Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 97. (Read 435457 times)

Same for me, at some point I saw the investment changing of 12K (from 36 to 48), so I guess there is a big investor there who joined after some losses and raised the break even point.

Looks like only the braves got a lot to lose from the situation...

Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.

That is because after nakowa damaged the house for another 1500, he then invested 12k into the site

Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.

When we're at +3k, +6k should be reached more than twice as often as -3k in theory, since it's twice as close, and in the direction favoured by the house edge.

Regarding day-trading, I have been of the opinion that it is largely irrelevant from the position of the day-trader: you have no knowledge of the next rolls, so if you believe you know when wins or losses are coming, you are falling for the same good'ole gambler's fallacy. Additionally, from the perspective of passive investors, ex-ante it's irrelevant because daytraders could just as easily divest before a huge drop as they could before a huge gain.

Also, don't forget that you're likely to only be hearing from those day traders that have done well, but not from those that do poorly. I'll break the silence of the failed daytraders right here: I tried it once and divested before a HUGE nakowa 7000btc runup, and then invested and immediately took an even bigger drop. F*ck that. So it's not all sunshine and happiness in daytrade land.

HOWEVER!!!

Watching yesterday's ridiculous action and reading the comment above from eltopo (There is no regression to the mean. If we're at +5000, we can go to +10000 as likely as to 0.) have made me realize something: while that statement is true, there is a way you can successfully daytrade because while you do not know future rolls, there is some publicly available info about the future. Bear with me:

IF:

A) You know nokawa follows a random walk, up and down, betting close to max bet, until he loses his entire last deposit OR he makes X BTC (for example, yesterday it was 2k + making up for his previous losses, so 5k)
B) You can see what his balance is (people seem to be able to do this, not sure how)
C) You can see when he is depositing again
D) All other betting going on is relatively so small that we can safely ignore it.

THEN:

A strategy where you divest when he is near losing his last deposit and invest when he is near reaching his goal, then you can make the decision to daytrade EV+ with respect to passive investing. This is because when he is near losing his entire deposit, you only stand to gain very little from him losing it all, and a lot to gain if he doesn't; similarly, when he is near his goal, you stand to lose little if he reaches his goal as compared to how much you stand to gain if he dips back down toward losing his latest deposit. Finally, because (somehow) people know how much his balance is and they see when he has incoming deposits, even if you divest and he loses another, say, 500BTC and loses his deposit, there will be a break while he reloads, so you can invest again and start a new "session".

The point is, like dooglus said, the downside to daytrading is that you might miss a huge 30k slide by nakowa at any point. But the problem with this is that you WON'T miss it (if you're paying attention and day trading), because you'll see nakowa lose his whole balance and then see the new deposit coming.


Does this make sense? So, this would push me toward being anti-daytrading being permitted, but so far I haven't heard any effective methods for preventing it given that you can open unlimited accounts.

[...] there is arguably negative consequences. If something has no positive side, and quite possibly a negative side, then it is only rational to get rid of it.

How does it work - do the copy bets get the same rolls as nakowa?

If not, I don't see anyone wanting to do it, and if so, we would quickly exceed the max profit per bet.

What do casinos do about that?  If I'm betting max bet on a blackjack hand, is a spectator allowed to bet on my hand as well?  Probably it's only allowed if the total bet doesn't exceed the table limit, right?

How about introducing "copy trades" like many forex brokers are offering. at JD it would mean "copy bets"

When the site is +3k coins, the chance of it going to -3k or 6k is exactly the same.

Not exactly, the chance is higher we're getting to +6k because of the house edge.

My favourite bit was "How can you trust me? Well, you can't..."

Really?  I think luck is supposed to approach around 101%.  Dooglus made a comment about it being above 101% before.

The site so far has had 145,551,114 bets and cumulative luck for all players is at 100.49%.  This seems like a large enough sample size that it should be converging on 100%.  With a 1% edge assuming the most common bet is a 2x 49.5% bet, it would seem a player luck of 100.49% essentially means a historical house edge of 0.51%.  Is that logic correct?  If so, is this a probable result with a 1% house edge?

