I tried estimating % rate of network for ASICMINER one day by adding up all blocks with less than 100 confirmations and multiplying by 10.
It was something like 25%, extremely high.. but then the next day I looked it was like 5%... finding blocks varies so much that its impossible
to calculate it with only a day of information. I don't see how some of you could possibly be calculating hash rate accurately based on payments over a few hours, is there something I'm missing? If the pool is lucky, then the payments will come faster, right?
The most accurate way right now is this:
ASICMiner found 8 blocks in the past 24 hours.
BTCGuild found
68.
The variance is far lower, and you get paid over a
sliding window of the last 10 'shifts', which reduces the variance even more. They don't get paid based on how many blocks BTCGuild found in the past hour.
Except for the very first set of shifts this difficulty period (Where they had 188% luck), all of their 10-shift periods have had luck of about +/- 20%. The variance on BTCGuild is not very high at all. It's not like ASICMiner or slush, that's
why people use it. and why it's always close to 51%.
I made it clear the payments could have come from someone other then labcoin pointing to their payout address. That just seems unlikely to me. We haven't seen any more inexplicable payments since 16:17 UTC, though.
But they did say they would "merge" the other hashers when they were "stable", whatever that means.
