Topic: {LIST}of the Merit Sources asking for more smerit. New Round. - page 8. (Read 6725 times)

Tomorrow is exactly 6 months since the last merit adjustment.


I don't think we will be that exact this time but we are coming closer to that adjustments date. Waiting...

Dry Again!

#metoo... would be handy !

I’m always out, I could definitely do with an increase. Fingers crossed hey

Thanks man,

I just took my Covid-19 test ..I'm good see below

I glanced for a while with the merits you have sent for every post.
"scroll, scroll, scroll"
And I ask myself, do this man sleep? Hehe. Thank you for keeping up giving a merit for quality poster, useful threads and even to the ordinary user who has an ability to improve their writings.

You are one of my favourite user also here after fillippone, nullius and the pharmacist. Ops, I don't want to promote users. I just want to share my thoughts.

I know soon, your merit application will be granted.

Just be positive in life and stay negative in covid. LoL

Soon it's middle of May I'm again on 0 and I'm not a merti source yet... ;(


I think too... let's hope..

Maybe we can have another merit + .... could be suitable....

I think we can use some more.

We are coming close to May so hopefully we get some movement before the halving or at least the summer. Anyway bumping this as a reminder to theymos.
I'm out of smerit again, I'm not that active lately, mostly reading so respectively my received merit didn't change much.

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It's May, summer is coming, hopefully a good news as well

FTFY

Indeed, I don't know that he'll run it again in May.  But when 6 months from the last run comes up I'm going to nag him to do it.  I got seriously gimped in the last update because I'd been inactive for a while.

Yeah... fuck ongoing quarantine, even though it seems to be something that is going to take a while to resolve...... country by country and even state by state in the event that some countries cannot figure out the extent to which they need a nation-wide effort (maybe even an international effort, even though people really fear too much international coordinations including distrust issues about which leaders are going to end up fucking things up more than others) and let's just hope that theymos does not get any ideas to coordinate his smerit allocation tweakenings with releases from quarantine.. that would be a "tragic" outcome.

By the way, I would speculate that his November 2019 tweakenings have caused a higher percentage of smerit sources who actually are engaged in spreading out their smerits as compared to some earlier smerit sources who seemed to have not really believed in spreading out their source smerits.  Sometimes it can be a bit of work to spend some of the smerits and even to come across some members who really deserve some smerits, but some of us might not easily run across some of their posts in our regular meanderings around forum threads.

Let me dream about the big day: halvening AND tweaking all the same day. One day of mayhem in Economics and Meta.
Just fast forward my life quarantine.

Just to be clear, I did not send any smerit to expect any in return.  I did send the smerit largely based on our batting around this idea of speculating when or if theymos will tweak smerit allocations, and even though it seems to me that you are assigning a higher likelihood of tweakenings than me, I think that it was helpful for our back and forth discussion of the topic in terms of clarifying what evidence we are relying upon to reach our conclusions.  

Actually, in my first post, I thought that there had been some kind of text from theymos or evidence regarding theymos's expressed intentions in this direction that I may have been missing in terms of his having had said that he was going to smerit tweak within a given timeline, so in some ways, maybe I am patting myself on the back and sticking to my already assigned probability estimations, even if I might end up being wrong...

but sure, I am slightly (as you can see) leaning towards his tweaking within 10 days of the halvening.... but currently, my assigned odds of smerit allocation tweakenings are not really skewed with any large degree of confidence, exactly.

This is basically what I meant in my previous message.
And If I know the peep (presuming, perhaps erroneously, that Theymos is a peep), running a script has the double advantage (in Theymos eyes) of a very low effort task and abiding his will to an emotionless script, something he likes (given the scripts used allo over the forum, the DT1 selection script, already mentioned as an example).

PS. since I am here,Out of merits.



EDIT: One given, one sent.

I gather that in his November 14 PM, theymos is merely saying that he manually ran a perhaps one-time script that automated the process of adjusting the smerits for then sources within the guidelines that he ascribed to such script, and surely he could tweak the  script that he had created and use that script again if he manually deems running such script (or adjusted script) again would be a good thing to do.

This is very interesting information, i thought that theymos is doing all the adjustments manually, but of course why not automate something if you can.
Thanks for sharing this, now we wait until 19 of May... and for My MS application as well

Just now, I did a quickie look at theymos's posts around mid-November, and I do not see anything about "rebalancing in 6 months," but I did see in the PM that he sent to many merit source members that he had based the smerit adjustment on the past 6 months of usage.

Absent more or better evidence, I have to stick with my above asserted and assigned percentages, and yeah, I am not saying that I am correct in my assignment of probability.  I am just saying that is the assignment of probability that I currently have given based on the evidence that I have (and whatever logic I can muster), which maybe I am low balling the odds too much in a kind of waffling way.  I will concede that I frequently get things wrong, especially when attempting to predict the behavior of other peeps (presuming, perhaps erroneously, that theymos is a peep).

By the way, below is a copy of what I believe to have been the somewhat form message PM that theymos had sent on November 14, 2019 to most merit sources, just to attempt to refresh recollections regarding the relevant text (and context).

link=action=profile;u=35 date=[edited out]

The 6 months prediction came out of the length of the averaging window used by Theymos last time. 
So yes, he did mentioned back in November that new merit allowance is based on the average on the past 6 months total spent sMerits.
So yes, he didn't mention explicitly another rebalance in exactly 6 months.

If any of you recall, last time we had disclosures of more than a merit doubling for many merit sources that was in mid-November, at least that was disclosed by some smerit sources...  nearly a tripling for several sources.  

At the same time some smerit sources got cut in the fail to use and therefore lose kind of outcome.

Even though I would hate to go against any strongly held gmaxwell predictions, especially if I were to be playing against some of gmaxwell's strong suits, I am going to proclaim that theymos has not specifically committed to 6 months in the case of smerits, he has merely proclaimed that he will look at smerits from time to time, as far as I recall.  

Anyhow, seems difficult to wager upon theymos specifics, and even if he will tweak the smerit allocations in any kind of clockwork way because I don't recall that theymos had really stated that level of specifics with any actual words, so gmaxwell had been applying an algorithm to theymos, and maybe theymos is actually a computer program, and gmaxwell knows about that (cats out of the bag - you heard it here first)?

Remember with the default trust, theymos said something like he would adjust default trust list of 100 DT1s at "about" the beginning of each month, but I don't recall coming across anything even close to that level of specifics from theymos in regards to any 6 months/merit tweakenings even if such past practice of 6 months is identifiable.  

TLDR:  Personally, based on information outlined above, I am assigning 56.5/43.5 odds, at best, in favor of smerit tweakenings within 10 days of the halvening.