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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33923. (Read 26720580 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1026
In a very bigger picture.. it's triangle time soon.

member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
supernode

it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.
So we are on the way to the "real bottom" now?

Euphoria last grasp
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
I grant you the bolded part. I think we all agree that long term Bitcoin will be huge - the truth is that we are all bullish about BTC at the end of the day, which is normal because this is bitcointalk.org

We just differ on short-term moves, on which is the top or bottom for the next few days, or weeks… I have to agree with you that it seems that we will not have such a pronounced decline as in 2011, and the recovery will also be faster. Heck, I even think that we won't go below $50 again - that's pretty bullish in my book, considering that in January we were below $20. I don't know if consolidation will be 2-3 months or 6 months, but it definitely doesn't looks like an entire year of decline + another full year for consolidation like we had after the burst of the 2011 bubble.

In 2011 a lot of people screamed "PONZI!!" and turned their backs to BTC. A lot of people thought Bitcoin was gone for good. It seems to me that now the mentality is much different: people knows Bitcoin is here to stay, and it's just a matter of WHEN the next growth cycle will start.

That's fucking deep, man.

Also, I tend to agree. What many people seem to forget when they talk about "fundamentals" vs. "market craze" is that, in the real world, there are two possibly outcomes wrt. bitcoin usage (I'm simplifying, in reality there's a near-continuum of outcomes, but follow my line of thought for a second): 1) bitcoin succeeds. 2) bitcoin fails.

If 2), our investment is toast anyway. But if 1), well, then at some point even the most bearish market participants will agree that it's being adopted, and will start buying, thus drivin the price up.

Now, we have no influence on the question if it'll be scenario 1) or 2) (another simplification. the whole thing is a feedback loop, so our market actions do actually influence fundamentals/adoption). So the only question to answer for us is how is the market sentiment now, and in the near future?. And I think you described it accurately: it's not so much that most people think "Damn, we're going down", or even "I hope we're not going down any further", but rather "Even if we go down, my long term conviction is we're going up, so I'm going to load up on coins at the lowest possible price.", or at most something like "I hope we're not going down *too* much, or recovery will take too long."

Let's say that's an accurate description of the market sentiment.  Then the price won't really have a chance to slide down in a slow trajectory like it did in 2011. Hit bottom a few more times? Maybe. Test 50 again? Sure, could happen. But any correction still necessary won't take place at such an indifferent speed like back then.
full member
Activity: 174
Merit: 253

it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.
So we are on the way to the "real bottom" now?
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
supernode


  Hmmm, any similarities ...?

it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
This account was recently hacked
insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

Oh hush your mouth - that's half the posts on this forum you are depreciating  Shocked

The trouble with charts like that is that they're fractal patterns, which as you say look similar at any level of zoom, much like a coastline does.  It's easy to see patterns that aren't really there, or to dismiss ones which are.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

Oh hush your mouth - that's half the posts on this forum you are depreciating  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
So final capitulation is already behind us? That's great news! Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


  Hmmm, any similarities ...?

lol, that's a good one Cheesy

Though these example bubble charts also come in flavors Wink

But point taken!
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
supernode
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

No. Check out the hourly chart. The price is coiling for a spike to the upside.

We're going down. Bears are bringing in their weapons:

sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
This account was recently hacked
Aaand it's gone


Aaand it's back!!  (Unless Mt.Gox is lagging again of course!)

It keeps appearing and disappearing, someone's got a bad case of indecision today.

Gone again!
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 10
I still see the $130 wall

nvm: it seems to be popping in and out
legendary
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
wtf is this 113 wall doing here. Someone wants the price down... And here I was thinking we'd hit 95.
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