then we would attempt to talk about some of the broader principles and practices and if there is success applying the broader principles and practices, then maybe edge cases might come to play under some kinds of scenarios and I might not even have any answers regarding how to deal with some of the edge case things that might come up anyhow because I am attempting to suggest some systems that are meant to have more general applicability..

Also if guys apply the various general principles that I discuss for long enough and establish their stack in BTC or meet other personal BTC accumulation goals, then some of the answers to other kinds of questions may well come into place or at least become more apparent because ultimately any investment practice should be carried out in such a way that it becomes personally owned and not following some suggestions of a somewhat random person on the internet.

Maybe I am repeating myself but the mere fact that someone is speculating on the future price of an asset does not cause that to be gambling merely because they might get it wrong.  In other words, there seems to be a kind of element in investing that involves attempting prepare, plan and  account for risks (and alternative scenarios) better than a gambler who has higher reliance on luck rather than having a plan that works for a broader variation of circumstances.  


I mostly agree that employing leverage that fails to account for extreme scenarios that could happen does seem to rise to the level of gambling rather than investing, so there might not be anything wrong with employing leverage as long as there might be plans to deal with extreme scenarios that could happen (which probably just means not to over-leverage, which might be easier said than done because there likely were some of the leveraged payers who said that they had not been over-leveraged because the BTC price does not tend to go below the 200-week moving average..anyhow, you can see where this is going, no?  Maybe if they were playing margin, then an investor might have a plan for if the BTC price goes up and a plan for if the BTC price goes down, they would not ONLY have a plan for one price direction.;.. a gambler might have a plan for only one direction and/or an insufficient hedge for if the opposite happens).


It seems to me that the difference regarding investing versus gambling for owning part of a company might relate to how much due diligence that you did before making your decision, and maybe even the tolerance of risky versus safe practices within the business can make a difference between if the part ownership of the business would fall into the category of investing versus gambling.  For example, you could have everything perfectly set up in the business, but if the business is engaging in some kind of risky practices such as something illegal (even though it does not need to engage in such risky/illegal practices in order to make a profit and to fulfill the various investment targets), then that way of carrying out the business might start to fall more into something more like gambling rather than investing.

You should be able to imagine business versus gambling approaches with the fitting of a car for racing too. there could be ways in which the behavior is reckless and ill though you (which would be more like gambling) and behaviors that are more systematic, and maybe even with long-term thinking that might fit more into a kind of an investing approach to the car.


I doubt that strong principles make a difference because it ends up most likely relying on luck if the principles are not focused in a kind of productive way that preserves and builds principle/capital rather than consuming it and just not really having any kind of meaningful plan that is a bit more systematic about both building and not losing capital and having plans that accounts for a variety of scenarios (and learning along the way), so the difference between investing versus gambling likely relates to having the right kinds of principles rather than merely having strong principles.  

For example, maybe I have strong principles that I am going to party like a wild animal and meet a lot of girls.. so I am going to have a lot of fun and I already know that the girls love me, so I am very popular until I run my whole life (and potential opportunities to build) into the ground.. but the whole time, I had strong principles and a lot of energy and charisma in regards to my philosophy and people liked me because I was confident, popular and full of energy. but I was not really building or engaging in good risk management either.. but I had a lot of fun during that whole time in my 20s and into my early 30s. and maybe even made a lot of money while assuming that the money would keep coming in, so I continued to consume it.. but by the time I reached 35, I had not really developed any skills beyond just having fun, my system of pushing boundaries all of the time strong principles was not working anymore like it used to work back in the good ole days. and my energy levels are not like what they used to be, either.  I lived in a lot of nice houses, and I even tried to save for my own house several times, but things came up.  I went on a lot of good trips, and some of them even involved some business deals, too. but they did not really pan out. even though I kept busy and I had strong principles the whole time too including that I told everyone that I was going to be rich some day (and people seemed to believe me). but I never really ever stayed focus on building anything . including my own skills beyond being able to party with the best of the.. and bouncing from one deal to the next.


There are possibly systematic ways to play large numbers too, if you have an edge and you are looking for specific things when you go into 100 companies.. so maybe going through 100 companies allows you to screen down to 5 on some kind of a criteria that you have developed.. . . but yeah, if you are lacking focus and you do not have a system, then that probably would be more like gambling.

