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Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 97. (Read 435353 times)

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.

Same for me, at some point I saw the investment changing of 12K (from 36 to 48), so I guess there is a big investor there who joined after some losses and raised the break even point.

Looks like only the braves got a lot to lose from the situation...

The "big investor" is Nakowa, the whole 12k belong to him. I just read the chat logs, he seems to be past his delusion. He is said aprox. 1 hour ago he just realized that there is no flaw in the site, is just that the 1% house edge is so small that he can create huge variance and end up ahead in the short term by playing with his enormous bankroll... And he also said he realized that if he keeps playing forever he will lose it everything.

This said, I also checked the thread about statistical analysis of Satoshi Dice, precisely by Dooglus. Even with a 1.9% house edge, there were months that the site lost quite a lot of money... I'm now wondering how many billion bets we will need for the 1% edge to do its thing and thus investors to profit.
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.

Same for me, at some point I saw the investment changing of 12K (from 36 to 48), so I guess there is a big investor there who joined after some losses and raised the break even point.

Looks like only the braves got a lot to lose from the situation...
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.
That is because after nakowa damaged the house for another 1500, he then invested 12k into the site

So, after the 1k he won on Sunday after 14h of crazy gambling he took another 1.5k yesterday? Wow, Nakowa the annihilator. Luckily for us he is not a gambler Cheesy
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.
That is because after nakowa damaged the house for another 1500, he then invested 12k into the site
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Again my losses grow and my break even point increases in relation to the house profit... Yesterday at this exact point in house profit my losses were lower, and BTW my share in the house roll has been diluted dramatically.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
When the site is +3k coins, the chance of it going to -3k or 6k is exactly the same.

Not exactly, the chance is higher we're getting to +6k because of the house edge.

When we're at +3k, +6k should be reached more than twice as often as -3k in theory, since it's twice as close, and in the direction favoured by the house edge.

Right,  really suck at math Smiley
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
newbie
Activity: 59
Merit: 0
[...] there is arguably negative consequences. If something has no positive side, and quite possibly a negative side, then it is only rational to get rid of it.

First that you believe something has no positive side doesn't make it so. My belief for instance is that taking measures like the one you propose has no positive sides and quite possibly negative ones.

Besides your logic could be used to argue to get rid of gambling for which there's quite clearly a very big negative side and some would argue no positive side.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
How about introducing "copy trades" like many forex brokers are offering. at JD it would mean "copy bets"

How does it work - do the copy bets get the same rolls as nakowa?

If not, I don't see anyone wanting to do it, and if so, we would quickly exceed the max profit per bet.

What do casinos do about that?  If I'm betting max bet on a blackjack hand, is a spectator allowed to bet on my hand as well?  Probably it's only allowed if the total bet doesn't exceed the table limit, right?
Worst. Idea. Ever.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
How about introducing "copy trades" like many forex brokers are offering. at JD it would mean "copy bets"

How does it work - do the copy bets get the same rolls as nakowa?

If not, I don't see anyone wanting to do it, and if so, we would quickly exceed the max profit per bet.

What do casinos do about that?  If I'm betting max bet on a blackjack hand, is a spectator allowed to bet on my hand as well?  Probably it's only allowed if the total bet doesn't exceed the table limit, right?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
When the site is +3k coins, the chance of it going to -3k or 6k is exactly the same.

Not exactly, the chance is higher we're getting to +6k because of the house edge.

When we're at +3k, +6k should be reached more than twice as often as -3k in theory, since it's twice as close, and in the direction favoured by the house edge.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

My favourite bit was "How can you trust me? Well, you can't..." Smiley

yeah Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Really?  I think luck is supposed to approach around 101%.  Dooglus made a comment about it being above 101% before.

It should approach 100%.

It's 100 * actual_wins / expected_wins
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
The site so far has had 145,551,114 bets and cumulative luck for all players is at 100.49%.  This seems like a large enough sample size that it should be converging on 100%.  With a 1% edge assuming the most common bet is a 2x 49.5% bet, it would seem a player luck of 100.49% essentially means a historical house edge of 0.51%.  Is that logic correct?  If so, is this a probable result with a 1% house edge?

The discrepency is the result of the 0.0001% bet being played 1 million times and won twice instead of once as expected.

Calculate what 'luck' would be if every other bet went exactly as expected.  I think you get something very close to actual luck.

Code:
>>> (200*1 + 100*145.5) / 146.5
100.68259385665529

'luck' ignores stake, so a couple of lucky 990000x 1 satoshi bets increase player luck while costing very little.
elm
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
who could know the server feed? no one? IMHO it should be discussed if it is provably fair only for the player? but how about the investors? is JD provably fair for the investors?

This has been discussed lots of times before.  I have access to the server, and can see the server seeds.  That would allow me to cheat.  I've seen it suggested several times that I'm nakowa, for instance.  I don't know of a way to make the game provably fair for investors, but would be interested to find one.

