Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 196.

stripykitteh

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1001

CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Quote from: qxzn on July 21, 2013, 05:20:54 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with 550,000 btc gambled, the expected house take right now is about 5500 coins, right?

Has anyone calculated out standard devs and such?

In lieu of detailed stats on bet sizes and such, I can tell you that the site was about 1800BTC up when turnover was at 180KBTC, about a week ago. I think until that point almost all of the betting was from small fish.

Since then several whales have been betting big and doing well.

You might be interested to see the results of this simulation that I ran a few days ago. It basically takes as a starting point that there is a whale with a bankroll comparable to the house's bankroll, and the whale bets the maximum until one side or the other goes broke (i.e., the most extreme and aggressive whale scenario theoretically possible).

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2762706
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2765772

It is not uncommon for the house to go way, way down to such a whale (like 80% or more). So the house being 5,500BTC down vs expectation isn't particularly shocking, if most of the turnover was coming from max bets, or close to max bets (without seeing the stats no-one can say if this is true or not). The good news is the house always wins in the end.

thy

hero member

Activity: 685

Merit: 500

Quote from: qxzn on July 21, 2013, 05:20:54 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with 550,000 btc gambled, the expected house take right now is about 5500 coins, right?

Has anyone calculated out standard devs and such?

House is expected to be at + 5 500 BTC on avg yes.

Quote from: dooglus on July 21, 2013, 07:42:12 PM

Quote from: Rannasha on July 21, 2013, 05:51:24 PM

We can't calculate standard deviations since we don't know which bets (chance & amount wagered) where made how often. Dooglus could run this computation, with database acces.

What do you need to do the calculation? I'll get it for you.

Is a list of (bet size) and (number of times that bet size happened) enough?

Or do you want it grouped ? Or even by (bet size) (chance) and (win/loss)?

I'm not sure what you need exactly to work out whatever you can work out.

He will probably need it at number of bets grouped by (bet size) and (chance) to be able to calculate standard deviations, if it's to heavy to calculate on all bets, maby it's enouth to skip all dust, and just calculate on bets at 1 btc or larger or something ?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Rannasha on July 21, 2013, 05:51:24 PM

We can't calculate standard deviations since we don't know which bets (chance & amount wagered) where made how often. Dooglus could run this computation, with database acces.

What do you need to do the calculation? I'll get it for you.

Is a list of (bet size) and (number of times that bet size happened) enough?

Or do you want it grouped by (bet size) and (chance)? Or even by (bet size) (chance) and (win/loss)?

I'm not sure what you need exactly to work out whatever you can work out.

Rannasha

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: qxzn on July 21, 2013, 05:20:54 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with 550,000 btc gambled, the expected house take right now is about 5500 coins, right?

Has anyone calculated out standard devs and such?

We can't calculate standard deviations since we don't know which bets (chance & amount wagered) where made how often. Dooglus could run this computation, with database acces.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: qxzn on July 21, 2013, 05:20:54 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with 550,000 btc gambled, the expected house take right now is about 5500 coins, right?

Has anyone calculated out standard devs and such?

Try thinking like a gambler: house has had bad luck... so it's bound to get a lot better now Wink

invest!

qxzn

hero member

Activity: 609

Merit: 505

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with 550,000 btc gambled, the expected house take right now is about 5500 coins, right?

Has anyone calculated out standard devs and such?

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

finally got around to checking out the site. This is an improvement to sd in every way. Love the keyboard control and the investing feature.

charts would be a nice addition.

congrats dooglus!

qxzn

hero member

Activity: 609

Merit: 505

I think Just Dice is awesome just like it is, and would love to see what happens over the next several months if it remains relatively stable as-is.

My one concern is whether or not it's game-able (through poor random number generation, for example). There's enough money at stake that many folks are bound to try.

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: bobboooiie on July 21, 2013, 03:10:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 21, 2013, 03:06:29 PM

I can't believe how much is being gambled. How many different whales are active? 2? 3?

Countless! The celeste story made even me feel like I should take a shot at just dice

JD is addictive and Iam pretty sure whole "be the bank" concept is actually great for both sides of business because even investors divest and gamble a lot of times even though that would normally not. That would be my guess why JD skyrocketed

I just hope the site and operator can make some sort of regular profit. Eventually, investors may flee and if dooglas is not making enough from commission to cover server expenses plus his time, he will need to make changes or shut down. Hopefully, more whales will mean lower variance and a more reliable, even if modest, profit for the operator and investors.

bobboooiie

hero member

Activity: 656

Merit: 500

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 21, 2013, 03:06:29 PM

I can't believe how much is being gambled. How many different whales are active? 2? 3?

Countless! The celeste story made even me feel like I should take a shot at just dice

JD is addictive and Iam pretty sure whole "be the bank" concept is actually great for both sides of business because even investors divest and gamble a lot of times even though that would normally not. That would be my guess why JD skyrocketed

mechs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

It is investing if you have a reasonable chance of predicting the outcome.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

I can't believe how much is being gambled. How many different whales are frequenting the website? 2? 3?

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: dooglus on July 21, 2013, 03:00:38 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 21, 2013, 02:57:01 PM

In gambling the chances of winning are always lower than losing.

So playing the lottery when the jackpot is high enough to give me positive expectation isn't gambling? Counting cards at the blackjack table isn't gambling? Playing through a 200% casino deposit bonus with +EV isn't gambling? What about playing poker against someone who plays badly?

