Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 105.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice.

To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new.

Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket.

There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize.

6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET

For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties.

See you there!

thompsong89

newbie

Activity: 5

Merit: 0

Quote from: dooglus on June 06, 2014, 04:48:46 PM

Quote from: tucenaber on June 06, 2014, 10:38:44 AM

The answer seems to be 284 million rolls.

The question isn't:

"how many rolls do we need so that I have a >50% chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer",

or

"how many rolls do we need so that the expected longest streak is of length L".

The question is:

"we have seen N rolls, what is my chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer?"

Which is kind of the same thing, but in the opposite direction, and apparently much harder to calculate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i545nMJFtALaiqaH8TTolcqBYj0DmnHr38Up0DElurM/edit#gid=1829191626

Solution for a streak of L = 28, for N rolls, in tab "L = 28". Add rows to increase N. Unfortunately sheets is limited to 400k rows. Perhaps another different program could use my formula to compute the answer for N = 357MM?

boumalo

legendary

Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

Quote from: freedomno1 on June 08, 2014, 05:02:26 AM

Quote from: Yuki1988 on June 07, 2014, 01:05:34 PM

Quote from: chaosPT on June 07, 2014, 12:53:25 PM

The bot are for more gambler to come over , Do JD have any whale these day ?

Someone with an account name "theymos" lost hundreds of btc in JD yesterday.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27hk9o/someone_calling_themselves_theymos_is_gambling

That would explain why I thought a whale died or something when the bankroll went up 2.1% over the last 4 days
Although if Theymos was actually gambling his donations that would be one way of giving back Grin

It is obviously not the real Theymos Grin

If he was betting he would use a nickname Wink

The bitcointalk cold wallet addresses can be checked for balance

freedomno1

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1090

Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: Yuki1988 on June 07, 2014, 01:05:34 PM

Quote from: chaosPT on June 07, 2014, 12:53:25 PM

The bot are for more gambler to come over , Do JD have any whale these day ?

Someone with an account name "theymos" lost hundreds of btc in JD yesterday.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27hk9o/someone_calling_themselves_theymos_is_gambling

That would explain why I thought a whale died or something when the bankroll went up 2.1% over the last 4 days
Although if Theymos was actually gambling his donations that would be one way of giving back Grin

boumalo

legendary

Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

Quote from: dooglus on June 06, 2014, 10:15:49 PM

Quote from: iWin on June 06, 2014, 08:09:32 PM

Not sure if it's been asked before but will there ever be an autobet on this site?

I don't think it's a good idea.

Why would you want a program to bet for you on a site where there's no winning strategy?

If you dislike playing enough that you do want to actually do it, perhaps you should stop playing.

You can just send your coins directly to my donation address in the FAQ if you want to get rid of them quickly.

Some players love to autobet, it is actually fun and casinos are about giving fun to their clients

BTW I have been re-reading the first pages of this thread, it is fun, it brings us back

Yuki1988

hero member

Activity: 614

Merit: 500

Quote from: chaosPT on June 07, 2014, 12:53:25 PM

The bot are for more gambler to come over , Do JD have any whale these day ?

Someone with an account name "theymos" lost hundreds of btc in JD yesterday.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27hk9o/someone_calling_themselves_theymos_is_gambling

chaosPT

hero member

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: MoneyGod on June 07, 2014, 12:16:31 PM

Quote from: seuntjie on June 07, 2014, 04:59:17 AM

Quote from: iWin on June 06, 2014, 08:09:32 PM

Not sure if it's been asked before but will there ever be an autobet on this site?

Dooglus will probably never implement his own, but there are a few 3rd party bots you can use. Here is one:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/seuntjies-dicebot-multi-site-multi-strategy-betting-bot-for-dice-with-charts-307425

But I don't think these bots are helpful for these games because these most of games depend on luck also

The bot are for more gambler to come over , Do JD have any whale these day ?

MoneyGod

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: seuntjie on June 07, 2014, 04:59:17 AM

Quote from: iWin on June 06, 2014, 08:09:32 PM

Not sure if it's been asked before but will there ever be an autobet on this site?

Dooglus will probably never implement his own, but there are a few 3rd party bots you can use. Here is one:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/seuntjies-dicebot-multi-site-multi-strategy-betting-bot-for-dice-with-charts-307425

But I don't think these bots are helpful for these games because these most of games depend on luck also

seuntjie

legendary

Activity: 1717

Merit: 1125

Quote from: iWin on June 06, 2014, 08:09:32 PM

Not sure if it's been asked before but will there ever be an autobet on this site?

Dooglus will probably never implement his own, but there are a few 3rd party bots you can use. Here is one:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/seuntjies-dicebot-multi-site-multi-strategy-betting-bot-for-dice-with-charts-307425

hodlmybtc

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Hey dooglus,

Just wanted to compliment you on the site, awesome concept, I just invested nearly all my BTC.

According to http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27hk9o/someone_calling_themselves_theymos_is_gambling/ I should have done it earlier haha.

Keep up the good work!

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: iWin on June 06, 2014, 08:09:32 PM

Not sure if it's been asked before but will there ever be an autobet on this site?

I don't think it's a good idea.

Why would you want a program to bet for you on a site where there's no winning strategy?

If you dislike playing enough that you do want to actually do it, perhaps you should stop playing.

You can just send your coins directly to my donation address in the FAQ if you want to get rid of them quickly.

vinboy

member

Activity: 77

Merit: 10

ok.. tried to connect thru a VPS and it worked..

TwinWinNerD

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1001

CEO Bitpanda.com

Quote from: BayAreaCoins on June 06, 2014, 08:55:03 PM

Quote from: vinboy on June 06, 2014, 08:49:34 PM

hi
https://just-dice.com/ seems to be down at the moment? or is it just me?

just you

yeah its up for me too.

BayAreaCoins

legendary

Activity: 4004

Merit: 1250

Owner at AltQuick.com

Quote from: vinboy on June 06, 2014, 08:49:34 PM

hi
https://just-dice.com/ seems to be down at the moment? or is it just me?

just you

vinboy

member

Activity: 77

Merit: 10

hi
https://just-dice.com/ seems to be down at the moment? or is it just me?

iWin

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Not sure if it's been asked before but will there ever be an autobet on this site?

Azlan

newbie

Activity: 16

Merit: 0

Quote from: dooglus on June 06, 2014, 05:26:26 PM

The whole point I am making is that there is a difference between "the expected number of rolls to see a 6" and "the number of rolls you need to have a 50% chance of seeing a 6".

Agreed, and its a point worth making.

Quote from: dooglus on June 06, 2014, 05:26:26 PM

Read about what "expected value" means.

Just looked it up. Seems to mean the average. But expected value misses VERY important stuff. For example, the expected value of playing 6 rounds of russian roulette (1 bullet in 6 chambers and spinning the barrel EACH time...so its like the die) ...
... is that you are 1/6 dead. Not very useful info.

Im saying something similar to you - that its more interesting that with 6 plays (1 bullet) you will live 33% of the time.

You are asking about 50%.

with 5 plays, you live 5/6 ^ 5 = 40% of the time
and, as you pointed out, with 4 plays 5/6 ^ 4 = 48% of the time.

Quote from: dooglus on June 06, 2014, 05:26:26 PM

But that's not what expected value means. Your expected value for each roll is +$999.001:
(1 * 1e6 - 999 * 1) / 1000 = 999.001

yes, but thats the average and assumes infinite rolls.
given finite rolls (like 1000 for example), the more interesting fact pertains to your question about 50% ..... and the answer is greater then 500 rolls (for 1/1000 event).

...its 692 rolls (.999 ^ 692)= 50% : the chance of seeing it one or more times

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Azlan on June 06, 2014, 05:00:33 PM

Quote from: dooglus on June 05, 2014, 03:38:41 AM

Consider rolling a 6 sided die until you roll a six. The expected number of rolls to get a six is 6.

True, but incomplete

Only because you deleted the next line that I wrote:

Quote from: dooglus on June 05, 2014, 03:38:41 AM

But if you only roll 4 times, you have about a 51% of seeing a six, even though you've rolled less than the expected number.

The whole point I am making is that there is a difference between "the expected number of rolls to see a 6" and "the number of rolls you need to have a 50% chance of seeing a 6".

Quote from: Azlan on June 06, 2014, 05:00:33 PM

Take your die: You want to roll a six. You roll 6 times. Whats the probability of not seeing the six?
5/6 ^ 6 = 33.48% So a third of the time (with six observations) you will not see the 6 at all.

Read about what "expected value" means.

It sounds like you think it means "most likely value", but it doesn't.

Take your 1000 sided die. Let's play a game. If you roll a 6, you win a million dollars, but if you roll anything else, you lose a dollar.

What's the expected value of rolling the die? Almost every time you roll (99.9% of the time), you lose a dollar. So you 'expect' to lose almost every time.

But that's not what expected value means. Your expected value for each roll is +$999.001:

(1 * 1e6 - 999 * 1) / 1000 = 999.001

Azlan

newbie

Activity: 16

Merit: 0

Quote from: dooglus on June 05, 2014, 03:38:41 AM

Consider rolling a 6 sided die until you roll a six. The expected number of rolls to get a six is 6.

True, but incomplete - according to the small sample bias - rare events (<0.5) go 'unseen' more often then expected when the number of observations is small. Im sure the links offered by others goes into this.

Take your die: You want to roll a six. You roll 6 times. Whats the probability of not seeing the six?
5/6 ^ 6 = 33.48% So a third of the time (with six observations) you will not see the 6 at all.

It gets better. Imagine a 1000 sided die. You bet against the outcome "1000" and you roll exactly 1000 times.
The probability of getting away with it (not seeing the '1000' even once) is 0.999 ^ 999 = 36.8%

Many of your players are implementing this logic with bets with 98% chance of winning. The small sample bias predicts that, in 100 rolls, they will lose less then expected.

Since there is no free sandwich in life you can guess what happens the other 63.2% of the time you roll the 1000 sided die 1000 times..... You will see the rare outcome ('1000') one *or more* times.

Back to a streak of 28 reds (p=0.5). If you expect it to happen 1 in 236M rolls, the small sample bias (relative to the probability) predicts you will see such a steak once *or more* 63% of the time in 236M rolls but wont see it at all ~36% of the time.

M_acchi

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: tucenaber on June 06, 2014, 10:38:44 AM

The answer seems to be 284 million rolls.

The question isn't:

"how many rolls do we need so that I have a >50% chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer",

or

"how many rolls do we need so that the expected longest streak is of length L".

The question is:

"we have seen N rolls, what is my chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer?"

Which is kind of the same thing, but in the opposite direction, and apparently much harder to calculate.

Topic: Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest - page 105. (Read 454769 times)