Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 179. (Read 435360 times)

Just invested 0.2BTC - all that I had left thats not tied up in other areas. Lets see how it goes over the next few days/weeks/months.

1.66 BTC / 110268 Shares = 0.00001505 per Share

At DMS' last sale price, this is only a .08% 'gain' for you (that's 8 Hundredths of a percent, not 8%). It's not nothing, but it's really not a lot

Is that the one where the fund manager calls his clients losers?  

I have no intention to 'deprive' me of anything.

Here is one trick:
DMS is invested in Just Dice. So if you buy DMS (purchase or selling) when there is a big profit at J-D in last 24h before 16:00 GMT (before adjusting the PURCHASE price for investments (J-D) gains) you are buying cheaper DMS than any other day.
Today J-D should earn 1.66 BTC for DMS according to my calculation.

Thanks for your validation.

A sidenote is that it is not illegal to gamble in most countries to my knowledge.

So if you are being accused of investing in JD/gambling and they have proof that you transferred or received coins from JD, they cannot know if it was for gambling or investing in gambling (unless they have internal records of JD, is this correct dooglus?).

Dooglus is not making a big secret about his real world identity.

This adds serious risk to theft by illegal and legal gangs.

Dooglus, how do you look at this? Was this a conscious choice? Or something you would have prefered to do differently looking back?

Maybe I'm being paranoid in which case I would value to receive the arguments.  

Yeah that is a good point, but most people into Bitcoin don't care about those real world consequences so much, already they are putting hundreds of thousands into a random dice site created less than 2 months ago.

I'm sure if this was a investing forum with experienced investors things would be very different, but the world of Bitcoin is very wild west still.

However I do agree with you.

Got to try this sometime

There is another risk, risk of prosecution. Investing in gambling is illegal in many countries (unjustly I agree). Chances are low that investors would be prosecuted next to administrators, but it's possibile. You can invest anonymously in JD but it is hard not to make any mistake as you always need to use tor + vpn. And any funds coming or going to JD may not be connectable to an exchange or your identity.

This means that you are actually risking more than just the money you put in. You are risking all your assets, as prosecution of illegal activity can lead to freezing and seizure of all your assets.

So, I think the correct question is: is 4% per month enough to risk increased risk of theft and prosecution?

Correct me if I'm wrong please.

Well hopefully this will make an equilibrium. As more people think that the risk for 4% is not worth it and pull out, the risk takers among us that stay invested will profit a little more.

As more people divest in the future, investor returns will increase and more people will come back to invest, the key is that the people that simply stay invested will profit the most, even if some months we only make 1%

Personally I think will are quickly approaching a point where getting 20% a year will be normal. I am hoping a lot of people start pulling out at that point, if they don't then the returns here will become worse than a savings account.

I don't see a problem with whales, they could just as well lose 5k in a day too.


The problem I see is that current expected return, calculated on turnover of the last 7 days (7036 btc bet per day), averaged at 0.14% per day or 4% per month. (because per day expected return is 1% of that so 703.6 btc but capital is now 50k).

Although this looks acceptable on first sight, it is a new record low. The average expected return since inception has been 0.64% per day or 20% per month. Even in the first week expected return was 0.18% per day or 5% per month.

Expected returns on investment are dropping at a rapid rate as invested capital is going up day by day while gambling turnover is actually doing the inverse and dropping for a month in a row now.  

At the same time risk for robbery and theft is going up considerably as the bankroll becomes bigger.


The question one needs to ask is expected return of 4% per month enough to expose yourself to such an increased risk of theft?

Reducing of exposure to JD is desirable as this continues to deteriorate.

I'm sure there is more than one whale around

He probably sold all his bitcoins and became millionnaire now

I remember! That was very exciting, hope that whale comes back...

Still, a whale can steal it within 2 hour.
Do you remember when JD came from +2k to -3k?

Here's the approx amount of BTC staked weekly & 4 weekly so far as taken from the site's daily figures.

        date              wagered      weekly   4 weekly
----------    --------------- ---------- ----------
2013-06-20   2919.79120394
2013-06-21    644.49472807
2013-06-22    796.46026012
2013-06-23   1003.34512897
2013-06-24   1204.43427320
2013-06-25   1065.60264041
2013-06-26   5237.27528647     12,872
2013-06-27   7207.34900533
2013-06-28   2614.69110338
2013-06-29   6420.51263080
2013-06-30   1966.41535014
2013-07-01   3595.83494994
2013-07-02   2667.53734318
2013-07-03   3438.89064692     27,912
2013-07-04   3061.90377168
2013-07-05   6055.37219614
2013-07-06  16521.57210031
2013-07-07   4004.34791295
2013-07-08   5494.99888483
2013-07-09   3537.85780509
2013-07-10   4526.38023233     43,202
2013-07-11   7196.50712954
2013-07-12  13427.41888094
2013-07-13  85586.59881216
2013-07-14  74857.67915018
2013-07-15  14501.68802324
2013-07-16  12106.68823300
2013-07-17 124770.54288709    332,449    416,435
2013-07-18   9864.54567229
2013-07-19  59077.29771109
2013-07-20  19642.42567084
2013-07-21  50859.89798946
2013-07-22  12651.08401018
2013-07-23  16099.51462021
2013-07-24  24166.72399172    192,362
2013-07-25  11136.45881926
2013-07-26  16495.17058690
2013-07-27  24772.36781111
2013-07-28  21311.93967118
2013-07-29   6521.08392638
2013-07-30  29702.15103563
2013-07-31   5057.24862215    114,996
2013-08-01   5045.37567396
2013-08-02   5135.35298713
2013-08-03   7137.81257895
2013-08-04   6077.53644664
2013-08-05  15842.19155358
2013-08-06  29746.98110144
2013-08-07   7178.03969418     76,163
2013-08-08   5473.70826204
2013-08-09   5258.33539316
2013-08-10   8887.61167099
2013-08-11  11516.68584811
2013-08-12   7751.12028836
2013-08-13   4914.86873106
2013-08-14   6399.71739677     50,203    433,724
2013-08-15   4719.11540364

However, each win of "max bet size" would reduce the max bet size each time... by a little

I hope someone tries.

a playful whale can still destroy this in just 10 bets.

profits > 5k
glad to be the tickler rather than the ticklee...