For one thing it would put an end to emails threatening to expose me, like this one that came today:


yes it would nice to find a way to secure also the investors against any cheat. no question about this. I dont know how this could be done, but in 2013 there should be a way.

regarding the letter, thats a crying shame and I hope that there is a chance to find out who this is.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 500
Quote
bit coins

Reminds me of this guy:

Quote
Jun 28 14:40:26    can i make bitcoin off this site?
Jun 28 14:40:34    what site
Jun 28 14:40:59    Ifthis one...
Jun 28 14:41:34    this is an irc channel
Jun 28 14:41:44    so no
Jun 28 14:41:47    what is an IRC Channel
Jun 28 14:41:59    nd what does it have to do with bitcoin
Jun 28 14:42:09    Wink
Jun 28 14:42:35    not falling for the troll
Jun 28 14:43:11    its not a troll its a genuine question Im a noob to al this
Jun 28 14:43:17 *   FastLizard4 is now known as FastLizard4|zZzZ
Jun 28 14:43:50    hai
Jun 28 14:43:53    how do I short bitcoins
Jun 28 14:44:35    bitcoin303; this is IRC; a chat  protocol; you can talk about other people about bitcoin
Jun 28 14:46:19 *   ChanServ gives channel operator status to eir
Jun 28 14:46:20 *   eir removes ban on *!*@*80.137.173.218
Jun 28 14:46:20 *   eir removes channel operator status from eir
Jun 28 14:47:13    damn, no-one fell for my troll either Embarrassed
Jun 28 14:47:31    UukGoblin: Find someone willing to let you short them.

Probably the same guy.

Dooglus post the guy who wanted to buy the server seeds for 20 BTC.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
who could know the server feed? no one? IMHO it should be discussed if it is provably fair only for the player? but how about the investors? is JD provably fair for the investors?

This has been discussed lots of times before.  I have access to the server, and can see the server seeds.  That would allow me to cheat.  I've seen it suggested several times that I'm nakowa, for instance.  I don't know of a way to make the game provably fair for investors, but would be interested to find one.

For one thing it would put an end to emails threatening to expose me, like this one that came today:

Quote
Date: 2013-09-30 6:36pm
Subject: Hey dooglus   

Dear dooglus,

I noticed that you are a genius. Since you have database access to secret keys, you can predict the future outcome of dice rolls. For example, you dooglus (site owner), can create a "whale" account. Then login to your site's database, and find the secret key for "whale" account, AND then use this secret key to predict future dice rolls!

So... you are basically stealing money from investors by playing with your own money, and winning as the "big whale".

Of course, regular players cannot predict dice rolls, because they don't know the secret key. You however, know the secret key of any account in real-time!

I know, you are making a lot of money doing this, and I don't mind that... However I also want a littlebit money for discovering this loophole that you are using. Keep in mind, that I have NOT told this to anyone!

I offer you this:

Send me 400 bit coins to this address: 12xV47fNBVdjPtRSghgCAU7tFzQ6cYCuvp

AND I will keep my mouth shut, you have my promise. I admire you, and I will never break my word. How can you trust me? Well, you can't... But you have more promise, and I will respect you. This is a one time payment. I will never keep asking you for more money!

If I don't receive this payment ASAP (I will give you a 24 hour deadline). Then I will release this information to the general public, and all of the investors will pull out their money from your site! Be it in your chat room, on bitcoin forum etc... everywhere!

Of course, I am aware of the following actions that you may take: 1. You may ignore me, and will use the next 24 hours to steal as much money as you can, before I release this information to the public

OR

You can comply with me, by sending me 400 bit coins, and I will keep my mouth shut. By sending me the 400 bit coins, I will let you run your site a lot longer, and you will be able to make a lot more money!

I am actually very proud for discovering how you are doing this, and I want to get rewarded. Please think, and don't be greedy! Be smart. I will keep my silence. I promise!

Sincerely,
Your admirer

My favourite bit was "How can you trust me? Well, you can't..." Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 470
Merit: 250
How about introducing "copy trades" like many forex brokers are offering. at JD it would mean "copy bets"
this would give many players the option to copy the whale bets and attract more customers from outside. the whale would feel flattered and will come more often to start his circus circus(show off). then the investors/casino would have more action/turnover and a better chance to make the money back in shorter time. sure thing that is only if he has no cheat in his sleeves, and if yes the cheat could come out much quicker

Heh, assuming you could wager a smaller amount, I could see lots of people copying Nakowa.
elm
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
How about introducing "copy trades" like many forex brokers are offering. at JD it would mean "copy bets"
this would give many players the option to copy the whale bets and attract more customers from outside. the whale would feel flattered and will come more often to start his circus circus(show off). then the investors/casino would have more action/turnover and a better chance to make the money back in shorter time. sure thing that is only if he has no cheat in his sleeves, and if yes the cheat could come out much quicker
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Interesting indeed. How do people see Nak balance, and his incoming deposit ?

His old address: http://blockchain.info/address/17ziML8b3hZEKpYeJu3UeSx8TTBDKTDHoU
His new address: http://blockchain.info/address/17tZydgfQ6zvoAEtY6ebcaRk3Hsi2mVDUS

Currently all his money is on JD, so we can't see anything much.
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