I never bought into crypto replacing fiat, because that would mean governments no longer exist, and I don't see how that would happen. I also didn't buy replacing contracts and law with code, which is why I think the whole ETH thing is, fascinating yes, but in practice a big bubble.
But BTC? it's as "simple" as being able to store value outside of the system and move it around. Is this vaporware? nope, it already works, has been working for 8+ years and working. How the fuck is this the same as toxic derivatives?
I'm not saying that it is vaporware in the short term. I have to say I was immensely enthusiastic about crypto when I discovered it, and when I slowly found out that it is just another speculative tool, to pump money out of peers (<-- because that is what it is essentially), I got seriously disappointed about it, and then I started to realize why it was that way. Of course, this is just my opinion, but I think it is an opinion that has some grounds to it. Take a step back, forget about what was *claimed* about bitcoin (and crypto in general), and try to see what people really do with it. Most people speculate on it, with the idea of getting rich quickly. Some did: early adopters that were smart enough to keep their cheaply acquired stash. That's all you have to see. I don't know how much this forum is representative for the whole bitcoin/crypto ecosystem (I don't want to call it a community, because it isn't - any more - it is not a set of people with a common greater good and goal, but a crab bucket of antagonists trying to rip off one another), but people are talking all the time about "making money with bitcoin/crypto" ; making a benefit ; .... When you look at some of the big overlords in the bitcoin ecosphere, they are talking about financial products like ETF. When you look at the few ETH applications that work somewhat, they are about gambling.
Of course, you can say that these speculators are the visionaries that see today, the economic value of tomorrow. My ass. These people apply technical analysis to try to see where the next pump is, and try to short on the next dump. As such, the true economic value of this crypto business exists, but is small. The true economic value of bitcoin consists in those economic transactions it made possible, that weren't possible without it (that is to say, with fiat) - not because it was geeky and fancy to use bitcoin instead of one's credit card. There IS such economic value (mainly in dark markets), but it is microscopic as compared to the market cap of bitcoin, and it is not what drives "investment" in bitcoin. On the other hand, bitcoin is quite expensive: it costs about $400 million per year in mining costs. I wonder whether the economic creation by bitcoin (that is, the extra economic activity it generated by allowing transactions that couldn't take place otherwise) even compensates its cost. As such, all the rest is a zero-sum game: the benefits of some, are the losses of others.
That is what characterises financial speculation, like the whole (indeed toxic) derivatives market. This is why I see big parallels between both worlds. It is mainly a huge zero-sum game, where participants try to rip off one another. In as much as one is counting on a systematic rise, it is a greater-fool game (early entrants ripping off latecomers: the greater fools). In as much as one is just exploiting volatility, it is a zero-sum game (smart traders ripping off less smart traders).
And now, why is it that way ? Because its design is that way: the emission curve, the PoW difficulty adaption, the hard limits in it and the delusionally promises (doing away with banks, replacing fiat...). Whether by mistake or on purpose, this is designed to be a speculative tool, and not a currrency.