Topic: Litecoin Is NOT Dead (It Is Just Dying A Slow Death) - page 6. (Read 28336 times)

I agree with your train of thought here.

Except that I feel it is possible that Bitcoin could be replaced as king at some point in time.

Alright, I get what you are saying now and I agree this has affected Litecoin's price. However, I don't see how this helps the argument of why Litecoin is a good investment. Your assumption that it will work itself out over time is just that, an assumption. An assumption that I personally don't agree with due to the reasons I stated earlier.


I will take your word for that, but again I don't see how this helps the argument for Litecoin as to the big picture. I find it unlikely that it is not a combination of this and shifting market sentiment, as is evident from a lot of people posting their opinions and the market. You make it seem as if this is the only reason for the downtrend.. ASIC miners dumping.


That doesn't make sense to me. If you're going to bring market cap into the debate about ASICs being a reason for the downtrend, then I feel like Bitcoin's market cap at the time ASICs were introduced (Feb. through August 2013) should be compared with Litecoin's market cap at the time ASICs were introduced (Dec. 2013 through today).


I still don't get how this helps your argument. There are more people around to buy Litecoins and Litecoin mining hardware, yet the price is going down and the network is becoming more centralized. How does this help make your point?


I agree the media has some sway, and there are more reporters covering crypto currency today than a year ago. However, after a quick search there is only one or two articles stating Litecoin is stagnant or dying. I'm not so sure this is the reason either, there are way more people in the crypto currency community stating this than in the press.

Agreed the landscape has changed a lot sense then, it is why I've change my opinion on Litecoin.

As to your point of Litecoin not dying with the huge dump.. market sentiment won't change overnight unless something drastic were to happen. It will take time for market sentiment to shift, and it has been slowly shifting that way for 6 months now. I don't think Litecoin is "out of the woods" quite yet.


Agreed

BTC will continue to be adopted by business/investors/consumers and LTC will not unfortunately. Satoshi's don't allow LTC to be a silver currency. LTC offers nothing new, and the speculation buying is over, you will see some small spikes, but it will indeed die.  I like Charlie Lee, a great guy and appreciate what he's done for Crypto.

Quark, it's already replaced by a new wave of shit alts and will never rise again, it will die a lot faster than LTC along with many other.

Usability rules all, look at Doge and Aurora, even with spectacular marketing, it's going down the toilet.  Big money investors and business always look at usability first.

Nothing will replace BTC as Crypto Gold, POW.  You will see other Crypto's being adopted in different verticals; POS, storage, smart contracts, etc...  But again there will be only one to rule each vertical.  Right now I see Nxt as the POS king.  I see Ethereum as the Smart Contract/Script king.  I predict Sia as the Storage king (not maidsafe), etc...  More verticals will be created and we will hopefully see more innovative Cryptos.  It's a crazy time, but very exciting.  

My advice for investors, ride the IPO wave for new alts, then sell and buy a king coin.

I don't buy Cryptos to sell them, I buy Cryptos to use them, I have never sold a Crypto for Fiat (believe it or not), so take my advice as a holder and not a day trader.

I couldn't agree more.

Ltc is at least definitely gonna spike with the coming spike in btc.

I've posted in other threads that as BTC continues to make the transition from "underground" to "mainstream" (more adoption every day, more wall st. types involved every day, etc.) there is going to be a void. With more acceptance will come more scrutiny & regulation. People who (have) used BTC to buy pot, buy guns, send money across the globe for whatever reason will (at some point) shy away from BTC due to the above.

There needs to be a legit alternative to BTC that is viable. Will it be LTC? My guess is likely not. I just don't see a whole lot from the LTC community in terms of evolution and innovation of the coin.

Which coin is it? No idea, but there are only a handful (if that) that could emerge that are bringing either actual innovation to the table or have a legit community behind it (not going to name names)... but I don't think it will be an IPO coin or a POS coin that proves to be viable long-term.

When I say supply, I mean on the exchanges...which portion of the supply is being used to define the price/market for the coin. That is in constant flux, but the constant selling pressure that has been exerted on Litecoin in the last 3-4 months has been unprecedented.



Because I watch the addresses that are public and the market behavior on a daily basis. All but one of the five largest solo miners have dumped the majority of what they've mined to their wallet addresses. When you look at the launch of the Innosilicon devices, the week after they started deploying in China saw a VERY clear start of the strong extended downtrend we're in. It's like there's a bright flashing neon arrow pointing at that date on Bitcoinwisdom.


I'm referring to Bitcoin's market cap at the time it experienced the ASIC transition, relative to today. But there were FAR, far fewer eyes on Bitcoin at that time than are currently on both it and Litecoin, right now. That and the media have a much greater sway over sentiment than existed when the Bitcoin community was relatively small and very few news outlets reported on it. The entire landscape has changed since then. So the conditions that prevail around Litecoin right now are unlike what Bitcoin had to go through...and it's still holding up, even with a whale dumping his load all over the market, tonight. That's my point...it is going to take a LOT to kill Litecoin off. The market is dealing with some real stiff challenges at the moment and it has resisted a crash.

Things are going to look a lot different by the end of 2014. Time will tell, whose prediction was right.

Nope, but someone did sell about 200k ltc on btc-e a few minutes ago. That was one costly error.

Yes... when will that be happening?

 

Is Litecoin in free fall right now? 

LTC to Gox ?