I would say these were all gambling, even though they all have a positive expectation.

Good points. You are right. Even in gambling you can have higher chances of winning than losing.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Is there a difference between gambling and investing?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 21, 2013, 02:57:01 PM

In gambling the chances of winning are always lower than losing.

So playing the lottery when the jackpot is high enough to give me positive expectation isn't gambling? Counting cards at the blackjack table isn't gambling? Playing through a 200% casino deposit bonus with +EV isn't gambling? What about playing poker against someone who plays badly?

I would say these were all gambling, even though they all have a positive expectation.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: wolverine.ks on July 21, 2013, 02:45:56 PM

JD would kick you out as an investor if you actually invested btc's werent enough to cover the bet? Has the gambler already won or is this hypothetical, in which case how do you calculate the max payout if you are at the same time kicking people out for not covering?

If the amount they have on-site is less than 1% of their total onsite and off then a "force-divest-all" happens, since they are no longer able to cover the required 1% of their total. This is before the gambler bets, so we don't find ourselves in the position of being unable to pay out a max profit that we promised.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: mechs on July 21, 2013, 02:05:49 PM

Quote from: maqifrnswa on July 21, 2013, 02:03:56 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

GAMBLING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT!

but investing in gambling is
https://www.google.com/finance?q=czr&ei=lyLsUcipFMeTqQGg2AE
https://www.google.com/finance?q=mgm&ei=aSLsUbCrFoGIqgH-IA
https://www.google.com/finance?q=lvs&ei=eCLsUdCaJoWFrgGEuAE
https://www.google.com/finance?q=wynn&ei=gyLsUejOEoKGrgHQxQE

Very true, though the risk/rewards of this type of investment are both much higher. Those other casino companies have other methods of revenue generation and other costs not related to ganbling. I am also not sure if this investment is more investing or just passive gambling. Let's just call it speculating!

I agree, it's speculating. It is not passive gambling though.

In gambling the chances of winning are always lower than losing.

In contrast, when investing or speculating, if done well, your chances of winning are higher than losing.

I agree it's more speculating than investing because in investing the risk is generally lower, but so is the potential reward. In speculating the potential reward is mostly higher, but so is the risk since there is a reasonable chance to lose 80% of your investment in a few months, but also a chance to double/triple your bitcoins in a few months. (Is this correct? Or can this happen in only a few weeks?)

When investing you don't want such high chance to lose that much in such short time frame. I see myself as an investor, but when in bitcoin land I'm a speculator, a rational one hopefully Wink

Bitcoin investments are only a small part of my portfolio (25%) so overall my total portfolio cannot make such huge losses nor profits as say an investment in just-dice or bitcoins.

Just-dice is bitcoin on steroids Cool

Very risky!

But big potential reward.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: wolverine.ks on July 21, 2013, 02:18:12 PM

if they have ~100% of the bankroll, and JD can only claim 1 btc from them in the likely case that a gambler wins, then the maximum gambler profit ~ 1 btc, even though the house 'has' 100M btc.

so the maximum payout on any bet, is roughly equal to the number of btc's actually invested by the investor that claims the most 'storage' btc's invested, in this case Investor A.

so in this case, a malicious investor risks 1 btc, there are no costs associated with claiming 100M storage btc's, and had effectively killed JD by reducing the max payout from its current 250btc down to 1 btc.

OK, so if they claim to have 100M and only deposit 1 BTC, they don't get into the bankroll at all. You have to put up at least 1% of your total claimed roll or you don't get to invest.

So let's say they deposit 1 BTC and claim 99 locally. A total of 100 BTC, risking 1. That just adds 1 to the max profit. All other investors also contribute 1% of their total roll to the max profit too.

No investor can reduce the max profit by more than they contribute to the max profit, and they do so by divesting.

Is that clearer?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: wolverine.ks on July 21, 2013, 02:18:12 PM

hypothetically, if Investor A gives dooglus 1 btc, and then claims 100M btc in 'storage' they are increasing their variance and their percentage of the house to roughly 100% assuming current invested amount.

Is that a typo? The "local" amount can't be more than 99 times the deposited amount or liquidation is forced. They have to have at least 1% of the sum of (deposited + local) in their investment on the site, or I can't take the 1% they risk per roll.

wolverine.ks

sr. member

Activity: 375

Merit: 250

Quote from: trout on July 21, 2013, 02:26:40 PM

there are risk-free (for the site) ways to implement self-storage.

what is a risk free way of self storage?

Quote from: trout on July 21, 2013, 02:26:40 PM

The site should divest all investor's funds the moment the amount
on-site is equal or smaller than would be required to pay the max bet.

JD would kick you out as an investor if you actually invested btc's werent enough to cover the bet? Has the gambler already won or is this hypothetical, in which case how do you calculate the max payout if you are at the same time kicking people out for not covering?

trout

sr. member

Activity: 333

Merit: 252

there are risk-free (for the site) ways to implement self-storage.

The site should divest all investor's funds the moment the amount
on-site is equal or smaller than would be required to pay the max bet.

This way investor can't cheat by claiming to have too much funds

Actually, claiming to have much more than you have (and pretending to invest it)
is a losing strategy (in the long run, of course)

Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 196. (Read 435353 times)