First of all, I am glad that you (Hamza2424) had quoted the earlier post of LegendaryK - because I was planning on responding to that post, but it appears that LegendaryK deleted his/her post.  

I am going to respond to each of the above ideas in the order presented, and for sure, there can be a lot of reasonable ways that any of us might choose to balance out our own creation and following of various sell parameters, and those sell parameters which may well not be locked in stone - so they can vary from person to person and also may vary in terms of any person's own assessments of his/her BTC portfolio allocations and what purposes s/he expects his/her bitcoin allocation to be serving for him/her.


For me, I have always considered me entrance into bitcoin as an intended longer term investment, so when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my thinking was that I should be attempting to consider my bitcoin investment timeline to be 1 to 2 years or longer, which would largely mean that any time that I had injected more money into BTC whether it was through dollar cost averaging (DCA), buying on dips or lump sum investing, the timeline for each of those injections of more value should be considered to be 1-2 years or longer.  

These days, I consider bitcoin to have a quite a bit stronger investment thesis as compared to where it was in late 2013, so because of that, I have largely adjusted my idea of minimum investment timeline to be 4-10 years or longer.

For sure, each person needs to decide for himself/herself regarding timeline considerations, and no one should consider that s/he is completely locked into having to stay in bitcoin for the timeline that s/he has outlined for him/herself as his/her minimum investment timeline.   Nonetheless establishing a minimum timeline may well help for establishing an acceptable framework and a kind of guide in respect to how to think about the investment into bitcoin, so even to end up cutting the timeline short there might well need to be certain things that would have to happen to trigger such cutting short - such as certain level of profits had been reached (kind of reallocation triggers) or over accumulation of BTC had ended up happening or maybe even emergency circumstances happen that force a dipping into the BTC funds.  

By the way, when I mention the possibility of emergency circumstances, I am not suggesting that anyone should be engaging in gambling (or careless risky) behaviors with his/her cashflow/ expenses that end up causing/contributing to the increased likelihood that emergencies would end up happening.  With any investments we make, we should already be figuring out quite a few ways to make sure that we are even able to invest because we need to have our shit in some kind of order before we should even be considering setting some of our value aside to make investments, whether bitcoin or any other investments.  So in that regard, there should be a certain amount of figuring out where we are at which would include assessing our cashflow sources and projecting out our expenses for several months into the future (perhaps 6 months to 24 months) and also that we have emergency funds and even perhaps back up emergency funds in order that any kind of investment that we make, including but not limited to bitcoin would end up sitting at a pecking order location in which various other emergency funds have been drained or buttressed prior to even getting into dipping into bitcoin at any time that is other than a time that is completely of our own choosing.

In essence, when investing into bitcoin there may well not be any selling that would happen at levels that are lower than our BTC allocation target - or if we might have ended up overallocating into bitcoin, then we may well have more options to sell or to reallocate at that time, so on an individual level we have to figure out what is our allocation target, and surely I have mentioned that an initial BTC investment target may well be reasonably anywhere between 1% and 25% of the value of our quasi-liquid investment portfolio.

So for example (call this one hypothetical 1) if we might have made an initial determination that a suitable BTC investment allocation for our own situation may well be 10%, so if we are brand new to investing into anything then we may well be able to reach that 10% target very quickly and easily, and since in that newbie status we do not have any other investments, then we may well decide to be more aggressive than our initial 10% assessment, and even more aggressive than the top of the 25% initial range that I had recommended, and part of our own assessment to be more aggressive and to establish even higher levels of allocation into bitcoin is based on making an assessment of our own particulars, and we might end up getting to something like 60% or higher allocation into bitcoin and the rest in cash).  

Surely we can both study the situation and project ahead, which may well cause us to tweak our BTC allocations as we go and upon reaching each of our targets along the way.  In other words, we may well not be in any kind of position to either establish a further target or to confirm that a further target is suitable until we reach the earlier targets first. So, once we reach a target, then we can make adjustments that we believe are suitable to our new (and hopefully improved circumstances) and have become justified after we had reached our targets to create new targets that are based on our having had already achieved the lower level targets and such new targets that we consider setting to be even more within our interests to reach to an even more improved situation.  

