Topic: KanoPool kano.is lowest 0.9% fee 🐈 since 2014 - Worldwide - 2432 blocks - page 2131. (Read 5352067 times)

People call it luck because when you boil it all down a miner is using brute force to attempt to provide a hash that meets the network's target requirements to add the block to the chain.  Depending on how much gear you own, that could be thousands to quadrillions of times a second.  You can take your gear and estimate how long it would be expected to find a block, and via the same formula figure out how much coin you would expect to earn on a daily basis under ideal circumstances.

The point is, though, that it really is luck because there is no guarantee your miner will ever actually produce a hash that satisfies the network's requirements to add the block to the chain.  No matter what the expectations are.  Conversely, you might find that hash in the next second, minute, hour.

People don't solo mine because of the simple fact that the majority do not have enough hardware to give them any reasonable expectation of finding a block on their own.  That's why pools were invented in the first place: to allow the miners a chance to work together to find a block and split the rewards of doing so between them.

When you hear the phrase, "it will average out over time" there really is no defined unit of time.  It isn't a week, a month, or a year.  It is an indication that all things being equal, you will in fact make the expected amount of coin for your hashing power.  The problem with the statement is that there are unpredictable variables: difficulty changes, orphaned blocks, lost hashes, network connectivity problems, etc.  All things aren't equal, and they never will be.  So, we simplify it to make it easier to swallow.

The entire network is subject to this.  Take a look at the recorded swings in network hash rate.  View it over time, a week, 2 months, 9 months, 3 years.  Heck, just take a look at blockchain.info and see the variability in block times and you'll see blocks solved in seconds and blocks that took hours to crack.  It's hard to quantify this, so we simplify it and call it luck, either good or bad.

Here on kano's pool you can witness the same thing.  Take a look at the block stats.  Some blocks are found well before the expected time, some well after.  Will things average out over time?  They may.  Then again, they may not.  We don't know - and we won't know until the time has passed and we can quantify it with the data of what happened in the past.

I hope my questions have been specific, and sorry in advance for the wall of text. If you are going to respond negatively please do so via PM so we may have a mature discussion.

We go through good days and bad days, but not "luck" to me anymore.
I have never been concerned over Friday the 13th, black cats, or other such things, but there was always something about winning a game of chance enough then expecting a loss, or losing enough and expecting a win.
Through many posts on this forum, and specifically reading this entire thread when I first joined I throw it all out the window.
As I was taught here, luck can be something in the past, but I never expect luck to have any impact on anything. It simply is not real, it is more akin to Santa Claus or the monsters in your closet.
Math is real, calculated probability, but not a dependence of blind luck.

I suppose there is not a better term to describe a 40 hour block or a 4.5 minute one though is there? To keep things simple we call it lucky or unlucky, but isn't it truly random?

What can a new miner do to increase the odds they are successful?
Successful at what? We must be specific. If we ask to be successful at solo mining and winning the block reward we get few answers.
Successful at completing the assigned work from the pool and running an efficient piece of mining hardware is probably a better question, but still general. There are hardware and software points to address.

Someone bringing enough hash to the pool to put it at 4PH but not over 8PH has been said to raise the probability of more immediate rewards, but the way it has been explained to me countless times is it averages out regardless. Lower hashrate = less people to share the rewards with, right?

Is that right? I am getting to my question.
I understand there are probabilities involved but I never claim to be a great mathematician. I think there must be a high and low end of the rewards being "averaged" if a set amount of time is included, otherwise everyone would solo mine? Not everyone, there are people who must have the large pool for the lowest variance to pay there bills, but otherwise if it all averaged out why wouldn't more people solo mine with all of their gear? So maybe it averages out over 60 years, but drop that to 6 years, or 12 months. If no one can predict what will happen in those 12 months, yet we all say "it all averages out", what time variable is that based on?

I am confident there are people here who have not only been mining longer, but that have a much better understanding of the entire process and their length of mining time or writing code has shown them these things do average over time.

I am looking for something to help me understand these things and correct any misconceptions I may have. If there is a resource somewhere else, or a thread here on this forum I have been unable to find it. The best I have found have been discussions on one pool versus another, but there are too many variables outside pure probability and time, EG the pool operator being transparent, types of payment methods (some impossible to maintain), the things most of us have no control over. I'm not saying we control probability or time, but I hope to understand those things more without the noise of the other.

