183% let's hope it's not a 600% buster!
Where can you check this?
Also what does it mean
Top left of every web page - "Shares:"
Though most people don't understand what the % means and what to expect.
So every so often I post this:
Here's the CDF table showing the expected probabilities of finding blocks for each % or longer:
0.39346934028737 50.000% 1 in 1.6
0.63212055882856 100.000% 1 in 2.7
0.77686983985157 150.000% 1 in 4.5
0.86466471676339 200.000% 1 in 7.4
0.95021293163214 300.000% 1 in 20.1
0.98168436111127 400.000% 1 in 54.6
0.99326205300091 500.000% 1 in 148.4
0.99752124782333 600.000% 1 in 403.4
0.99872735771441 666.666% 1 in 785.8
0.99908811803445 700.000% 1 in 1096.6
0.99966453737210 800.000% 1 in 2981.0
0.99987659019591 900.000% 1 in 8103.1
The point of these numbers is to show how often, on average, ALL pools expect a block.
So for example above, 1 in 7.4 blocks is expected, on average, over a large sample, to be over 200%
and 1 in 20.1 blocks is expected, on average, over a large sample, to be over 300% ... etc.
This CDF table also applies, of course, to the Bitcoin network itself.
e.g. a 600% network block is a 1 hour network block.
So on average, over a large sample, we expect 1 in 403.4 network blocks to be 1 hour or more.
i.e. so if blocks average 10 minutes, then if you check the history of blocks, you should find, on average, about 1 every 403.4/144 days or about one every 2.8 days, a network block over an hour.
This also shows another interesting thing about mining
If you solo mine, you have a 1 in 2.7 chance of losing money on the first block you find.
If you mine on a medium or large pool, then you'd expect to get around 100% PPS or more.
If you mine solo, then you expect, 1 in 2.7 blocks you find to be over 100%, so you'd get less reward, though solo pools seem to expect fees and tips to make the expected loss higher.
... and of course all positive diff changes between now and when you find that first block will make that worse again.
