Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware - page 185.

Unacceptable

legendary

Activity: 2212

Merit: 1001

Quote from: lexis200 on June 11, 2013, 02:36:06 PM

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:28:23 PM

Then just use http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ w/ history of percentage difficulty increase and plug into calc.

That's what I already do, but who knows what the difficulty is really going to do once all these ASICs get on the network (plus all the backup hash that ASICminer et al. are keeping from us at the moment.

I also use https://bitclockers.com/calc which gives a better ROI estimate. Anyone got any other calcs they use?

I use this calc http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator & these "estimates" of difficulty @ corresponding network hashrates,have fun!!!

19707600=150TH

26276800=200TH

39415200=300TH

52553600=400TH

65692000=500TH

78830400=600TH

98538000=750TH

Just copy & paste into the diff box Wink

Kinetic915

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: cardcomm on June 11, 2013, 06:12:36 PM

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:28:23 PM

Quote from: lexis200 on June 11, 2013, 02:26:57 PM

Quote from: MZD on June 11, 2013, 02:22:21 PM

So worst case scenario is that every 12 months a ghz will earn you .05 BTC?

Is it unreasonable to think a ghz could mine 5 BTC in 12 months?

You could work it out yourself using this...

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

There's probably better calculators out there, but this is an easy one to use

Of course you still need a crystal ball to know what the difficulty is going to be!

Then just use http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ w/ history of percentage difficulty increase and plug into calc.

Very interesting links, thanks. Although I admit that I'm having trouble projecting difficulty increase by studying the chart on http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ :/

there are plenty of bitcoin resources, allchains.info, coinwarz.com etc etc google search for bitcoin difficulty history and you can get some numbers

eroxors

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

Think. Positive. Thoughts.

Quote from: Syke on June 11, 2013, 04:52:30 PM

Quote from: steamboat on June 10, 2013, 05:42:25 PM

As an aside: Each person should do their own research and calculations to decide if purchasing miners is right for them. That being said, the numbers I have run are based on a very aggressive difficulty ramp up, and show the units will be unprofitable after 9-10 months. That being said, in order to maintain the exponential increase in difficulty, $26 million dollars worth of hardware would need to be introduced in month 3, $54 million in month 5, $110 million in month 7, and so on. This assumes .5btc per gh/s, and there are companies slated to produce miners at a .2.

I think you may want to adjust that estimate. Recently announced projects are claiming way better than .5btc per gh/s.

Bitfury, 20btc for 120 gh/s = .167btc per gh/s
KNCMiner, 60btc for 350 gh/s = .17btc per gh/s

The likelihood that one or both miss targets, are delayed, or turn out to be a scam/failed business is pretty high.

Steamboat, could you speak to the logistics once chips arrive? I assume you separate the chips-only orders and ship them immediately, but what about when you receive the assembled boards? Do you then ship the board assembly-only orders? Then the kits? Then fully assembled? Or are you keeping with the FIFO queue between all boqrds that require assembly? Where do hosted units fit in?

cardcomm

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:28:23 PM

Quote from: lexis200 on June 11, 2013, 02:26:57 PM

Quote from: MZD on June 11, 2013, 02:22:21 PM

So worst case scenario is that every 12 months a ghz will earn you .05 BTC?

Is it unreasonable to think a ghz could mine 5 BTC in 12 months?

You could work it out yourself using this...

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

There's probably better calculators out there, but this is an easy one to use

Of course you still need a crystal ball to know what the difficulty is going to be!

Then just use http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ w/ history of percentage difficulty increase and plug into calc.

Very interesting links, thanks. Although I admit that I'm having trouble projecting difficulty increase by studying the chart on http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ :/

Syke

legendary

Activity: 3878

Merit: 1193

Quote from: steamboat on June 10, 2013, 05:42:25 PM

As an aside: Each person should do their own research and calculations to decide if purchasing miners is right for them. That being said, the numbers I have run are based on a very aggressive difficulty ramp up, and show the units will be unprofitable after 9-10 months. That being said, in order to maintain the exponential increase in difficulty, $26 million dollars worth of hardware would need to be introduced in month 3, $54 million in month 5, $110 million in month 7, and so on. This assumes .5btc per gh/s, and there are companies slated to produce miners at a .2.

I think you may want to adjust that estimate. Recently announced projects are claiming way better than .5btc per gh/s.

Bitfury, 20btc for 120 gh/s = .167btc per gh/s
KNCMiner, 60btc for 350 gh/s = .17btc per gh/s

dmcdad

sr. member

Activity: 302

Merit: 250

Quote from: bitcoiner49er on June 11, 2013, 04:11:09 PM

I've been assuming a 50% increase per month for up to one year. With beginning difficulty between 25 and 40mil.

50% increase continuing for a full year? That seems unrealistic. Assuming a starting point of around 500 Th/s, that would put total has of network at 50+ Ph/s 12 months later. Even at an ASIC generation 2 price of say 0.10 BTC per Gh/s that is $500 million cost just for the miners. The only way that could happen would be for the exchange rate to have some extraordinary growth. Could happen I guess, in which case I won't care that my mining hardware investment didn't get a ROI.

bitcoiner49er

sr. member

Activity: 457

Merit: 250

I've been assuming a 50% increase per month for up to one year. With beginning difficulty between 25 and 40mil.

