Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 23. (Read 6269 times)

True: the lottery is random and unexpected, thus prior numbers dont affect future results. Your grandfather's instance is the Gambler's Fallacy, when one assumes a given occurrence will happen based on past happenings. Unfortunately, the lottery doesnt care about regularity or consistency. Buying additional tickets may boost odds, but not the outrageous odds. Winners are further diluted by taxes. And playing solely when there's a big jackpot is a typical technique, but greater jackpots mean more players, which can lower your projected return. Gamblers often worry about missing out, especially with friends. However, your savings from not playing often can be invested for higher, more consistent results. Personally, I find the lottery dull. It lacks strategic depth and analysis like other gaming. Diversify your risks and bet wisely. Your pocketbook will appreciate.

Of course, the authorities of all countries treat the gambling industry badly.  I think it's because it's quite difficult to understand what the tax base of this business is, how much money passes through the casino in cash, which is difficult to control.  In addition, with the development and prosperity of the gambling industry in some territory, the number of people addicted to gambling is sure to grow, and some even require medical help with sometimes even forced isolation.  These factors, of course, require budget expenditures. 
And in a completely different way you can control lotteries.  It is much simpler, there are no such addicted players as in gambling, and in principle, the prices of lottery tickets and the number of tickets sold alow you to unambiguously calculate how much money passes through the lottery organizer.  This is great for accurately determining taxes.  That is why it seems to me that lotteries are not only not banned by the authorities if they are official and controlled by local regulators, bute they are even welcomed, since in particular they serve as an additional source of replenishment for the local budget.

I admit that luck is required in any form of gambling and might be solely required in some games too, but when it comes to lotteries, although it might not be all, I'm sure that math plays its role as well. I say this because I have a friend who is an agent of a lottery company, I witnessed how players including himself forecast based on calculation. The only issue here is the time the lottery company will pick among the old numbers' time, and this is key to knowing the right combinations to come and it's not certain for anyone. Still, they follow some pattern and it works for them. If not, I wonder how people cash out daily on such Lotto, even those who won with between 4-6 numbers did so after they had forecasted it.

The only time we can attribute it to luck entirely is when someone who doesn't know about it just played it and won at random. But these guys do their math also, and some even often win.

The idea that someone who won the lottery on his first attempt should have played already 10 years is not really correct, because his numbers wouldn't have won back then. Just because it won today doesn't mean he would have always won on the first try. There is a difference in choosing numbers randomly and always picking the same numbers, but the winning chances are always the same. The only way to increase our winning chances is to buy more tickets, there is not strategy that we can follow that is going to make us win the lottery. The whole idea of the lottery is based on the fact that people don't care so much if they have 5 or 10 bucks more in the wallet or not. The chances of becoming a millionaire overnight are much more valuable than saving all the money we spend on lottery over our life. The whole concept of taxes in lottery is what makes a bad deal for the players and still millions of people play every week. My grandfather is the best example, he played the lottery every week for 30+ years and never won anything big. I think his biggest win was something like 250 Euro in today’s money. That is why I only play when there is a huge jackpot and only because all my friends win. The worst thing would be if my friends beat the jackpot and I would be the only won not playing and missing out on millions.

I want to match that it is true, if this guy buy tickets to the one lottery. If he buy 10 tickets of the one draw the second ticket has chances 1/(10⁸-1), the third - 1/(10⁸-2), etc. If he buy 10 tickets every week for different lotteries or different lottery draws he still has 10/10⁸ because the numbers will change.
PS. I don`t think that there is some difference between these situations but if the guy buy 10 tickets of the one draw - his chances are higher than if he buy 10 tickets of different lotteries.

Left alone that most people in the world wouldn't be able to save such amount in a whole life. That's why I think that, apart from rare cases where the players waste big amounts, lottery is a beautiful game where, with very little money, you can achieve great things in terms of positively dreaming about a dear life.

Saving is definitely a good option but saving takes years before you can hit a million, that’s why people will rather chose to try their own luck and become instant millionaires when their combination digits hit the jackpot prize. The bad thing here is when they become addicted to lottery, and they can’t control anymore their betting amount. That’s the reason why betting lottery in the long run isn’t worthy at all, not because they can’t be lucky to win, but it’s rare to see people winning such a huge amount, unless if he stick to his combination number for more than a decade.

Oh, sorry, I do not understand what you mean.

The person who bought and won the lottery may be able to get one, regardless of how long ago they bought the lottery ticket. And yes, I agree that it is a matter of luck but when it comes to buying lottery tickets, those who are used to buying them will keep buying them until they win the jackpot prize. And most of them will not calculate the chances of winning and buying the lottery ticket. They just know that they must buy the lottery ticket even if it takes a long time to win.

Gambling is based on two set of the gamblers,one is the guy who strongly believe on a math.As like other games the ambling also depend on the math was the theory of that people.Second one is purely based on the luck like you.So this type of gambling people don’t do create of any tactics for the game.They gamble and check the luck,if the luck is not favour the gambler will quit the gambling for certain period of time.Then he arrange some capital for the gambling,they back to gambling again to check the luck.

I think it is about luck, not math.  Math only calculates the chance of winning but to trigger that chance is all random and the person who got it right is lucky enough to come up with the winning number combination.  Anyway, I read that both of you have almost the same point of view so I guess we all agreed that winning the lottery is a matter of a person's luck and buying more number combinations gives the buyer a higher chance to win the lottery even though the ratio is almost ignorable.

You didn't get my point. The guy who won the lottery after six years could have won it on the first atempt as he could spend his entire life buying tickets without ever winning. It is a matter of luck.
It's not about what I believe, it's about math. Let's suppose the lottery number is 8 digits long. Each ticket you buy gives you 1/10⁸ chance of winning. If you buy 10 tickets your odds are 10/10⁸.
Each round is independent from the previous one.