There should be some value in being able to have some constantly adjustable BTC allocation (and financial) targets that are tailored to personal financial and psychological circumstances, and the adjustments of the targets need not be characterized as whimsical because there might be some sense that the setting of new targets does not really become reasonable and/or prudent until after having had reached the lower level targets first and then reassessing whether staying on the same overall expected path or to perhaps tweak a little bit based on having had reached some greater concreteness in terms of already having had gotten to the earlier target level.

So as the amount of your accumulated BTC grows, you are able to reassess its value as compared with other investments that you have and determine whether some reallocations might be needed to be made along the way.  For sure the situation of anyone who ONLY has BTC and cash is going to be different from those persons who have a variety of other investments and presumably the expectations of growth or devaluation is going to differ or the various investments that are held including holding some of that value in fiat currencies.

So, let's look at an example of someone who already has established a relatively decently-sized investment portfolio of $100k and comes to the same conclusion that maybe 10% would be a good initial BTC allocation target amount (call this one hypothetical 2).  Accordingly, the there would be options to sell some assets within the $100k portfolio and therefore to immediately reallocate s $90/$10.  Another way would be to allocate all new cashflow or additional funds into BTC until reaching the 10% allocation, so if all of a sudden this person has an additional $11,111.11 that he could buy BTC, then his newly established portfolio of $111,111 would be comprised of 10% BTC.  Of course folks do not necessarily have an extra $11,111.11 laying around that they can all of a sudden immediately allocate into BTC, and even if it were true that such $11,1111.11 extra were to come onto the scene and could be immediately allocated into BTC, I do not necessarily recommend only engaging in lump sum investing into BTC, even if such a $11,111.11 amount were just lying around and able to be authorized to immediately be allocate into BTC with full amounts, even if they become immediately available.  

Again, there are the three categories of BTC accumulation  which are DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.  From my perspective, all three of those possible methods should be considered before just blindly jumping in... and if you consider all three of the options and conclude that it is best to lump sum with the total of this particular $11,111.11 that has been authorized (by you) for BTC purchases, then at least you are making a considered choice that weighs the three BTC accumulation methods before you execute upon your chosen course of how to invest that $11,111.11 and to reach your target 10% allocation amount.

Another possibility could be that you take 1 to 2 years (or however much time it takes for your own comfort level) to allocate whatever extra cashflow that you have in order to reach your 10% BTC accumulation target.  So for example, if it takes you 2 years or longer to reach your 10% target level, then you surely would not be considering getting to 10% as any kind of urgent concern of yours.. but for sure to each their own in terms of setting their targets and how urgent they consider it to be to get to their target.  So in this slower accumulation of BTC and reaching of the 10% target... So if the non-BTC portion of your investment portfolio had grown to $120k, then it may well be necessary that you have to accumulate more than $13.5k worth of BTC in order to have had invested 10% of your total portfolio value (which total has become around $132k after the BTC is added in) into BTC.

Sure the longer that it takes you to reach your BTC target allocation amounts, the more complicated some of the formulations can become regarding whether or not you have put in enough value or not into BTC.;. because the value of the BTC  is likely changing during that time, too.. and it is more likely to change in greater degrees the longer it takes you to reach your target, so it is possible that you might become confused about your target, as well.. including whether you are bing overly aggressive, or not aggressive enough.. however at the same time, you should be able to figure out those matters for yourself in terms of learning about bitcoin and learning about yourself as you go.

For example, when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I did not establish my initial BTC investment target based on any kind of a percentage of my total investment portfolio, but instead I authorize myself to employ an initial amount of dollars to invest into bitcoin for 6 months and gave myself a weekly allowance for how much BTC I could buy each week based on that total initially authorized amount .. which weekly allowance amount would have been dividing the total 6 months authorized amount into 26 equal parts.  

I also told myself that I would reassess my situation once the initial 6 month investment period comes close to ending, and at the end of the first 6 months, I authorized a similar kind of an approach for the next 6 months, so then by the time both of those 6 month investing into BTC periods had run (so close to a year, which would have been towards the end of 2014),  I reassessed my situation and I had considered that when I look at the total value of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, I had pretty much reached a 10% allocation of value into BTC.  So at that point, I came to the conclusion that I had established a sufficiently aggressive stake into bitcoin, so in that regard, I should not necessarily feel any urgency in which I should feel that I need to acquire more BTC in order to feel as if I am sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP in the case that Upward BTC price movement is going to happen.

