Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 41.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: boumalo on April 15, 2014, 08:49:37 AM

Quote from: ovdsm on April 15, 2014, 05:55:22 AM

where's the rest ~30k?

maybe its expected result was -25K but he finished +5K

Yes, it's something like that. The extra 30k (or whatever - it's hard to put accurate numbers on it because he constantly switched accounts and so it was hard to know which accounts were him) is the amount nakowa should have lost but didn't.

To make a cleaner example / thought experiment:

If someone comes to the site, deposits 10k BTC, bets it over and over again, making a total of 3 million BTC wagered, and ends up breaking even, the expected profit increases by 30k BTC, but the actual profit doesn't change. The shortfall increases by 30k. Where is the missing 30k? The player doesn't have it - he only deposited 10k BTC and withdrew 10k BTC. The site doesn't have it. It's merely a shortfall of expectation, I guess.

TwinWinNerD

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1001

CEO Bitpanda.com

Quote from: dooglus on April 15, 2014, 12:15:33 PM

Quote from: Lohoris on April 15, 2014, 05:30:00 AM

Well, he also played with some virtual money accidentally credited to his account.
He lost that money, which is not much different from not getting it in the first place.
Still, you might consider he owes that money to the site anyway, since technically he actually played and lost it.

He claims that someone else played it without his permission. But let's not go digging all this up again, eh?

Haha good ol' memories Cheesy

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Lohoris on April 15, 2014, 05:30:00 AM

Well, he also played with some virtual money accidentally credited to his account.
He lost that money, which is not much different from not getting it in the first place.
Still, you might consider he owes that money to the site anyway, since technically he actually played and lost it.

He claims that someone else played it without his permission. But let's not go digging all this up again, eh?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Rannasha on April 15, 2014, 04:55:12 AM

Looks like GNUPlot.

That's right.

BayAreaCoins

legendary

Activity: 4004

Merit: 1250

Owner at AltQuick.com

Quote from: boumalo on April 15, 2014, 08:49:37 AM

Quote from: Rannasha on April 15, 2014, 08:21:23 AM

Quote from: ovdsm on April 15, 2014, 05:55:22 AM

but then again - if the total expected profit is ~50k, actual profit is ~15k and knowing nakowa left with ~5k, still - where's the rest ~30k?

Nakowa contributed to a lot of the wager-volume. If you remove his bets from the equation, not only does the profit-figure change, but the total amount wagered does too. It would go down, considerably, which drops the expected profit as well.

The profit is 35k less than the expected profit but if nakowa finished at +5K he is up way more compared to the expected result of its play : maybe its expected result was -25K but he finished +5K

It seems he stopped playing after the max bet went from 1% of the bankroll to 0.25%; it is 0.5% now

1 percent as a large investor is scary as shit
I support the max bet the way it is now for sure.

boumalo

legendary

Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Rannasha on April 15, 2014, 08:21:23 AM

Quote from: ovdsm on April 15, 2014, 05:55:22 AM

but then again - if the total expected profit is ~50k, actual profit is ~15k and knowing nakowa left with ~5k, still - where's the rest ~30k?

Nakowa contributed to a lot of the wager-volume. If you remove his bets from the equation, not only does the profit-figure change, but the total amount wagered does too. It would go down, considerably, which drops the expected profit as well.

The profit is 35k less than the expected profit but if nakowa finished at +5K he is up way more compared to the expected result of its play : maybe its expected result was -25K but he finished +5K

It seems he stopped playing after the max bet went from 1% of the bankroll to 0.25%; it is 0.5% now

Rannasha

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: ovdsm on April 15, 2014, 05:55:22 AM

but then again - if the total expected profit is ~50k, actual profit is ~15k and knowing nakowa left with ~5k, still - where's the rest ~30k?

Nakowa contributed to a lot of the wager-volume. If you remove his bets from the equation, not only does the profit-figure change, but the total amount wagered does too. It would go down, considerably, which drops the expected profit as well.

ovdsm

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 0

but then again - if the total expected profit is ~50k, actual profit is ~15k and knowing nakowa left with ~5k, still - where's the rest ~30k?

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Quote from: maqifrnswa on April 11, 2014, 04:49:55 PM

Quote from: ovdsm on April 11, 2014, 09:51:54 AM

interesting graphs.

however, myself, as one, who discovered JD in mid Dec and invested only in early Jan, I realize I miss some important background. what's the tl;dr story about nakowa? was it allegedly cheating?

no, just a whale that would cause huge variance and quit while he was ahead. If he kept playing, he'd lose eventually - but he was "smart" and stopped playing.

Well, he also played with some virtual money accidentally credited to his account.
He lost that money, which is not much different from not getting it in the first place.
Still, you might consider he owes that money to the site anyway, since technically he actually played and lost it.

Rannasha

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Looks like GNUPlot.

HurtK

newbie

Activity: 31

Merit: 0

Quote from: dooglus on April 10, 2014, 01:25:09 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin Betting Guide on April 09, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

When I first saw JD the site profit was 0.24%, now its 0.3%. What was it at the low point after that whale won a bunch?

