Lastly, this has been a gut-wrenching experience as an investor. I was prepared for losses, but not for the amounts sustained for 3 reasons:
1. The speed and improbability of the losses. We have huge losses that occur in very short order
2. Magificaition of losses inflicted upon passive investors at those who successfully "day trade" their investment. These investors sustain bigger losses than the site
3. Much harder to get back to even since investor take losses and then get diluted by new investor (or day trading ones) after the drop. In the last example, Nakowa brought the site down to 36k BTC and then invested over 12k himself diluting all other investors by over 25%. He causes losses (due to whatever improbable mechanism) on his wagers and then he profits from the sites over the smaller wagers which tend to behave +EV. It seems Nakowa has been able to overcome the +EV for his large bets for whatever reason (variance, luck, a good system, a flaw in RNG or cheating)
At the very least, the risks of points 2 & 3 should be added to the FAQ in the name of full disclosure. I must admit my morale is shot to hell at this point looking at 30%+ losses and greatly diluted bankroll percentage due to all the reinvestment (by nakowa and daytraders).
Please, please take this in the spirit in which it's intended. I'm not trying to mock you.
Mechs, in all honesty, I think you really should consider divesting, or at least severely reducing your investment. You don't seem to take this well.
I sympathize with you. I once played poker pretty regularly, and I was decent at it. Eventually I made my way up the limits a bit, but then I had a string of bad beats at a couple grand a pop, and I realized it was too much, I couldn't take the swings. So I stopped and played less regularly, and only 1-3NL $100 max tables. Here on Just Dice, same deal, I'd love to put in a hundred BTC, but it's too much risk for me. So I was at 15btc for a while, and with the recent variance I dropped to 10. I'm in it more because I find the website to be fascinating than because I think it's a rock solid investment (in fact, I think investment is a misnomer here).
From your postings I think it's abundantly clear that this is too much risk/variance for you. Maybe just re-invest when there's variable risk, or doog drops to 1/10 kelly or something. But not your full stack of Bitcoins.
I think your reply was very polite. I went into this investment realizing I could lose coins - even all of them due to fraud. I did not anticipate the amount and speed through "normal" gambling activity since noone could predict a Nakowa and the results he has had. The max profit did not really enter into the equation when first considering this investment since I figured noone would be spamming 300+ BTC bets. Obviously, in hindsight, this was an incorrect assumption. My dilemma, like the majority of investors (esp the passive ones), is I am already significantly down in my investment but I do believe in the math. To quit when down due to variance is the exact opposite thing to do. I am prepared to lose the entire investment without BKing myself - even if Doog ran off with the coins or was robbed, or etc.
It just that we are so far from what would be considered likely results that it is hard to reconcile. And when you are 35% down and getting constantly diluted, it is frustrating indeed. The house luck suggests a 0.51% historical edge which is perplexing to me after 150M bets. Anyway, I know I am merely vocalizing the concerns of many other investors and concerns Doog himself has brought up.
i'm scared to ask what that means, exactly