Of course, any of us should be able to look at the BTC price charts and verify that BTC had somewhat bottomed in 2014, but largely had continued to pretty much stay down in the lower to mid $200s for the vast majority of 2015 - at least until about mid-October 2015... I had run into some cashflow issues during early 2015 that was largely related to a business that I was partnering in, so my own tight cashflow situation likely stifled some of my possible higher levels of buying of BTC during that time, but even with my somewhat hampered cashflow I did continue to DCA in relatively small ways through 2015, and I did end up reaching a kind of overallocation into BTC of something in the ballpark of 13.5% into BTC.

I am pointing out the fact that I felt that I had over-allocated into BTC by having 13.5% allocated to BTC rather than my 10% target amount, which caused me to feel that my 3.5% overallocation had contributed to causing me to conclude that I had more options to shave off some quantities of my BTC whenever I wanted, so long as any portion of BTC that I were to sell would be in profits.  

In about July/August 2015, I looked at my BTC purchases to see that there were some that I bought that were clearly not in profits since the BTC price at that time was around $250 and there were some BTC that I bought that were in profits that I bought for less than the then price, so I ended up conceptually dividing my BTC into three categories: 1) those BTC that were purchased for less than $250, 2) those BTC that were purchased after a somewhat self-serving date that I selected in mid-2014-ish (which also would have included those BTC purchased for less than $250) and had an average purchase price of right around $320, and 3) all of the BTC that I had purchased, which then had an average purchase price of around $515.  

Ultimately, my dividing my BTC into three categories allowed me to create a framework and parameters upon which I would shave off portions of my BTC in order to be able to attempt to set up ways to insure for more possible downside, but also to de-risk some of my BTC holdings by moving some of the profits into cash.

For Opsec reasons, I am not going to provide actual quantities of my BTC holdings, yet in order to attempt to better understand the concept of conceptually dividing my BTC holdings and creating sales parameters based on those categorizations, we could hypothesize that within the three above categories, I had: 1) 10 BTC purchased for an average of less than $250 (which would be less than $2,500 purchase price), 2) 20 BTC purchased for an average of $320 (which would about $6,400 purchase price), and 3) 30 total BTC of all categories purchased for an average of $515 (which would be about $15,450 purchase price).

During that time (largelyJuly/August 2015-ish), I authorized myself to ONLY be able to sell at most up to 50% of the profits from my BTC in the event that BTC prices were to go up, and my actual practice ended up selling way less BTC than the 50% of profits maximum maybe even less than 20% of the profits in the beginning, and even less than 20% of profits as the BTC price went up to higher amounts throughout the subsequent years, and at various points in time, I created new formulas regarding how much BTC I would authorize myself to sell - and a lot of any justification that continued to allow me to sell BTC along the way or to skim off some profits (or even to skim off some surplus BTC value) had to do with my having had achieve overallocation of my portfolio in terms of both how much I had put into BTC but also the relatively rise in the value of my BTC as compared to other non-BTC assets in my investment portfolio allowed for further abilities to skim off profits without really worrying about overly skimming, and the BTC price continued to keep my BTC in territories of way more allocation than my initial 10% authorized amount but I never really felt as if it would be necessary to reallocate my BTC value amount back to 10%.. but instead to continue to allow my winner (BTC) to continue to ride as compared with the rest of my overall investment portfolio in which the non-BTC assets continued to experience way inferior performance as compared with BTC on 1) a historical basis 2) on a continued basis and 3) as an expected value into the future so long as I was considering BTC valuations in longer time frames of 4-10 years into the future from any given point in time to sell.

In terms of my three categories of my hypothetical BTC stash as outlined above, I was only able to calculate profits based on the 10 BTC while the BTC price was between $250 and $320, so if the BTC price went up $10, my profits would be $100, and I would only be able to sell up to half of $100, which would be $50.  

Once the BTC price went above $320, was able to use 20 BTC as my profits calculation, so every $10 the BTC price went up, I was able to skim off up to $100, which would be 50% of $200.