There are very few answers for me outside of the standard "set it and forget it!" which may be the best thing for any miner, but I do not want to forget it, I want to understand each piece of the puzzle. Not in attempts to mine more coin, but to understand how it works and have dialog which could help more new miners understand luck has nothing and everything to do with rewards and here is why. Rewards average out over X amount of time and here is why, and maybe even further to "people with 1PH or more may switch pools to chase a contest for 1 or 2 BTC at another pool for what reasons? Is that truly worth it? Many of the 1 PH miners I see switching are renting their hash out. Depending on the amounts they rent for, they may be making it very much worth it, but, It would seem from everything I have learned so far switching back and forth could cause them much lower rewards from this or any other pool, but does it really? Renting rates are another variable I understand, so throw it out the window as well for what I am after.

Is there an amount of mining power / hashrate where the variance is minimized over X amount of time? And further is there an amount if hashrate you may own where adding 1TH to that amount is likely to garner more reward than 1 person connecting 1 TH, say miner A has 1PH, adds 1 TH and we only count the reward for that single TH they added, versus Miner B simply connecting with 1 TH. If only counting the 1 TH over the 1 PH from miner A against the 1 TH from miner B they should receive equal rewards.
In this scenario I am not including the fact that both A and B are paying for some of the same infrastructure or other variables such as that, but strictly about probability, and where applicable time.

When I am told "it all averages out", what time variable is used in that statement, or what are all of the variables used to form that conclusion? I am mainly focused on time, but anyone feel free to carry it as far and include whatever you wish. I hope to keep it more simply because I have learned about most? variables, I think I have anyway. Time is the one I am trying to understand now.

I hope this post shows only my wish to learn more, and help teach others. I want to help eradicate common misconceptions in my own train of thought, and many of which are human nature. By doing so hope to help others joining our community. I want people to buy Bitcoin, I do not recommend new people to jump at mining, but if someone asks me about luck and probability I want to be able to provide better explanations than I do at the moment, along with "it averages out", and "set it and forget it". While both true there are many people turned off by such short responses, and people like me who generally wish to understand "how it works".

Interesting.  I see what you are saying regarding the expected payout.    His ramp up time will still be closer to a week though since the shares while canaan was here will drop off before he reaches full reward (our N range will continue to drift toward a week as well until/unless canaan returns).

That will be the pool's N Range you are refering to. Look at the Account -> Rewards tab and you'll see it has gone up to 100 hours + which is just over 4 days. The block we just earned took just under 2 days, so if you started at the begining of that block, then your reward will be approximately half what you will earn (proportionately and dependent on pool hashing rate) in blocks earned in 2 days' time if you continue mining with the pool at a steady hashrate throughout that time.

Yes.  If you started right at the beginning of that long block then your payout will be about 3/8 of what you can expect once you've fully ramped up.  That used to take about 3 days, but with the drop in hash rate it is more like a week now.

Yes and don't be alarmed at the amount of your payment as your still ramping up. 

It looks like the pool just found a block, so your first payout will be after about 17 hours. 

The pool loss about half of the hash it had prior to finding the last block, due to a large miner leaving, so the blocks are coming slower but the payouts will be bigger. Just don't get discouraged with your first payouts until you get past the 500% mark which this block is at 167%. Kano has explained how the payout systems works many times here. Bottom line is this pool is honest with no worries.

Maybe joining the pool on Friday the 13th was a bad idea?  I hope I'm not bad luck   Been mining here since Friday at 1pm EST and no payout 

Yep, can't send anyone BTC the pool doesn't have yet
+101 is the limit bitcoin-qt puts on sending mined BTC.

I guess our definitions of instant and almost instant are different .  On average you're waiting over 16 hours from the time the block is found until the payment can be sent.

Note, "almost instant", i.e. they were paid to me very quickly.

You won't receive instant payments - the blocks must mature to 100 confirmations before kano sends payments for them.

I pointed very little hash here for a couple days when the pool found like 3 blocks, I received almost instant payments.  Luck and patience, my friend.

Here's an easy breakdown for you...

1) point your miners here
2) pool finds block
3) block gets 100 confirms
4) kano sends you coins

Because it's PPLNS, you have to "ramp up"... which means you're not going to get your full potential until N time has passed, so don't be surprised if on your first payment it's lower than you think it should be.

No need for the eyeroll, just want to make sure I'm not wasting my hash power for another day.  The pay structure is quite complicated.

I really like the new stats that have been added. The Block Statistics addition is really nice!

All - Last 185 Blocks   95.62%   95.05%   0.2545   105.21% - Makes me very happy I mine here.

   Welcome aboard... not sure if your doing anything wrong but the pool has not found a block in the last 25 hours and even then the payout will not come until the blocks has 100+  confirms.

I've been mining with Kano for over 24 hours and have not yet received a payout.  And my doing something wrong?

Setting diff has zero effect on performance except for completely broken hardware designs. That said, the first S4 firmwares were that sort of broken (long since fixed now), and just about every dragon miner was too, but everything else was NOT, and setting diff there has no effect on anything at all so there is no squeezing anything out of anything for the vast majority of hardware.