Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 192. (Read 435353 times)

I think that if I want to attract more investment, implementing something like the proposed scheme would achieve it.  But I'm not sure I do.

The maximum profit *per roll* is already over 340 BTC, which is enormous, and investment continues to grow.

I worry that if I offer a "safer" way for big players to invest then a small number of very big investors will come in and destroy the yield for the current investors, effectively forcing them to either dangerously increase the amount they're risking per roll, or to pull out completely.

My vision for the site was as a community of small investors together building a decent sized bankroll for themselves and others to play against.  Not as a money-making scheme for a small number of already-rich bitcoin millionaires.

I was attracted to the idea of having "local coins" because it very neatly solves the implementation trouble I was having, but I don't think the effects it would bring about would necessarily be desirable.

pros:

* investors can keep more of their coins locally, reducing counter-party risk
* new investors are attracted (those not willing to deposit 100% of their bankroll with me)
* max profit increases

cons:

* max profit becomes much more volatile
* existing investors are diluted such that it's no longer worth staying invested without taking big risks
* changing core functionality carries associated risk and expense

At the moment I'm thinking "ain't broke, don't fix it".  I get that the current scheme is deterring you some people from investing, but that's OK.  We have lots of investment already.

Edit: changed the last paragraph to make it less personal

Check out this post under services if you can program and are interested in making some coins:
[WTB]  An Auto-Invest/Divest Bot Script for Just-Dice - 4 BTC Bounty
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wtb-an-auto-investdivest-bot-script-for-just-dice-4-btc-bounty-bonuses-263522

House tops 2,000 BTC  



Albeit short lived, for now...

I'd like to put in another vote to implement this system. The counterparty risk is way too high to rationally justify allocating a considerable amount of ones capital to just-dice. And time is not making it any better. As the total funds increase the motivation to run away with the funds, or the chance of getting robbed, are also increasing.

What do you think dooglus?

celeste has gone for good ?

Also you shouldn't be surprised if we have another good week.

Unless of course you have more information than we do.

I've seen the Historical site profit graph so won't be surprised, I'm still relying on investor's fallacy to help me along though, that & astrology

It has been a good week.  Please don't be too surprised when we have losing weeks!

One week after having started to back the house bankroll I am extremely happy with my share of the edge so far, thanks doog & Deb!

Can't you just open the image in a new tab?

That image can't be any less transperant

Oh, didn't know there were different styles for this forum, I just used a simple online LaTeX generator.

The equation reads:

Sqrt( Sum( c_i (0.99 b_i)² p_i (1 - p_i) ) )
where you sum over each line from the db-dump you posted (bets-by-bet-and-chance.txt), taking the count, the bet-size and chance.

If you instead have a dataset containing each individual bet, you remove the c_i from the equation and sum over all bets. At the end, take the square root.

This value can be easily updated in realtime by storing the sum (before taking the root) and adding (0.99 b)² p (p - 1) to it each time a bet is made. Then to display the expected standard deviation, simply take the square root. From this you could calculate the z-value by dividing the difference between the current house profits and the expected house profits (= 1% of amount wagered) by this expected standard deviation. If JD results are a perfect normal distribution, then any z-value between -2 and 2 is within the 95% confidence interval.

Do you have a version that is less transparent?  I'm finding it hard to read.

Your code assumes that the whale always makes a maximum bet at 2X odds... as opposed to a smaller bet at higher odds for the same maximum profit, which would lead to higher variance.  So this is not the most aggressive whale scenario.  The database dump shows a number of largish bets at high odds.

As for "the house always wins in the end", can we quantify "in the end"?  Could be a long time, if a large drawdown reduces the maximum profit to the point that the whales leave.

That equation is incorrect. I corrected it a few posts later and computed the expected standard deviation with a db-dump dooglus made:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2778468

It's actually pretty easy (math/data-wise anyway) to keep the standard deviation of expected profits (and the corresponding z-factor of the achieved profit of the site) updated in real time.

Rannasha calculated the formula for find 1 Standard Deviation in this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2778245

I was wrong

Yes.  It's just 1% of the total wagers.


I expect it would be easiest if I generated it.  Do you know how to calculate it?

any way to get a graph just like ^, but overlay colors to represent standard deviations away from the expected value? I.e. green along the EV line, changing to yellow and red after getting 1 and 2 standard deviations away.

any suggestions how I could do something like that?

Historical site profit graph:

Sometimes on J-D, someone is crazy.