Once the BTC price went above $515, was able to use 30 BTC as my profits calculation, so every $10 the BTC price went up, I was able to skim off up to $150, which would be 50% of $300.

Of course there are other sell parameters that can be created.



Well, I have been selling BTC on the way up and buying back on the way down and largely using the proceeds from the BTC sales to buy back, so that would largely fit within a parameter of selling up to 1% of my overall BTC value for every 10% that the BTC price goes up, and if the BTC price never corrects back down, then those earlier BTC sales can be completely removed from the table.  

If we presume that I have gotten through BTC accumulation stages, and either reach my  BTC accumulation target accumulation level, then my selling on the way up and buying back would seem to fall more closely under a kind of way to maintain the BTC holdings.

Of course traditional valuations of investments and sustainable withdrawals would presume an ability to withdraw up to 4% of the total investment value per year - perhaps in a perpetual way, so long as the investment is returning at least 4% per year on average.

Since BTC prices tend to be so volatile on a historical basis, and arguably inevitably volatile, in the past couple of years, I have considered evaluating the value of my own BTC holdings based on the 200-week moving average rather than ONLY using BTC spot price to reach such valuations.

Of course, if BTC sales are made, then they will be made at spot price, but using the 200-week moving average is meant to evaluate the value of BTC holdings in such a way to help to with establishing both withdraw limits and also perhaps how aggressive any BTC holder might want to be depending on how far above the spot price happens to be from the 200-week moving average, and since the 200-week moving is a lagging indicator that comes from the average BTC price over the past 4 years, the spot price has tended to be higher than the 200-week moving average... .which would mean that better practices would be to try to keep sales of BTC at price locations that are quite a bit higher than the 200-week moving average rather than selling when the BTC price is close to the 200-week moving average.  I had been considering creating some kind of guidance regarding how to consider such a matter... but I have not put together such post, yet.  

Yes, currently the 200-week moving average is at about $22,300, so our current BTC spot prices have been bouncing at and below the 200-week moving average in recent days, which is not really too common of a phenomena in bitcoin history and I would not expect the BTC spot price to stay below the 200-week moving average for very long... yet of course, there are no guarantees in bitcoinlandia, either.  

The 200-week moving average can be used as a means to attempt to figure out how much BTC can be withdrawn at various times whether calculating how much BTC to withdraw per year or per quarter.  As already mentioned, traditionally investing and withdrawal systematic considerations would have allowed the use 4% per year, but since the 200-week moving average has ben historically moving up at 75% or more per year on average, there seem to be reasonable and prudent ways to potentially be quite a bit more aggressive with regularly withdrawing value from BTC holdings when using the 200-week moving average as the measuring BTC's value while at the same time maintaining the possibility for perpetual withdrawals so long as not going overboard.


I attempt to maintain and follow any kinds of BTC selling formulas in which I do not presume any ability to buy those sold BTC back at lower prices... sure, if the BTC price happens to drop after I had sold, and if I still have that money available, then I may well consider and construct systems to buy back the BTC.. but I do not presume being able to buy back any sold BTC once I have set it up for selling.

Probably another way of describing the matter is that my ongoing practices are meant to be employing a practice of ongoingly entering BTC longs.

Furthermore, I don't consider it to be a good practice or even safe to consider selling BTC in order to strive to buy back at lower prices.. That does not seem to be a correct kind of a mental framework when dealing with the best asset class that the world has ever seen.. namely King Daddy.. namely my lil precious.. and it seem to me that the best of accumulation strategies should be centered upon ongoingly buying using DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing methods to buy until either reaching an over-accumulation state of being and/or to be in considerable profits and to be shaving from fragments of the profits, and for sure having a sufficiently long investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer helps in the riding out of likely (most likely inevitable) volatility periods - which are likely more stressful during the earlier accumulation stages, and yet can also be stressful when downward BTC price corrections can sometimes play out in such extreme ways (like we are experiencing currently)

Of course, once you reach a decently solid maintenance stage with your BTC holdings or a liquidation stage, then you will likely have more potential options (especially if your BTC holdings are in decent profits - which surely is not guaranteed either, even if you have been buying and holding BTC for a long time) and surely you should be able to be more assertive and aggressive in terms of your BTC sales the more that you are in sufficient profits and you do not consider that you are striving to buy back lower than the price that you sell your BTC.. so for sure, there should be no presumption of being able to buy back your sold BTC at any kind of a lower price than your sales price.