This has been discussed lots of times before.  I have access to the server, and can see the server seeds.  That would allow me to cheat.  I've seen it suggested several times that I'm nakowa, for instance.  I don't know of a way to make the game provably fair for investors, but would be interested to find one.

For one thing it would put an end to emails threatening to expose me, like this one that came today:

bit coins

Jun 28 14:40:26    can i make bitcoin off this site?
Jun 28 14:40:34    what site
Jun 28 14:40:59    Ifthis one...
Jun 28 14:41:34    this is an irc channel
Jun 28 14:41:44    so no
Jun 28 14:41:47    what is an IRC Channel
Jun 28 14:41:59    nd what does it have to do with bitcoin
Jun 28 14:42:09    
Jun 28 14:42:35    not falling for the troll
Jun 28 14:43:11    its not a troll its a genuine question Im a noob to al this
Jun 28 14:43:17 *   FastLizard4 is now known as FastLizard4|zZzZ
Jun 28 14:43:50    hai
Jun 28 14:43:53    how do I short bitcoins
Jun 28 14:44:35    bitcoin303; this is IRC; a chat  protocol; you can talk about other people about bitcoin
Jun 28 14:46:19 *   ChanServ gives channel operator status to eir
Jun 28 14:46:20 *   eir removes ban on *!*@*80.137.173.218
Jun 28 14:46:20 *   eir removes channel operator status from eir
Jun 28 14:47:13    damn, no-one fell for my troll either
Jun 28 14:47:31    UukGoblin: Find someone willing to let you short them.

who could know the server feed? no one? IMHO it should be discussed if it is provably fair only for the player? but how about the investors? is JD provably fair for the investors?

Date: 2013-09-30 6:36pm
Subject: Hey dooglus   

Dear dooglus,

I noticed that you are a genius. Since you have database access to secret keys, you can predict the future outcome of dice rolls. For example, you dooglus (site owner), can create a "whale" account. Then login to your site's database, and find the secret key for "whale" account, AND then use this secret key to predict future dice rolls!

So... you are basically stealing money from investors by playing with your own money, and winning as the "big whale".

Of course, regular players cannot predict dice rolls, because they don't know the secret key. You however, know the secret key of any account in real-time!

I know, you are making a lot of money doing this, and I don't mind that... However I also want a littlebit money for discovering this loophole that you are using. Keep in mind, that I have NOT told this to anyone!

I offer you this:

Send me 400 bit coins to this address: 12xV47fNBVdjPtRSghgCAU7tFzQ6cYCuvp

AND I will keep my mouth shut, you have my promise. I admire you, and I will never break my word. How can you trust me? Well, you can't... But you have more promise, and I will respect you. This is a one time payment. I will never keep asking you for more money!

If I don't receive this payment ASAP (I will give you a 24 hour deadline). Then I will release this information to the general public, and all of the investors will pull out their money from your site! Be it in your chat room, on bitcoin forum etc... everywhere!

Of course, I am aware of the following actions that you may take: 1. You may ignore me, and will use the next 24 hours to steal as much money as you can, before I release this information to the public

OR

You can comply with me, by sending me 400 bit coins, and I will keep my mouth shut. By sending me the 400 bit coins, I will let you run your site a lot longer, and you will be able to make a lot more money!

I am actually very proud for discovering how you are doing this, and I want to get rewarded. Please think, and don't be greedy! Be smart. I will keep my silence. I promise!

Sincerely,
Your admirer

How about introducing "copy trades" like many forex brokers are offering. at JD it would mean "copy bets"
this would give many players the option to copy the whale bets and attract more customers from outside. the whale would feel flattered and will come more often to start his circus circus(show off). then the investors/casino would have more action/turnover and a better chance to make the money back in shorter time. sure thing that is only if he has no cheat in his sleeves, and if yes the cheat could come out much quicker

Interesting indeed. How do people see Nak balance, and his incoming deposit ?