Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 147. (Read 435458 times)

Just-Dice is suspected of being a scam by some.  Barely a day goes by without me seeing someone saying "dooglus == nakowa".  Mostly they're joking, but it's certainly on people's minds.

Personally, if I was going to make a 2nd account to win the investor's money with I don't think I would make it an account with such a forum presence.  nakowa has set up a competing dice site, closed it, then funded the IPO of a 2nd competing dice site almost singlehandedly, posted threads in which he offers to sell his 'strategy', and made a huge amount of noise on the site.  He argues with me in threads here too.

That seems like an awful lot of work to go to in order to steal from the investors.  If I was wanting to steal from the investors it would be a lot easier to do it from an account that never speaks in the chat and has no forum presence.

Even easier than that would be to run an honest site and collect commissions week after week.  That's the plan.  I hope it will work out in the long run.  Geese, golden eggs, etc.

As for the calls to "change something", if he's cheating then limiting the maximum bet won't stop him winning, and if he isn't cheating and is just lucky then limiting the maximum bet will only slow his inevitable losses.  I don't see how it helps in either case.

One thing that I can change that will protect investors is whether the site is up or not.  If I take it down they won't lose any more.  But I suspect that most investors wouldn't like that decision.  They want the site to stay up so they can win their coins back again.  The ones who want this to end have the option already of divesting.

I'm quite tempted to just give up on this whole thing.  It looks like the site is simply at nakowa's mercy.  He's promised me in the past that he won't play any more, but never sticks to his word.  So what do I do?  Continue to let the investors take these horrific losses?

While this assertion is true, I believe that JD's public funding model has at least 2 advantages regardless of maxbet :
- creating a little army of advertisers (investors)
- turning a portion of investors into gamblers

I doubt that JD would be where it stands nowadays without this unique feature.

But I've also not seen you, dooglus, take the possibility seriously that he has exploited your site.
[...]
As a potential investor / sender of money to your site, I find that confidence worrying.

dooglus should put out a bounty to prove the RNG is flawed. allow people to benefit financially without losing their soul...

Think doog has to maximize the bets, 10-20 BTC, or sg else. If he won't do that, the site will be destroyed in a week by Nakowa....

Well I don't know the implementation of JD, but shouldn't it the possible to use the output of a PRNG to make a fair system?

Except a physical RNG is not provably fair for the gambler.

We recently learnt that some RNGs or their APIs are not completely safe. Unless JD is using a physical RNG thats also a possible point of failure.

Thanks for the explanation molecular.

SHA512 is secure, all these posts are just FUD.  No attacks have been proven against SHA512 or even SHA256.

If this is the case, wouldn't the entire proof of work for Bitcoin be compromised?

Bitcoin = SHA256(SHA256)
JD = HMAC-SHA512(sever seed, client seed, nonce)

They both use the SHA family right?

SHA512 is secure, all these posts are just FUD.  No attacks have been proven against SHA512 or even SHA256.

Only tweaking 1 bit in the input to SHA would still give a completely different output - that's the point of a hashing algorithm!

I find it quite funny that there's all these posts from people saying how they think they have found 'patterns' of high high low low or whatever, then they end their post with 'but I'm not a mathematician'.

Believe me, if SHA512 or SHA256 were broken, we would know about it - firstly the entire TLS/SSL CA infrastructure would collapse..

Will

Maybe a tried-and-true PRNG could be used seeded with sha256(server_seed || ":" || user_seed) or whatever) instead of that nonce-postfix-thingy that is implemented, which only changes a couple of bits (down to only one bit rougly every second time) of the sha256 input between rolls. I'm not saying this is a flawed approach (I clearly do not know this), just that it's impossible for me to be sure it's not (partly) predictable.

I typed a long reply, then the forum crapped on me some error so I lost it. I will try to recreate my answer.


1. The site is provably fair for players. No site or dice game is provably fair for investors other than the owner. Slow games, like my lotto, are perfectly provably fair, but you have to wait 1 week for the results. No one is going to play dice with a 1 week delay.

2. The RNG is not even a RNG. It uses a deterministic but secure hash function in a message authentication code format. The results look random. They are not. They are uniformly distributed.

JD's rolls have 3 components: a server seed, a client seed, and an incrementing nonce. The server seed does not change until you Randomize. The client seed does not change. The nonce goes up by one for every roll.

I believed, and I still do, that you can predict a pattern.

For a short time, I ran a pseudo gambling investment (DIGS) where I collected other people's money and gambled them in a carefully planned martingale strategy. Mostly for fun. Until I made a mistake, which was something I actually predicted.

I lost 6 consecutive times. The bet now is, I'm going to win the next roll, or the 7th bet. Everyone calls this the Gambler's Fallacy. Doesn't matter. Nakowa is afflicted with the same disease.

For lack of a true scientific explanation, I resorted to just saying I had magic seeds. However, my understanding of statistics and probabilities, or the lack thereof, convinced me that I can exploit this predictable or deterministic pattern.

But. No one believes me, and I can't explain myself.

If I lose, they told me so. If I win, I just got lucky. Even though I said I knew it, I couldn't possible have predicted it.

So, no one is sending me coins, I'll just have to wait patiently until I have enough to go gamble it again. Wanna bet? Send me coins and I will gamble it for you using my so called magic seeds, and I'll send you back the profit, if you'll let me keep the change.

I told everyone, send me 100, I will send back 110, after making 112, and I'll keep the 2, if I win. If I lose, it was a gamble huh.... ... Hehehehe. Stupid magic seeds, stupid dragon babies, stupid dung beetle...

Anyway, you asked for my point of view.

Deposits have stopped...

server issues?

2. The RNG is not even a RNG. It uses a deterministic but secure hash function in a message authentication code format. The results look random. They are not. They are uniformly distributed.

JD's rolls have 3 components: a server seed, a client seed, and an incrementing nonce. The server seed does not change until you Randomize. The client seed does not change. The nonce goes up by one for every roll.

I believed, and I still do, that you can predict a pattern.

[...]

For lack of a true scientific explanation, I resorted to just saying I had magic seeds. However, my understanding of statistics and probabilities, or the lack thereof, convinced me that I can exploit this predictable or deterministic pattern.

But. No one believes me, and I can't explain myself.