That seems to make sense if you are largely saying that the more you are in profits then you have more cushion when selling your BTC, but I would still not presume being able to buy BTC back at lower prices.


Surely some folks become very short-term in their thinking about BTC, and they measure the dollar value of their profits in the short-term, and there is no problem using dollar value when measuring short-term profits and even if you want to spend some of your BTC, but if you are trying to consider places to put your value for the longer term and even to potentially be able to get way more dollars in a longer time frame of 4-10 years or longer, then bitcoin is likely going to store value much better than any other asset option that any of us regular normies currently have available, but that still might not mean that we ONLY want to apportion our value in bitcoin and dollars, and sometimes it can help to buy and hold other kinds of assets including property and even stocks, and of course, if we are humans, then inevitably we are going to have ongoing expenses too.. so we do have to choose from where are we going to spend value and figure out from where we are going to spend first when we have a variety of options, and it seem that if you build your investment portfolio in a way to establish yourself into having some bitcoin as one of your possible value options as if bitcoin may well be one of the last places in which those of us holding bitcoin should be spending unless we are way overly allocated in bitcoin and we are choosing when to sell/convert some of our bitcoin into cash or some other kinds of conversion of it, but we still should be considering that we have to be careful to make sure that we have value that is available to be able to consider our various ongoing expenses so that we are not selling our bitcoin at times that are any time other than times of our own choosing.  

In theory I know the points above. But as you said it turns out to really understand it takes time. And as time goes on one will understand it more and more. So experience is needed here. Even to build a strong psychological or mentality takes time or experience. Even myself was taught a hard lesson by past experiences. And the adjustments continue all the way. And to maintain the mentality of my mind and finances. So I invest in bitcoin regularly. little by little. so it's not felt. In the past I was not afraid to buy when Ath. and then there is no reason now i feel scared when i buy at 20k. because of experience and time that has sharpened the mental. because I invest not for 1 year or 2 years but I am targeting more years in the future. could it be the next 5-10 years. Although sometimes the target can change according to certain conditions. because sometimes there are certain situations that make us change the plans that have been arranged neatly (adjustments).

Thanks man, you dont gotta go in deeper, its always hard to recommend particular assets to a broad audience, because everyone needs/ situation is different. Growing such a large portfolio will also take time, we will have enough to do our homework till then. Was still interesting hearing your take.


I actually thought about this too that getting a small amount of gold can make a whole lot of sense. Since Bitcoin will be volatile for quite some time, there could alway be some cases where we need some kind of unexpected emergency money in the moment. And then gold is perfect, because of the stability it offers.

Just like rn if someone would need money unexpectedly it would be a terrible time to sell Bitcoin. We dont have the luxury to choose yet, when to get some money out of Bitcoin, while not making big losses. With gold this doesnt really matter, its always pretty stable compared to other assets. So we could sell it easily and buy it back later. Also Gold is terrible to store in large quantities so something like 1% could give the portfolio some nice extra capabilities.


Yup theres also another a big factor investing plays for the economy, even tho i see how the whole system has become like a casino now. But if we go back to sane economics one day -> Businesses need liquidity, consumers need money.

Doing sane investments could be a win win situation for both. If consumers invested into companies theyre customers of themselves for example. The business could scale up their operations more, and the consumer gets more money to spend. But this can also go bad, if people are bad at investing and this will likely be the case. Forcing everyone to invest is probably always a bad idea for society as a whole. A hard money like Bitcoin could in theory work as an inbuilt savings mechanism for everyone(slight deflation trough lost coins), and serve people better, because they dont need to go to third parties to see their money grow, it just happens automatically and is distributed to everyone equally. Altough this still needs to be confirmed in practice.

Right now were in a bad situation for everyone, because fiat keeps devaluing so much, that it forces everyone to either spend their money fast or invest it. Now we have an education system that refuses to teach financial literacy, and we see a growing gap between poor and rich. We have one part of the population that can play this game perfectly and the other part is forced to get into something they were never prepared for. Its obvious who will win.