Supply stays more or less the same no matter who has control of the hash power or how many hashes they throw at it. That is the whole purpose of adjusting difficulty. To debate this point is dumb, just go look at the block frequency chart: http://cryptometer.org/litecoin_60_month_charts.html

What you mean to say is that the supply is more centralized towards big players with deep pockets and/or hardware manufacturers than it used to be.


You don't like me making inferences, so why are you allowed to make them? Do you know these large miners personally? How can you be sure it is them that are selling Litecoins and not someone that already owned Litecoins who has recently changed their mind about it?

We'll agree to disagree on that one, ASICs brings centralization. Why would people buy mining equipment if it won't break even due to people with deep pockets and/or the mark up from mining hardware manufacturers? The idea that it's going to magically fix itself over time doesn't make sense to me. If it doesn't make sense to buy mining hardware (in terms of profit), then what is the point? There are very few people that mine just "to protect the network".

This isn't even as centralized as I am expecting Bitcoin/Litecoin to become. It will get much worse as old money, old money crypto, bankers, and VCs go full throttle on the mining landscape. Due to economies of scale, massive institutions with deep pockets can make a lot of mining hardware much cheaper than what the average miner can buy them for at retail prices.

That is not true. Litecoin is at about a $252 million market cap right now.. I wouldn't exactly say that's "a whole hell of a lot less money" compared to Bitcoin's Feb 2013 market cap of $228 million. Look at February 2013 forward: http://www.quandl.com/BCHAIN/MKTCP-Bitcoin-Market-Capitalization

The arrival of Bitcoin ASICs also made it more centralized, but they did not see a similar dip in price. Go from February 2013 forward: http://www.quandl.com/BAVERAGE/USD-USD-BITCOIN-Weighted-Price

I agree that there are more people around now than in Feb. 2013, but I'm not sure how this makes a difference in the topic at hand. More people are around to buy Litecoin and Litecoin mining hardware, yet the price is falling and the network is becoming more centralized. How does that support your argument?

It has also lost some ground denominated in Bitcoins. You are also making an assumption that no other coin could hold up, as it hasn't happened yet so know one knows what would happen. Again you assume all the dumping is ASIC miners... I think I heard Smoothie himself say he didn't currently have a stake in Litecoin... this is another large assumption as well that it is only ASIC miners dumping. I think personally it is both ASIC miners dumping and market sentiment is shifting. I'd like to state again, Bitcoin's price didn't slip when their ASICs came out, why should Litecoin be given a free pass as to this being the reason for the price falling?

whooh wait a minute i didn't know that , maybe i will have to review that previous statement. that is an appalling concentration, say what you want about Quark pools but with SOLO miners,  what?

Supply hasn't stayed the same (supply released into circulation). You currently have over 30% of the entire network hashrate accounted for by just FIVE wallet addresses (solo miners). Over on Coinotron there are two miners with over 6 GH/s in hashrate each, and the next two on the list each have over 3 GH/s.

That has concentrated an abnormally gigantic amount of the block rewards into a very few hands and they are all making a mad dash toward ROI, before the even larger hardware starts shipping this month and next, reducing their percentage of the network to a fraction of what it is today.

But it is an abnormal condition for so few miners to have so much of the new coin production...and it won't remain the case as the network is taken over by ASICs and the hashrate redistributes to something approximating normal. The only other coin to have ever gone through this transition is Bitcoin...and it did it at a time when there were a LOT fewer eyes on it and a whole hell of a lot less money involved.

Realistically, no other coin in existence could hold up under these conditions...but Litecoin has not failed. It has lost some ground in price denominated in dollars, but not nearly as much as one would expect, considering the rampant dumping.

this.

and ouch El Dudeo.

I think LTC can go far far lower and at that time i'll be buying, because i think they will/can pull though,(probably)

i would be buying the "brand" similar to the "Quark Brand", then trying to get them to listen to the wider community to dev that brand, i.e do the things that need to be done like maybe break ASICS? etc.

the brand is too good to just throw, and i like the name - but maybe change it to "Light" much better visual (literally)

Have fun with the poll, guys

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ltc-and-nxt-market-caps-meeting-point-673552

At the rate it's dropping, you may just have to remove the word slow from the title.

I'm trying to have an earnest debate. The definition of trolling should not be anyone that has a difference of opinion and speaks it..


Not necessarily, but it is evidence that people are cashing out of Litecoin and see the problems with it that I see.



The difference is Bitcoin is rebounding and Litecoin is not. These are the USD charts for each the past 3 months:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=3-months&resolution=day&pair=btc-usd&market=btc-e
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=3-months&resolution=day&pair=ltc-usd&market=btc-e

This must be a coincidence?


And those "obvious" reasons are what?

I believe this has everything to do with sentiment, that is how prices of crypto currencies are established, supply and demand. The demand has gone down over the past 6 months and you can't deny it as the supply stays the same.. that is the point of difficulty.

Anyways, if you aren't happy with me using BTC/LTC charts.. the USD/LTC chart looks pretty much the same:
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=6-months&resolution=day&pair=ltc-usd&market=btc-e



The reason why I believe Litecoin is no longer a good investment is not because the price has gone down, it is because of the arguments I've discussed in this thread. The price is just a good indicator that there are others that agree with me.

Also, the difference there is that the news media mostly has no idea what they're talking about, and I have studied crypto currencies hours (sometimes days) at a time for about 2 years now.

FIFY

There have been more selling pressure than buys. Lots of Litecoins have been put up for sell making the volume go up. There is nothing to be proud of high volume when the price is going down for months.