Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 148. (Read 435353 times)

Deposits have stopped...

server issues?

loool. way to miss the point, mr. journalist. hilarious.

Dooglus, if you can find ways to demonstrate / reassure yourself and investors that the RNG is good and the site has not been compromised, I think that's all you can do.

This event sucks in the short term, but in the long term, assuming the site/RNG are secure, all this publicity could work out in favor of the house.

I invested in the wrong time it seems 
I lost a lot already

A uniformly distributed random number is still a random number, Dabs. You're saying here that the results aren't random because they're random?

I typed a long reply, then the forum crapped on me some error so I lost it. I will try to recreate my answer.


1. The site is provably fair for players. No site or dice game is provably fair for investors other than the owner. Slow games, like my lotto, are perfectly provably fair, but you have to wait 1 week for the results. No one is going to play dice with a 1 week delay.

2. The RNG is not even a RNG. It uses a deterministic but secure hash function in a message authentication code format. The results look random. They are not. They are uniformly distributed.

JD's rolls have 3 components: a server seed, a client seed, and an incrementing nonce. The server seed does not change until you Randomize. The client seed does not change. The nonce goes up by one for every roll.

I believed, and I still do, that you can predict a pattern.

For a short time, I ran a pseudo gambling investment (DIGS) where I collected other people's money and gambled them in a carefully planned martingale strategy. Mostly for fun. Until I made a mistake, which was something I actually predicted.

I lost 6 consecutive times. The bet now is, I'm going to win the next roll, or the 7th bet. Everyone calls this the Gambler's Fallacy. Doesn't matter. Nakowa is afflicted with the same disease.

For lack of a true scientific explanation, I resorted to just saying I had magic seeds. However, my understanding of statistics and probabilities, or the lack thereof, convinced me that I can exploit this predictable or deterministic pattern.

But. No one believes me, and I can't explain myself.

If I lose, they told me so. If I win, I just got lucky. Even though I said I knew it, I couldn't possible have predicted it.

So, no one is sending me coins, I'll just have to wait patiently until I have enough to go gamble it again. Wanna bet? Send me coins and I will gamble it for you using my so called magic seeds, and I'll send you back the profit, if you'll let me keep the change.

I told everyone, send me 100, I will send back 110, after making 112, and I'll keep the 2, if I win. If I lose, it was a gamble huh.... ... Hehehehe. Stupid magic seeds, stupid dragon babies, stupid dung beetle...

Anyway, you asked for my point of view.

Agree with jabetizo.  But I've also not seen you, dooglus, take the possibility seriously that he has exploited your site.

As you aren't invested you don't have skin in that game (only skin in the 10% free option).  As a potential investor / sender of money to your site, I find that confidence worrying.

The site is 'probably fair'.    LOL!

One example http://www.news.com.au/technology/the-biggest-bitcoin-win-in-gambling-history/story-e6frfro0-1226725824027

Think of all the "free" PR, wagering is probably increasing..

There is a closed form theoretical solution to this problem.
With the above strategy, the chance of reaching your target before going bust is

(1-r^a)/(1-r^(a+b)), where r=p/(1-p)

p = chance of losing the bet, (=0.505)
a = bankroll / betsize
b = target / betsize

As in the example earlier: bankroll =10000, target=25002600, bet=200 gives a probability of 6968%

While this assertion is true, I believe that JD's public funding model has at least 2 advantages regardless of maxbet :
- creating a little army of advertisers (investors)
- turning a portion of investors into gamblers

I doubt that JD would be where it stands nowadays without this unique feature.

Problem is that the whole point of j-d is to gather funds from many investors, to raise a high max bet.
If he was to lower the max bet, likely he would have been able to do it with his own funds.
(as Deprived has explained many times, assuming I got it right)

Why not use your towtoad account?

^^^

FACT: Investors on JD are always gambling although they might have an EV of -1%. However, because of variance, they might well lose from time to time, just as other gamblers do.

1. How can one be sure? I think if it is 100% provably fair and the OP and player and whoever else has no chance to get hold of the final outcome in advance than the OP is honest.
does something like 100% provably fair exist? if yes, then my next question would be, is JD 100% provably fair?

2. if the numbers of the RNG are not random this would explain everything. but why would JD chose a RNG that is not random? a RNG that is not random is not a RNG imho
could You explain Your view in more depth. this would be very interesting to understand (at least for me)

thanks

"I'm quite tempted to just give up on this whole thing.  It looks like the site is simply at nakowa's mercy.  He's promised me in the past that he won't play any more, but never sticks to his word.  So what do I do?  Continue to let the investors take these horrific losses?"



Well, that's a two edged thing... When U+Investors are in profit, I'm sure U+Investors doesn't care all of the people who had losses. Now U+Investors are in loss, don't think nakowa won't play anymore. Let's be honest, If u find the winning strategy, or simply U have luck, won't U do the same?

YES, it is wise to raise house edge to 1.98%. That's my advice, which will hardly be accepted.

1. OP / Operator / Owner = honest. No further questions, your honor.
2. RNG flawed? Not really, but I still say, as I have been saying since the site went up, the numbers are not random, and the numbers are predictable. The numbers are also uniformly distributed. I can't back it up. So no one is listening to me. But I bet, my next roll is going to win. Dung beetles, golden dragons, and lucky seeds.

A. You can't do that, or some people won't play under those rules. It will not be seen as provably fair.
B. Intel has a hardware RNG.

3. I can't really comment on this as I have no experience with the difference between clouds and dedicated servers. Either way, the servers can still be compromised.

What I can tell you all, if I had the same bankroll as Nakowa, I would probably be doing the same thing, however I will be playing on 87.7779% and not 50% or 49.5%.