That's your assumption but people out there don't think so. They think buying 10 tickets a week will give them a chance to win. After all, the ticket numbers will also be different and that's where they think that with different numbers, they can have a chance to win every week. Even though they couldn't win, it was okay for them.

You may also often hear stories about people who have been buying the lottery for more than 5 years but have not been able to win. But in the 6th year, they managed to win the jackpot. So is it wrong if they think about buying their lottery tickets every week, even if it's only 10 tickets? Of course not, mate.

The low price of tickets become their consideration in using the money. And I'm sure they already have a special budget to buy lottery tickets. So it makes sense, right?

That is why some people are willing to buy lottery tickets because they hope to change their lives through the lottery. They will continue to buy lottery tickets until they win, and then they will stop and use the winnings to change their lives, even though there are people who will continue to buy lottery tickets to get another win.

People who buy lottery tickets must have prepared a budget to buy the tickets. Even if they haven't, they will probably calculate how much money they have to use to be able to buy the lottery ticket. But there are also people who just buy tickets in different amounts because it suits the funds they have. Maybe they don't think it's worth it to do it for a long time because they want to try to get the jackpot prize. That's what makes them not stop buying lore tickets because there is a jackpot waiting for them. Those people are already thinking about how much they can buy each week or month so it's not a problem for them.

They will have their own calculations if they want to buy lottery tickets and will not force themselves if they cannot buy lottery tickets in large quantities. But surely some people will immediately buy tickets in large quantities even though they have difficulty preparing the budget.

Lottery is a combination of number games and one needs to hit all those numbers to win.  In a six number lotto draw, there is only 1 in a millions percentage that a person will win so it does really make sense that people would find it hard to win in this game.  It also makes sense if it will take too long for someone to have the right combination since the probability of winning is too low.


This has nothing to do with the lottery, it is the person's fault for being to hooked on the game and making it his personal goal to win making him anxious about everything when the moment of the lotto draw came.  It is a good thing that your relative has come to their senses that it gives them nothing but stress and frustration, and stopped buying lottery tickets.

Thats what triggers them on making out bets on which you would really be able to have the chance or opportunity on changing your life when it comes to finances and this what triggers for you to bet on lotteries

despite of the impossible odds on hitting up the jackpot but well there would be always a winner despite of those odds which this one makes them thinkin that what if they would be able to hit up those combinations?
This is something that you would really be having in mind in terms of kind of interest but we know that buying up tons of tickets for a long period of time would really be resulting into such spending which it isnt really that worth anymore.As long you are still in moderation or in control when it comes to your spending on buying tickets then it should really be just fine. There are really just those people who are really that impulsive when it comes on buying tickets on where it do leads up on a spending on which it isnt worth anymore. Even myself do even comes into a point that on the time that did i make some betting on lottery had been imagining on winning that huge amount and thinking up the life at its fullest but sadly it was just a dream. 

This is why it would really be that suggested that you should really be only betting the amount which would be extra on which it wont really be hurting you despite on making up some lottery betting for so long.
Its not bad to dream but dont make yourself able to reach out on a condition on which you are already day-dreaming or you are already that too desperate.

I'm certain you understand how lottery games work and what the odds of winning in such games are, right! Buying 10 tickets every week or every round for 10 consecutive weeks/rounds, will give you the same chance of winning as when you buy 10*number of weeks/rounds in a single week/round (this may vary depending on how many tickets are being sold on each round). The low price of tickets doesn't mean any thing, it doesn't affect the chances of winning.

Since government themselves support lottery and it activities then there nothing bad in applying for one than in gambling which most of the government to against, lottery us believed as a way the government or private individuals tryout to reach to the people towards the community building initiative and they don't view it as a gambling, instead they encourage for more applications through these process as for those willing to risk their application for being accepted.

And with a small amount of money, people are willing to buy lottery tickets, especially at low prices, they can get lots of tickets. And even if they can't win that round, they will still want to buy the lottery ticket because the money used to buy the ticket is also cheap. Maybe that's how they "save the money" by buying into the lottery and hoping they will be the winners one day. And it has been going on for a long time, and in fact, many people may have bought tickets since they were young and until now have not managed to win. But that doesn't stop them from buying their lottery tickets because a big prize is waiting for them out there.

In the case a gambler is addicted to lottery, there is no doubt that he should save the money instead. But in the OP the situation I was talking about was about spending as less as possible to keep dreaming. For instance, in my country, you can bet once a week, for a whole year, for around 50€, which is not a sum that would maje any difference if saved instead. I even mentioned the possibility of being charged about 1€ a year along with other taxes. I believe that most people spend such little amounts when playing lotteries, so I don't think your example can be generalized to them.

I have a friend, who has a "PC in his head" - he calculates everything and counts everything is it useful or useless. It is difficult and, as for me, dull enough, but when i see the result and it really impresses. He don`t eat junk food, don`t buy any lottery tickets but invest all saved money. As the result he get every month income about several thousand dollars from investments. And he is only about 30 years old. So he can don`t work right now due to tickets he didn`t buy.
Of course there are people who wins the prize and there are people who deserve it. But my friend will reach the result much faster than such people.

Frankly speaking, this is not to downplay on the facts buttressed or the focal point, in my head, i consider lotteries not worthy of either Possible, Probable or even Proven to indulge in.

Why not just save up some money and pursue what you see as the reward an down it. If you have a million people chasing whats meant for one person, what happens to the 999999 people when the 1 person finally wins. I don't think its worth it.