anyone interested in purchasing my 64 Batch 5 chips? I have decided that I am not going to wait.
I did my GPU mining for a while. I have a BFL Jally on the way, sometime in the next century, Maybe.....
either way that will be enough for me.
Topic: Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware - page 139. (Read 423279 times)
So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?
Yes.
So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?
449 * 3,249,550 = 1,459,047,950 Projected difficulty on Jan 8, 2014 if current growth had been sustained from the beginning to the end of the year.
Here are some ROI calculations:
assume your electricity costs $0.15 per kWh and assuming a single miner uses 50 watts per hour to run.
assume a very steep .1 profitability decline per year e.g. difficulty increased to 10x the original difficulty after 1 year.
At difficulty 37.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 692.67$. It will take about 1.64 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
At difficulty 100.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 18.91$. It will take about 7.5 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
My data looks much different than yours. I also prefer to express return in BTC rather than $. Data assumes 20% increase in difficulty. Gain is calculated for each window of difficulty then added to the next window until difficulty reaches a point of BTC and electricity canceling each other out per period (Around 2,000,000,000 Difficulty). This is for one K16 miner (elec included). I'm already past ROI.
Yea, I have similar calcs. Breakeven date seems to be around 9/1/13...
Oh Man, this bitcoin is killing me, killing me.. I often wish I had never heard of it..Wanting quick buck is the dark hole where we all dive... Now fighting against each other in that very darkness..lol.. Hope Yifu and steamboat bring the burning sun inside that damn hole to make us burst into tears out of joy !!! 
Yifu (BitSyncom) has responded.
We should soon know what's happening with the chips.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/incoming-avalon-news-892013-269950
the "i'm not dead thread."
Just got off the plane, expect lots of news tomorrow.
Just got off the plane, expect lots of news tomorrow.
We should soon know what's happening with the chips.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/incoming-avalon-news-892013-269950
the "i'm not dead thread."
Just got off the plane, expect lots of news tomorrow.
Just got off the plane, expect lots of news tomorrow.
Hope this is good news for us, steamboat, get ready for (hopefully) an incoming shipment.
Knowing about Bitcoin when it was at $1, and truly knowing Bitcoin, are two different things.
I know about cars and how they run, but I can not rebuild an engine.
Kosta
I know about cars and how they run, but I can not rebuild an engine.
Kosta
I almost bought $1000 of Bitcoin at $1, if not lower. I just say $1 because Id rather lose out on $100,000 in 2 years, instead of More if I had that great idea when it was Less then $1.
We all should know when products need "8-10" weeks to be delivered, that we are at risk for these problems. I just hope Avalon ships the chips ASAP and we can get these boards hashing as soon as possible.
Also don't forget soon there will be several Players in the ASIC market. Hopefully the next Player will say, Hey guys we have 10gh/s boards, in our warehouse ready to ship. If that *WAS* the case at that point , I have no doubt you would spend another $5,000 if you knew your definitive ROI (i.e. they release how many boards/week etc).
BTC is still fairly new to me, and its been a roller coaster. Thats half the fun in my eyes. Other Half will be when my K16s are online!!
Kosta
We all should know when products need "8-10" weeks to be delivered, that we are at risk for these problems. I just hope Avalon ships the chips ASAP and we can get these boards hashing as soon as possible.
Also don't forget soon there will be several Players in the ASIC market. Hopefully the next Player will say, Hey guys we have 10gh/s boards, in our warehouse ready to ship. If that *WAS* the case at that point , I have no doubt you would spend another $5,000 if you knew your definitive ROI (i.e. they release how many boards/week etc).
BTC is still fairly new to me, and its been a roller coaster. Thats half the fun in my eyes. Other Half will be when my K16s are online!!
Kosta
You almost bought $1000 of Bitcoin at $1, yet BTC is fairly new to you...
We all should have known about the degree of risk...
Incoherent dude. Go back to sleep.
How about we all learn our lesson and let investors invest in companies that develop products and let buyers of gear find gear to buy when it ships next few days not next few months.
I almost bought $1000 of Bitcoin at $1, if not lower. I just say $1 because Id rather lose out on $100,000 in 2 years, instead of More if I had that great idea when it was Less then $1.
We all should know when products need "8-10" weeks to be delivered, that we are at risk for these problems. I just hope Avalon ships the chips ASAP and we can get these boards hashing as soon as possible.