Rakessh

full member

Activity: 205

Merit: 100

Thinking between 45m and 90m mid/late august and upto 200m by year end sound conservative enough? Or is it possible we will be seeing even 400-600m by year end?

Kinetic915

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: lexis200 on June 11, 2013, 02:36:06 PM

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:28:23 PM

Then just use http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ w/ history of percentage difficulty increase and plug into calc.

That's what I already do, but who knows what the difficulty is really going to do once all these ASICs get on the network (plus all the backup hash that ASICminer et al. are keeping from us at the moment.

I also use https://bitclockers.com/calc which gives a better ROI estimate. Anyone got any other calcs they use?

considering the difficulty is going up almost exponentially I think it may be best to expect the worst :/

bigbeninlondon

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: KS on June 11, 2013, 03:02:42 PM

Quote from: bigbeninlondon on June 11, 2013, 02:57:09 PM

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:27:36 PM

Well I really think its too late to participate in the "gold rush" once things level off and maybe next gen chips are introduced a good ROI can be calculated.

Also, I think as these come to market, many GPUs will be retired, removing some of the hashrate from the network. Kind of a trade up sort of thing. I know that once I get these ASICs, my GPU rig is being sold off in parts.

I don't think that will matter much. There is probably between 1000T and 1500T coming. Removing even the whole actual 100T won't make much of a difference. If the ASIC deployment is progressive, sure it will have a bigger impact, but it looks like it will come in waves.

Agreed.

KS

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: bigbeninlondon on June 11, 2013, 02:57:09 PM

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:27:36 PM

Well I really think its too late to participate in the "gold rush" once things level off and maybe next gen chips are introduced a good ROI can be calculated.

Also, I think as these come to market, many GPUs will be retired, removing some of the hashrate from the network. Kind of a trade up sort of thing. I know that once I get these ASICs, my GPU rig is being sold off in parts.

I don't think that will matter much. There is probably between 1000T and 1500T coming. Removing even the whole actual 100T won't make much of a difference. If the ASIC deployment is progressive, sure it will have a bigger impact, but it looks like it will come in waves.

bigbeninlondon

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:27:36 PM

Well I really think its too late to participate in the "gold rush" once things level off and maybe next gen chips are introduced a good ROI can be calculated.

Also, I think as these come to market, many GPUs will be retired, removing some of the hashrate from the network. Kind of a trade up sort of thing. I know that once I get these ASICs, my GPU rig is being sold off in parts.

lexis200

member

Activity: 61

Merit: 10

Quote from: Kinetic915 on June 11, 2013, 02:28:23 PM

Then just use http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ w/ history of percentage difficulty increase and plug into calc.

That's what I already do, but who knows what the difficulty is really going to do once all these ASICs get on the network (plus all the backup hash that ASICminer et al. are keeping from us at the moment.

I also use https://bitclockers.com/calc which gives a better ROI estimate. Anyone got any other calcs they use?

Kinetic915

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: lexis200 on June 11, 2013, 02:26:57 PM

Quote from: MZD on June 11, 2013, 02:22:21 PM

So worst case scenario is that every 12 months a ghz will earn you .05 BTC?

Is it unreasonable to think a ghz could mine 5 BTC in 12 months?

You could work it out yourself using this...

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

There's probably better calculators out there, but this is an easy one to use

Of course you still need a crystal ball to know what the difficulty is going to be!

Then just use http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ w/ history of percentage difficulty increase and plug into calc.

Kinetic915

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Well I really think its too late to participate in the "gold rush" once things level off and maybe next gen chips are introduced a good ROI can be calculated.

lexis200

member

Activity: 61

Merit: 10

Quote from: MZD on June 11, 2013, 02:22:21 PM

So worst case scenario is that every 12 months a ghz will earn you .05 BTC?

Is it unreasonable to think a ghz could mine 5 BTC in 12 months?

You could work it out yourself using this...

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

There's probably better calculators out there, but this is an easy one to use

Of course you still need a crystal ball to know what the difficulty is going to be!

MZD

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

So worst case scenario is that every 12 months a ghz will earn you .05 BTC?

Is it unreasonable to think a ghz could mine 5 BTC in 12 months?

Kinetic915

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

poor gpus

Xian01

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1067

Christian Antkow

Quote from: steamboat on June 10, 2013, 05:42:25 PM

Yes. Each K16 with the DIY kit option and up will come with the parts necessary to stack.

This is awesome to hear ! Was just trying to figure out the physical logistics of where to organize 18 K16's.

I would guess the fully assembled and tested units will also ship with parts necessary to stack as well ?

Cheers !

vs3

hero member

Activity: 622

Merit: 500

Quote from: atcsecure on June 11, 2013, 01:38:17 PM

is there enough demand for batch #6?

Looking up that address shows that exactly 80 chips have been paid so far. So (since #6 was announced 2 days ago) it does appear to be moving at a slightly slower pace than previous batches. On the other hand - that's probably normal as this is the first half (5k) and chips have not yet been purchased. I've noticed that once we get into the second half (where chips have been ordered already) the demand picks up as people try to get into the batch.

Topic: Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware - page 185. (Read 423279 times)