So let me get this straight.
Even people holding millions of dollars worth of bitcoin, will see their bitcoins trapped because transaction fees will be worth millions of dollars? What fees are we talking about by 2030? (at supposedly around $500k price)
Well we can estimate given that BTC trades 1/100th of its market cap daily. So @ $500k per BTC thus a $10 trillion market cap, thus $100 billion transacted daily. Given 144 blocks per day, that is $600 million per block.
Let's assume that whales will put complex settlement transactions on the blockchain with many inputs and outputs so perhaps only 100 transactions per block. Presuming that whales are willing to pay 0.1% fee for security (i.e. $600,000 per block), that means a minimum transaction fee of $6000. If whales are willing to pay more for security, say 1%, then minimum transaction fee of $60,000.
However, I think whales will end up demanding a kickback from miners for their transaction fees, so that miners can jack up fees on non-whales. Whales can make this demand because they can refuse to send their transactions to miners which won't deal. Yet non-whales can't make a credible threat, because miners who generally offered lower fees would end up losing hashrate relative to those miners who didn't defect from the fee market. Thus I think you will probably see miners colluding to extract the maximum fees that gouge non-whales.
So perhaps 10% fees so $600,000 per transaction. You'll pay it because you have no choice, whereas the whales will have exempted themselves from the fee. So in other words, we will be paying the fees for the whales, eventually the millionaires paying exorbitant fees in order to transact unregulated.
You'll of course be able to avoid that exorbitant fees by going through a regulated option as I explained previously.
So the bottom line is the whales will be free from regulation and we will not. We remain slaves.
And how do we know when we start losing money (aka when is the time to dump?)
Monitor the fees paid in blocks. It will gradually rise over the coming years.
You say now is too early because the price will go higher and the fees will still be affordable.
How does one calculate when you start losing money in relation to the amount of BTC you are holding, the price, and the fees so you know the ideal time to dump?
It is a function of the supply and demand for BTC. As the demand for transactions outstrips supply of block size space, the transaction fees will rise accordingly. You can project if you can project BTC transaction demand.
You paint a scary picture where there is an Illuminati elite of BTC holders.
Well they exist. MP is one of them. You can speak to him on his IRC channel. Ask him if you want. Be sincere and maybe he won't be too hard on you.
Better to ask directly while you still can access him. I provided the link to his IRC in my prior post.
Please notify us after you did.
I am just a hard working poor guy hustling for BTCs, made a decent portfolio (not even yet 21 BTC group) and you are saying these guys will make my wealth useless because the fee will be so high by 2030 that even if you are holding something decent like 10-20 BTC, your wealth will be stuck, so you are forced to eventually sell before the fee is higher than your wealth. This is just nuts man, what the fuck?
Well I think the price of Bitcoin will rise to greater than $10,000 before you have any problem about the fees, as long as you are only spending minimum increments of 1 BTC.
Fucking billionaires. Fuck all of you!! I only wanted to make a couple million dollars from my hard working and hustling and long term vision to hodl BTC and retire peacefully and now I will get fucked by insane fees. Fuck this trash, fuck their group, pussies. I was excited to see BTC at 6 figures in 10 years, but I will not be part of it even if i have 10 million worth of BTC because fees will be higher than 10 million BTC? this is insane. When the fuck do I dump this garbage? im too pissed, im going to the gym.
Well at 20 BTC you probably be able to cash out more than a $million if you don't encounter the other pitfalls I mentioned.
We are headed into a difficult time with collapsing governments, chaos, and war.
But if you are clever, you might make it through in a good situation. Remain alert and astute. Don't stop learning.