Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 35. (Read 85774 times)

Try a high time frame and don't use leverage. Profit.

Not enough of a consolidation for me yet.



I could go long now on the AB=CD breakout that seems to be setting up, it could fake out, and then tank down to $650, which wouldn't even be a 38.2% retrace of the move up from just a couple of weeks ago, which in light of the series of huge pulse moves up, would be absolutely nothing other than a healthy bull market correction, but if I were long, at $700 or nearabouts, and that were to happen, I would have to stop myself out of my position, otherwise spend a period of time in a state of high anxiety wondering whether the market was gonna come back to me or not. Last time around as I described, I sat, held, drank the Bitcoin Kool-Aid (for the very last time), and convinced myself the market was coming back to me......and that was a big mistake.

So in short, saving for the most solid of long continuation setups coming together, I don't think I can be going long here with so much room and unfinished business down below.

Oda.Krell and Wexlike have very good points about trading higher timeframes...believe it or not, on higher timeframes, I have been bullish on Bitcoin for some time, zoomed into lower timeframes with margin trades, I am losing sight of the bigger picture, always suspicious of the market's intentions, and ultimately basically missing the good long trending trades which are the whole point of trading Bitcoin to begin with....similar to Wexlike, I like every other Bitcoin trader, had my eyes on targets which are now well on there way to being hit, albeit tainted with my usual cynicsim when it comes to Bitcoin:






....as well as the clinical 'Break Out' trade that Wexlike posted, and apparently took, and had held up until now:






In all likelihood, my problem in trading Bitcoin is that I really don't believe it is inherently worth anything, and have too much mostly negative emotional baggaged attached to it, which affects my ability to hold a BTC long position with any degree of confidence or belief.

This is MatTheCat style, armageddon posting idiocy.  When the price went from $230 to $500 in a shooting star in Nov 2015, it did a retrace to 38.2% fib level of $340ish.  The current rise is NOT a shooting star, yet even if it was and followed the same jump and crash fib retracement as that shooting star example, that would put it at $600 if it topped out at $840.  There will not be any dump like that because like I said, the current rise is not a shooting star, and the cost of production is also doubling, where it did not in the previous example.  

Since it's not possible to go all the way down to the 38.2% like in the November shooting star event, the fib retracement levels off a $840 then dump would be:  $758, $692, or $645.  Since the price didn't even spend time in the $645 range at all, and like I said, cost of production is doubling, I doubt it could go do a lower fib retracement than $692 if it decided to dump from the $800's.  Miners themselves would generally be buying everything that gets low post halving.

This was literally the easiest trade investment I've ever done. I assume we might experience some resistance before the halving. Sell-the-news-stuff. New ATH after a correction to the 5XX$ region. If I would trade currently, I would take some proft in the 820-920 area. Bitcoin tends to overshot resistances by a few points just to scare trader off.

Mat's a valuable asset to this forum. Zero irony there. Solid writing style, reliable source of entertainment (and source of more entertainment in reaction to him), plus the occasional actual market insight that shines through. What's not to like?

I said as much a while ago in a different thread of his: most likely, he'd get better trading results by switching the time scales of his trades, going from what seems to be subdaily to weekly skim-style trades to (weekly, maybe monthly) swing trades. That, and what Kramerc said.

Do you still refuse to jump on BTC train Mat?

Mat, have you decided if the halving will occur yet?

God damn it, Mat.

In a way I think you actually have some of the skills necessary to be a good trader. Sadly, you don't (yet) have the ones necessary to keep you profitable, which are patience and discipline.

In my opinion you should take a break and then come back with a clear mind, wherever the market might be. Or, if you really don't believe in bitcoin's future and potential, just trade something else altogether, because I find it makes you (too) emotional about trading it.

lol.

I guess more ammo for the MatTheCat random quote generator.

Not true, cos it's worse than that.

I got long at $232...and held for fucking ages...saw $315, and then away back down to $100s, so when it got back up to $325, I sold......Bitcoin then kept going up, so I sent double the money I originally had at the exchange, and FOMO bought at $390, sat starting at $500, refused to sell on consolidation back down at $370, then despair sold at $300.

This was the point I decided to learn to trade. The focus of the early part of the course I took, was very much on range trading. I was kind of getting good at at, but was always getting FU'd out of positions, cos that is just what happens to n00b traders on Bitfinex, then I started to string together some good results, so decided to start this thread, which was the start of me learning that range trade setups don't work too well in the face of a raging bull market.....actually looking at stuff like MAs, and TREND IS UR FRIEND, wasn't until part 2 of the course (which is something I was pretty pissed about), by which time the market was already teaching me all about not betting against the trend....and now here I am.....

....one of the reasons that I haven't FOMO bought Bitcoin ages ago, like I done many times before, is cos I have learned not to FOMO buy. In most market states, this would be a very wise decision. During the Bitcoin pump, it has proven to be a terrible decision, and of course, at some point on this totally and utterly manufactured pump, FOMO buying will prove to be a terrible terrible decision for a great deal of market participants. It always does.


