Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 90. (Read 435357 times)

Doog, let me ask you a question just made to you on the chat and that peaked my interest:


I wonder that too. Normally casinos use their own money to fund their roll, and thus they protect it. In this case, your profit is in the commissions and you are actually totally divested. If that's your business model, I'm fine with it. I would just like to know if:

a) are you acting like the money in the bankroll was yours? Not 100%, but at least 50% - I make this differentiation because the "dilution" part is one of the things that is killing investors with losses.

if not:

b) what would you do if a big part of the casino's roll was yours?

No FUD intended, and no harsh feeling from me, but for me the fact you are 100% divested is very telling, and I'm very interested on your reasoned answers on the above.

Thank you for addressing our concerns, as always...

too small house edge, Doog....

Damn. I would already be happy with 1 of his bet outcomes. My faucet payout would increase extremely.

He just made the ten twelve biggest bets since Just-Dice started.  Previously the biggest bet was Vinka's 640 BTC at 90% which lost.

2013-10-02 07:34:43 *** fuckit (169618) [#148575723] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:34:53 *** fuckit (169618) [#148575921] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:35:39 *** fuckit (169618) [#148576957] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:42:12 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:43:30 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:48:30 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:49:13 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:51:02 *** fuckit (169618) [#148591949] bet 2896.4543159 BTC at 92% and won 220.38240367 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:01:57 *** fuckit (169618) [#148601047] bet 3116.83674877 BTC at 93% and won 201.08624487 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:12:54 *** fuckit (169618) [#148612542] bet 3317.92314519 BTC at 93% and won 214.05956096 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:19:29 *** fuckit (169618) [#148618898] bet 3533.97982021 BTC at 95% and won 148.79913916 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:21:04 *** fuckit (169618) [#148620446] bet 3682.77897204 BTC at 95% and won 155.06436614 BTC ***

Then he withdrew: https://blockchain.info/tx/fa6b05b537f1341cbf3c10c74088badb9489a2f282adf17caa99c30f1db55068

biggest bets in last 52 weeks

+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| betid     | bet           | profit       | chance | uid    | date                |
+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| 148620446 | 3682.77897204 | 155.06436614 |     95 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:21:04 |
| 148618898 | 3533.97982021 | 148.79913916 |     95 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:19:29 |
| 148612542 | 3317.92314519 | 214.05956096 |     93 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:12:55 |
| 148601047 | 3116.83674877 | 201.08624487 |     93 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:01:57 |
| 148591949 |  2896.4543159 | 220.38240367 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:51:03 |
| 148590882 |  2513.9037274 | 191.27529235 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:49:14 |
| 148590355 |  2513.9037274 | 191.27529235 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:48:31 |
| 148585325 | 2336.15313005 | 177.75078975 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:43:31 |
| 148584193 | 2170.97057849 | 165.18255156 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:42:13 |
| 148576957 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:35:40 |
| 148575921 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:53 |
| 148575723 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:43 |
|  14740956 |           640 |         -640 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-07 18:03:05 |
|   7093577 |  561.29526541 |   5.72750179 |     98 |     35 | 2013-06-29 04:59:20 |
|  13865610 |           500 |           50 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-06 04:06:40 |

Most heroic thing I've ever seen:

01:21:04 *** fuckit (169618) [#148620446] bet 3682.77897204 BTC at 95% and won 155.06436614 BTC ***

It probably does. Sorry about that, I should learn to read. The explanation is right there in the OP.

I guess he just tried to cover his 35% loss by reckless gambling, leaving his fellow investors holding a bigger bag.

Well, that's life, and I guess that finally he realized that funding a casino is not a "long term, stable investment"

Daytrading is not creating -EV for long term investors, but a cold hard fact remains: those who invested at site's inception and never divested are now stuck with a huge +30% loss, despite of the +3M btc and 150M bets wagered. Crazy stuff, as the numbers seem large enough for the house edge to be working fine.

Anyhow, your point about a divestment fee discouraging divesting to gamble is very spot on, I guess we are all just brainstorming to find a solution that makes the site more profitable for investors that fund the bankroll without divesting and causing "bank runs" that make you and other investors nervous.

Mechs: I criticized you hard for putting pressure on doog to cripple max profit, and I still think that was a big mistake. We went to 1/4 Kelly in the middle of a session in which Nakowa lost 5k. You and some others believe this loss was caused precisely by lowering max profit - I believe that's baseless, lucky numbers didn't change and IMO a higher max profit would have led Nakowa to lose way more, but we will never be able to find out who is right.

Nevertheless, I perfectly understand the reasons that made you nervous, and I felt extremely bad for you when I read about your loss. I'm very happy you sorted it out, that would have been a mind blowing loss.

Just let me recommend you against "picking pennies on a train track" by betting thousands of coins at 92% odds, you will want to kill yourself if you'd lose such an amount in such a stupid way now that your anger is taking over.

Oh, damn. Well, gamblers will be gamblers. I bet that he will come back and do the same again.

He just withdrew 3100 BTC. Nice winnings.

Well, let's look at it positively. If he continues like this he will lose it. Even 92% can go wrong.

I guess...

00:42:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
00:43:32 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
00:48:31 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
00:49:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***

I don't list amounts less than 0.0001 BTC, but the total includes them.  Does that account for the difference?

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

And now:


biggest bets in last 52 weeks

+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| betid     | bet           | profit       | chance | uid    | date                |
+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| 148576957 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:35:40 |
| 148575921 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:53 |
| 148575723 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:43 |
|  14740956 |           640 |         -640 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-07 18:03:05 |

I might add that the sums of (at least) the last two balances (8 & 15 sept) don't add up.

The sums I get are 51902.59070647 and 52879.66747491 respectively.

I think you're still misspeaking.

So far it has been negative for them, but not negative EV.  The expectation was positive, but the actual result was negative.

I think the main problem with this "choose a percentage" scheme is that it causes huge swings in the bankroll:

A day-trader divests, causing every other investor's share of the bankroll to increase (percentage-wise).  All the ones who have set a percentage then auto-divest to get their percentage share back to the amount they requested.  This magnifies the effect of the day trader's divest, since now all the percentage investors divest in unison.  All the regular non-percentage investors are affected even worse than under the current system.  So there's an incentive for them to become percentage investors too.  Eventually everyone is a percentage investor, causing all investors to invest and divest in unison, resulting in massive volatility in the bankroll.

Maybe?

I know that "EV" is the new cool buzzword of the Bitcoin-gambling-sector that should be used as much as possible to maximize coolness (just like "ROI" for the mining-people), but can we at least pretend that EV stands for "Expectation Value" and therefore does not apply when discussing past results.

Assuming that JD is fair and players aren't cheating, the expectation value of "daytrading", compared to staying invested, is negative. Anyone believing they can score a consistent profit on the long term with daytrading is falling for the gambler's fallacy.

Daytrading does decrease ones exposure to volatility caused by whales (singular, in case of JD) at the cost of increasing the exposure to volatility of those remaining invested. And since Nakowa has had very good luck, it's not surprising that daytraders have on average performed better than those that remained invested. If Nakowas luck turns, so will that of the daytraders.

I don't agree that daytraders are creating negative EV for long term investors.  By being divested part of the time they increase the long term investor's share of the profits, increasing their EV.

It's common for players on the site to invest between playing sessions.  I don't think it's fair to penalise them doing so by charging them an extra fee each time they divest to play.  It makes them less likely to play at all.