Also don't forget soon there will be several Players in the ASIC market. Hopefully the next Player will say, Hey guys we have 10gh/s boards, in our warehouse ready to ship. If that *WAS* the case at that point , I have no doubt you would spend another $5,000 if you knew your definitive ROI (i.e. they release how many boards/week etc).
BTC is still fairly new to me, and its been a roller coaster. Thats half the fun in my eyes. Other Half will be when my K16s are online!!
Kosta
We all should know when products need "8-10" weeks to be delivered, that we are at risk for these problems. I just hope Avalon ships the chips ASAP and we can get these boards hashing as soon as possible.
Also don't forget soon there will be several Players in the ASIC market. Hopefully the next Player will say, Hey guys we have 10gh/s boards, in our warehouse ready to ship. If that *WAS* the case at that point , I have no doubt you would spend another $5,000 if you knew your definitive ROI (i.e. they release how many boards/week etc).
BTC is still fairly new to me, and its been a roller coaster. Thats half the fun in my eyes. Other Half will be when my K16s are online!!
Kosta
Well if you invest long term, and expect BTC to gain value, you have not lost money. Sure you could have just bought 50 BTC with $5000, but thats to easy and no fun in it!
Kosta
Kosta
I interpreted that as "Well if you invest long term, and expect BTC to gain value, you have not lost money. you could have just bought 50 BTC with $5000"
I sure could have done a lot of things with that $5000.... Awww
FUD YOU AVALON!!! FUD YOOUUUUUU!!!!
Well if you invest long term, and expect BTC to gain value, you have not lost money. Sure you could have just bought 50 BTC with $5000, but thats to easy and no fun in it!
Kosta
Kosta
WE BETTER GET THESE DAMN THINGS BY SEPTEMBER!!
I wanna at least get half my money back .. or maybe a quarter? .... I wanna get something back...
if I could get $1000 back from the $5000 I invested that would make me feel a little better seeing a 'grand' number than a hundred's number ... All in all worst case scenario it would suck most knowing ALL my money I spent months saving got thrown out the window, in which case I may as well accept that fact and take it as a lesson learned-- dangers of gambling...
Dang, that makes this look bleak. Sure am glad that I get to host these at work for free. 
449 * 3,249,550 = 1,459,047,950 Projected difficulty on Jan 8, 2014 if current growth had been sustained from the beginning to the end of the year.
Here are some ROI calculations:
assume your electricity costs $0.15 per kWh and assuming a single miner uses 50 watts per hour to run.
assume a very steep .1 profitability decline per year e.g. difficulty increased to 10x the original difficulty after 1 year.
At difficulty 37.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 692.67$. It will take about 1.64 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
At difficulty 100.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 18.91$. It will take about 7.5 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
My data looks much different than yours. I also prefer to express return in BTC rather than $. Data assumes 20% increase in difficulty. Gain is calculated for each window of difficulty then added to the next window until difficulty reaches a point of BTC and electricity canceling each other out per period (Around 2,000,000,000 Difficulty). This is for one K16 miner (elec included). I'm already past ROI.
This post is incredibly long, the end goal is to say "Yes, there is hope that bitcoin mining profitability is not dead yet." Bear with me here.
To all of our friends who are saying profitability is dead....
Not yet. Maybe "insanely quick profitability" is dead, but not profitability. some quick figures:
it costs about $300.00 to purchase a fully functional K16. Steamboat has said that the chips should be able to punch out 325 MH/s each.... a single miner then comes out to 5200 MH/s.
Now for some conjecture:
Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks.
as of lately, blocks have been about 8 minutes long. (a result of a 20% increase in hashing power each set of 2016 blocks; the last 6 difficulty changes have averaged out to about 20.79%; the last 17 have been 15.89%)
It takes then, about 10.9 days for 1 difficulty adjustment to go through.
if the % increase remains constant at 20%, there will be 33.5 difficulty adjustments in a year
that means that a machine which could get 1 bitcoin in the first difficulty set would be able to get only 1/(1.2^33.5) bitcoins at the end of the year, or about 0.00223 bitcoins. In other words, difficulty increases to 449x what it was at the beginning of the year.
our January 8, 2013 difficulty was 3,249,550.
