Topic: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement - page 251. (Read 452224 times)

Nope sir 

Dividends will be posted soon...  @Lab_Rat is installing new hardware first.  Any objections?  


grnbrg.

You, sir, are a gentleman, many thanks!

Should be a standard 'widget' thing on bitcointalk.org. Pretty essential thing for these mining 'bonds'.

FYI, the hashrate shown at the private pool for LabRat is now 1.83 TH/s.

There is an API now for the pool that could be used to dynamically read the current hashrate.  If LabRat doesn't update his website in the next few days to start using the API (instead of requiring manual updates), then I'll put something together.

I think with the dividends that should come out today, they will speak for themselves.

I'm so excited!

But we really do need to get that "Current Hashrate" updated or linked to the actual hashrate somehow. It would be rather annoying to have to keep updating this manually, hopefully this is done soon.
Then all we need to know is that "More hardware came in" and we could just check the Current Hashrate to see what we're blazing at!

I feel like we've had a lack of communication this week.  Especially seeing as how if Bit Fury is shipping, we should be seeing some decent increases in hashrate, between hardware purchases and contracted hardware.  While it's nice to see pictures and all, it would be nicer if the level of communication increased, if only on the "Such and such added to the hashrate today."  If you want to keep selling shares, Lab Rat, you need to keep up the communication of hashrate increses.  Hell, just updating your site with the latest numbers would do it.  I think the rest of LRM shareholders would disseminate information pretty quickly from there.  Maybe let grnbrg handle to communication end since he seems to be "in the know"?

Updated speculation: "Bond" price ~December 1, 2013: Low ~0.604BTC, High ~0.956BTC

Method (open for constructive critical evaluation):
.....................
Assumptions:
Price per "bond" will depend on dividends paid out weekly. (safe assumption)
Price per "bond" varies in a range of ~120x to ~190x weekly dividend per bond. (fair assumption based on observation)
Difficulty increases 30% every two weeks. (fair assumption)
Hash rate per "bond" should be roughly 600MH. (practical assumption: http://www.labratmining.com/currentHashrate.html)
--The hash rate may change quickly depending on new bonds sales and BTC value at time of hardware purchase.
All funded hashing power will be online before December. (hopeful assumption)

December 1st is the date in question. That is 6 increases in difficulty from the beginning of September). 1.3^6 = 4.82 times current difficulty. (Future difficulty: 419,609,073).

600MH (0.6GH) at that difficulty will yield daily: 0.0007191BTC/"bond"; weekly: 0.0050337BTC/"bond"
Source: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Therefore, the speculative bond price range:
Lo: 120 x 0.0050337 = 0.604044BTC/bond
Hi: 190 x 0.0050337 = 0.956403BTC/bond

Just by BTC value, these number can vary easily by +/-15%.
.....................

I hope making the method clear defuses any fears that this speculation is mere hype.

This is good news for Labratmining.

I hope he has more coming soon

How does that work? They don't even have heatsinks (suck on that BFL!), how can they not like a little bit of ambient air movement?

apparently they do not like much airflow so Zach might want to try them without the fans first

16 H cards is 400 GH/s, as I recall, so 18 will probably end up at around 450 GH/s.  The M boards are just what the H boards plug into.  Each can hold up to 16, I believe.

18 H boards and 2 M boards.  Anyone speak BitFury want to translate?



grnbrg.

I just got a tidbit from @Lab_Rat....    Presenting what may well be the first BitFury gear hashing in North America....



Arrived this morning, and was purchased second hand from someone who ordered it within 15 minutes of them being available.

More (hopefully more pictures as well as details) to follow shortly.  



grnbrg.

Certainly risk is one component - the other is the factor of returns that miners are realizing now and that these cashflows are diminishing without capex. A further issue is that the capex requirement to maintain the effective rate of hashing in the network going forward is not well established. It will not be until we reach the end state of 14nm. Any miner that is presently in a high cost environment will need to be looking at moving to a low cost jurisdiction likely within the next 12 - 18 months. Lean corporate structures in low tax  AND power cost environments will be have the competitive advantage. While the first movers may have some advantage in regard to upfront cashflow and perhaps earnings, is remains to be seen if this will provide a sustainable advantage given their cost base and the need for gen 5 or 6 reinvestment.