And why i said bad for everyone, because this tanks the economy in the process, a healthy society needs to balance itself out. If no more care is taken of poor/ workers then the system cant work out in the long run(even tho they try to keep it alive artificially) and wealth wont matter much anymore. Loose- Loose for everyone. But at the same time a system that vilifies wealthy people, will have all their prosperity run away and end in poverty for everyone. There needs to be a healthy balance between the two, smh like someone is testing us.

The world needs sound money asap.

I don't feel very comfortable getting into discussions about the various ways to apportion your investment portfolio outside of bitcoin and the dollar (or whatever other fiat that you might have as your local currency).. so of course you have to measure your circumstances to figure out what your balance is going to be.

I don't have any problem with suggesting that any young / newbie investor to begin to build his/her investment portfolio by only focusing on bitcoin and cash, and once s/he gets up to a certain decently sizable amount, such as something like $50k, then at that point to consider the extent to which further diversification might be helpful.  Of course, the decently sizable amount has a considerable amount of subjectivity - because there might be some measure in which there might be questions about whether the investor feels that s/he is starting to feel that s/he has too many eggs in one basket.  Of course property and equity funds are not bad for attempting to offset having too much specialization but it might not even be any kind of compelling need to diversify until getting to some higher amount.. whether that is $200k or $500k or $1million.... at some point for each of us, we might feel some need to NOT have all our eggs in one basket.

Property for sure can tie you down geographically, contain a lot of expenses related to maintenance, taxes, ownership transfer costs and even an attack vector for possible liabilities and lawsuits that others can easily identify that you own it and viola.. all of a sudden there is a lien on it.  But, if you are geographically tied down anyhow, and you need to live somewhere, so it is not a bad thing to store some of your wealth and to diversify outside of bitcoin (even though we also know that property is also suffering from the pumping/inflation mechanisms of the government debt systems).


I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.   If you consider your investment into bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar in similar kinds of ways that gold and silver used to be a hedge against the dollar, you might consider that in accordance with Gresham's law, bitcoin is likely going to suck away most if not all of the monetary value of gold and silver.. and maybe there might be some be some Armageddon-like fringe scenarios in which it would have been good to have some gold and/or silver.. but in some sense bitcoin is likely 1,000x-ish better than gold already.. so is there any reason to have both.. or maybe 1% gold and 99% bitcoin.. might be a possible way of allocating that portion of your hedging against the dollar aspect of your investment portfolio,  perhaps?

To me it seems difficult to even put certain types of investments on a spectrum of gambling, but i also get where y’all are coming from. Let’s say you’re buying something like gold or silver, you’re getting exactly the amount you paid for and your investment can’t vanish even if market prices fluctuate(the gold will always stay in your hands). Not really a gamble.

Maybe the gambling factor comes into play when the underlying asset is ignored by the investor and the only focus is the market price and higher returns, like waiting for something to go parabolic without understanding/ being interested about what you were investing into/ or wanting to actually own the asset, if it wasn’t for money.

Now if someone is risking their asset they didn’t previously gamble on, like the people that got their Bitcoin liquidated now, because they were over-leveraged, then we’re getting into high gambling territory. This has nothing to do with sane investing anymore.

But if i actually wanna own a part of x company trough good and bad times, because i believe they deliver a great value, i dont see how it’s gambling(then owning a company would be gambling too), its simply providing liquidity to where actual value is created. It’s more like keep tuning a car till it can win a race and beyond.

To me this was the original thought behind doing investments, tho i agree that this is getting more and more lost, but people who invest with strong principles will succeed more.

Now sure if i go into 100 companies in 5 days, it’s nothing else than gambling, because no one can possibly gather enough info about the underlying assets in this short amount of time.

Now if we go into the section of investing were no more underlying asset is bought, like derivatives, we’re coming closer into gambling territory.

So i see why the both are on a spectrum.

I have some higher education and graduate school work and then some career (work) experience that had dealt with analyzing information, critically assessing the information and then making recommendations in regards to the findings or persuasiveness of the information.

I have not really considered my research and writings in regards to bitcoin to have been very academically based nor very technologically (such as coding skills or cryptography skills) informed, but instead attempts to help myself and others to brainstorm ideas from more of a layman's point of view in order that we might be able to achieve better assessments of our own financial and psychological situations in order to help us to better tailorize our decisions whether to get involved in bitcoin, and if so how to allocate finances and energies in accordance with our personal particulars.

