Sigh - ok, out with the simple facts - that most pools seems to hide, so some people don't even understand it:
Any pool will have an expected reward ... after fees.
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For PPLNS: from 100% you must adjust down for: 'luck' (orphans and lost blocks) down for 'fees' (pool fees) and up for 'txn rewards' (txn rewards
IF they are paid to miners)
PPLNS here is: 100% * 99.1% (pool fee) * 100.8% (avg txn fees for last 11 weeks) * 99.49% (orphans - it's probably better than this)
Orphans is 2 of 392 blocks i.e. 99.49%
So that comes out as: 99.38% - our
expected average reward.
That's what you can expect to average here long term.
We've done better - wow ain't that good - will we always do better for every single block? No of course not.
Hey look at the last 25.8 days ... 25 blocks .... and that includes the last 5 days of lousy luck ... 107.48% luck
Nice. But no guarantees about where luck will go tomorrow or the day after.
Hey look at the last 11 weeks ... 50 blocks ... 89.82% ... ouch yep that includes Red October where we had a run of (only) 12 blocks of about 50% Luck
Hey look at the last 19.8 weeks ... 100 blocks ... 101.63% nice.
I see a pattern here ......... there is no pattern.
It's random. This is called variance. This is expected with PPLNS.
If you can't handle the higher long term expected payout, you want your payout today to always be the same but lower, then mine somewhere with PPS
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For PPS: 100% - fee. That's it, no more calculations.
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Now for the "I lost out, when will I get it back?" question.
There is no expectation for luck to correct itself. Ever.
Pool luck is always expected to head towards the expected value ... 100% - orphans
It may balance out and fix a bad period, it may balance out and reduce a good period.
But there is actually no statistical expectation for luck to do that.
Expecting that is called Gambler's Fallacy - google it
If you mine here long term, you can 'expect' to get close to the expected value, since long term variance is expected to be low.
If you mine here short term, then luck/variance will be the major factor in how much you are rewarded.