449 * 3,249,550 = 1,459,047,950 Projected difficulty on Jan 8, 2014 if current growth had been sustained from the beginning to the end of the year.
Ok, we are off-target for hitting 1.46 billion this year. if growth increases at 20% per difficulty adjustment for the rest of the year, we would hit about 500,000,000 difficulty. (This would require $99,149,202 worth of network chip hashing power to be in-place and running by the end of the year. [more info on how I came up with that figure below])
all the calculations below are done with avalon chips and avalon chip equivalents. This is done because an assumption is made that chips by other companies will be approximately the same in a chip's Mh to cost ratio.
theoretically, if a 20% change had been sustained through this whole year (it has not been, see 3 paragraphs above), the below 1.46 billion difficulty would be hit. For this example, let's say it has been and will be sustained through the end of the year.
I would be very surprised if the difficulty continued to increase up to 1.46 billion by Jan 2014, this is why:
Based on historic data, 7.15 TH is enough to increase difficulty by 1 million... (equivalent avalon asic chip cost of $198,298 not including boards)
Thus far, Avalon has received about 331.9 TH worth of chip orders, worth $7,577,980. The current difficulty of 37,508,353 represents approximately that same amount of cost ($7,510,356).
so, a 1.46 billion difficulty would require 10,439 TH to be achieved... (equivalent avalon asic chip cost of $288,722,476 not including boards)
I doubt another $280,700,000 will be invested into buying chips by Jan 2014 to create the 1.46 billion difficulty that would result.
In short, this current rate of growth is not sustainable without either an increase in bitcoin's per unit worth, or an increase in MH/unit cost for chips. I think it is pretty likely that the current growth rate is not here to stay, look for it slowing down within the next 6 or 7 difficulty adjustments. (7 more adjustments at 20% would result in a difficulty of 134,399,210 for an approximate network cost of $19,000,000 in chips alone.) People already seem to be slowing down in how fast they are snatching up more available hashing power, and how fast they are snatching up hashing power that will be available in the future.
Here are some ROI calculations:
assume your electricity costs $0.15 per kWh and assuming a single miner uses 50 watts per hour to run.
assume a very steep .1 profitability decline per year e.g. difficulty increased to 10x the original difficulty after 1 year.
At difficulty 37.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 692.67$. It will take about 1.64 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
At difficulty 100.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 18.91$. It will take about 7.5 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
That may only be a 6% ROI, but it is still profitable.
Some figures for when to pull the plug and chuck for scrap. ROI calculations are much more difficult, and were covered above. Also note, this table below does not take into account the cost for cooling. This table compares electricity costs and difficulty.
The question: "Should I keep mining with my K16?"
To all of our friends who are saying profitability is dead....
Not yet. Maybe "insanely quick profitability" is dead, but not profitability. some quick figures:
it costs about $300.00 to purchase a fully functional K16. Steamboat has said that the chips should be able to punch out 325 MH/s each.... a single miner then comes out to 5200 MH/s.
Now for some conjecture:
Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks.
as of lately, blocks have been about 8 minutes long. (a result of a 20% increase in hashing power each set of 2016 blocks; the last 6 difficulty changes have averaged out to about 20.79%; the last 17 have been 15.89%)
It takes then, about 10.9 days for 1 difficulty adjustment to go through.
if the % increase remains constant at 20%, there will be 33.5 difficulty adjustments in a year
that means that a machine which could get 1 bitcoin in the first difficulty set would be able to get only 1/(1.2^33.5) bitcoins at the end of the year, or about 0.00223 bitcoins. In other words, difficulty increases to 449x what it was at the beginning of the year.
our January 8, 2013 difficulty was 3,249,550.
449 * 3,249,550 = 1,459,047,950 Projected difficulty on Jan 8, 2014 if current growth had been sustained from the beginning to the end of the year.
Ok, we are off-target for hitting 1.46 billion this year. if growth increases at 20% per difficulty adjustment for the rest of the year, we would hit about 500,000,000 difficulty. (This would require $99,149,202 worth of network chip hashing power to be in-place and running by the end of the year. [more info on how I came up with that figure below])
all the calculations below are done with avalon chips and avalon chip equivalents. This is done because an assumption is made that chips by other companies will be approximately the same in a chip's Mh to cost ratio.
theoretically, if a 20% change had been sustained through this whole year (it has not been, see 3 paragraphs above), the below 1.46 billion difficulty would be hit. For this example, let's say it has been and will be sustained through the end of the year.