Otherwise at the moment you are right. I am a loser trader, and I make terrible decisions, even though my broader judgement is often pretty good. There are clearly psychological reasons for the conscious decisions that I make, that go against the more subtle, but wiser subconscious instincts, and nothing will force a person to take a good look at himself, in regards to all this sort of stuff, like trading. I consider all this simply part of the learning process, a learning process that I wouldn't undergo, had I just put $10K or whatever into Bitcoin in 2015 and forgot about it up until now.


Overall, I have given more to the Bitcoin market than I have taken from it. But since learning to trade, I have taken more from Bitcoin market than I have given to it, so despite having missed around 85% of this pump so far, I am perfectly happy with the way things are going, and quite frankly, I see learning not to give a fuck about missing some manufactured ramp (these things happen all time, all over the place), is just part of the necessary learning process.

Mat makes me sad.  

Whilst I and others called the Bitcoin bottom incorrectly (partly because we bulls just don't care, and will suffer a little in the red just to continue to accumulate more because we know it's going to be HUGE one day), Mat called the bottom correctly at around $200/btc.  He was supposedly sitting on cash at the time, but because he sees Bitcoin as nothing more than a short term scammy trading vehicle, he refused to get long at $200/btc and just ride it out.  Probably just blew it all on more drugs.

Now he says that he's been calling the $800 level correctly the whole time.  But still refused to get long and continue accumulating at around $200, which he'd be in a nice long position and now up 300%.  Even with a 50% retrace, he'd still be way ahead of the game.

But alas, he's just been chasing it all the way up from $300 or so... just to sell at every 5% gain or loss, with more losses than gains.

Good going Mat.  You will forever be a loser, never a winning investor.

Some people just aren't meant to succeed in life. You have been on these forums for years. You have had YEARS to enter a bitcoin position. You don't even have to believe in it, simply recognise the obvious trend.

One other thing, betting the house on the end of the world isn't a great investment strategy.

Ach fuck...missed class.....got waaaaay more smashed on MEscaline today than I bargained 4.
Matthew 8 days ago
 
$677 Bitcoin incoming....
Matthew 8 days ago
 
Ouch, and was VP
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
the one you were awaiting for
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
$540 Woudl be a good buy in price, and about as deep as it is gonna cut.
Matthew 8 days ago
 
was very nice/cool as always
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
I will get on rewind..
Matthew 8 days ago
 
but you already know the hoag a bit, so ...
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
Normally I would be good by 10pm...but NOT today.
Matthew 8 days ago
 
you said 677$
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
not 577$
Jeremy
8 days ago
 
Mescaline speaking mate..
Matthew 8 days ago
 
yep.

Lifted from message box chat for my journal. (the '8 days ago' is outdated)

 

Why don't you buy already instead of complaining. That the bitcoin price will be higher at some point in the next couple of weeks is a no-brainer.

Not true.

I have been saying that I liked $800 range Bitcoin for months....my brother was surprised to learn that I had made hardly any money from the recent pumps.

"What do you mean you haven't made any money!?, You have been going on aboot this Bitcoin pump for ages!"

What I do consistently make, are fucking atrocious trading decisions. I called $677 Bitcoin around 2 weeks ago (not here). My plan was to get long from around $540 on the retrace. It never came. When bitcoin broke out through important resistance zones that I told myself would trigger a buy signal for me, I did nothing, cos it felt like I was chasing the market, and I have learned never to chase.

As for right now, I have no strong opinion on what Bitcoin is going to do next. It looks like it wants to break up. Indeed, the long AB=CD trade entry signal has already been triggered......but for me to finally take that trade, only for Bitcoin to finally do what common sense dictates that it must do, would be entirely fucking typical, and it would probably destroy my mental capital for good.

I find I can trust my 'judgement' on things. But my decision making is fucking shocking.

i use to think there was a good change gold would get most of the wealth xfer, but bitcoin would still outpreform gold because it market has so much more room to grow.

but you're  so consistently wrong in the most precise way one can be wrong, that now i'm thinking most of he wealth xfer will indeed flow into bitcoin, gold will collapse, and bitcoin will explode.

thanks for the heads up.

Gold is real.

Bitcoin is the very definition of 'vapour'.

When the great wealth of the world goes into panic mode, when equities are total shit, governments are looking increasingly insolvent, and central banks don't have anymore tools up their sleeves except for even more negative interest rates, where are is the great wealth gonna go? Into a experimental and flawed prototype digital token, that the Chinese government could kill at the snap of a finger if they had the mind to do so, or into a rare valuable commodity, produced in the very final moments of a dying star, and which has been sought after and viewed as a representation of wealth by humanity for thousands of years.

Nice, Mat constantly complains that Bitcoin is "manipulated", and then ventures in to try his luck in the gold markets - the most manipulated market on earth haha.

If/when the next financial meltdown comes, this is where the great wealth of the world is going to go, (and not into ropey nasty vapourware Bitcoin):