Anyway, I put 0.2BTC in on 18/08/13 (or 08/18/13 for 'murica) and now that has grown by just over 1% (currently 0.20215833). Is that normal for 2 weeks?
It's hard to define "normal" when looking at what is effectively a random walk, but it's close to expectation.
If we have about 5k BTC wagered each day, and about 50k BTC total in the bankroll, we expect to keep 1% of the 5k ie. 50 BTC per day, which is 0.1% of the total bankroll.
So you can expect to make about 0.1% per day, and in 2 weeks you can expect to make about 1.4%.
All of this is subject to change
s is:
* daily wagered amount
* total investment size
* luck
ybut it gives a very rough idea of what to currently expect.
If things continue like this, that's a 36.5% expected return per year. But they won't, of course. Things are always changing.
As for the previous post about why profits are 0.6% when they should be 1%, Deprived nailed it. The relatively few very large bets are responsible. You'll see in the profit chart below that after the crazy period in the middle of July we've very closely followed the green line of current expectation (our expectation is to run parallel to the red line forever. We expect to stay ~4k below the red line, but even so, profit is still expected to rise and approach 1%):