I would be very surprised if the difficulty continued to increase up to 1.46 billion by Jan 2014, this is why:
Based on historic data, 7.15 TH is enough to increase difficulty by 1 million... (equivalent avalon asic chip cost of $198,298 not including boards)
Thus far, Avalon has received about 331.9 TH worth of chip orders, worth $7,577,980. The current difficulty of 37,508,353 represents approximately that same amount of cost ($7,510,356).
so, a 1.46 billion difficulty would require 10,439 TH to be achieved... (equivalent avalon asic chip cost of $288,722,476 not including boards)
I doubt another $280,700,000 will be invested into buying chips by Jan 2014 to create the 1.46 billion difficulty that would result.
In short, this current rate of growth is not sustainable without either an increase in bitcoin's per unit worth, or an increase in MH/unit cost for chips. I think it is pretty likely that the current growth rate is not here to stay, look for it slowing down within the next 6 or 7 difficulty adjustments. (7 more adjustments at 20% would result in a difficulty of 134,399,210 for an approximate network cost of $19,000,000 in chips alone.) People already seem to be slowing down in how fast they are snatching up more available hashing power, and how fast they are snatching up hashing power that will be available in the future.
Here are some ROI calculations:
assume your electricity costs $0.15 per kWh and assuming a single miner uses 50 watts per hour to run.
assume a very steep .1 profitability decline per year e.g. difficulty increased to 10x the original difficulty after 1 year.
At difficulty 37.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 692.67$. It will take about 1.64 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
At difficulty 100.4 million:
over 12 months of running you would earn 18.91$. It will take about 7.5 months to pay for your miner, the rest is income.
That may only be a 6% ROI, but it is still profitable.
Some figures for when to pull the plug and chuck for scrap. ROI calculations are much more difficult, and were covered above. Also note, this table below does not take into account the cost for cooling. This table compares electricity costs and difficulty.
The question: "Should I keep mining with my K16?"
| Difficulty | $.25 per kWh | $.20 per kWh | $.15 per kWh | $.10 per kWh |
| 2.25 Billion | no | no | no | no |
| 2.2 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 2.1 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 2.0 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 1.9 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 1.8 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 1.7 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 1.6 Billion | no | no | no | yes |
| 1.5 Billion | no | no | yes | yes |
| 1.4 Billion | no | no | yes | yes |
| 1.3 Billion | no | no | yes | yes |
| 1.2 Billion | no | no | yes | yes |
| 1.1 Billion | no | yes | yes | yes |
| 1.0 Billion | no | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.9 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.8 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.7 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.6 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.5 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.4 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.3 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.2 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| 0.1 Billion | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Apologize for duplicate post, but personal circumstances have made it necessary for me to sell my 2 Batch #3 miners and 1 Batch #4 miner if I can get a reasonable price for them. Would like to keep them all part of one transaction so I can transfer control of my Liquid Synergy account to a prospective seller. I can go as low as 8 BTC if you can cover the escrow. Additional details can be found here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2876547
If you have any faith in ol' Yifu, shoot me a PM.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2876547
If you have any faith in ol' Yifu, shoot me a PM.
I'm checking the forums daily in hope of good news, this chip business is really really upsetting. How long before we won't make roi? /sadface
Personally, I no longer expect to make roi. I hope I'm wrong, but at this rate...
This was a risky proposition from the start so hopefully nobody invested more than they can afford to lose.
Yeah, almost certainly the ROI is gone at this point. Especially for the later buys.
I believe future bitcoin profits from mining will only come to the big boys with deeps pockets. Clearly there isn't a spot for the little guy just wanting to buy a few miners. He will never get the latest hardware fast enough or cheap enough to make any money.
Future profits will come to the reputable manufacturers (yes, they will eventually move into this space), and those that invest the big dollars in them.
Thanks Steamboat for the update. It makes a huge difference. Maybe on page 1 would be best so some of us don't have to go searching everywhere for an update.
Personally I am too busy to see what is going on with Avalon chips shipping status, so I didn't even know you haven't received them yet.
Thanks again!
Personally I am too busy to see what is going on with Avalon chips shipping status, so I didn't even know you haven't received them yet.
Thanks again!
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