Its a hockey stick model right now and it will be very interesting to see what the plateau will be - it may be sooner than we expect

Sure, it does make sense, and it is indeed the (huge) increase in the risk that necessitates the increase in dividend ratio.

In some sense, it isn't actually crazy. You have to consider the dividend periods closely. First, consider any stock that isn't a growth stock, but pays dividends. For example, this company....

NYSE Ticker:
NAT (Nordic American Tankers Limited )

It pays an annualized dividend close to about 10%. And it's not really a growth stock. Just higher than average dividends than many stocks. So, people buying into NAT may not be after share price gains...but moreso a consistent and somewhat modest return. Better than letting money sit and allow inflation make it worth less.

Now, consider these cloud miners (or other entities paying dividends) where you can buy bonds or shares or whatever you call them...  And take a "worse case" and assume the 190 price:dividend ratio. The dividends factored here are weekly! So, 1/190 * 52 weeks = 52/190th's return on share price per year... or roughly 27% annualized. Sure, a pure miner could see a lot greater gains. But 27% isn't bad in the grand scheme of things, and not having to worry about monitoring hardware 24/7... Granted, there's also more risk than mining and the lasting power of any one of these operations is questionable, but this kind of return & effort profile might be what people with this kind of investing interest might be seeing and quite comfortable with.

News flash? I realize owning hardware has more economical leverage. But unlike you, I'm accounting for the fact that people interested in investing in these mining operations are not seeing it with your rationale, and they have different interests than running hardware. They also know they can sell their bonds or shares and recoup some or more of their principal depending on performance of the company. Perhaps, for some it's just a place to "store" their otherwise static bitcoins for a year. So, my speculation isn't based on what you would do, or optimal investment values. Regardless, let's look quickly at actual relevant numbers.

Someone pointed out an interesting observation in another forum that might be helpful for you. Simply the commenter noted that he/she saw that people were buying shares in other mining operations for roughly 190 times the [weekly] dividend. I didn't do a wide survey and find that as a rough value, but I did find high numbers.
Some fairly random examples:

TAT.ASICMINE (see on bitfunder.com)
Share price: ~.0225
Dividends: ~.0002
Price:Dividend ratio = ~112

G.ASICMINER-P
Share price: ~ 2.3
Dividends: ~ .02
Price:Dividend ratio:  ~115

BTCINVEST
Share price: ~.22
Dividends: ~.003
Price:Dividend ratio:  ~73

You can go through the list of them if you like: https://bitfunder.com/market

Argue till your red in the face all you care to, but the numbers don't lie. And knowing or observing that these ratio's are [or appear] common or "normal", how could someone intending to speculate not account for that? .... Why would Lab Rat Mining be any different? Afterall, it's paying dividends... Well actually, it isn't that different, the price is already 250 times weekly dividends. Granted, it's new and anticipation is higher as it grows into it's pants, but the others aren't. I'd expect LRM to drop to a ratio closer to the others over time as dividend size increases.

This is quite a fair analysis of a wildly over-optimistic post by ||bit in my opinion, though it probably (for good reason) errs on the negative side (as it's trying to contrast with a very over-optimistic post).

There are good reasons why the bonds would be a bit more expensive to buy than the BitFury hardware, like having no ongoing power/HVAC costs, and no need for large quanitities of hot & noisy hardware in your house to name a few, which add a lot of value, but I agree obviously don't account for the crazy valuation that ||bit is putting on it.

I agree that his valuation is pretty silly, but I don't think that shares are overvalued at the moment, and the price means that the market agrees with this by definition (though this doesn't make it correct (c.f. ASICMiner shares recently) it does mean that there is at least consensus).

But yes, if people are buying now expecting to see x5 capital growth in a few months on top of decent dividend payments then they might be disappointed. But don't let me stop them, I'm a bond holder after all!