We recently broke 0.3% for the first time since nakowa played back in September. It prompted me to make charts showing how the profit percentage has changed over time. These charts show the actual percentage over time, and corresponding percentages:

Quote from: Bitcoin Betting Guide on April 09, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

I am interested to know peoples real life investment returns on JD if anyone would share. Cheers

There's only one investor who:

* invested on the day of launch, and
* hasn't touched that investment since

I wish I have made an account on the day of launch and put 1 BTC into it to have a reference to show people, but I didn't. So here's that investor's history:

He invested 0.01077792 in June 2013 and now has 0.01437991. That's a 33.42% growth in 10 months.

what tool are you using to make these graphs, i like it, they are clean and simple.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Rannasha on April 15, 2014, 03:37:31 AM

As you mentioned, BitcoinProject doesn't include data from the start of JD, the graphs Dooglus has made do.

Right. He set expected profit equal to actual profit when he started collecting data. Click 'all' and see how the two lines meet at the left.

Rannasha

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: ovdsm on April 15, 2014, 03:34:30 AM

at the moment, it says that 1% profit edge is 15,678 BTC, when your graph show it to be above 50.000 BTC. not difficult to understand, which figure is correct.

one thing i come up with is maybe it's because bitcoinproject.net stats starts only from 12 Oct 2013, which is after nakowa, but then again - how this could previous data have not been taken into consideration?

As you mentioned, BitcoinProject doesn't include data from the start of JD, the graphs Dooglus has made do.

ovdsm

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 0

Quote from: dooglus on April 10, 2014, 01:25:09 PM

We recently broke 0.3% for the first time since nakowa played back in September. It prompted me to make charts showing how the profit percentage has changed over time. These charts show the actual percentage over time, and corresponding percentages:

http://i.imgur.com/AkeagnJ.png

http://i.imgur.com/UJwN7Uv.png

dooglus, are there any plans to implement own, not user-contributed data analysis tools?

bitcoinproject.net is really good, especially for being live-stats, however, i now wonder, why it does not correspond with your graphs above:

http://i.imgur.com/r1SaJ0cl.png?1

at the moment, it says that 1% profit edge is 15,678 BTC, when your graph show it to be above 50.000 BTC. not difficult to understand, which figure is correct.

one thing i come up with is maybe it's because bitcoinproject.net stats starts only from 12 Oct 2013, which is after nakowa, but then again - how this could previous data have not been taken into consideration?

maqifrnswa

sr. member

Activity: 454

Merit: 252

Quote from: ovdsm on April 11, 2014, 09:51:54 AM

interesting graphs.

however, myself, as one, who discovered JD in mid Dec and invested only in early Jan, I realize I miss some important background. what's the tl;dr story about nakowa? was it allegedly cheating?

no, just a whale that would cause huge variance and quit while he was ahead. If he kept playing, he'd lose eventually - but he was "smart" and stopped playing.

ovdsm

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 0

interesting graphs.

however, myself, as one, who discovered JD in mid Dec and invested only in early Jan, I realize I miss some important background. what's the tl;dr story about nakowa? was it allegedly cheating?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Bitcoin Betting Guide on April 09, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

When I first saw JD the site profit was 0.24%, now its 0.3%. What was it at the low point after that whale won a bunch?

We recently broke 0.3% for the first time since nakowa played back in September. It prompted me to make charts showing how the profit percentage has changed over time. These charts show the actual percentage over time, and corresponding percentages:

Quote from: Bitcoin Betting Guide on April 09, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

I am interested to know peoples real life investment returns on JD if anyone would share. Cheers

There's only one investor who:

* invested on the day of launch, and
* hasn't touched that investment since

I wish I have made an account on the day of launch and put 1 BTC into it to have a reference to show people, but I didn't. So here's that investor's history:

He invested 0.01077792 in June 2013 and now has 0.01437991. That's a 33.42% growth in 10 months.

DieCommieScum

full member

Activity: 128

Merit: 100

Quote from: Bitcoin Betting Guide on April 09, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

When I first saw JD the site profit was 0.24%, now its 0.3%. What was it at the low point after that whale won a bunch?

I am interested to know peoples real life investment returns on JD if anyone would share. Cheers

My investment has varied, but since the end of November I've profited just over .6btc and I'd say my average invest has been around 3.5btc

Bitcoin Betting Guide

full member

Activity: 180

Merit: 100

I made a page about Just Dice, particularly how awesome the invest feature is. There is also a video demo. For most JD veterans in this thread its stuff you already know but I hope it will be useful to JD n00bs. Feedback Welcome.

http://www.bitcoin-dice-guide.com/just-dice-a-gambling-investment-revolution/

There is one thing it brings up that would be of interest to JD veterans

"other bet types and payout structures like being able to bet you will roll either over X or under Y in one bet, betting you will roll in between X and Y, insurance and progressive jackpot payouts."

And that is just keeping it simple. My big idea is to have social, communal betting where for example every minute a 50/50 chance bet happens with roll high selected. Everyone can bet on this roll and everyone wins or loses together. Think how awesome the chat would be between players and investors. You could then have a 25% and 75% communal role happening for people who prefere those odds. And have whether the bet is for over or under to be decided by consensus. So in the minute leading up to the bet when you enter your stake you vote high or low and the majority decides the bet!

Whatdoyarecon?

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: Bitcoin Betting Guide on April 09, 2014, 06:29:42 PM

When I first saw JD the site profit was 0.24%, now its 0.3%. What was it at the low point after that whale won a bunch?

I am interested to know peoples real life investment returns on JD if anyone would share. Cheers

I invested in February, but since the amount varied I don't have an exact number how much I made. Roughly between 5-10%.

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