Surely, I feel that I have been ongoingly studying these matters related to bitcoin since getting into bitcoin in late 2013, and surely some of my attempts to help others through the forum are likely more centrally meant to help myself too in better understanding my own approach and framing and reframing and consideration and reconsideration of the dynamic nature of bitcoin-related information.


You are correct that I should probably try to bump this thread more frequently - even though from time to time, I feel that I need to tweak or update some of the posts contained within the thread to make them more comprehensive and more timely in terms of the sometimes assessment of price dyanamics that might get outdated...  or to maybe add some content on some other related topics that I find interesting and I have discussed in some other threads.


It does seem as if investing and gambling are on a spectrum in terms of there are ways to engage in behaviors that are more towards one end of the spectrum or the other end of the spectrum, but they are likely not completely pure concepts in terms of being separable from one another as sometimes folks like to talk in terms of black and white absolutes.

Trading does seem to have a lot of aspects that are closer to gambling rather than to investing, even though there are ways that trading can be employed to hedge risk, so in that regard be incorporated as part of an overall investing strategy. and likely if any of us are wanting to consider trading as investing we would likely need to attempt to trade in bigger and wider gaps to offset risks or to serve as insurance rather than considering trading in terms of shorter term profit making. but I suppose there are some folks who can become really good at trading in such a way that they feel that they are not really taking very many risks because they are striving to set up their orders in such a way to take both sides, so they are merely hedging their bets which could end up fitting more within a kind of investing perspective rather than a gambling perspective.

I would also speculate that the more informed that you are regarding various factors, then it is likely that you are more able to set your bets in accordance with the probability of one outcome versus another outcome, so in that sense there would likely be less risk-taking involved. and it would fit less on the spectrum of gambling, even though some folks will still want to characterize such perspective and practices as gambling.

It seems that when we are talking about how to accumulate BTC, I am recommending to accumulate BTC through dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. also HODL would apply within the same accumulation strategy that I am attempting to recommend.  

I do not recommend selling BTC and buying back cheaper as a BTC accumulation strategy, and so in my own personal approach to BTC, I do not really get into trading as a recommended practice until getting to either the maintenance stage or to the liquidation stage.  I also believe that the use of any kinds of financial instruments is a more advanced technique, and really I am not opposed to employing various kind of leveraging in order to front load a BTC investment, but of course, front loading does take more calculations about the cost of the loan, BTC's likely direction and having other sources of income to service the debt in the event that BTC prices do not go up during the period of the loan which would have been the preferred outcome., which of course is never a guaranteed outcome, even if BTC's price direction happens to be looking quite favorable (bullish).

So if we set our targets regarding how much BTC we would like to accumulate in terms of percentage of our overall investment portfolio, perhaps starting out with something like a target that 1% to 25% of overall investment portfolio would be allocated in BTC, so once we reach our target level of BTC or even if we have overachieved our target, then we may well have more options in terms of starting to employ some selling as the BTC price goes up, and using those proceeds to buy back as the BTC price goes down.  Surely these kinds of techniques of selling on the way up and buying on the way down could be considered as trading and gambling, but I would not consider them to fit so well in the category of gambling because largely we can preset the BTC selling amounts and the price and then just let the price come to our set amount.  

If the BTC price does not go to the point in which we had set our sell order, then no sale is made... so we can structure the various sell points in a kind of laddering manner on the way up and choosing what amount of increments that we would like to set between each of our sell amounts and also how much BTC we would like to sell at each ladder rung level. One formula that I had frequently applied historically was selling somewhere around 1% of the value of my BTC holdings for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.  Of course those kind of formulas can be tweaked to be higher or lower, and they can be framed in different kinds of ways of flexibility, but if such a formula were to be followed you also be able to figure out how much BTC you would end up selling all the way up the spectrum to various price points and be able to figure out how much BTC you would have remaining and the value of that remaining BTC at various price points up the price ladder.  You should also be able to conclude that if your sell rate was ONLY 1% per every 10% price rise, then you would never run out of BTC by strictly following such a formula... so therefore you can figure out whether your sell strategy is overly conservative or overly aggressive depending on what you would like to achieve if the BTC price reaches your speculated price points.

I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan