What we have here is a situation where someone appears to be actually beating the house edge over many thousands of bets. And this is intriguing, because from a statistical point of view this should not be possible. You can't win a coin toss came if the coin is balanced towards the house, no matter what system you use.
-Michael
It's called variance.-Michael
Are you saying that if I toss a coin 1000 times, I won't - on average, hit 500 heads and 500 tails?
If you are saying that, then there can't be a 50/50 chance of heads and tails. Both statements can't be true at the same time.
And no I'm not saying that if you play 3 times you couldn't win 3 times, that will surely happen. But at JD we are not talking about 3 bets, we are talking about thousands of plays where the house edge seeming doesn't provide the house with any edge at all.
This "whale" seems to be playing martingale with 100 btc bets. Martingale is *not* a winning strategy long term, otherwise anyone could walk into a casino, sit down by the roulette and gain financial freedom. Eventually red will come up 12 times in a row, and you will lose your bankroll.
So how is this whale winning long term by using a martingale strategy? It's certainly not because of "variance", the number of bets and the casino bankroll drawdown is just too consistent and too deep. This looks more and more like someone found some statistical exploit in the way lucky numbers are generated based on nonces, hash values and transaction id's. It looks deliberate, not just like a guy with a really big wallet or a lot of luck.
-Michael
